GEOFFREY WEST SANTA FE INSTITUTE ARE WE SUSTAINABLE? ARE THERE - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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GEOFFREY WEST SANTA FE INSTITUTE ARE WE SUSTAINABLE? ARE THERE - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jun 18, 2023 243 likes •1.15k views

GROWTH, INNOVATION, AND THE ACCELERATING PACE OF URBAN LIFE: ARE 21 ST CENTURY CITIES SUSTAINABLE? GEOFFREY WEST SANTA FE INSTITUTE ARE WE SUSTAINABLE? ARE THERE QUANTITATIVE, PREDICTIVE LAWS OF LIFE? CAN THERE BE A SCIENCE OF CITIES,

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GROWTH, INNOVATION, AND THE ACCELERATING PACE OF URBAN LIFE: ARE 21ST CENTURY CITIES SUSTAINABLE?

GEOFFREY WEST SANTA FE INSTITUTE

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ARE WE SUSTAINABLE? ARE THERE QUANTITATIVE, PREDICTIVE LAWS OF LIFE? CAN THERE BE A SCIENCE OF CITIES, COMPANIES AND SUSTAINABILITY? WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM BIOLOGY AND PHYSICS?

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1800 < 4% OF THE US POPULATION WAS URBAN 2011 > 80% 2006 > 50% WORLD’S POPULATION URBANISED 2050 > 75%

EVERY WEEK FROM NOW TILL 2050 OVER ONE MILLION PEOPLE ARE BEING ADDED TO OUR CITIES WE LIVE IN AN EXPONENTIALLY EXPANDING SOCIO-ECONOMIC UNIVERSE!!

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Public sculptures cast in metal are being substituted with cheap plastic replicas to prevent them being stolen by thieves feeding the voracious appetite for commodities in China and India. The Historic Houses Association said this weekend that many stately home owners were putting antique garden statues into storage and displaying plastic copies instead.

1 September 2011

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Scaling of economics with energy use

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SOCIO-ECONOMIC ENTROPY!!

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NEED A SCIENCE OF CITIES “GRAND UNIFIED THEORY OF SUSTAINABILITY”

ARE THERE UNIVERSAL, QUANTIFIABLE PRINCIPLES?

COMPLEMENT TO TRADITIONAL (QUALITATIVE) THEORIES AND MODELS

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ARE CITIES AND COMPANIES JUST VERY LARGE ORGANISMS SATISFYING THE LAWS OF BIOLOGY? WHY DO ALL COMPANIES DIE WHEREAS ALMOST ALL CITIES SURVIVE?

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  • METABOLISM
  • GROWTH
  • AGING/DEATH
  • EVOLUTION
  • SLEEP/REPAIR
  • DISEASE/CANCER
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THE SEARCH FOR UNDERLYING LAWS AND PRINCIPLES LEADING TO A QUANTITATIVE PREDICTIVE (COARSE-GRAINED) CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

[ENERGY & RESOURCES (METABOLISM)

  • vs. INFORMATION (GENOMICS)]
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0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3

log number of trunks

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3

log trunk diameter (cm)

N = 55 D-1.95 N = 62 D-2.07

1981 1947

INTERSPECIFIC SIZE DISTRIBUTION All species in a Malaysian Rainforest

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SCALABILITY RESILIENCE EVOLVABILITY GROWTH

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Blue Whale 200,000,000g Shrew 2g Elephant 2,000,000g

Mammals vary in size by 8 orders of magnitude

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Age (day) Weight (g)

300 240 180 120 60 60 120 180 240 300 360

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SLOPE = ¾ < 1 SUB-LINEAR

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Whole-organism metabolic rate (B) scales as the 3/4 power of body mass (M)

B ∝ M 3/4

Hemmingson 1960

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B ∝ M 0.780 ± 0.037

PLANTS/TREES

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EXTRAORDINARY SYSTEMATIC ECONOMY OF SCALE (THE BIGGER YOU ARE, THE LESS NEEDED PER “CAPITA”)

SIMILAR SCALING HOLDS TRUE FOR ALL PHYSIOLOGICAL PROCESSES AND LIFE HISTORY EVENTS OVER THE ENTIRE SPECTRUM OF LIFE

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heart rate scales as

  • 1/4 power of body mass

Metabolic rate sets the pace of life small animals live fast and die young

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NETWORKS!!!

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Relation between number and size of branches within a tree

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INCOMING METABOLISED ENERGY

MAINTENANCE (of existing cells)

+

GROWTH (of new cells)

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Age (day) Weight (g)

300 240 180 120 60 60 120 180 240 300 360

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BIOLOGY (LIFE)

a) DOMINATED BY NON-LINEAR (UNIVERSAL) 1/4 - POWER SCALING a) EXTRAORDINARY ECONOMIES OF SCALE (THE BIGGER YOU ARE, THE LESS YOU NEED PER “CAPITA”) c) PACE OF LIFE SYSTEMATICALLY SLOWS WITH INCREASING SIZE; d) GROWTH IS SIGMOIDAL REACHING A STABLE SIZE AT MATURITY e) NETWORKS

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SUSTAINABLE!!

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ARE CITIES (AND COMPANIES) SCALED VERSIONS OF EACH OTHER? DO THEY MANIFEST “UNIVERSALITY”?

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Kuhnert, Helbing & West, Physica A363, 96-103 (2003)

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Example of scaling relationships

a) Total WAGES per MSA in 2004 for the USA vs. metropolitan population. b) SUPERCREATIVE employment per MSA in 2003, for the USA vs. metropolitan population.

