FY 2016 Analyst & investor presentation
Tuesday 15 November 2016
FY 2016 Analyst & investor presentation Tuesday 15 November - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
FY 2016 Analyst & investor presentation Tuesday 15 November 2016 Introduction Carolyn McCall Chief Executive Officer Proven business model in all market conditions Strong performance in a tough year Purposeful and disciplined
Tuesday 15 November 2016
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*Favourable / (adverse) ** Profit before tax at constant currency including balance sheet revaluations
FY 2 2016 FY 2 2015 Change* Change* £ m £ m % % @ C CC Total revenue 4,669 4,686 (0.4%) (0.9%) Fuel (1,114) (1,199) 7.1% 7.4% Costs excluding fuel (3,060) (2,801) (9.2%) (5.3%) Profit before tax 495 686 Profit before tax at constant currency 576 686 ** EBITDAR 770 940 (18.0%) (9.0%) EBITDAR Margin (%) 16.5% 20.0% (3.5ppt) Earnings per share (pence) 108.4 139.1 (22.1%) Dividend per share (pence) 53.8 55.2 (2.5%) Return on capital employed (%) 14.6% 22.2% (7.6ppt)
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*Favourable / (adverse)
FY 2 2016 FY 2 2015 Change* Seats flown (m) 79.9 75.0 6.5% Load factor (%) 91.6% 91.5% +0.1ppt Passengers (m) 73.1 68.6 6.6% Average sector length (km) 1,098 1,118 (1.7%) Total revenue - reported (£m) 4,669 4,686 (0.4%) Total revenue -constant currency (£m) 4,644 4,686 (0.9%) Total revenue per seat - reported (£) 58.46 62.48 (6.4%) Total revenue per seat - constant currency (£) 58.16 62.48 (6.9%)
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c.35% of the decrease in RPS can be attributed to the immediate impact
Turkey
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Total cost per seat bridge
1.32 1.96 0.09 1.41 0.40 0.10 0.13 0.10 0.59 0.30 0.53
HPT blades Fuel 52.81 Before Mgmt action Balance sheet revaluations Cost post Mgmt actions Other savings including lean FY 2015 Eurocontrol settlement 54.62 Inflation* Disruption Regulated airports inflation FY 2015 53.33 FY 2016 P&L FX A320 mix Reduced sector length 52.26
*Operational price increases including unregulated airports, ground handling, navigation and crew costs
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*Favourable / (adverse)
FY 2016 6 fuel l impact* FY 2016 FY 2015 Change* e* Fuel $ p per metric c tonne Market rate 415 619 204 Effective price 754 872 118 US dolla lar rate Market rate 1.41 1.54 (13 cents) Effective price 1.57 1.58 (1 cent) Actual cost of fuel £ per metric tonne 479 553 74 FY 2016 6 currency cy impact ct* EUR CHF USD Other Total £m £m Revenue 8 10 4 2 24 Fuel
Prior year balance sheet revaluations (3) 1 (5)
Costs excluding fuel and prior year balance sheet revaluations (84) (13) (3) (2) (102) Total (79) (2) (7)
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Strong cash generation
106 19 6 22 586 139 219 99 22 35 169 498
Cash and MMD’s @ 30 Sep ’16
969
FX Net interest Restricted cash Own shares CAPEX Increased borrowings Cash & MMDs post div & tax paid
1,345
Ordinary dividend Tax paid Other
Net working capital Depn & amort Operating profit Cash & MMDs at 1 October 2015*
939
*Includes money market deposits but excludes restricted cash
Cash flow bridge
Cash generated from operations (excluding dividends): £724m Investing and financing
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£m £m FY 2 2016 FY 2 2015 Goodwill and other intangible assets 517 492 Property, plant and equipment 3,252 2,877 Derivative financial instruments 98 (297) Other assets (excluding cash and money market deposits) 324 348 Unearned revenue (568) (619) Other liabilities (excluding debt) (1,124) (987) Capital employed 2,499 1,814 Cash and money market deposits 969 939 Debt (756) (504) Net cash 213 435 Net assets 2,712 2,249
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Liquidity ity is support rted by the 5 500 millio ion US dollar ar Revolving ing Credit Facility ity that has no financial al covenants or draw-stops
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£1,0 ,050 50 FY19 FY18 £1,100 ,100 FY17 £650 50 FY16 £600 00 Replacement Maintenance/other Retrofit Growth
FY19 driven by replacement expenditure
anticipated from up-gauging to 186 seat A320 Neo’s
projected to remain stable
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257 301 312 335 357 279 302 331 345 358 257 239 234 222 175 200 225 250 275 300 325 350 375
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
Base Case Contracted Max Contracted Min
Extra aircraft allows greater flexibility in fleet planning
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Purposeful network strategy Capital Discipline T
50% dividend payout & Long term shareholder returns Strong balance sheet
Supported by
Differentiated proposition
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Passenger forecasting undertaken at city level and aggregated up to countries 3.6%
Expected passenger growth CAGR, 2016-21
United King ngdom
France Germany ny Switzerland nd Italy 3.2% 3.2% Spain n & Portug ugal 2.4% 3.8% 3.1% 3.5% Netherland nds
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16 Purposeful Growth
Opportunities to support profitable growth of up to 9% per annum
Purposeful growth Disciplined capital allocation UK, Switzerland
Build & strengthen No1 positions Take advantage of growth opportunities Target specific catchment areas Invest in lean bases
France Eg: Amsterdam, Venice, Berlin Eg: Barcelona
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#1 Other #2
easyJet position at airport
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strengthen
behind legacy carriers
High ghly profit
able Profi
able
Returns driven by strong network positions at primary airports….
