Gas Operational Forum London Radisson Grafton 27 th September 2018 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Gas Operational Forum London Radisson Grafton 27 th September 2018 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Dec 11, 2022 451 likes •752 views

Gas Operational Forum London Radisson Grafton 27 th September 2018 Gas Prices, Transporter Actions and Neutrality September 2018 Summary Report YEAR TO DATE PERCENTAGES AGAINST BUYS AND SELLS FOR JUNE - AUGUST (2017 - 2018) Jun-17 Jun-18

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London Radisson Grafton 27th September 2018

Gas Operational Forum

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Gas Prices, Transporter Actions and Neutrality

September 2018

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3 National Grid | Operational Forum Meeting 27th September 2018

Summary Report

Jun-17 Jun-18

  • No. of Balancing Actions YTD

76 Percentage No. of Balancing Actions YTD 137 Percentage Buys 40 53% Buys 63 46% Sells 36 47% Sells 74 54% Jul-17 Jul-18

  • No. of Balancing Actions YTD

92 Percentage No. of Balancing Actions YTD 143 Percentage Buys 56 61% Buys 63 44% Sells 36 39% Sells 80 56% Aug-17 Aug-18

  • No. of Balancing Actions YTD

115 Percentage No. of Balancing Actions YTD 160 Percentage Buys 79 69% Buys 68 43% Sells 36 31% Sells 92 57%

YEAR TO DATE PERCENTAGES AGAINST BUYS AND SELLS FOR JUNE - AUGUST (2017 - 2018)

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4 National Grid | Operational Forum Meeting 27th September 2018

UK Gas Prices

1st August 2017 to 31 August 2018 vs Previous Year

10 60 110 160 210 260 310 360 410 460 510 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 p/therm SAP SMPB SMPS Previous Year SAP

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5 National Grid | Operational Forum Meeting 27th September 2018

Transporter Energy Traded on the OCM

NGG Monthly Buys and Sells 1st August 2017 to 31st August 2018 vs Previous Year

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6 National Grid | Operational Forum Meeting 27th September 2018

Days of Default SMP Prices (SMPB)

August 2017 to August 2018 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18

%

SMPB [NG Set Price] SMPB [Default Marginal]

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SLIDE 7

7 National Grid | Operational Forum Meeting 27th September 2018

Days of Default SMP Prices (SMPS)

August 2017 to August 2018

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8 National Grid | Operational Forum Meeting 27th September 2018

Energy Balancing – Balancing Costs

Payments / Charges / Net Credit / Debit (Imbalance / Scheduling / OCM)

May - July 2018

50,298,851 1,098,905 6,650,183 44,157,296 3,649,286 10,000,000 20,000,000 30,000,000 40,000,000 50,000,000 60,000,000 70,000,000 Credits Debits

£

Net Credit £10,241,356.23

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SLIDE 9

9 National Grid | Operational Forum Meeting 27th September 2018

Energy Balancing – Balancing Costs

Payments / Charges / Net Credit / Debit (Imbalance / Scheduling / OCM)

May - July 2018

May-2018 Jun-2018 Jul-2018

Imbalance Payment £ [DCS]

  • 18,290,997
  • 13,043,299
  • 12,823,001

Charge £ [DCT] 21,658,417 15,576,351 13,064,082 Scheduling Exit Charge £ [DXS] 18,248 8,792 Exit Charge £ [EXS] 97,305 85,197 Entry Charge £ [ESC] 487,615 401,748 OCM Payment £ [TTB]

  • 1,155,777
  • 2,493,509

Charge £ [TTS] 4,540,318 877,657 1,232,208

Balancing Costs 7,355,130 1,412,938 1,473,289

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10 National Grid | Operational Forum Meeting 27th September 2018

Energy Balancing – Balancing Costs

OCM Payments / Charges

May - July 2018

  • 800,000
  • 600,000
  • 400,000
  • 200,000

200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 01/05/2018 15/05/2018 29/05/2018 12/06/2018 26/06/2018 10/07/2018 24/07/2018 £ Payment [TTB] Charge £ [TTS]

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11 National Grid | Operational Forum Meeting 27th September 2018

Energy Balancing – Balancing Costs

Imbalance Payments / Charges

May - July 2018

  • 2,000,000
  • 1,500,000
  • 1,000,000
  • 500,000

500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 01/05/2018 15/05/2018 29/05/2018 12/06/2018 26/06/2018 10/07/2018 24/07/2018 £ Payment £ [DCS] Charge £ [DCT]

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12 National Grid | Operational Forum Meeting 27th September 2018

Energy Balancing – Balancing Costs

Scheduling Charges

May - July 2018 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000 01/05/2018 15/05/2018 29/05/2018 12/06/2018 26/06/2018 £

Day

Exit Charge £ [DXS] Entry Charge £ [ESC] Exit Charge £ [EXS]

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13 National Grid | Operational Forum Meeting 27th September 2018

Capacity Neutrality Net Cost / Revenue

1st April 2018 to 31st August 2018 Revenue/Costs WDDSEC/DAI Entry Capacity Revenue

  • £293,323

Total Entry Constraint Management Operational Costs £720,247 Entry Capacity Overrun Revenue*

  • £123,521*

Non-Obligated Sales Revenue (Entry only)

  • £1,943

Revenue from Locational Sells and PRI Charges £0 Net Revenue £301,460

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14 National Grid | Operational Forum Meeting 27th September 2018

