Future Energy Scenarios Stakeholder workshop FES Overview October - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Future Energy Scenarios Stakeholder workshop FES Overview October 2017

Briefly about National Grid… Electricity Gas Producers and Generators Importers System Operator National Grid Transmission owner Electricity – E&W Gas - GB Electricity Gas Distribution Distribution Networks Networks Commercial and Domestic Customers

What are the Future Energy Scenarios and how are they used? o Credible energy pathways to 2050 o Consider energy demand and supply on a whole system basis o Unconstrained

What are the Future Energy Scenarios and how are they used?

Developing FES with stakeholders Our stakeholder engagement this year involved:  Over 390 organisations engaged  Webinars on a range of subjects  Workshops across four locations  Continuing the conversation through thought pieces and newsletters

FES 2017 – Key messages COMPLEX ADAPT CONSUMER GAS

Our 2017 scenario matrix

Sensitivities 2017 sensitivities Consumer High EV Decarbonised High Renewables Electrification Gas

Demand Supply

Demand

Residential Heating Heat Oil 80% 13% 7%

Residential demand - 2030 Consumer Power – Total: 363TWh Total: 274TWh - Two Degrees Heat 5% 10% 20% 7% 2% 68% 10% 78% 13% 7% 80% 3% 7% 11% 11% 7% Total: 362TWh 7% 75% 79% Steady State – Total: 360TWh Total: 337TWh - Slow Progression Electricity Oil Heat pumps Gas

Demand T r a t n a s e p H o r t P r o e w

Number of EVs - 2030 Consumer Power Two Degrees Transport 3.3m 9.3m 100K 1.9m 5.1m Steady State Slow Progression

Total electricity demand for EVs Transport 50 40 TWh 30 20 10 0 2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Two Degrees Slow Progression Steady State Consumer Power

Demand T r a t n a s e p H o r t P r o e w

Power 5W 10W 60W

TV Pickups above 500MW Power 2006 523 63 2016

Effects of Smart technology and Consumer Choice Power 29GW 24GW 63GW With consumer 2017 Unconstrained 2050 engagement 59GW 24GW 48GW

Total Annual Electricity Demand Electricity 450 400 TWh 350 300 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Two Degrees Slow Progression

Supply

52% Greenest summer ever

Installed capacities type - 2030 Consumer Power – Total: 150GW Total: 147GW - Two Degrees Electricity 6% 6% 11% 13% 3% 6% 57% 53% 28% 19% 4% 9% 33 % 50 % 4% 5% 5% 8% 11% 1% 3% 44% 55% 25% 41% Steady State – Total: 116GW Total: 132GW - Slow Progression Thermal Renewables Nuclear Interconnectors Storage

Installed capacities location - 2030 Consumer Power – Total: 150GW Total: 147GW - Two Degrees Electricity 36% 64% 46% 56% Distribution Transmission Distribution Transmission 27% 73% Total: 100GW 34% 66% 41% 59% Distribution Transmission Distribution Transmission Steady State – Total: 116GW Total: 132GW - Slow Progression

Supply

St Fergus Gas Teesside Barrow Easington Burton Point Theddlethorpe Bacton Milford Isle of Grain Haven

Distributed gas potential - 2030 Consumer Power – Total: 968TWh Total: 671 TWh - Two Degrees Gas 97% 44% 56% 3% 8% 92% Transmission Distribution Transmission Distribution Distribution Transmission 100% Transmission 0.2% Distribution Total: 923Twh 98% 2% 15% 85% Transmission Distribution Distribution Transmission Steady State – Total: 968TWh Total: 737 TWh - Slow Progression

Indigenous Supply - 2050 Consumer Power Two Degrees Gas Imported gas 51% Imported gas 87% Indigenous gas 49% Indigenous gas 55% 13% 45% Imported gas 79% Imported gas 93% Indigenous gas 21% Indigenous gas 7% Steady State Slow Progression