Future Energy Scenarios Stakeholder workshop FES Overview October - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Future Energy Scenarios Stakeholder workshop FES Overview October 2017 Briefly about National Grid Electricity Gas Producers and Generators Importers System Operator National Grid Transmission owner Electricity E&W
October 2017
Briefly about National Grid…
Electricity Generators Gas Producers and Importers National Grid Transmission owner Electricity – E&W Gas - GB
Commercial and Domestic Customers Electricity Distribution Networks Gas Distribution Networks
What are the Future Energy Scenarios and how are they used?
What are the Future Energy Scenarios and how are they used?
Our stakeholder engagement this year involved:
through thought pieces and newsletters
Our 2017 scenario matrix
Decarbonised Gas High Electrification Consumer Renewables High EV
2017 sensitivities
Heat
7% 80% 13%
Consumer Power – Total: 363TWh Steady State – Total: 360TWh Total: 337TWh - Slow Progression Total: 274TWh - Two Degrees
Heat
Gas
Electricity Oil Heat pumps
80% 13% 7% 10% 5% 78% 7% 75% 11% 7% 7% 79% 7% 11% 3% 20% 68% 2% 10%
Total: 362TWh
H e a t T r a n s p
t P
e r
Consumer Power Steady State Slow Progression Two Degrees
Transport
Transport
10 20 30 40 50 2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
TWh
Two Degrees Slow Progression Steady State Consumer Power
H e a t T r a n s p
t P
e r
Power
Power
2017
Power
With consumer engagement
48GW 29GW 24GW 24GW
Unconstrained 2050
63GW 59GW
300 350 400 450 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 TWh
Two Degrees Slow Progression
Electricity
Electricity
Thermal Renewables Nuclear Interconnectors Storage
19% 6% 13% 6% 57% 25% 3% 11% 5% 55% 41% 1% 8% 5% 44% 28% 3% 6% 11% 53%
33 % 4% 50 % 9% 4%
Consumer Power – Total: 150GW Steady State – Total: 116GW Total: 132GW - Slow Progression Total: 147GW - Two Degrees
Consumer Power – Total: 150GW Steady State – Total: 116GW Total: 132GW - Slow Progression Total: 147GW - Two Degrees
Electricity
36%
Distribution
64%
Transmission
34%
Distribution
66%
Transmission
27% 73% 41%
Distribution
59%
Transmission
Total: 100GW
56%
Transmission
46%
Distribution
Bacton Isle of Grain Theddlethorpe Easington Milford Haven Teesside Barrow Burton Point St Fergus
Gas
Consumer Power – Total: 968TWh Steady State – Total: 968TWh Total: 737 TWh - Slow Progression Total: 671 TWh - Two Degrees
8%
Distribution
92%
Transmission
44%
Distribution
56%
Transmission
15%
Distribution
85%
Transmission
Gas
98%
Transmission
2%
Distribution
100%
Transmission
0.2%
Distribution
97%
Transmission
3%
Distribution
Total: 923Twh
Consumer Power Steady State Slow Progression Two Degrees
Gas
Imported gas
51%
Indigenous gas
49%
Imported gas
87%
Indigenous gas
13%
Imported gas
79%
Indigenous gas
21%
Imported gas
93%
Indigenous gas
7% 55% 45%