Purposeful Growth
The sweet eet spot is being ing No1 at the airpo port rt and No1
te
Graph not to scale
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Source : easyJet internal plan for 2017 data. Departing capacity
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easyJet’s 2016 capacity split
▪ 98% of capacity touches a number 1 or
number 2 position airport.
▪ easyJet has a high share of capacity at
number 1 positions driving premium returns
▪ Focussed capacity deployment in FY17 to
invest in number 1 positions
▪ Purposeful investment to develop other
airports to become no 1 or 2
Purposeful Growth
2017 7 new capac pacit ity y grow
th
5 millio ion n seats ts into to No 1 posit ition ions
6 millio ion n seats ts into to No 2 posit ition ions
at seat t growth
her
83% 15%
Number 1 Number 2 Other
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19 Purposeful Growth Airpor
Curren ent morning peak k utilisat ation
1,2,3
London Gatwick Milan MXP London Luton Geneva Berlin SXF Paris CDG Manchester Edinburgh Pais Orly Lyon Amsterdam Schipol Nice Lisbon Barcelona Full at peak times Constrained at peak times Less constrained at peak times
airport that is slot constrained during peak times
to grow capacity at slot constrained airports A network that is difficult to replicate
1) easyJet airports that are part of the top 30 European airports, where easyJet is present (therefore excludes Heathrow, Frankfurt, Istanbul and Dublin); 2) Based on theoretical max runway capacity at airport 3) Peak = first wave departures (before 8.30am) on weekdays in IATA Summer season or at other time of day. For leisure destinations may also include weekend peak demand periods e.g. Saturday in Geneva in ski season;
20 20 Footer box on intersect of lines line h=8.03 9 and v=8.75 with font 10pt Arial not bold easyJet Non-LCC P2P
Non-LCC transfer Other LCC
High return opportunities at easyJet’s top 20 airports
77m s seats
Capacity split at easyJet’s top 20 airports
20 Purposeful Growth
airports where easyJet hold a No1
14m Other
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UK France Italy Switzerland Germany
Country capacity growth is schedule on schedule, based on network touching seats.
Netherlands
Purposeful Growth 21
4.1m 2.4m 0.5m 0.6m 1.4m 1.4m
Build & strengthen No1 positions Take advantage of growth opportunities Target specific catchment areas Invest in lean bases
Spain 1.7m xx
2017 growth – seats, millions
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Contribution per block hour by route (FY16)
Capital Discipline Mature routes (> 3 years) Maturing routes (< 3 years) Not operated in FY12
14%
Outside top 25% then
40%
In top 25 % then
46%
54 54% of our top 25% 5% of routes utes wer ere e not in our top 25% 5% in FY2012 2012
Development of our top 25% routes
22 WACC = 8%
Graph not to scale
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#1/2 airpo port t posit ition ions % pax1 % returning urning pax pax1 First st choic
airlin line (vs vs LCC) 2 Value alue percept ption ions2 Digita ital l deman mand3 Top p rated airlin line app4
14 45 79
6 14 68
#2
2 11 82
Strong
rk and digital l offering ing Compelling ing value proposit ition ion First choice airline for a growing, loyal and valuable customer base
1. Source: easyjet customer database 2. Source: Millward Brown easyJet brand tracker 3. Source: Google searches last 12 months, Google Analytics 4. Source: iTunes
Differentiated Proposition 23
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1. 1. easyJ syJet. et.com
Differentiated Proposition
le - Industry ustry leadi ading ng app
bookings now made on mobile + 38% YOY
lanced nced appr proach ach with GDS/Aggr /Aggregat gator
/Dir irect ect API capabil ability ity
Digital distribution strategy is built on three commercially mature channels
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25 Differentiated Proposition
Driving growth in non-ticket revenue
Infli flight ght reven enue ue +31% 1% v FY15
profile
Non ticket ket seat revenue ue +9% % v FY15
Par artner tner Ancil cillarie ries s +6% % v FY15 15
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Source easyJet database FY16
26 Differentiated Proposition
Source: easyJet database
Customer insight Driving loyalty
5% YOY
make a booking (versus non marketable).
