Future Foresight exercise Ben Roberts & Pamela Kandil 1 Built - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Future Foresight exercise Ben Roberts & Pamela Kandil 1 Built - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

BSRIA Young Engineers Network Future Foresight exercise Ben Roberts & Pamela Kandil 1 Built environment specialists CONTENTS BSRIA Foresight Exercise The Scenarios Consequences Recommendations for the future 2


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Built environment specialists

Ben Roberts & Pamela Kandil

BSRIA Young Engineers Network

Future Foresight exercise

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Built environment specialists

CONTENTS

  • BSRIA Foresight Exercise
  • The Scenarios
  • Consequences
  • Recommendations for the future
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Built environment specialists

INTRODUCTION

THE BSRIA FORESIGHT EXERCISE

  • Attended by a range of young building services engineers from consultancies,

contractors, commissioning companies, …..

  • Presentations from BSRIA & 2050 group.
  • Discussion workshops
  • The Foresight exercise based on 3 set scenarios:
  • Carbon Constrained

(group 1)

  • Energy Spikes

(groups 2 & 3)

  • Resilience

(group 4) – will not be covered

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Built environment specialists

THE SCENARIOS BUILDING SERVICES FUTURE 2020-2030

CARBON CONSTRAINED ENERGY SPIKES

  • 90% emissions cut
  • Phase out of nuclear and coal lead to “brown
  • uts”
  • 2030 – 50% less fossil fuels
  • 2050 – Phase out of fossil fuels
  • 2020 – reduce building energy use by 20%
  • New buildings “nearly zero”
  • Improved refurbishments
  • Radical improvement in energy

efficiency

  • Varied electricity tariff structure (3 – 60 p/kWh)
  • 2030 – Halve current levels of energy

use.

  • Political instability & climate change lead to oil

& gas spikes.

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Built environment specialists

OUR ASSUMPTIONS CARBON CONSTRAINED

ECONOMY

  • Healthier economy
  • Increased investment in infrastructure & health care

RESOURCES

  • Constrained resources e.g. materials, water, electricity
  • Waste, recycling and legislation on packaging
  • Phase out of natural gas

EDUCATION

  • Increased education & public awareness
  • How to live sustainably
  • Actions & consequences highlighted

POPULATION

  • Strict immigration
  • Youth migrating abroad
  • Ageing population, lifetime homes, families living together
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Built environment specialists

OUR ASSUMPTIONS ENERGY SPIKES

ECONOMY

  • Long term stagnation
  • Focus on growth instead of sustainability
  • Who will invest? Does Payback make sense? Investment in super grid?

GLOBAL

  • Developing countries will strive towards “Western standards” with high energy use.
  • Emerging markets can invest in low carbon infrastructure… no fossil fuel one to overhaul

POLITICAL

  • Scotland becomes independent; is energy self-sufficient and able to export
  • Focus on growth rather than sustainability
  • Legislation and markets driving changes
  • Energy requirements for landlords, new owner/tenant information packs
  • Limited incentives – tax breaks for energy efficient manufacture, funding local generation
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Built environment specialists RESOURCES

  • Over-reliance on fossil fuels
  • Drive for more localised energy generation initiatives to go off-grid
  • Fuel poverty… lead to increase in ‘electricity crimes’ e.g. tapping of the grid

SOCIAL

  • Increased awareness in smart meters, and energy efficient products
  • Flexible work spaces – less location specific
  • Need for low cost care homes and “care villages” to accommodate ageing population.
  • New DIY energy generation, individuals spurred by brownouts and increased costs to make their
  • wn green investments

TECHNOLOGY

  • Construction to learn from others e.g. Car industry
  • Interest in new energy management solutions.

OUR ASSUMPTIONS ENERGY SPIKES Contd…

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Built environment specialists

SOLUTIONS

Technology Construction Process Skills / Disciplines Finance Infrastructure Construction Companies / Clients Individuals in the Construction Industry

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Built environment specialists

SOLUTIONS

Technology Construction Process Skills / Disciplines Finance Infrastructure Construction Companies / Clients Individuals in the Construction Industry

  • Simple intuitive design
  • Passive design
  • Management of water
  • Impact of hard water reduced
  • Adaptable & future proof new

buildings

  • Domestic UPS system
  • Smart Meters
  • “Self regulating building”
  • Visual indicators for users on building

performance

  • Real time reporting, actions and

impacts to influence user behaviour

  • Intelligent controllers
  • Cloud technologies
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Built environment specialists

SOLUTIONS

Construction Process Technology Skills / Disciplines Finance Infrastructure Construction Companies / Clients Individuals in the Construction Industry

  • More client involvement
  • Co-located teams
  • BIM
  • Increased collaboration
  • Increased efficiency
  • Reducing costs
  • Involving planners
  • Managing risk
  • Shared responsibility
  • Management of intellectual property
  • Use of natural resources
  • Fabric improvements
  • Pre-fabrication/modular ‘IKEA’ style
  • Reducing waste on-site
  • Changing procurement routes
  • Building MOT
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Built environment specialists

SOLUTIONS

Technology Construction Process Skills / Disciplines Finance Infrastructure Construction Companies / Clients Individuals in the Construction Industry

  • Multi-discipline more common
  • Broader knowledge
  • Engineers lead rather than Architects
  • Leading by example
  • Encouraging openness and feedback
  • Team working
  • Improved Client awareness
  • Frameworks / Partnerships
  • Broader services
  • Exchange programs with designers &

installers

  • Hands-on experience
  • Flexible working – non-location

specific

  • Stronger FM involvement
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Built environment specialists

SOLUTIONS

Technology Construction Process Skills / Disciplines Finance Infrastructure Construction Companies / Clients Individuals in the Construction Industry

  • Move from capital cost to life cycle costs
  • Private investment in micro-renewables
  • Community funded schemes
  • Incentive schemes
  • Council tax banding based on building efficiency
  • Reduce imported energy resources
  • Oil companies moving into alternative industries
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Built environment specialists

SOLUTIONS

Technology Construction Process Skills / Disciplines Finance Infrastructure Construction Companies / Clients Individuals in the Construction Industry

  • Closely controlled HV grid
  • Energy centres serving communities
  • High rise, multi-use developments
  • Combined heating & cooling district

systems

  • Energy storage
  • Lifetime homes
  • Education / awareness
  • Legislation drivers
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Built environment specialists

SOLUTIONS

Technology Construction Process Skills / Disciplines Finance Infrastructure Construction Companies / Clients Individuals in the Construction Industry Multi-lingual Flexible Working Broader skill set Sharing & Openness Working in different cultures

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Built environment specialists

SUMMARY

  • Key predictions (Scenarios & consequences)
  • Limited fossil fuel supplies
  • Energy prices to increase and be unpredictable
  • Uncertain view of economy
  • Developing countries bring money to new technology
  • Flexible working / workplaces
  • More reuse and recycling of materials
  • Passive design
  • Modular construction
  • Main areas for focus / development (Solutions)
  • Reduce energy usage
  • Simple passive and sustainable designs
  • Tighter legislation
  • Educating the public and landlords
  • Building communities and involving the public
  • Utilising new technologies and processes e.g. BIM, pre-fabrication
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Built environment specialists

THE BSRIA YEN FORESIGHT EXERCISE