Future Strategic leaders' Congress M Iitime Hashpornts: Aus ralia 's - PDF document

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Congress Program Secur itys Future Strategic Leaders' Friday 22 May 2015 1700-1800 Arrival, registration and unpack London Shed _ 11 of pror noung regional sta bility and 1800-1830 Pre-dinnerdrinks Outside the Mess urage innovative tlunki ng about o ur- 183 0 -1 930 Dinner Mess to foste r- ti le next generat ion of 1930-1940 Welcome and weekend London Shed MrPeter Ni chol son AO I Mr saders' Program was established by overview D rew McKinn ie I Mr Br ett eet the second core goal. Previous Bid din gton AM, Institute Fo r se two goals to become the premier R egio nal Se curity e valuable learning expenences. 1940-2035 Session #1 : Scene s etti ng Lo nd on Shed Mr Lee Cordner AM. Un iversity setting. rnvite a number of security of Ade laid e unger practrtioners and researchers 2035-2 135 Keynote Address London S hed CO RE Andrew Gou gh RANR, a t OP iCthat is Important for au. We Director General Navy Capability Representing Chief of Navy and stimul atin g. Given the range of and Q&A Plans an d En gagem en t tile tO PI CS at hand we emphasise tile 2135- Fireside drinks and discussions making it memorable for all. ateful to OU t guest presen ters and Saturday 23 May 2015 me from thei r- exceptio nally busy 0730-0830 Br eakfast Mess rth us, We also thank our sponsors. nd the Noetic Group for their 0830-0930 Session #2: Wh y are SLoG London Shed Mr Peter Ma lpas, Brae ma r ACM criticalto our national Shipbroking security and prosperity? Dr Sanu Ka inikara, Air Po wer forward to working with you ove r the De vel opme nt Ce ntre 093 0-0950 Session #2 Q&A London Shed 095 0-1 010 M orn ing Tea Mes s 10 10- 11 10 Session #3 : W hat are the Lon don Sh ed RADM (Rtd) Sim on Cull en AM , CSC threats to Australia's SL oG? Dr Sanu Kai nikara, Air Powe r D eve lop me nt Centre 1110-1125 Session #3 Q&A 1125·11 30 Coffee break (b r- ing back to L on don shed) 11 30-1230 Syndicate Session #1 London Shed and break-out roo ms 1230-1330 Lunch Mess 133 0- 143 0 Session #4. Global and London Shed MrIan Biggs, Assi stan t S ecreta ry, Depar tmen t of Regi ona l: Australia. South Eas t Asia and SLoe Forei gn Affairs and Trade B RIG Michael Mahy, Military Str ate gy, Departmen t of Defence 14 30-1500 Sessio n #4 Q&A 15 00- 170 0 Afte rn oon tea then fre e time 1700-1800 Syndicate session #2 London S hed

Congress Program Speakersand IFRS Dire ctor s Sa turda y 23May 2015 cant Mr Br ett B iddingto n A M 180 0-1900 Din ner Mess Director. Institute For Regional Seq 190 0-1945 Session #6: Bes t practice s, Lo ndon S hed Dr Jenni fer Moroney, RAND challenges and lessons Australia Brett Bief dington is thefounderof a from international specialises in space and cyber 5 partnering in the Asia- national ea Pa cific region and Q&A member 1945-- Co nversations in the b ree zeway Lon don Shed area Envir onme Treasurer , Security w Sun day 24Mal 2015 addresses 073 0-0830 Breakfast Mes s that Austral 0830 -0930 Key Note Address an d London Shed Mr Michael Pezzull o, Secretary, Q&A Depa r tme nt Im migration and He is the II Border Pr ote ction Association Tea I Coffee break (bring bac k to L ondon shed ) 093 0-093 5 co 1 11 mi ttee Sessio n #7: W hat is the Lon don Shed Prof Carl Thayer, University of 0935 -1 030 Australia' fu ture of Australia's New South Wales, AD FA scre nce. t ma ritime secur ity and SLo C (ST EM) ecu t hro ugh our region? and Between 2 Q&A Systems' global space team. 1030-1100 Mo mi n.9. Tea Mess In 20 02 Brett left the Royal Austral: 110 0-1130 Syndicate sessio n 2 con t London Sh ed 23 years of service. He wa s an I I Panel Q&A moving into capability developme 11 30-1150 Congress Wrap -up London Shed control. intelligence. surveillance. 11 50-1300 Lunch Mes s projects including the Jindalce 0 Pack up & depart and unclassified space u uuauves. He is an Adjunct Professor In the University in Perth. W estern Austral' In June 20 12 tle was aornnteo as a Please note tills program was current ill lime of printi ng - Ftittev 151' \lla)' 2015 services to the Australian space s -4-

