Global burden of cancer between 1990 and 2010 Preliminary results - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Global burden of cancer between 1990 and 2010

August 28, 2012 UICC Congress Mohsen Naghavi, MD, MPH, PhD Associate Professor

Preliminary results from a systematic analysis and estimation

• f burden of cancer for all countries

Cancer site data by country (or subnational) year (all ages, both sexes)

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Source'type' Site'year' Vital&registra+on&& 66,635&(death)& Cancer&registry& 65,904&(incidence)&& Surveillance& 252&(death)& Verbal&autopsy& 413(death)&

Methods

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• We estimated the incidence and mortality for 27 cancer

sites

• The sum of these 27 cancer sites is our estimate for all

cancers (C00-C97 excluding C44 and C46)

• We used a uniform method for all countries and each

cancer

• Five steps were applied for each cancer site to estimate

the incidence and mortality for each country, age group, sex, and year

Cancer incidence data (registry) Cancer mortality data (death registration, etc.)

Data obtained for 96 countries Data obtained for 76 countries

Estimate MI ratio of each cancer for all country- years

The model:

• Random effect

logit model with covariate of:

• Income per

capita

Cause specific death data for 145 countries

Estimate incidence for all country-years Estimate mortality for all country-years

The model (for breast cancer):

• Linear prediction with

covariates of:

• Income per capita
• Education
• Alcohol consumption
• Spatial temporal

smoothing

• GPR (Gaussian process

regression) analysis

• Ensemble model

Mortality/ incidence ratio (registry)

Analytic strategy (breast cancer example)

Age-standardized mortality rate for all cancers (per 100,000 population)

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Fraction of cancer mortality by site and region, 2010

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Age-standardized Years of Life Lost due to premature death (YLL) per capita (all ages) by cancer and region, 2010

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Standardized incidence rate for all cancers (per 100,000 population)

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Age-standardized Years Lost due to Disability (YLD) by cancer and region, 2010

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Age-standardized Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY) by cancers and region, 2010

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Fraction of cancer DALYs of total DALYs (1990-2010)

7.6% 9.7% 10.8% 6.0% 7.2% 7.8% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%

1990 2005 2010 % from total Year

YLL Daly YLD

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 1990 2005 2010 Cancer DALYs from total DALY % Year Asia Pacific, High Income Europe, Western Australasia Asia, East Europe, Central North America, High Income Latin America, Southern Europe, Eastern Latin America, Tropical Latin America, Central North Africa / Middle East Asia, South Sub-Saharan Africa, East Sub-Saharan Africa, Central

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