Generative Statistical Model of NFL Gamecast data 3 Feb 2016 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Generative Statistical Model of NFL Gamecast data

3 Feb 2016 Carson Cumbee

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Agenda

• Describe NFL Gamecast data
• Describe Generative Statistical Model
• Fidelity of the Model
• Demo
• Discussion

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NFL Gamecast Data

(12:57) J.Tucker 19 yard field goal is GOOD Center-M.Cox Holder-S.Koch. J.Tucker kicks 69 yards from BLT 35 to SF -4. L.James to SF 24 for 28 yards (A.Allen). (12:47) (Shotgun) F.Gore right end to SF 29 for 5 yards (D.Tyson; D.Ellerbe). (12:00) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass deep left to R.Moss pushed ob at BLT 39 for 32 yards (E.Reed). Pass 26 YAC 6 (11:34) (Shotgun) F.Gore left end to BLT 18 for 21 yards (C.Graham). (10:44) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick left guard to BLT 15 for 3 yards (R.Lewis T.Cody). (10:04) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick scrambles left end for 15 yards TOUCHDOWN. (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. C.Kaepernick pass to R.Moss is incomplete. ATTEMPT

• FAILS. Kaepernick in shotgun passed left for Moss but overthrew him.

D.Akers kicks 65 yards from SF 35 to BLT 0. J.Jones to BLT 21 for 21 yards (D.Walker). (9:51) J.Flacco pass short middle to R.Rice to BLT 25 for 4 yards (I.Sopoaga P.Willis) [N.Bowman]. Pass

• 6 YAC 10

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Not NFL Gamecast Data

This play would be: C. Palmer pass short left to C. Johnson for 21yds (E. Wilson).

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Normalized data

gid,pid,detail,off,def,type,dseq,len,qtr,min,sec,ptso,ptsd,timo,timd,dwn,ytg,yfog,zone,yds,succ,fd,sg,nh,pts,bc,kne,dir,rtck1,rtck2,psr, comp,spk,loc,trg,dfb,ptck1,ptck2,sk1,sk2,ptm1,pen1,desc1,cat1,pey1,pdo1,ptm2,pen2,desc2,cat2,pey2,pdo2,ptm3,pen3,desc3,cat3, pey3,pdo3,int,iry,fum,frcv,fry,forc,saf,blk,brcv,fgxp,fkicker,dist,good,punter,pgro,pnet,ptb,pr,pry,pfc,kicker,kgro,knet,ktb,kr,kry,lt,lg,c, rg,rt 3456,562585,M.Prater kicks 65 yards from DEN 35 to end zone, Touchback.,BAL,DEN,KOFF, 0,6,1,15,0,0,0,3,3,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,MP-2100,65,45,t,,,,,,, 3456,562586,(15:00) J.Flacco pass short middle to R.Rice to BAL 19 for -1 yards (W.Woodyard).,BAL,DEN,PASS, 1,30,1,15,0,0,0,3,3,1,10,20,1,-1,,,,,,,,,,,JF-1,00,t,,SM,RR-0400,,WW-0900,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,BM-1600,KO-0750,MB-2400,MY-0100, MO-0200 3456,562587,(14:14) R.Rice left tackle to BAL 22 for 3 yards (D.Ihenacho).,BAL,DEN,RUSH,2,36,1,14,14,0,0,3,3,2,11,19,1,3,,,,,,RR-0400,, LT,DI-0050,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,BM-1600,KO-0750,MB-2400,MY-0100,MO-0200 3456,562588,(13:38) (Shotgun) J.Flacco pass short left to B.Stokley to BAL 28 for 6 yards (C.Harris). Penalty on BAL-J.Jones, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.,BAL,DEN,PASS,3,20,1,13,38,0,0,3,3,3,8,22,2,6,,,t,,,,,,,,JF-1900,t,,SL,BS-4100,,CH-1500,,,,BAL,JJ-3900, Offensive Pass Interference,2,,D,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,BM-1600,KO-0750,MB-2400,MY-0100,MO-0200 3456,562589,(13:18) S.Koch punts 49 yards to DEN 23, Center-M.Cox, out of bounds.,DEN,BAL,PUNT, 0,8,1,13,18,0,0,3,3,4,2,28,2,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,SK-0600,49,49,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 3456,562590,(13:10) (Shotgun) P.Manning pass incomplete short right to J.Thomas (J.Ihedigbo).,DEN,BAL,PASS, 1,5,1,13,10,0,0,3,3,1,10,23,2,,,,t,,,,,,,,PM-02,0,,,SR,JT-2000,JI-0200,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,RC-1200,ZB-0100,MR-0100,LV-0100,OF- 0100 3456,562591,(13:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) K.Moreno right guard to DEN 24 for 1 yard (T.Suggs; J.Bynes).,DEN,BAL,RUSH, 2,40,1,13,5,0,0,3,3,2,10,23,2,1,,,t,t,,KM-2900,,RG,TS-3500,JB-8700,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,RC-1200,ZB-0100,MR-0100,LV-0100,OF- 0100