Condu ct of theC on gress Professor Carl Thayer Professor Emeritus. University of New South Wales (UNSW) The Congress will IJe conc lucted as Australian Defence Force Academy (ADFA) plenary and syndicate discuss ro ns. The program will be broken into a Carlyle A. Thayer is Professor Emeritus at Til e University of New so utn Wales ith . 1 participants to work closely W (UNSW) at the Australian Defence Force Academy (ADFA). Canberra. He was security leaders In a relaxed enWO G educated at Brown University and holds an M.A. th e weekend include: degree in Southeast ASian Studies from Yale and a Pl lD in International Relations from Til e Australian • A series of presentations focus' National University. Thayer jorned til e UNSW in 19 79 facing Australia. and taught first in The Faculty of Military Studies at • Syndicate sessions ­ small g the The Royal Military College-Duntroon (1979-85) industry leaders to discuss a s before tra nsferring to UNSW @A D FA. He was given • Informal discussions and ­fir e, 'leave In tile national interest' to take up til e positi on We request you be at the approona of Deputy Chair of the Depar t ment of Regional Studies tha t the agenda and discussion can t the Asia-Pacific C ent er for Security Studies (APCSS). U.S. Pacific Command. Hawaii ( 19 99-02). Dis cussions off-the- reco rd On return to Australia he was secondecl to Deakin University and served as On-Site Academic C o- The Institute For Regional Security I oroinator at Weston c reek for the Defence and 11 1 a trusted environment; so all dlsc( Strategic Studies Course. the senior course. at the be st rictly off­t he­record and under Centre for Defence and Strategic Stud ies (CDSS) at the Austra lian Defence College (20 02 ­04 ). He later oirecteo Regional Security Studies at th e Dress Code Australian Command and Staff College (2006­07 and 20 10 ). Professor Thayer was the C, V. Starr Distmguished Visiting Professor at the The dress code for the Congress W ill School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University In w ashington (20 05 ) and til e Inaugural Frances M. and Stephen F. Fuller In C onfidence Distinguished Visiting Professor at tile Center for International Studies . Ohio Til e content of th is Delegate Han unlversity (2008). He is also director of Thayer Consultancy. a small business correspondence and information registered in Australia In 2002 that provides political analysis of current Security remain In­Confidence and regional security issues and othe r research support to selected clients. Thayer is writes a regular column on So utlle ast Asia defence and security colum nist Security for The Diplomat. Professor Thayer is til e author of over 500 publicauons includrng: so utne ast Given the array of dignitaries attend, Asia: P att erns of Security Cooperation. ASPI Strategy Report. Canberra: organisers by carrying photographu Australian Strategic Poticy Institute. 20 10. of til e Congress and by wearing y o ~ room. Mobile Phone C ov erage Mobile phone coverage IS 1 I 11 1ite campus. IFR S staff can point youto you can get a signal (depending on ­20-

What is the Future of Australia’s Maritime Security and SLOC Through Our Region? Emeritus Professor Carl Thayer Presentation to Future Strategic Leaders Program, Kioloa, NSW May 24, 2015

Australia’s Maritime Security

Increase in Merchant Shipping 2003-13

Introduction • Australia has vital national interests: – Respect for international law and norms – Freedom of navigation – Unimpeded trade – Freedom of over flight in international airspace above the maritime domain – Rules-based regional order – peaceful settlement of disputes

Maritime Security • Sea Lines of Communication (SLORC) – Commercial ships and vessels – Military ships and vessels • Economic interdependence – Destabilising state actions or armed conflicts are dampened and unlikely – But there are still risks

Challenges • China’s rise and military modernisation – Security dilemma • Arms build up by regional states – Military technology and weapons systems – Growth of submarine fleets – Cruise missiles • Hot spots – East China Sea, Taiwan, South China Sea

Extended Range of China’s Anti-Ship Cruise Missiles

First and Second Island Chains

• China’s military modernisation • Surface combatants • Aircraft carrier(s) • Conventional and nuclear submarines • Ballistic missiles • Cruise missiles

Underwater sensors (fixed and mobile) to detect submarine movements

Yulin Naval Base, Hainan Island

Mischief Reef

Fiery Cross Reef

Johnson South Reef

Future Strategic Environment • Australia’s security environment will be more challenging over the next 20 years • Erosion of Australia’s historical military capability and technological advantages • Strait line extrapolations of current trends risky • What are the plausible alternatives?