FTI Consultings Wind Industry Expertise March 2015 Table of - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

FTI Consulting’s Wind Industry Expertise

March 2015

Table of Contents

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About FTI Consulting Wind Energy Publication Experience Summary of the Global Wind Supply Chain Update 2015 Report The Team

About FTI Consulting

FTI Consulting Overview

FTI Consulting is a global advisory firm that provides multidisciplinary solutions to complex challenges and

• pportunities.

United by a culture of urgency, our professionals are

• rganised around

the globe to provide critical assistance wherever and whenever needed.

4

EXPERIENCED PROFESSIONALS FTI are trusted advisors with diverse expertise and exceptional credentials serving clients globally including accountants, economists, engineers, former CFOs and strategists. DEEP INDUSTRY EXPERTISE FTI combine unparalleled expertise and industry knowledge to address critical challenges for clients. Our largest industry groups are: GLOBAL REACH With over 4,400 employees and

• ffices in 26 countries on six

continents, our breadth and depth extends across every major social, political and economic hub across the globe. FCN

Publicly traded – NYSE

$1.56 BN

Market Capitalization

1982

Year founded

80

Different disciplines

4,400+

Employees worldwide

700+

Industry specialists

440+

Senior Managing Directors

2 Nobel Laureates 10 of 10

Advisor to 10 of 10 of the world’s top bank holding companies

94

Advisor to 94 of the world’s top 100 law firms

55

55 of all Fortune 100 corporations are clients

26

Offices in 26 countries

Our energy expertise practices under FTI-CL Energy, a cross-practice team of energy experts from both FTI Consulting and its subsidiary, Compass Lexecon.

• Ener

nergy, P Power & & Prod

• ducts
• Financial Institutions & Insurance
• Healthcare & Life Sciences
• Real Estate
• Retail & Consumer
• Telecom, Media & Technology

FTI Clean Tech Practice Overview

Clean Tech Energy Services

FTI Consulting has completed over 25 engagements in the last 3 years, supporting the entire clean tech value chain, with experience in the Wind, Solar, and Biofuels markets and specific emerging tech.

Technology

Analysis of complex economic, regulatory and finance issues to assist clients in understanding the issues and opportunities they face.

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FTI’s Clean Tech Practice supports clients across the renewable energy value chain, providing a wide array of advisory services that address the strategic, financial, operational, reputational, regulatory and capital needs of clean technology companies with a focus on wind, solar, and biofuels/biomass.

Clean Tech Value Chain

We maximize value for our clients by combining our global footprint and core competencies in corporate finance and economics with deep clean tech expertise and extensive industry contacts. FTI Consulting serves clients across the entire value chain in numerous industries, including solar, wind, biofuels, biomass, energy efficiency, storage, electric vehicles, smart grids, etc. We work with a variety of stakeholders in the clean tech industry: investors and lenders, start-ups and established companies, law firms, utilities, regulatory agencies, governments and others. Our significant network of in-house experts in clean tech and adjacent industries allows us to assemble teams with skill sets that match the opportunity and deliver success for our clients.

FTI has experience addressing the challenges currently facing clean tech companies which include:

Reliance on supportive government policy incentives, Development of new technologies and entering new markets, Excess and idled plant capacity, and The global commoditization and cheap natural gas alternatives, among others.

Raw Materials and Machinery Design and Development Equipment Manufacturers Construction and Installation Plant Developers and Operators

FTI Clean Tech Practice Overview

Clean Tech Energy Services

6 Restructuring

• Distressed &

Turnaround Advisory

• CRO
• Business plan review
• Lender negotiations

Interim Management

• Interim management

(COO, CEO, CFO)

• Business

Transformation

• Financial modeling

and planning

• Treasury and risk

management

• Cash projections
• Operations and

metrics

• Working capital

management

Transaction Advisory & Due Diligence

• M&A /Transaction

Support

• Market Entry/Exit

Strategy

• Due Diligence –

technical & financial

• Tax Advisory
• Post Acquisition

Dispute Advisory

• Merger Integration

FTICA

• M&A Buy-Side

Services

• M&A Sell-Side

Services

• Valuation and

Opinions

• Private Placements
• Strategic Alternatives

Business Plan & Strategy

• O&M strategy
• Technical &

commercial plant assessment

• Resource, Technology

& Market Assessment

• Supply chain

evaluation & development

• Business Model

Evaluation & Development

• Power Market Price

Forecasts

Regulatory & Litigation

• Policy Evaluation
• Litigation
• Dispute Resolution

Corporate Finance & Restructuring Economic Consulting Forensic & Litigation Consulting

Contractual dispute for gearbox supply with $100m at stake. Expert witness support delivering expert

• pinion.

Commercial wind turbine dispute with $60m at stake. Expert witness in technical dispute for wind turbine OEM. Developed offshore S vs D analysis & supply chain strategy Technical expert for offshore wind supply chain and manufacturing development report

Wind P Power P Plants Supply C ly Contractual l Disput ute $ e $300m a 0m at stake ke Due D e Diligenc ence o e on

• n
• ne of
• f E

Europe’s large gest develo lopers

Performed technical and financial due diligence for developer with wind, solar, biomass, and hydro plants to secure a €75m loan

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Relevant Wind Energy Experience

The FTI-CL Energy Team has advised numerous stakeholders across the energy value chain

Due diligence in Tennet

• ffshore transmission

assets Competitive analysis and strategic supply chain review

Note: Some cases were serviced by FTI team members while with previous firms.

