General labour market picture in New Zealand Paul Callister - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Institute of Policy Studies, School

• f Government, Victoria University
• f Wellington

1

General labour market picture in New Zealand

Paul Callister

Background

 Much of the debate about welfare reforms

focuses on sole mothers.

 But that is only one part of the story – its

important to consider what has been happening to males.

 But to know what is happening to men requires

an understanding of changes in the labour market

 Changes in labour markets then flow through to

families and children

2

3 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1956.1 1958.3 1961.1 1963.3 1966.1 1968.3 1971.1 1973.3 1976.1 1978.3 1981.1 1983.3 1986.1 1988.3 1991.1 1993.3 1996.1 1998.3 2001.1 2003.3 2006.1 2008.3 % employed

Long term employment rates of men and women, March 1956 to June 2010

Male Female Total

4 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1956.1 1958.3 1961.1 1963.3 1966.1 1968.3 1971.1 1973.3 1976.1 1978.3 1981.1 1983.3 1986.1 1988.3 1991.1 1993.3 1996.1 1998.3 2001.1 2003.3 2006.1 2008.3 % employed

Long term employment rates of men and women, March 1956 to June 2010

Male Female Total

5 2 4 6 8 10 12 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Unemployment rate, June years 1987 to 2010

2001 census 2006 census 2008 HLFS

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 Korea Norway Austria Netherlands Switzerland Australia Japan Luxembourg Mexico Denmark New Zealand Germany Iceland Czech Republic Canada United Kingdom Belgium Finland OECD - Total Italy Chile Sweden United States Poland France Hungary Portugal Greece Turkey Ireland Slovak Republic Spain

Harmonised unemployment rate

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34

Unemployment rates for those 15-34

2009.2 2009.3 2009.4 2010.1 2010.2

8

0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 2001.2 2001.4 2002.2 2002.4 2003.2 2003.4 2004.2 2004.4 2005.2 2005.4 2006.2 2006.4 2007.2 2007.4 2008.2 2008.4 2009.2 2009.4 2010.2

'Under-employment' - Number (000's)

• f part time workers wanting more

hours

Thinking about changes in employment

Routine Production In-Person Services Symbolic-analytic

Mobility of operation Most manufacturing internationally mobile Generally not internationally mobile, except in terms of tourism where the consumer is mobile Highly mobile, but question of whether it needs to be attached to some geographic cluster Mobility of labour in these industries Generally immigration laws limit mobility Some parts mobile Highly mobile How earnings are set In global marketplace By internal economy, including minimum wage legislation In global marketplace Relative earnings Low Low if economy is in poor shape, high if economy is strong, strong labour law and tight migration laws exist Potentially high Level of education required Basic formal education, on job training Mix of basic and high skill High skill Types of occupations Factory process worker, data entry operator Waiter, bank teller, bus driver, hairdresser Designer, engineer, sociologist, doctors Types of industries Car assembly, steel production Retail banking, restaurants, hotels Research Institutes, law firms, hospitals

Long term changes in New Zealand employment

 Occupations: strong growth in managerial and

professional jobs but also various types of service worker – major job losses for machine operators, tradespeople, labourers and agriculture workers

 Industries: major job losses in primary and

manufacturing sectors – growth in many service industries, including health and education –

• thers, like construction, have major fluctuations

10

 Migration policies have protected low skill workers

and Australia has been a ‘pressure cooker valve’ for New Zealand

 While there has been a shift to high skill jobs,

many low skill/low pay jobs continue to exist – but, for a variety of reasons, hard to fill by New Zealand workers – eg kiwifruit picking

 New Zealand losses many of its younger prime

working aged people overseas

 New Zealand increasingly depends on migrants in

key areas of the economy, eg doctors

 Work related migration is shifting from permanent

to temporary

11

 Some of the jobs that have been lost required few

formal qualifications but had been relatively well paid – examples include meat workers, forestry workers, tradespeople, and watersiders

 Males no longer have a monopoly on many

• ccupations

 Many people work long hours, but many other part

time workers want longer hours

 The transition from school to full time work takes

longer

 More people are working at older ages

12

13

10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 Numbers

Some selected 'male' jobs, 1981 to 2006

Food Processing Machine Operators Metal and Machinery Trades Workers Market Oriented Animal Producers Forestry and Related Workers

14

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 Numbers

Number of social workers, male and female, 1981 to 2006

Males Females

15

Employment rates of men aged 30-44, 1976 to 2006

50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Numbers

Number of people in the main work transition age groups, 1991 to 2010 and projections to 2016

