Future Foresight exercise Ben Roberts & Pamela Kandil 1 Built - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Built environment specialists

Ben Roberts & Pamela Kandil

BSRIA Young Engineers Network

Future Foresight exercise

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Built environment specialists

CONTENTS

• BSRIA Foresight Exercise
• The Scenarios
• Consequences
• Recommendations for the future

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Built environment specialists

INTRODUCTION

THE BSRIA FORESIGHT EXERCISE

• Attended by a range of young building services engineers from consultancies,

contractors, commissioning companies, …..

• Presentations from BSRIA & 2050 group.
• Discussion workshops
• The Foresight exercise based on 3 set scenarios:
• Carbon Constrained

(group 1)

• Energy Spikes

(groups 2 & 3)

• Resilience

(group 4) – will not be covered

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Built environment specialists

THE SCENARIOS BUILDING SERVICES FUTURE 2020-2030

CARBON CONSTRAINED ENERGY SPIKES

• 90% emissions cut
• Phase out of nuclear and coal lead to “brown
• uts”
• 2030 – 50% less fossil fuels
• 2050 – Phase out of fossil fuels
• 2020 – reduce building energy use by 20%
• New buildings “nearly zero”
• Improved refurbishments
• Radical improvement in energy

efficiency

• Varied electricity tariff structure (3 – 60 p/kWh)
• 2030 – Halve current levels of energy

use.

• Political instability & climate change lead to oil

& gas spikes.

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OUR ASSUMPTIONS CARBON CONSTRAINED

ECONOMY

• Healthier economy
• Increased investment in infrastructure & health care

RESOURCES

• Constrained resources e.g. materials, water, electricity
• Waste, recycling and legislation on packaging
• Phase out of natural gas

EDUCATION

• Increased education & public awareness
• How to live sustainably
• Actions & consequences highlighted

POPULATION

• Strict immigration
• Youth migrating abroad
• Ageing population, lifetime homes, families living together

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Built environment specialists

OUR ASSUMPTIONS ENERGY SPIKES

ECONOMY

• Long term stagnation
• Focus on growth instead of sustainability
• Who will invest? Does Payback make sense? Investment in super grid?

GLOBAL

• Developing countries will strive towards “Western standards” with high energy use.
• Emerging markets can invest in low carbon infrastructure… no fossil fuel one to overhaul

POLITICAL

• Scotland becomes independent; is energy self-sufficient and able to export
• Focus on growth rather than sustainability
• Legislation and markets driving changes
• Energy requirements for landlords, new owner/tenant information packs
• Limited incentives – tax breaks for energy efficient manufacture, funding local generation

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Built environment specialists RESOURCES

• Over-reliance on fossil fuels
• Drive for more localised energy generation initiatives to go off-grid
• Fuel poverty… lead to increase in ‘electricity crimes’ e.g. tapping of the grid

SOCIAL

• Increased awareness in smart meters, and energy efficient products
• Flexible work spaces – less location specific
• Need for low cost care homes and “care villages” to accommodate ageing population.
• New DIY energy generation, individuals spurred by brownouts and increased costs to make their
• wn green investments

TECHNOLOGY

• Construction to learn from others e.g. Car industry
• Interest in new energy management solutions.

OUR ASSUMPTIONS ENERGY SPIKES Contd…

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Built environment specialists

SOLUTIONS

Technology Construction Process Skills / Disciplines Finance Infrastructure Construction Companies / Clients Individuals in the Construction Industry

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Built environment specialists

SOLUTIONS

Technology Construction Process Skills / Disciplines Finance Infrastructure Construction Companies / Clients Individuals in the Construction Industry

• Simple intuitive design
• Passive design
• Management of water
• Impact of hard water reduced
• Adaptable & future proof new

buildings

• Domestic UPS system
• Smart Meters
• “Self regulating building”
• Visual indicators for users on building

performance

• Real time reporting, actions and

impacts to influence user behaviour

• Intelligent controllers
• Cloud technologies

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Built environment specialists

SOLUTIONS

Construction Process Technology Skills / Disciplines Finance Infrastructure Construction Companies / Clients Individuals in the Construction Industry

• More client involvement
• Co-located teams
• BIM
• Increased collaboration
• Increased efficiency
• Reducing costs
• Involving planners
• Managing risk
• Shared responsibility
• Management of intellectual property
• Use of natural resources
• Fabric improvements
• Pre-fabrication/modular ‘IKEA’ style
• Reducing waste on-site
• Changing procurement routes
• Building MOT

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Built environment specialists

SOLUTIONS

Technology Construction Process Skills / Disciplines Finance Infrastructure Construction Companies / Clients Individuals in the Construction Industry

• Multi-discipline more common
• Broader knowledge
• Engineers lead rather than Architects
• Leading by example
• Encouraging openness and feedback
• Team working
• Improved Client awareness
• Frameworks / Partnerships
• Broader services
• Exchange programs with designers &

installers

• Hands-on experience
• Flexible working – non-location

specific

• Stronger FM involvement

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Built environment specialists

SOLUTIONS

Technology Construction Process Skills / Disciplines Finance Infrastructure Construction Companies / Clients Individuals in the Construction Industry

• Move from capital cost to life cycle costs
• Private investment in micro-renewables
• Community funded schemes
• Incentive schemes
• Council tax banding based on building efficiency
• Reduce imported energy resources
• Oil companies moving into alternative industries

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Built environment specialists

SOLUTIONS

Technology Construction Process Skills / Disciplines Finance Infrastructure Construction Companies / Clients Individuals in the Construction Industry

• Closely controlled HV grid
• Energy centres serving communities
• High rise, multi-use developments
• Combined heating & cooling district

systems

• Energy storage
• Lifetime homes
• Education / awareness
• Legislation drivers

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Built environment specialists

SOLUTIONS

Technology Construction Process Skills / Disciplines Finance Infrastructure Construction Companies / Clients Individuals in the Construction Industry Multi-lingual Flexible Working Broader skill set Sharing & Openness Working in different cultures

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SUMMARY

• Key predictions (Scenarios & consequences)
• Limited fossil fuel supplies
• Energy prices to increase and be unpredictable
• Uncertain view of economy
• Developing countries bring money to new technology
• Flexible working / workplaces
• More reuse and recycling of materials
• Passive design
• Modular construction
• Main areas for focus / development (Solutions)
• Reduce energy usage
• Simple passive and sustainable designs
• Tighter legislation
• Educating the public and landlords
• Building communities and involving the public
• Utilising new technologies and processes e.g. BIM, pre-fabrication

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Built environment specialists

THE BSRIA YEN FORESIGHT EXERCISE