Global evaluation of

• ffshore wind shipping
• pportunity

Financial Advisor to the Secured Lenders Rotor blade assessment including review of Multi- MW blade technologies, competitive landscape Evaluation of the wind gearbox supply chain and provided investment guide Expert witness support delivering expert opinion. Settlement reached in favour of client Tax Advisor to the Company

Acquisition

• ns Holdings

Company i y in Abu D Dhabi

Prepared the market due diligence for a large Chinese wind turbine vendor to support its IPO Due diligence on global wind castings supply chain for a leading Asian foundry

Leadin ing European U Utili lity Large ge Japanes nese e Equipment ment Manufacturer

Relevant Wind Energy Experience (Continued)

The FTI-CL Energy Team has advised numerous stakeholders across the energy value chain

$53M 3M D Devel eloper er and C Construction o

• f

Rene enewable E Ener nergy and P Power Generation

• n Projects

Financial Advisor to the Company Financial Advisor to the Lender Interim Chief Financial Officer & CRO

Photov

• vol
• ltaic

Prod

• ducts

Manufacturer

Transaction Advisor to the Investor Financial Advisor to the Company Financial Advisor to the Lender Financial Advisor to the Lending Syndicate

Hybrid C d Co- Generation

• n,

Photov

• vol
• ltaic a

and Conventional F l Fuel l Generation P Platform Solution

• ns C

Company

Chief Restructuring Officer

$3B Multi-Utility Pr Provi vider a and Renew ewable e Energy Se Serv rvices Company

Transaction Advisor to the Lender Chief Restructuring Officer Pre- and post-bankruptcy filing crisis management / Sell-Side Investment Banking Services to the Company

8 Acquisition

• n o
• f S

Solar Business

Technical and Financial Due Diligence for acquisition of solar business in Southern Europe Financial Advisor to the Company Financial Advisor to the Company Financial Advisor to the Official Committee of Unsecured Creditors

Wind Energy Publication Experience

Wind Energy Publication – Global Wind Supply Chain Update 2015

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This report: Examines the supply chain situation for 12 key components (350+ suppliers) and three key materials (150+ suppliers), which account for more than 95% of a wind turbine’s total cost; Includes an assessment of offshore wind farm balance of plant and the forecast for the global wind market growth to 2018; and Summarizes the world’s top 15 turbine manufacturers‘ supply chain strategies and supplier relationship matrix. Link to Full Report.

Wind Energy Publication – Innovative Financing of Offshore Wind

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This report: Provides an extensive assessment of the investors poised to enter the sector and the ways they can infuse their equity and debt into this new and rapidly growing infrastructure asset; A review of the financial instruments available for offshore wind development as well as analysing innovative funding structures; and Includes global offshore wind capacity forecast up to 2025 and the CAPEX and OPEX evolution in the offshore wind sector. Link to Full Report.

Upcoming Wind Energy Publication – Global Wind Market Update –

Demand & Supply 2014

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This report: Examines the development of the land based and offshore wind markets in 2014; Provides rankings for the major turbine OEMs and owner-operators, market segmentation, technology trends, market structures and economics and penetration rates; and Includes global wind market forecasts for 2015-2029 and predictions through to 2024.

Summary of the Global Wind Supply Chain Update 2015

Overview

Executive Summary Global Wind Power Market Forecast Supply vs. Demand Overview Conclusions for Each Component/Material Offshore Balance of Plant

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Executive Summary

FTI Consulting analyzed the supply chain situation for 12 key components (350+ suppliers) and three key materials (150+ suppliers), which account for more than 95% of a wind turbine’s total cost. In addition, FTI assessed the offshore wind farm balance of plant, a summary of the supply chain strategies for the world’s top 15 wind turbine manufacturers and growth forecasts for the global wind market to 2019. The wind industry is still in the process of transformation. The slump in demand in 2013 caused by the economic recession and by policy uncertainty and inconsistency in Europe, the US, China and India have resulted in a more streamlined global wind supply chain. The wind industry saw more than 120 suppliers collapse or leave in the past 24 months, of which 88 from Asia, 23 from Europe, and 18 from North America. In general, no constraints have been identified in the global supply chain although rumors about a reduction of the feed-in tariff in China for the end of June 2015 have caused panic in the local supply chain. In fact, there is still a significant supply surplus for most of the key components and materials, but the regional distribution for several key materials such as rare earth elements and forgings is extremely uneven. Currently, there is a delicate balance in the offshore wind supply chain, but the installation of next generation multi-MW turbine indicates a potential sourcing challenge for large components and balance of plant elements. To bring down the cost of wind energy in order to compete with other energy sources, the global wind supply chain has come to terms with a new reality, which leads us to conclude that consolidation will continue, and more Tier 2 and Tier 3 suppliers are likely to disappear in the next two to three years.

