Georgia and their Impact on Trees Pam Knox Agricultural - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Recent Climate Trends in Georgia and their Impact on Trees Pam Knox Agricultural Climatologist, UGA What we will cover in this talk Review of last 15 years Impacts of the past droughts Looking at the longer time scale What does
Pam Knox Agricultural Climatologist, UGA
2000 2002 2004 2008 2010 2012
Timeline from National Drought Monitor Timeline from the National Drought Monitor
2000 2002 2004 2008 2010 2012
2000-2002 2003-2005 2006-2008 Tropical storms can account for up to 30 percent of the summer season rain in Georgia.
2011 2012 Both 2011 and 2012 were active seasons for the tropics, but very few effects from these storms were felt in Georgia. This year (2013) is also supposed to be an active season.
In an El Niño, the trade winds are weaker, allowing warm surface water to move towards the east. This causes a deepening in the pool of warm surface water near the coast and increased clouds and thunderstorms above the warmest water.
El Niño is associated with unusually warm water in the eastern Pacific Ocean, usually
associated with the coming of “The Child”). La Niña is the
unusually cool water in the eastern Pacific Ocean.
El Niño and La Niña affect climate conditions around the world, especially in winter when they are strongest.
El Niño La Niña
due to dry conditions in 1999-2000 and stands planted during that time still show poor quality today.
very low-lying areas where excessive rainfall drowned newly planted seedlings.
trees, especially in low-lying areas.
but also improve ability to get heavy machinery into low-lying areas for harvesting.
related to three multi-year severe droughts
insect pressure
increased when wet soil failed to support root systems
young trees
January February
Rainy pattern is due to a persistant trough of low pressure and a stalled stationary front south of Georgia.
61 62 63 64 65 66 67 1895 1905 1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Georgia Annual Temperature (F)
61 62 63 64 65 66 67 1895 1905 1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Georgia Annual Temperature (F)
61 62 63 64 65 66 67 1895 1905 1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Georgia Annual Temperature (F)
61 62 63 64 65 66 67 1895 1905 1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Georgia Annual Temperature (F)
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/us
Heavy rains are increasing, and there are longer dry spells in between storms.
No major shift in the storm track, so rains are likely to continue.
Winter T Winter P
Fall is predicted to be equal chances
Winter is predicted to lean warm and have a higher likelihood of dry conditions especially in south GA. ENSO is predicted to be neutral through this winter. Fall P
Across the United States and the Southeast, temperatures are predicted to increase over the next 100 years, but the amount of warming predicted depends on the particular model used. Amounts range from 5 to 10 ˚F .
http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/nacc/education/
Precipitation across the US is harder for the models to predict, and some models show increased precipitation while others show drying
intense with longer dry spells in between.
Seasonal predictions
more challenging, but in the Southeast winter, spring and summer and expected to continue to get drier and the fall slightly wetter than current conditions.
trees but also weeds and insect pests and diseases as the growing season gets longer and hotter.
to extended hot and dry spells.
damage to trees.
and reservoirs as well as evapotranspiration from trees, which could affect water availability.
increased damage in Southeastern forests.
what to expect in the future, especially since there is already a lot of natural variability in rainfall patterns by location and season.
and runoff from fields and open areas and could increase localized flash flooding in storms.
increase diseases and pests
workers
resilient (for example, irrigation or power sources)
demographics
potential for market growth
growing season and more rain
also undergo climate change
improve budget while also taking advantage of market incentives
provide fuel