more each time they book:
We u understan and our 73.1m passengers ers:
frequency leisure travellers
frequent and valuable customers come from the highest UK socio-economic group (Business Elite)
Socio-economic profile (UK)
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27 Differentiated Proposition
12.5m passengers travelled Record 1.3m passengers in September Over 300 corporate agreements 14% increase in Business Fares Award Winning B2B program GDS contracts renewed
On track to deliver increased business passengers of 25% over next 3 years
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Source easyJet database FY16
28 Differentiated Proposition
Live or immine inentl tly y going ing live init itiati iatives es
Futur uture Commer mercia ial l Platf tfor
and the platform for deeper ancillary integration
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29 Tough on cost
Cost advantage over non LCC carriers Market share on easyJet’s network
*Capacity on easyJet airport to airport pairs (FY 2016)
4.1% 2.9% 1.4% 4.8% Norwegian Airberlin easyJet Ryanair Stage ge lengt gth adjusted ed CASK ex fuel cag agr grow
, 2011 - 2016
easyJet cost performance vs LCC’s
9.7 8.6 6.0 3.5 AF-KLM Lufthansa IAG easyJet Stage ge lengt gth adjusted ed CASK ex fuel, , pen ence
Source: Airline Analyst. Note: CASK covers last 12 months to 30 June 2016 for peers (unless otherwise noted) & FY16 for easyJet. Peer cask translated to pence using average rate for FY16.
easyJet easyJet Air France KLM Vueling BA Ryanair Alitalia Thomson TAP Monarch Thomas Cook Other
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30 Tough on cost
Up-gauging: A structural advantage
156 seat ats 186 seats
Current generation A319 New generation A320neo 13% -14%
Lean delivers sustainable savings
41 43 32 46 95 315 58
Y2015 Y2014 Y2013 Y2012 Y2011 Y2017 Y2011-16 Y2016
CPS ex fuel target: flat 2015 vs 2019
2015 CPS (ex Fuel @ cc) 2019 CPS (ex Fuel @ cc)
Lean programme
Efficient and effective cost base
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31 Tough on cost
FY 2017 7 CPS Cost saving initiatives Inflation
(inc. regulated airport increases)
Investment
negotiations and efficiencies
seasonal basing and positioning
and contract savings
management
self service and process improvements
2.0% c.(2.0%) c.1.0%
2018-19 19 CPS 2.0% (2%) - (3%) 0% - 2%
easyJ syJet et Lean
Figures are excluding fuel at constant currency
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Airport
the past 2 years
ATC issues
summer with dated systems unable to cope
London TMA
from 2015 to 2016
Operating in primary slot constrained airports
that is slot constrained during peak times
days in 2014
External factors
There is a direct link between on time performance and delays that are not in easyJet’s control
100 200 300 400 500 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Delay y Count nt On On-Ti Time me Perfor
nce
Impact act of ATC C delay ays throu
mer
Delay Count Arr 15 Minute OTP %
When en ATC C delay ays are below
abov
e 80%
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engineers and parts rapidly to where they are needed
programme to increase reliability
training
delivery of operational performance
crew to ensure sustainability
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Confident that easyJet’s network will not be affected
Flow
% of curren ent t capa pacit ity Flying ing right ghts (AOC OC) Flying ing right ghts at April il 2019? 9? Domestic UK 10% UK Yes UK – EU 40% UK, EU Yes EU – EU 30% EU Yes CH – EU/UK 15% UK, EU, CH Yes Other 5% UK, EU, CH Yes
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Capaci city y (seats s flown)
Revenue p per seat at constant currency
Cost per seat at constant currency
FX FX
Fuel
Rates at 14 November 2016 £/USD:1.2601; £/EUR: 1.1604 Unit fuel guidance based on Jet fuel trading range of $400 / metric tonne to $520 / metric tonne
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Sensitivities – FY17