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Executive Summary (continued)

Methodology: FTI Consulting contacted suppliers in the global wind supply chain via mail and conducted follow-up interviews. Survey results were then verified with turbine OEMs to ensure accuracy. Industry experts were invited to provide technical introductions for the latest developments in turbine technology. The following topics are covered: ■ Components: blades, gearboxes, bearings, electric generators, power converters, control system, transformers, pitch drives, yaw drives, brake systems, nacelle housing and spinner covers ■ Materials: castings, forgings, rare earth materials ■ Offshore balance of plant The current market conditions are driving competition in quality and cost aspects. Overcapacity is driving turbine OEMs to make product requirements stricter and negotiate longer warranty and payment periods. We expect suppliers that lack R&D capabilities and established relationships with turbine OEMs to be forced out of the market over the next two to three years. The UK and Germany recently reduced their offshore wind installation targets, resulting in a stabilization of the supply chain for these

• components. Without stable policies to support installation volumes and long-term markets, it is unlikely that supply chain

industrialization for key elements for the offshore wind balance of plant will be achieved. O&M will provide a large and growing opportunity for suppliers, as over 160 GW of turbines are now out of warranty.

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Global Wind Power Market Forecast

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We expect wind power installations to continue to grow through 2018. Annual installations are forecast to increase from 45 GW in 2014 to 58 GW in 2018 (actual installed in 2013: 36 GW). South and East Asia installed the most capacity in 2013 (about 50% of global installations), and is expected to continue to install about half of all new installations. The Americas are expected to have the highest growth rates: in 2013, 13% (or 4 GW) of global installations were installed in the region. For the years 2014- 2018, that share is expected to increase to 20% (or 51 GW).

Regi gion

• n

Installe lled in d in 2013 13 (M (MW) W) Market Fo Forecast st 2 2014 14-2018 18 (including offshore) Tot

• tal

al in installe lled (M (MW) W) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2014-2018 America icas 4,734 9,300 14,200 7,325 9,800 10,750 51,375 Eu Euro rope 11,560 12,367 12,390 13,340 15,175 17,300 70,572 South th & & E East t Asi sia 18,439 21,000 23,450 21,825 24,250 24,650 115,175 OECD P Pacif cific ic 766 910 671 820 1,300 1,650 5,351 Rest st o

• f Wo

World 636 1,727 2,092 3,115 3,500 3,360 13,794 Total W l World ld 36,134 45,304 52,803 46,425 54,025 57,710 256,267

Source: FTI Intelligence, December 2014

Supply vs. Demand in 2015 and 2018

Supply of most components and materials is expected to significantly exceed demand in 2015. Exceptions are some bearings (ultra-large tapered roller bearings) and rare earth materials, which are expected to continue to be in short supply through 2018. In 2015, we expect oversupply of rotor blades, gearboxes, towers, castings and forgings in certain regions. In 2018, we expect oversupply of rotor blades, gearboxes, power converters, pitch drives, castings and forgings in certain regions.

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Source: FTI Intelligence, December 2014

Supply vs. Demand in 2015 and 2018 (continued)

In short supply: Bearings and rare earth materials Significant

• vercapacity:

Rotor blades, gearboxes, towers, castings and forgings

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Component/ Material Overall supply versus demand situation

Rotor blades Global supply is 4 to 5 times greater than 2015 forecasted demand and 3 to 5 times greater than 2018 forecasted demand. Gearboxes The annual global demand in the next three to four years is equivalent to 65% of the current output capacity, so a low utilisation rate is expected. Bearings Sufficient supply at present, but concerns remain for ultra-large tapered roller bearings. Electric generators Enough capacity to meet demand for all types of generators exists, but the future path for PMG is uncertain due to China`s monopoly on RREs. Power converters No signs that the supply of converters will limit the growth of the market. Control systems Enough supply for the main control systems, but local Chinese firms continue to rely on Europe as a solutions provider. Transformers Enough capacity to serve the market, but higher quality requirement has restricted the number of suppliers for offshore wind. Towers The total capacities from the supply side are almost double the expected demand in 2015 and the state of overcapacity is likely to remain

• ver the forecast period.

Pitch drives Overcapacity for both electric and hydraulic drives is still expected for the near-term, which will result fierce competition. Yaw drives It is a European and Chinese dominated market, and enough manufacturing capacity is available to meet the demand over the next three to four years. Brake systems The demand in the near-term is expected to be met comfortably. Nacelle housing and spinner covers No bottlenecks are foreseen in the near future and new entrants from Asia are gaining more market share. Castings Significant overcapacity, but the geographical distribution is uneven, this is causing a sourcing challenge in the Americas. Forgings Significant overcapacity, but a strong regional imbalance still exists. Forged components are expected to be in short supply in the Americas. Rare earth materials Sensitive supply vs. demand balance, and the future path is largely dependent upon the true impact of the Chinese government’s response to the recent WTO ruling and the result of reform currently undergoing in China’s rare earth industry.

Conclusions for Key Components and Materials (continued)

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Rotor Blades

• Production is shifting from

Europe to North America, South and East Asia and Latin America for local demand.

• There are over 30 independent

suppliers worldwide, with LM Wind Power meeting 13% of the global demand in 2013.

• Large vertically integrated

turbine OEMs increasingly

• utsource blade production, with

20 wind turbine vendors retaining in-house blade manufacturing.

• These vendors covered half of

the global demand in 2013.