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Generative Model

Game State (Play Decision) Play Execution (yds gained) Game State update (football logic)

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What is “Game State”

The Offense (like Baltimore) The Down (1st, 2nd..) Yds for 1st Down (10yds) Yds for Touchdown (80 yds) Time Left in Game (2400 seconds) Point Differential ( -7pts/relative to offense) Forms a vector: 10yds,80yds,2400,-7

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What is “Game State”

Vectors per Offense Down # Offense Down 545 SEA 1 400 SEA 2 273 SEA 3 153 SEA 4

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Search over past game states for play decision

Find the closest play decision for a given game state Find the closest “play” 7 Running plays (rle,rlt,rlg,rupm,rrg,rrt,rre) 6 Passing plays (psl,psm,psr,pdl,pdm,pdr) Fg/Punt

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Play Execution

Draw evenly from offense’s play history or defense’ s play history Given Baltimore Run up the middle

number of times yds gained 1

• 1

8 11 1 8 2 8 3 5 4 5 5 1 6 2 7 5 9 1 12 1 16 2 41

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Play Execution

Apply probabilities for turnovers

• Fumbles recovered
• Pass interceptions

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Model Fidelity (things included)

• Generic Punt
• Rush plays with direction
• Pass plays with direction
• FG probabilities
• extra point is automatic
• interception probabilities
• fumble recovery probabilities
• halftime possesion switch

13

Model Fidelity (things not included)

• Overtime rules
• nside kicks
• probabilistic punts
• common penalties
• rare penalties
• sacks (but are implied by passing yardage)
• 2 point conversion
• probabilistic kick returns
• individual players
• decision memory

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Model runs (DEN SEA)

teama teamb diff pta ptb wina winb run# DEN SEA -28 0 28 0 1 1 DEN SEA -14 14 28 0 10 10 DEN SEA -7 7 14 0 20 20 DEN SEA -4 17 21 0 30 30 DEN SEA 0 14 14 0 35 40 DEN SEA 0 21 21 0 35 50 DEN SEA 7 14 7 9 35 60 DEN SEA 7 28 21 19 35 70 DEN SEA 14 21 7 29 35 80 DEN SEA 21 28 7 39 35 90 DEN SEA 42 49 7 49 35 100

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Model runs (DEN SEA 3600) ROIPLOT

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Model runs (DEN JAC)

teama teamb diff pta ptb wina winb run# DEN JAC -24 14 38 0 1 1 DEN JAC -7 14 21 0 10 10 DEN JAC 0 21 21 0 15 20 DEN JAC 4 21 17 4 15 30 DEN JAC 7 21 14 14 15 40 DEN JAC 7 35 28 24 15 50 DEN JAC 14 21 7 34 15 60 DEN JAC 14 35 21 44 15 70 DEN JAC 21 28 7 54 15 80 DEN JAC 28 35 7 64 15 90 DEN JAC 39 42 3 74 15 100

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Demo

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Discussion

Relevance to the Lab For our topics of research, what is the “game state”? For RASOR maybe it is a count of mentions?

• r is it poll numbers for political parties?
• r is it an analyst judgement over time?