Future Foresight exercise Ben Roberts & Pamela Kandil 1 Built - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

BSRIA Young Engineers Network Future Foresight exercise Ben Roberts & Pamela Kandil 1 Built environment specialists

CONTENTS BSRIA Foresight Exercise • The Scenarios • Consequences • Recommendations for the future • 2 Built environment specialists

INTRODUCTION THE BSRIA FORESIGHT EXERCISE Attended by a range of young building services engineers from consultancies, • contractors, commissioning companies, ….. Presentations from BSRIA & 2050 group. • Discussion workshops • The Foresight exercise based on 3 set scenarios: • Carbon Constrained (group 1) • Energy Spikes (groups 2 & 3) • Resilience (group 4) – will not be covered • 3 Built environment specialists

THE SCENARIOS BUILDING SERVICES FUTURE 2020-2030 CARBON CONSTRAINED ENERGY SPIKES 90% emissions cut Phase out of nuclear and coal lead to “brown • • outs” 2030 – 50% less fossil fuels 2020 – reduce building energy use by 20% • • 2050 – Phase out of fossil fuels New buildings “nearly zero” • • Improved refurbishments • Radical improvement in energy Varied electricity tariff structure (3 – 60 p/kWh) • • efficiency 2030 – Halve current levels of energy Political instability & climate change lead to oil • • use. & gas spikes. 4 Built environment specialists

OUR ASSUMPTIONS CARBON CONSTRAINED ECONOMY Healthier economy • Increased investment in infrastructure & health care • RESOURCES Constrained resources e.g. materials, water, electricity • Waste, recycling and legislation on packaging • Phase out of natural gas • EDUCATION Increased education & public awareness • How to live sustainably • Actions & consequences highlighted • POPULATION Strict immigration • Youth migrating abroad • Ageing population, lifetime homes, families living together • 5 Built environment specialists

OUR ASSUMPTIONS ENERGY SPIKES ECONOMY Long term stagnation • Focus on growth instead of sustainability • Who will invest? Does Payback make sense? Investment in super grid? • GLOBAL Developing countries will strive towards “Western standards” with high energy use. • Emerging markets can invest in low carbon infrastructure… no fossil fuel one to overhaul • POLITICAL Scotland becomes independent; is energy self-sufficient and able to export • Focus on growth rather than sustainability • Legislation and markets driving changes • Energy requirements for landlords, new owner/tenant information packs • Limited incentives – tax breaks for energy efficient manufacture, funding local generation • 6 Built environment specialists

OUR ASSUMPTIONS ENERGY SPIKES Contd… RESOURCES Over-reliance on fossil fuels • Drive for more localised energy generation initiatives to go off-grid • Fuel poverty… lead to increase in ‘electricity crimes’ e.g. tapping of the grid • SOCIAL • Increased awareness in smart meters, and energy efficient products • Flexible work spaces – less location specific • Need for low cost care homes and “care villages” to accommodate ageing population. • New DIY energy generation, individuals spurred by brownouts and increased costs to make their own green investments TECHNOLOGY Construction to learn from others e.g. Car industry • Interest in new energy management solutions. • 7 Built environment specialists

SOLUTIONS Construction Process Construction Technology Companies / Clients Individuals in the Construction Industry Infrastructure Skills / Disciplines Finance 8 Built environment specialists

SOLUTIONS Simple intuitive design • Passive design Construction • Process Management of water • Impact of hard water reduced • Construction Adaptable & future proof new Technology • Companies / Clients buildings Domestic UPS system • Individuals in the Smart Meters • Construction Industry “Self regulating building” • Visual indicators for users on building • Infrastructure Skills / Disciplines performance Real time reporting, actions and • impacts to influence user behaviour Finance Intelligent controllers • Cloud technologies • 9 Built environment specialists

SOLUTIONS Construction Process Construction Technology More client involvement Use of natural resources Companies / Clients • • Co-located teams Fabric improvements • • Individuals in the BIM Pre-fabrication/modular ‘IKEA’ style • • Construction Industry Increased collaboration Reducing waste on-site • • Increased efficiency Changing procurement routes • • Infrastructure Skills / Disciplines Reducing costs Building MOT • • Involving planners • Managing risk • Finance Shared responsibility • Management of intellectual property • 10 Built environment specialists

SOLUTIONS Multi-discipline more common • Construction Broader knowledge • Process Engineers lead rather than Architects • Leading by example • Construction Technology Encouraging openness and feedback • Companies / Clients Team working • Improved Client awareness • Individuals in the Frameworks / Partnerships Construction Industry • Broader services • Exchange programs with designers & • Infrastructure Skills / Disciplines installers Hands-on experience • Finance Flexible working – non-location • specific Stronger FM involvement • 11 Built environment specialists

SOLUTIONS Construction Move from capital cost to life cycle costs • Process Private investment in micro-renewables • Community funded schemes • Construction Technology Incentive schemes • Companies / Clients Council tax banding based on building efficiency • Reduce imported energy resources Individuals in the • Oil companies moving into alternative industries Construction Industry • Infrastructure Skills / Disciplines Finance 12 Built environment specialists

SOLUTIONS Construction Closely controlled HV grid • Process Energy centres serving communities • High rise, multi-use developments • Construction Technology Combined heating & cooling district • Companies / Clients systems Individuals in the Energy storage • Construction Industry Lifetime homes • Education / awareness • Infrastructure Legislation drivers Skills / Disciplines • Finance 13 Built environment specialists

SOLUTIONS Construction Process Construction Broader skill set Technology Companies / Clients Flexible Working Individuals in the Multi-lingual Construction Industry Infrastructure Skills / Disciplines Finance Working in different Sharing & Openness cultures 14 Built environment specialists

SUMMARY Key predictions (Scenarios & consequences) • Limited fossil fuel supplies • Energy prices to increase and be unpredictable • Uncertain view of economy • Developing countries bring money to new technology • Flexible working / workplaces • More reuse and recycling of materials • Passive design • Modular construction • Main areas for focus / development (Solutions) • Reduce energy usage • Simple passive and sustainable designs • Tighter legislation • Educating the public and landlords • Building communities and involving the public • Utilising new technologies and processes e.g. BIM, pre-fabrication • 15 Built environment specialists

THE BSRIA YEN FORESIGHT EXERCISE 16 Built environment specialists