• Annual blade supply is

estimated at 95 GW, which is 4 to 5 times greater than the 2015 demand.

• Blade suppliers are driving down

LCOE by using advanced materials, innovative designs for the blade extension and aftermarket service solutions. Gearboxes

• A number of suppliers have

exited the market following the turbulence over the last two years, with over 30 gearbox suppliers remaining at the end of 2014, with a combined manufacturing capacity of 65 GW.

• The top 5 suppliers (Winergy,

NGC, ZF, Bosch Reoth and Chongquing Gearbox) can produce at least 60% of that capacity.

• We anticipate global demand
• ver the 4 to 5 years will be

about 41 GW, or 65% of the current output capacity.

• In response, several large

European suppliers are shifting toward O&M services to stay profitable in the future. Bearings

• No supply constraints over the

last four years, outside of an installation rush in China in Q4 2014 over rumors that the FIT would be reduced by 2015.

• The pitch and yaw bearings

sector is sufficiently supplied by

• ver 30 active producers.
• Slew bearings for 1.5-2.0 MW

turbines are oversupplied due to the recent market entry by Chinese and South Korean

• producers. Bearings made in

Asia will likely not be used in European turbines due the lack

• f an established track record.
• Main shaft, gearbox and

generator bearings are produced by few suppliers, with SKF and FAG Schaeffler capturing 60% of the global market.

• Concerns remain regarding the

supply of ultra-large tapered roller bearings due to increased popularity in China.

Conclusions for Key Components and Materials (continued)

21

Electric Generators

• 11 of the top 15 turbine OEMs

have directly or indirectly control generator manufacturing

• facilities. We expect supply
• vercapacity in 2015 and 2018

for Doubly Fed Induction Generators (DFIG) (50% greater than 2015 demand) and Permanent Magnet Generators (PMG) (2 times greater than 2015 demand).

• DFIG generators will likely

continue to be the industry workhorse, but PMG have gained market share over the past five years and captured 17.3% of the global demand in 2013.

• PMG pricing remains a concern,

with rare earth price volatility driving the industry to adopt

• ptions that do not need

permanent magnets or require smaller quantities of permanent magnet materials. Power Converters

• No constraints have been

reported, as half of the demand can by covered by turbine vendor in-house capacity, and a long list

• f independent suppliers can

cover the remainder.

• As turbine manufacturers in

Europe and America currently have excess in-house manufacturing capacity in general, they are also like to have overcapacity for power converters.

• The Chinese market has

previously been dominated by European suppliers, but their share has dropped to just one third of the market at present.

• Fully-rated power converters

continue to gain market share along with direct-drive and hybrid-drive turbines. Full power converters also make it easier to meet ever increasing grid requirements. Control Systems

• More than half of the world’s top

10 suppliers insource the main control system for their own wind turbines.

• The market for independent

supplier in Europe and North America is small, because these two wind markets are dominated by the leading turbine OEMs, with their in-house capacity for controllers.

• Asia has become a key market

for European and American suppliers, which maintain significant market share in

• China. Local Chinese firms are

expected to continue to rely on European suppliers for the next three to five years.

• Another opportunity is the retrofit

market, allowing end-users to maximize the utility of their older turbines.

Conclusions for Key Components and Materials (continued)

22

Transformers

• Power transformer suppliers are

located across continents and the average lead time is short; as such, we do not anticipate transformers to in short supply.

• The European market is covered

by leading producers such as ABB, CG Power Systems, SGB, Schneider Electric and IMEFY.

• In North America, the Xingux and

GE joint venture and HICO America are considered market leaders.

• The Latin American market is

served by ABB, Siemens and two additional producers who maintain facilities in the region.

• In China, more than 20

transformer suppliers are active in the domestic wind market, with the top 5 suppliers dominating the onshore wind market. Towers

• Market entry barriers are low for

towers, due to the low technical complexity.

• With 103 identified suppliers

globally, capable of producing more than 39,600 towers annually, there is ample supply in the global market.

• The supply of towers could

potentially reach more than 73.5GW per year, which is almost double the demand in 2015 and considerably higher than the demand in 2018.

• Approximately 20% of identified

suppliers can provide towers to

• ffshore wind turbines. Most of

the offshore wind tower suppliers are based in Denmark and Germany.

• With offshore wind projects

recently installed in China, South Korea and Japan, new entrants have emerged in those countries as well. Pitch Drives

• Electric pitch system maintained

a 73% global market share in 2013.

• Hydraulic pitch systems currently

dominate the offshore market.

• Electric systems could start

gaining share as Tier 2 OEMs are becoming more active both in European and Asian offshore wind markets.

• For electric pitch systems, the

key suppliers are mainly domiciled in Italy, Germany and China.

• Overcapacity could become a

significant issue for suppliers.

• The hydraulic drive market has

been dominated by European

• suppliers. Since turbine vendors
• pting for this solution are mainly

European, contraction of new installation in the European market and the US has resulted in overcapacity.

Conclusions for Key Components and Materials (continued)

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Yaw Drives

• The current global demand for

yaw drives is around 100,000 units, of which 80% is expected to be provided by seven suppliers mainly based in Italy, China and Germany.