Fuel requirement US dollar requirement Euro surplus CHF surplus lus
Six months ending 31 March 2017 83% at $664/ metric tonne 79% at $1.53/£ 78% at €1.36/£ 73% at CHF1.42/£ Full year ending 30 September 2017 81% at $617/ metric tonne 74% at $1.52/£ 82% at €1.35/£ 71% at CHF1.41/£ Full year ending 30 September 2018 47% at $510 / metric tonne 50% at $1.43/£ 47% at €1.27/£ 47% at CHF1.35/£
As at 14 November 2016
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H1 2017 (October 2016 to March 2017) as at 12 November 2016
H1 bookings in line with prior year
% seats sold* 40 93% 50% 90% 49% Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar H1 Winter 2016 Winter 2017
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*Favourable / (adverse)
£ m FY 2016 FY 2015 Change* ge* Profit before tax 495 686 (27.9%) Tax charge (68) (138) 51.1% Profit after tax 427 548 (22.0%) Effective tax rate 13.7% 20.1% 6.4ppt
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*Favourable / (adverse)
£ per er seat at FY 2016 FY 2015 Change* ge* Seat revenue 57.43 61.54 (6.7%) Non-seat revenue 1.03 0.94 9.7% Total revenue 58.46 62.48 (6.4%)
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*Favourable / (adverse)
Reported ported £ £m H2 2016 H2 2015 Chang ange* e*
Total revenue 2,898 2,919 (0.8%) Fuel (652) (683) 4.5% Operating costs excluding fuel (1,587) (1,426) (11.1%) EBITDAR 659 810 (18.5%) Ownership costs (140) (131) (8.5%) Profit before tax 519 679 (23.6%) PBT margin 17.9% 23.3% (5.4ppt) Seats (m) 45.3 42.8 5.8%
Cons nstan tant t curren ency y £ £ per seat H2 2016 H2 2015 Chang ange* e*
Total revenue 62.38 68.16 (8.5%) Fuel (14.22) (15.94) 10.8% Operating costs excluding fuel (32.42) (33.32) 2.8% EBITDAR 15.74 18.90 (16.7%) Ownership costs (3.12) (3.10) (1.2%) Profit before tax excluding prior year revaluations 12.62 15.80 (20.2%) 43
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*Favourable / (adverse)
Cost per seat excluding fuel £ Varianc nce at constant nt currenc ncy* y* £ Varianc nce at constant nt currenc ncy* y* % Weight hted varianc nce at constant nt currenc ncy* y* £ Drivers Navigation 4.21 0.19 4.7% 0.5%
Maintenance 2.97 0.17 5.3% 0.5%
combined with savings from new maintenance contract
Crew 6.78 0.15 2.2% 0.4%
Overheads 5.04 0.14 2.8% 0.4%
capacity increase
Airports and ground handling 15.86 (0.22) (1.5%) (0.6%)
Gatwick
ground handling contracts
Ownership ex revaluations* 3.50 (0.03) (0.7%) (0.1%)
purchased
decrease in the number of leased aircraft
38.36 0.40 1.1% 1.1% Net exchange (gains)/losses (0.05) Total CPS excluding fuel 38.31
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FY 2 2016 FY 2 2015 Change A319 (operating lease) 45 49 (4) A319 (owned / finance lease) 99 99 A319 Total 144 148 (4) (4) A320 (operating lease) 18 18 A320 (owned / finance lease) 95 75 20 A320 20 Total 113 113 93 93 20 20 Total l fleet 257 241 241 16 16 Operating lease 25% 28% (3ppt) Number unencumbered 156 114 42 Percentage of A320s in fleet 44% 39% 5ppt
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Average effective Euro rate for revenue for FY 2016 was €1.28 (FY 2015: €1.29) Average effective Euro rate for costs for FY 2016 was €1.27 (FY 2015: €1.35)
Revenue Costs FY 2 2016 FY 2015 FY 2 2016 FY 2015 Sterling 50% 49% 27% 27% Euro 39% 40% 35% 32% US dollar 1% 1% 1% 32% 35% Other (principally Swiss franc) 10% 10% 6% 6% 6%
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Reporte ted £m FY 2 2016 FY 2 2015 Earnings before interest and tax – reported 498 688 Interest element of operating lease payments 34 38 Earnings before interest and tax - adjusted 532 726 Tax 20% 20% Normalised operating profit after tax (NOPAT) 426 581 Average shareholders’ equity – reported 2,481 2,211 Average net cash – reported (324) (429) Average capitalised leases 759 833 Average capital employed 2,916 2,615 Return on capital employed – 7x basis 14.6% 22.2%
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