SUPER-LINEAR SCALING

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Innovation measured by Patents

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TOTAL CRIME (JAPAN)

Slope = 1.21 [1.08, 1.35]

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UNIVERSALITY

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THE GOOD, THE BAD & THE UGLY

DOUBLING THE SIZE OF A CITY SYSTEMATICALLY INCREASES INCOME, WEALTH, NUMBER OF PATENTS, NUMBER OF COLLEGES, NUMBER OF CREATIVE PEOPLE, NUMBER OF POLICE, CRIME RATE, NUMBER OF AIDS & FLU CASES, AMOUNT OF WASTE,………..

ALL BY APPROXIMATELY 15% REGARDLESS OF CITY

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NETWORK DYNAMICS DETERMINES THE PACE OF LIFE

IF THE SLOPE IS < 1 PACE OF LIFE SLOWS DOWN IF THE SLOPE IS > 1 PACE OF LIFE SPEEDS UP

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Pace of biological life vs. Pace of social life

Heart Rate vs. Body Size Walking Speed vs. Population Size

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FINANCIAL MARKETS, ECONOMIES, GLOBAL WARMING, ENVIRONMENT, URBANISATION, HEALTH, CRIME, POLLUTION,………. ARE NOT INDEPENDENT THEY ARE ALL HIGHLY COUPLED, INTER- RELATED COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS

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Q: Some say that while the 20th century was the century

  • f physics, we are now

entering the century of biology. What do you think of this? A: I think the next century will be the century of complexity.

Stephen Hawking interview, January, 2000

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UNIVERSALITY OF SOCIAL NETWORKS (CLUSTERING HIERARCHIES)

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NEED A NEW PARADIGM, A NEW INTEGRATED CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK: SYSTEMIC, HOLISTIC, QUANTITATIVE, PREDICTIVE

“GRAND UNIFIED THEORY OF SUSTAINABILITY”

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CITIES AND URBAN LIFE a) SUPER-LINEAR DOMINATED BY INNOVATION & WEALTH CREATION THE BIGGER YOU ARE, THE MORE YOU GET PER CAPITA OF EVERYTHING FROM INCOME AND INNOVATION TO CRIME, POLLUTION AND DISEASE - ALL TO THE SAME DEGREE (~15% FOR EVERY DOUBLING OF SIZE) b) SYSTEMATIC INCREASE OF PACE OF LIFE c) UNBOUNDED GROWTH vs COLLAPSE

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Growth Equation

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N(0)

b < 1 (SUB-LINEAR) BOUNDED GROWTH

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b >1 (SUPER-LINEAR)

SUPER-EXPONENTIAL UNBOUNDED GROWTH COLLAPSE

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tc N(t) t N1(0) . N(0) N2(0) . N3(0) . t N(t)

UNBOUNDED GROWTH REQUIRES ACCELERATING CYCLES OF INNOVATION TO AVOID COLLAPSE

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SUSTAINABLE????

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Population growth for New York City

1790 - 2003

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Successive cycles of superlinear innovation reset the singularity and postpones instability and subsequent collapse. The relative population growth rate of New York City over time reveals periods of accelerated (super-exponential) growth. Successive shorter periods of super exponential growth appear, separated by brief periods of

  • deceleration. (Inset) tc for each of these periods vs. population at the
  • nset of the cycle. Observations are well fit with β = 1.09 (green line).
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UNBOUNDED GROWTH LEADING TO “FINITE-TIME SINGULARITY” & COLLAPSE UNLESS INNOVATIONS (SYSTEMATICALLY) OCCCUR FASTER AND FASTER CONTINUOUS TENSION BETWEEN: INNOVATION & WEALTH CREATION vs ECONOMIES OF SCALE

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Average “idealised, universal” characteristics of cities of a given size (constrained by underlying principles and dynamics of network structures - manifested in scaling laws) vs. Characteristics of specific cities as measured by deviations from scaling laws representing their individuality and local environment and conditions

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  • 5
  • 4
  • 3
  • 2
  • 1

1 2 3 4 5

1 14 27 40 53 66 79 92 105 118 131 144 157 170 183 196 209 222 235 248 261 274 287 300 313 326 339 352

Cornwallis, OR (1) San Jose (4) Boston (107) Phoenix (155) Denver (206) Abilene (359) New York (272)

2003 Patenting Rankings

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OUR “NATURAL” METABOLIC RATE ~ 90 watts OUR SOCIAL METABOLIC RATE ~ 11,000 watts !!! WE ARE EQUIVALENT TO A 30,000 Kg GORILLA !!! REPRODUCTION RATE OF ~ ONE OFFSPRING PER 15 years

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1010 109 108 107 106 105 104 103 102 101 100 1010 109 108 107 106 105 104 103 102 101 100

Homo Sa pie ns (hundr

e ds of thousands)

Primitive Ce lls (billions) Huma noids (millions) Prima te s Ma mma ls Body Pla ns (Cambr

ian E xplosion: te ns of millions)

Stone T

  • ols (te ns of thousands)

Iron Printing (c e ntur

y or two)

Phone T V Compute rs Inte rne t Ce ll Phone s

Par adigm Shift T ime (Ye ar s) Ye ar s ago

Singular ity is te c hnologic al c hange so r apid and so pr

  • found that is

r e pr e se nts a r uptur e in the fabr ic of human histor y

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T he e ve r a c c e le ra ting prog re ss

  • f te c hnolog y… .g ive s the

a ppe a ra nc e of a pproa c hing some e sse ntia l sing ula rity in the history of the ra c e be yond whic h huma n a ffa irs, a s we know the m, c ould not c ontinue .

John von Ne umann (1903 - 1957)

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PATRONS: NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION GENE & CLARE THAW CHARITABLE TRUST BRYAN & JUNE ZWAN FOUNDATION ROCKEFELLER FOUNDATION McDONNELL FOUNDATION