• There is enough capacity to meet

the current and forecasted global

• demand. Several yaw drive

suppliers, particularly in China, have suffered from overcapacity in the last 2-3 years.

• The offshore wind yaw drive

market is currently dominated by European suppliers.

• Growth in Asian offshore projects

(particularly in China) could drive the emergence of local suppliers. Currently, the two major yaw gear reducer suppliers are Bonfiglioli and Comer. Brake Systems

• There are two brake technologies

available for wind turbines: the hydraulic and the electromechanical brake.

• Europe is not only home to the

world’s largest hydraulic brake suppliers, it is a hub of electromechanical brakes as well.

• The demand for

electromechanical brakes in 2014 is expected to be around 4,000 MW and the demand for hydraulic brakes in the order of 41,000 MW-42,000 MW.

• Demand is expected to be

comfortably met based on existing and future manufacturing capacities of companies in both Europe and China; as such, we forecast no bottleneck in the supply of brakes over the next five years. Nacelle Housing and Spinner Covers

• The global market for nacelle

housing and spinner covers is dominated by three international players, each with owned facilities: Jupiter, BACH and Fassmer.

• In addition to the leading

suppliers, a number of small and medium sized local suppliers have been identified in Spain, China and India.

• Since some Chinese and Indian

entrants offer quality products at a very competitive price, large European OEMs have recently added these companies to their supplier list.

• According to the current supply

chain allocation and existing manufacturing capacity for nacelle housing and spinner covers, no bottlenecks are expected moving forward.

Conclusions for Key Components and Materials (continued)

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Castings

• Global supply fell by 21%

(compared to 2011), but total supply is still 46% higher than the current global demand and the existing supply chain could meet estimated global demand in 2018 without any further investment in capacity.

• The geographical distribution is

uneven and casted components are currently in short supply in the Americas; as such, turbine manufacturers have been forced to rely on imports to meet demand.

• However, the two leading
• ffshore wind markets, the UK

and Germany, have recently downgraded offshore wind installation targets, and offshore wind is still at an early stage of development in Asia.

• As such, no constraints for

castings are expected for the

• ffshore market in the near term.

Forgings

• Global supply fell almost 30%

since 2011, but overcapacity remains a challenge for the

• sector. The current global supply
• f forgings is double the

expected 2015 demand.

• Although global demand is

expected to grow 27% by 2018, existing capacity levels are sufficient to meet increased demand, but strong regional imbalance currently exist.

• In considering the different

forged components, tower flanges can be easily produced and outsourced and therefore

• vercapacity continues to exist -

especially in Asia.

• There is currently a sufficient

supply of main shafts and slewing bearing rings, but the situation for the seamless rolled rings (used in gearboxes), gear wheels and rims is somewhat

• pposite.

Rare Earth Materials

• Chinese suppliers continue to

dominate the supply of rare earth materials, as the world’s largest reserves for these materials are regionally located.

• Export restrictions posed in

2009 have resulted in significant price hikes (reaching an increase

• f 600% in 2011), creating

uncertainty for the feasibility of using PMG in Direct Drive wind turbine.

• The future path for rare earth

elements is uncertain and depends on the success of innovation and policy decisions;

• ver the next three to five years

we expect the supply-demand situation will remain tight and largely dependent upon the true impact of the Chinese government’s response to the recent WTO ruling and the reforms currently undergoing in China’s rare earth industry.

Offshore Balance of Plant

High voltage AC

• ffshore stations will

be in short supply this year through 2018 Offshore sub-station installation vessels will be a potential bottleneck in 2018.

25

Balanc nce o

• f pl

plant nt Sta tatu tus 201 014 Sta tatu tus 2018 18 Comme mment Mono nopi pile f founda undations ns » Existing production capacity is expected to meet demand in the short and medium terms. » New investments have been made to manufacture XL monopiles. No Non-monopile ile founda undations ns » Dominated by jacket, followed by concrete foundation » Jacket production capacity is expected to expand. In addition, partnerships were established for concrete foundations. HVAC VAC of

• ffshor
• re s

sub- sta tati tions » Demand is expected to exceed supply in the short and medium term, partly driven by demand from other industries. » Bottleneck, however, can be mitigated by involving electrical components suppliers early in the process. HVD VDC of

• ffshor
• re sub-

st stat ations s » No expected constraint in supply due to low demand. » However, a key supplier stayed out of the EPC business due to long lead times, considerable risk of delay and overrun costs. Exp Expor

• rt c

cables » Demand for HVDC cables is expected to be lower than HVAC. » Supply is expected to meet demand in the short and long terms, and key suppliers are increasing their high voltage capacity. Arra rray c cable les » Short term relies on medium voltage (MV) array cables, 33kV, the supply is sufficient. » Constraint is likely to occur before high voltage (HV) array cables, 66kV, reaches commercialisation. Wind t nd tur urbi bine ne in installa llatio ion v vessels ls » Overcapacity for installation of the current mainstream turbine (3-4MW), but a tight balance for next generation (6-8MW) offshore turbines to be installed in deeper waters. » The challenge will be finding enough crew members with ample experience. Fo Founda undation i n ins nstallation n ves essel els » Sufficient supply at present, but constraints are likely to occur after 2020 if no investment are made for vessels with crane capacity, ≥1,200 tonnes, capable of operating at depth ≥50m. Of Offsho hore s sub ub-sta tati tion in installa llatio ion v vessels ls » Required crane capacity restricted the number of vessels. » Installation capacity is available from other sectors, but competition is expected during the booming period. Subsea ea ca cable e in installa llatio ion v vessels ls » Both cable manufacturers and specialised contractors are able to increase capacity if required, so supply is expected to be able to cope with demand in the short and long term.