15–19 20–24 25–29 60–64 65–69

2008 2010 2010-2016 2003

• 40
• 20

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Female Male Professional, Scientific, Technical, Administrative … Construction Retail Trade and Accommodation Health Care and Social Assistance Education and Training Financial and Insurance Services Arts, Recreation and Other Services Transport, Postal and Warehousing Not Specified Public Administration and Safety Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services Wholesale Trade Information Media and Telecommunications Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services Mining Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Manufacturing

Change in number of jobs between June 2003 and June 2008, thousands of jobs

Government Government

• 30.0
• 20.0
• 10.0

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 Health care and social assistance Public administration and safety Education and training Wholesale trade Information media and telecommunications Mining Agriculture, forestry, and fishing Construction Professional, scientific, technical, … Rental, hiring, and real estate services Arts, recreation, and other services Electricity, gas, water Not specified Financial and insurance services Transport, postal, and warehousing Total Males Females Retail trade and accommodation Manufacturing

Change in number of jobs June 2008 to June 2010, thousands of jobs

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Jun 90 Jun 91 Jun 92 Jun 93 Jun 94 Jun 95 Jun 96 Jun 97 Jun 98 Jun 99 Jun 00 Jun 01 Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun 04 Jun 05 Jun 06 Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun 09 %

Employment rates males, June 1990 to March 2010

15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65+

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0 Jun 90 Jun 91 Jun 92 Jun 93 Jun 94 Jun 95 Jun 96 Jun 97 Jun 98 Jun 99 Jun 00 Jun 01 Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun 04 Jun 05 Jun 06 Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun 09 %

Employment rates males in transition ages, June 1990 to March 2010

25-29 20-24 15-19 60-64 65+

2008 2010

21 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Mar 86 Jun 87 Sep 88 Dec 89 Mar 91 Jun 92 Sep 93 Dec 94 Mar 96 Jun 97 Sep 98 Dec 99 Mar 01 Jun 02 Sep 03 Dec 04 Mar 06 Jun 07 Sep 08 Dec 09 %

Employment rates for males 30-44 in each education category, March 1986 to March 2010

No qualifications School Post school

CHANGES IN LIVING ARRANGEMENTS FOR MEN AND WOMEN AGED 30-44

23

Percentage of men aged 30-44 who were partnered, 1986-2006

24

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Employed, living with partner, with dependent children Not employed, living with partner, with dependent children Employed, not living with partner, with dependent children Employed, living with partner, no dependent children Not employed, not living with partner, with dependent children Employed, not living with partner, no dependent children Not employed, living with partner, no dependent children Not employed, not living with partner, no dependent children 1986 2006

The ‘traditional’ family

Employment and living arrangements of men aged 30-44, 1986 and 2006

Not employed Not employed Not employed

25

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Employed, living with partner, with dependent children Not employed, living with partner, with dependent children Employed, not living with partner, with dependent children Employed, living with partner, no dependent children Not employed, not living with partner, with dependent children Employed, not living with partner, no dependent children Not employed, living with partner, no dependent children Not employed, not living with partner, no dependent children Female Male

Sole parents Living alone

Employment and living arrangements of men and women aged 30-44, 2006

26

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 Mar-86 Apr-87 May-88 Jun-89 Jul-90 Aug-91 Sep-92 Oct-93 Nov-94 Nov-95 Nov-96 Nov-97 Nov-98 Nov-99 Nov-00 Nov-01 Nov-02 Nov-03 Nov-04 Nov-05 Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 %

'Work-rich', 'mixed-work' and 'work-poor' households, March 1986 to June 2010

Work rich Mixed work Work poor

27

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 Mar-86 Aug-87 Jan-89 Jun-90 Nov-91 Apr-93 Sep-94 Feb-96 Jul-97 Nov-98 Apr-00 Sep-01 Feb-03 Jul-04 Nov-05 Apr-07 Sep-08 Feb-10 %

% of selected households that were 'work rich', March 1986 to June 2010

Couple with two dependent children One parent with dependent child(ren) only One-person household

28 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 Mar-86 Aug-87 Jan-89 Jun-90 Nov-91 Apr-93 Sep-94 Feb-96 Jul-97 Nov-98 Apr-00 Sep-01 Feb-03 Jul-04 Nov-05 Apr-07 Sep-08 Feb-10 %

% of selected households that were 'work poor", March 1986 to June 2010

Couple with two dependent children One parent with dependent child(ren) only One-person household

…take the problem of black male fatherhood. I would argue that programs focusing on the cultural problems pertaining to fatherhood, including attitudes concerning paternity, without confronting the broader and more fundamental issues of restricted economic opportunities have limited chances to succeed. In my view the most effective fatherhood programs in the inner city will be those that address the framing of attitudes, norms, and behaviors in combination with local and national attempts to improve job prospects. Only when black fathers have a realistic opportunity to adequately care for their children financially will they be able to envision a more family centered life for themselves and their children. William Julius Wilson, 2009

Black fathers…sole mothers in the US