Futures Thinking for Food Systems Transformation 2019 EAT Forum - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Futures Thinking for Food Systems Transformation 2019 EAT Forum Side Event

Purpose • Engaging discussion on how futures thinking can help food systems change • Share ideas on food systems and foresight • Introduce Foresight4Food Initiative • Your thoughts on how you could benefit from and contribute to Foresight4Food

Agenda • Background to Foresight4Food • Your interests • Overview of food systems - discussion • Framework for food systems foresight - discussion • Foresight4Food Agenda • Break • Open space discussion themes • Take away messages

What is Foresight4Food A collaborative global initiative to:  enhance foresight and scenario analysis capability for food systems transformation  promote better analysis and synthesis of key trends and possible futures in global food systems  support more informed, strategic and systemic dialogue between the private sector, government, science and civil society

Background • Initial idea emerged from discussions during 2014 G20 when the need for a long term food systems approach was included in the G20 agenda • Scoping workshop held in Oxford in April 2017 led to support for aForesight4Food Initiative and formation of follow-up steering group • Follow-up workshop in Montpellier May 2018 to plan details of taking the initiative forward • Interest and engagement from over 40 key organisations and platforms • Pilot work on data synthesis, country dialogues and community of practice

Your Interests • Have a chat with your neighbor (5minutes) • Who are you? • What attracted you to this session • What would you like get out of the session • Briefly share with the room

Basic ic Defin initions foresight : the ability to judge correctly what is going to happen in the future and plan your actions based on this knowledge (Cambridge dictionary) “Thinking through [scenario] stories, and talking in depth about their implications, brings each person’s unspoken assumptions about the future to the surface. Scenarios are thus the most powerful vehicles I know for challenging our ‘mental models’ about the world and lifting the ‘blinders’ that limit our creativity and resourcefulness.” Peter Schwartz, The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World

Some Resources For Getting Started

Framework for Understanding Foresight

Foresig ight in in Context xt Governance Foresight Systems Thinking Human (complexity) Cognition

Deeper In Inspirations

Understanding System of Analysis - Food Systems Model Systems Drivers Food System Outcomes Natural System Human System Food System Demographics & Development Economic & Social Well-being Supporting Services Inputs Educatio Consumption Logistics n Research Finance Information Environment Physical Technology Technology Infrastructure Food & Nutrition Security Markets Laws Norms Climate & Environment Regulations Preferences Environmental Standards Policy & Informal Rules Sustainability Geopolitics Institutional Environment Feedbacks

Understandin ing the System of Analysis is Conceptual Model Boundaries

Driv ivers, , Trends and Uncertainties “Stream Trains” “Black Swans” Easily perceived drivers and Rare and/or unpredictable trends that will influence events that have a big change - direct and indirect impact

Ris isks and Opportunities Systemic Transformational Risks Opportunities

Steam Trains Black Swans Systemic Risks Transformational opportunities

Scenarios A description of how the Types of scenarios future may unfold • Predictive according to an explicit, coherent and internally • Explorative consistent set of assumptions about key • Normative relationships and driving forces. (Backcasting)

Dif ifferent ways of mappin ing scenarios Scenario Planning Guidance Note Foresight Horizon Scanning Centre, (UK) Government Office for Science

Dif ifferent ways of mappin ing scenarios Scenario Planning Guidance Note Foresight Horizon Scanning Centre, (UK) Government Office for Science

Dif ifferent ways of mappin ing scenarios Scenario Planning Guidance Note Foresight Horizon Scanning Centre, (UK) Government Office for Science

Examples of Scenarios

In Influencing Change (Theories of change)

Computational Models ls and Data Sets Models Data Sets IMPACT - The International Model FAO Stats for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IFPRI) IFPRI Datasets GLOBIOM - Global Biosphere OECD agricultural Data Management Model (IIASA) African Growth and Development MOSAICC - Modelling System for Policy modeling consortium Agricultural Impacts of Climate (AGRODEP) Change (FAO World Bank Open Data PEM - Policy Evaluation Model UNdata (OECD) WHO data repository MAGNET Modular Applied GeNeral Equilibrium Tool National Statistics CARPRI - Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact Analysis PBL landuse model

Foresight4Food Key Activity Areas Foresight Users Foresight Providers Foresight4Food Key activity areas Communities of practice 1 Existing Forums Synthesis and analysis of existing Existing Scientific 2 platforms Research and studies for dialogue and Analysis on Food decision making Systems Futures Resource portal and dashboard 3 (eg CFS / G20 / (International agencies, Regional bodies / research institutions, Bridging hub to support foresight CGIAR / TempAg business) 4 National / IPES processes GLOPAN / EAT / WEF / WBSCD) Brokering work on emerging 5 issues Foresight Foresight Capacity development 6 Processe Studies s Other / Existing Linkages

Foresight Training Workshop in Nepal

Food system foresight workshops in Ghana and Zambia