Legend: Sufficient Supply Tight Balance Potential Bottleneck Source: FTI Intelligence, December 2014

The Team

About

Aris Karcanias

Managing Director Clean Technology GTM Co-Lead

London, UK +44 (0) 20 7632 5191 / +44 (0) 7717 846 696 aris.karcanias@fticonsulting.com

• Mr. Karcanias is a Managing Director at FTI’s Economics and Financial

Consulting Practice, and is based in the London Office. Before joining FTI, he led the consulting component of Navigant’s specialist renewable energy unit, BTM Consult. There he conducted extensive technical, market, and economic analyses of renewable energy

• systems. Mr. Karcanias has over 10 years of consulting experience in

the clean energy sector with a focus on renewables, in particular the wind industry, energy storage, and emerging energy efficient clean

• technologies. He has a technical engineering background with

experience in commercialising clean energy technologies. Earlier in his career, Mr. Karcanias worked for Planet Ernst & Young, and the University of Cambridge Engineering Department. At Planet E&Y he advised on large-scale energy and infrastructure projects focusing on strategy, procurement and public-private partnerships. At the Engineering Department, he worked in the Distributed Information and Automation Laboratory Group of the IFM applying systems modelling and Radio Frequency Identification technology to energy systems in order to minimise energy use and carbon emissions.

• Mr. Karcanias‘s project experience includes advising on corporate

strategy formulation, strategic market entry/exit, M&A planning, dispute resolution, technical due diligence, and policy evaluation. Aris has worked with clients across the world and throughout the energy value chain including emerging technology companies, manufacturers, environmental organizations, utilities, developers, energy companies, investors, and government agencies.

• Mr. Karcanias has completed numerous high-profile strategic market

entry and policy based assignments; is currently leading the negotiation and sales process and due diligence for two renewable energy companies; and has successfully led several high-profile disputes in the renewable energy sector.

• Mr. Karcanias has written a number of articles and industry-leading

publications and has been quoted in leading media outlets on renewable energy issues. He frequently speaks at, or chairs renewable energy conferences.

Professional Af Affil ilia iatio ions Member of the Institute

• f Engineering &

Technology Expe perti tise Renewable Energy Technology, Policy & Markets Strategy Mergers & Acquisitions Dispute Resolution Educa cation Cambridge University, MPhil Engineering for Sustainable Development University of Warwick, MEng General Engineering with specialism in electrical and control systems

27

About

Chris LeWand

Senior Managing Director, Clean Technology GTM Co-Lead

Denver, Colorado +1 (303) 689-8839 Chris.lewand@fticonsulting.com

Chris LeWand is a Senior Managing Director in FTI’s Corporate Finance Segment, Telecom, Media & Technology Team, Clean Technology sector go to market co-leader and a member of FTI Capital Advisors. Mr. LeWand is an expert in providing mergers & acquisition advisory, strategic and financial planning, performance improvement services, forensic and litigation consulting, business valuation, interim management services (CFO / CRO), troubled company evaluation and restructuring, and merger integration planning and execution,. Work has been performed for many clients in numerous industries. Within Clean Technology, Mr. LeWand has led a wide range of cases within the solar, wind and biofuels sectors. This includes Mr. LeWand having recently been the Chief Restructuring Officer at Global Solar

• Energy. With over $400m of invested capital and plants in Germany and

the United States, this producer of flexible, lightweight CIGS PV cells and modules had under-utilised plant capacity, management turnover, liquidity issues and the equity sponsor seeking an exit. Mr. LeWand led a team that took interim CRO and CFO roles, developed strategic options, readied the business for sale and ran a global M&A process which culminated in a successful sale to a large multi-national strategic buyer. Expert witness and dispute advisory services have been provided in a wide range of matters. This has included providing reports and consulting services as an industry expert, regarding valuation issues, contract disputes, business interruption claims, intellectual property disputes, forensic audits, anti-trust litigation and construction claims. Mr. LeWand also co-developed the CLE seminar, “Economic Damages, Litigating and proving Business Losses.”

• Mr. LeWand has led dozens of assignments for the valuation of publicly-

traded and privately-held companies and assets. These have been performed for numerous purposes, including transaction pricing and structuring; accounting compliance and regulatory purposes (SFAS 141/142); evaluating transaction fairness; financing, securitization and collateralization; expert testimony and dispute resolution; and insolvency and fraudulent conveyance evaluations. In a recent matter, Mr. LeWand was the Financial Advisor to the Examiner in the bankruptcy of Anderson

• News. Mr. LeWand was retained as the expert to evaluate solvency over a

four-year period, review thousands of transactions worth over $2 billion with two dozen+ entities and to consider potential preference and fraudulent transfer actions by the estate against insiders and affiliates.