Capacity Neutrality Revenue

1st April 2018 to 31st August 2018

  • £207,241
  • £57,587
  • £26,507
  • £628
  • £1,211
  • £149

£(250,000.00) £(200,000.00) £(150,000.00) £(100,000.00) £(50,000.00) £- Bacton UKCS Easington St Fergus Teesside Theddlethorpe Other

Net Capacity Neutrality Revenue (WDDSEC + DAI) £

Net Capacity Neutrality Revenue (WDDSEC + DAI) £

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Operational Overview – Supply, Demand & Storage

September 2018

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16 National Grid

Following some periods of volatility in the first half of the Summer, NTS demand has now returned to expected levels.

| Operational Forum Meeting 27th September 2018

NTS Demand

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17 National Grid

After the volatility at the start of Summer, LDZ demand has now returned to the same levels as last year. IUK exports have been lower than last year, particularly during the first half of Summer.

| Operational Forum Meeting 27th September 2018

Components of NTS Demand

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18 National Grid

Aside from some brief fluctuations, levels of supply from UKCS and Norway have been as expected. Apart from a brief period at the start of Summer, LNG supplies have been significantly lower than last year.

| Operational Forum Meeting 27th September 2018

Components of NTS Supply

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19 National Grid

Proportionally, there has been less gas supplied to the NTS in the North, when compared to last Summer.

| Operational Forum Meeting 27th September 2018

Location of NTS Supply

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20 National Grid | Operational Forum Meeting 27th September 2018

Medium Range Storage Stocks (MRS)

October-End September for last 5 years

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 twh MRS 2017/2018 MRS 2016/2017 MRS 2015/2016 MRS 2014/2015 MRS 2013/2014

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Capacity Neutrality Overview

September 2018

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22 National Grid

2 2

Capacity city Neutral rality: ity: 1st

st April

il 2018 to 31st

st August

st 2018

Revenue / Costs Apr 18 to Aug 18 Apr 17 to Aug 17 Comments

WDDSEC/DAI Entry Capacity Revenue

  • £293,323
  • £377,412

* Entry Capacity Overrun Revenue data not yet available for August 2018 Total Entry Constraint Management Operational Costs £720,247 £2,036,738 Entry Capacity Overrun Revenue

  • £123,521
  • £1,438,620

Non-Obligated Sales Revenue (Entry only)

  • £1,943
  • £1,039

Revenue from Locational Sells and PRI Charges £0 £0 Net Revenue £301,460 £219,667

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23 National Grid

2 3

1st

st April

l 2018 to

  • 31st

st August

st 2018

Capacity city Neutra trality lity Net t Cost t / / Reven enue ue

Revenue/Costs WDDSEC/DAI Entry Capacity Revenue

  • £293,323

Total Entry Constraint Management Operational Costs £720,247 Entry Capacity Overrun Revenue*

  • £123,521*

Non-Obligated Sales Revenue (Entry only)

  • £1,943

Revenue from Locational Sells and PRI Charges £0 Net Revenue £301,460

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SLIDE 24

24 National Grid

2 4

1st

st April

l 2018 18 to 31st

st August

st 2018

Month Locational Sells and PRI charges revenue Apr-18 £0 May-18 £0 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19

Total £0 (FY18/19)

Month Entry Cap Overrun Revenue Non-obligated sales revenue (entry) Apr-18

  • £11,822
  • £2

May-18

  • £59,465
  • £655

Jun-18

  • £22,460
  • £592

Jul-18

  • £29,775
  • £534

Aug-18

  • £162

Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Total

  • £123,521
  • £1,943

Capacity city Neutra trality lity

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SLIDE 25

25 National Grid

2 5

1st

st April

l 2018 to

  • 31st

st August

st 2018

Net t Capaci city ty Neutra trali lity ty Reven enue

  • £207,241
  • £57,587
  • £26,507
  • £628
  • £1,211
  • £149

£(250,000.00) £(200,000.00) £(150,000.00) £(100,000.00) £(50,000.00) £- Bacton UKCS Easington St Fergus Teesside Theddlethorpe Other

Net Capacity Neutrality Revenue (WDDSEC + DAI) £

Net Capacity Neutrality Revenue (WDDSEC + DAI) £

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National Grid Balancing Actions

September 2018

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27 National Grid

National Grid Balancing Actions – FY17/18 and FY18/19

  • Chart shows the % of Gas Days

where National Grid took residual Buy Days, Sell Days and no action for current YTD and Previous Year to same date.

  • For same period for both years

(April – 26th September):

  • NG has taken more Sell

Actions in FY18/19 (33) compared to 11 for FY17/18

  • And Less Buy Actions in

FY18/19 (24) compared to 52 in FY17/18.

  • Overall % of No Actions day

similar (120 in FY17/18 compared to 121)

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28 National Grid

  • Chart shows the

distribution of difference (in p) of SMP Buy Prices from default SMP(S) for FY 16/17 to 18/19

  • Charts show NG has not

drastically changed practices and impacting market prices with actions.

  • However insufficient data

for 18/19 as NG has set SMP (B) on only 8

  • ccasions so far this

year.

SMP Buy Difference from Default Price

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29 National Grid

  • Chart shows the

distribution of difference (in p) of SMP Sell Prices from default SMP(S) for FY 16/17 to 18/19

  • Charts show NG has not

drastically changed practices and impacting market prices with actions.

  • However insufficient data

for 18/19 as NG has set SMP sell on only 4

  • ccasions so far this

year.

SMP Sell Difference from Default SMP