• Mr. LeWand testified in bankruptcy court.
• Mr. LeWand has served as financial advisor to various parties in M&A

transactions, including due diligence on behalf of financing sources, identification of acquisition targets, buy and sale assistance, analysis of financial and operational synergies in potential mergers, and preparation and negotiation of bids and acquisition agreements on both distressed and healthy investments.

• Mr. LeWand has led and managed a wide range of cases for clients in

both formal bankruptcy proceedings and out-of-court restructurings. Related services have included development and review of business plans, leading performance improvement initiatives, valuations, liquidation analyses, competitive benchmarking, distressed asset and business marketing and sales, management of operations and network closures, renegotiation of credit facilities, company monitoring and development and implementation of cash management programs. Certif ific icatio ions: Certified Public Accountant, Colorado (CPA) Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) Accredited in Business Valuation (ABV) Certified Insolvency and Restructuring Advisor (CIRA) FINRA Series 7, 63 Educa cation: M.B.A. with honors, Texas A&M University B.S. with honors in Finance, Villanova University

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About

Chris LeWand (continued)

Senior Managing Director, Clean Technology GTM Co-Lead

Denver, Colorado +1 (303) 689-8839 Chris.lewand@fticonsulting.com

• Mr. LeWand has held officer and board roles for entities in a variety of

industries and has been retained by the stakeholders of a wide range of major companies. Companies have included Global Solar Energy; ECOtality; Blade Dynamics; NaturEner; Solar Portables; Applied Materials; American Superconductor; Carbon Fuel; Light & Power Holdings; Muscatine Power & Water; Alameda Power & Light; Marconi; Toyota; Securus Technologies; FairPoint; Orascom Algeria; National Grid Wireless; Excite@Home; UPC Ireland; Level(3); Global Crossing; Vanco; Atlantic Telecom; Viatel; Song Networks; Reach; American Fiber Systems; Otelco, Qwest; Open Range Comm.; McLeod; KMC; FDN; Xspedius; TelCove; Choice One; Cavalier; XO Comm.; ICG; Conversent; Winstar; CTC; Apple; Alcatel; Spirent; ECI; Vertis Communications; MediaNews; Anderson News; Idearc; Local Matters; Cordiant; Web Access; Boeing; Transntyx; Global VR; Elkhorn Goldfields; MyTravel; Aspen Executive Air; Loud Financial Services; and Calim Private Equity. Examples of specific roles include the following: Global Solar Energy: Chief Restructuring Officer and M&A Advisor; Solar Portables Inc: Interim CFO and M&A Advisor; ECOtality: M&A advisor (FTI was also restructuring advisor) Cross Flow Energy: M&A Advisor American Superconductor / Blade Dynamics: M&A Advisor Applied Materials: Solar industry expert for arbitration proceeding; Martifer Solar: M&A Advisor (FTI was also CRO) NaturEner: Restructuring Advisor Select Staffing: CFO ($2.2 billion staffing company) Calim Private Equity: Interim Managing Director ($200m Private Equity Fund with 20 portfolio investments); Open Range Communications: Associate Chief Restructuring Officer FairPoint: Restructuring Advisor to the $2.0b Senior Lending Group; Atlantic Telecom: Head of Operations while in UK Administration; Viatel: Advisor to the Board; Elkhorn Goldfields: Interim CFO and Board of Directors; $1b+ Commercial Printer: Interim Financial Management (backup Interim CFO); Aspen Executive Air: Interim CFO; Transnetyx: Board of Directors; and, Global VR: Board of Directors.

• Mr. LeWand worked in London from 2001 to 2004 in the Corporate

Finance Practice of PricewaterhouseCoopers, focusing on providing turnaround and restructuring services to U.S. based bondholders and banks, as well as European financial institutions, on large, multi- jurisdiction credits. Mr. LeWand has provided services to dozens of clients with operations internationally in areas including Europe, South America, Asia and Africa.

• Mr. LeWand began his career in Audit and Business Advisory Services at

Arthur Andersen where he worked in the audit and litigation consulting practices. Certif ific icatio ions: Certified Public Accountant, Colorado (CPA) Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) Accredited in Business Valuation (ABV) Certified Insolvency and Restructuring Advisor (CIRA) FINRA Series 7, 63 Educa cation: M.B.A. with honors, Texas A&M University B.S. with honors in Finance, Villanova University

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About

Glenn Tobias

Senior Managing Director Corporate Finance

New York, New York (917) 734-4376/ (646) 453-1217 glenn.tobias@fticonsulting.com

• Mr. Tobias is a Senior Managing Director in FTI’s Corporate Finance

practice and a licensed investment banker in FTI Capital Advisors,

• LLC. Mr. Tobias’ professional experience includes mergers and

acquisitions, private and public debt and equity capital markets, executive management (CFO and CRO roles), corporate restructuring, project finance, merger integration and corporate strategy. Mr. Tobias holds Series 79, Series 82 and Series 63 Investment Banking Licenses. He has more than 25 years of professional experience in a diverse set

• f industries including energy, media, telecommunications, software,

internet, defense, retail, financial services, and consumer businesses.

• Mr. Tobias is currently providing M&A advice to a telecom company,

an internet advertising company, an insurance company, and a Clean Tech company and raising capital for a clean tech company. He recently provided M&A and restructuring advice to a media company, served as interim CFO of several software companies and an online clothing retailer, provided project development advice to a power/data center company, and business restructuring advice to a telecom company. Mr. Tobias joined FTI at the start of 2009 after spending two years as an independent consultant , wherein he advised clients on mergers and acquisitions and corporate restructurings and in the telecom, cable, media, investment management, and consumer sectors.

• Mr. Tobias spent 15 years in investment banking, the last 12 at BNP

Paribas, where he was Managing Director - Head of BNP Paribas’ Energy, Natural Resources and Project Finance Group. His client driven focus led to the completion of $15 billion of project financings, acquisitions, equity investments and corporate financings throughout the Americas and Asia. Principal responsibilities included client and business development, strategy, transaction structuring and negotiation, portfolio management, loan workout and recruitment.

• Mr. Tobias also worked at Global Crossing, LTD for eight years as VP of

Corporate Development and VP Structured Finance where he executed over $10 billion of capital markets and M&A transactions and was instrumental in the company’s successful reorganization and exit from one of the US’ largest bankruptcies and the company’s further success post emergence. During his time there, Mr. Tobias handled a myriad of corporate development, corporate finance, and

• perations roles. His accomplishments included the execution of

subsidiary divestitures, corporate takeovers through public tenders and private acquisitions and the post merger integration of these acquisitions, capital raises including senior bank loans and high yield debt raises, negotiation of DIP and Exit finance facilities, management

• f the company’s pacific operations, and equity, equity linked and

equity derivative transactions.

• Mr. Tobias has a B.S. in Finance from Lehigh University.

Certifications FINRA Series 79, Series 82 and Series 63 Licenses

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About

Feng Zhao

Director Economic and Financial Consulting

Copenhagen, Denmark +45 3342 2658 feng.zhao@fticonsulting.com Feng is a Director in FTI’s Economics and Financial Consulting Practice and is based in the Copenhagen Office. Prior to joining FTI, Feng was an Associate Director in Navigant’s Energy Practice and a Research Director at Navigant Research, the research unit of Navigant Consulting. Before that, Feng was a critical member of BTM Consult, a leading renewable energy consultancy focused on wind that was acquired by Navigant at the end of 2010. Feng has extensive experience in renewables market analysis having co-authored the World Market Update and the Supply Chain Assessment for the international wind power market since 2007. He has recently served as the project manager for the World Market Update (the independent “bible” for the wind energy industry), Offshore Report, Latin America Wind Market Assessment and Emerging Wind Markets Assessment. Aside from leading the BTM reports business at Navigant, Feng has also been the leading expert in wind related consulting

• engagements. His project experience includes advising on

product portfolio and market entry & exit, market growth projection, regulatory and policy review, dispute support, and strategic supply chain management. Feng is a Chinese national and is very familiar with the Chinese energy market where he was heavily involved in several major wind IPOs recently launched by Chinese utilities and wind turbine vendors listing in Hong Kong and on the New York Stock Exchange. By managing a large number of cross border projects, Feng has built a global network covering business and technology throughout the entire wind energy value chain including wind farm owner-operators, developers, wind turbine vendors, components and materials suppliers, O&M service providers, investors, research centres, industry associations and government agencies. He has become a regular speaker/presenter at the key wind power conferences held in North America, Europe and Asia- Pacific and has been quoted by leading media on renewable energy issues.

Expe perti tise Wind Technology, Policy & Markets Educa cation MPA, Economics and Administration, Roskilde University, Denmark

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About

Frank Baumgardt

Senior Director Corporate Finance – Clean Tech

Denver, Colorado +1 (303) 956-9981 Frank.Baumgardt@fticonsulting.com

• Mr. Baumgardt is a Senior Director in FTI’s Corporate Finance

Segment, Telecom, Media & Technology Team, and Clean Technology

• sector. Before joining FTI, he led the renewable energy project

development efforts for Johnson Controls, Inc. for the Western U.S. and in selected international markets. There he conducted extensive technical, market, and economic analyses for renewable energy systems to identify opportunities and implement projects. Mr. Baumgardt has over 13 years of experience in the clean energy sector with a focus on project development and project management for renewable energy, in particular biofuels, solar, wind and geothermal. He has a technical engineering background with experience in identifying and realizing opportunities for clean energy project development. Earlier in his career, Mr. Baumgardt worked for BBI International, the Department of Energy’s Biomass Program, and the World Bank. At BBI International he analysed domestic and international markets for biofuels and advised on large-scale biofuels projects, focusing on siting, funding, permitting and developing ethanol and biodiesel

• plants. For the Biomass Program, he evaluated research proposals for

advanced biofuels projects and managed the implementation of the selected projects for the U.S. government. For the World Bank, he prepared renewable energy projects in Latin America for inclusion in the Clean Development Mechanism and supported lending efforts for financial reform in several Latin American countries.

• Mr. Baumgardt‘s project experience includes advising on market
• pportunities for renewable energy in the U.S. and internationally,

leading the development of new technology, and bringing renewable energy projects from concept to construction. Frank has worked with clients across the world and throughout the energy value chain including energy services companies (ESCOs), emerging technology companies, manufacturers, developers, lenders, and government agencies.

• Mr. Baumgardt has completed the implementation of numerous

renewable energy projects (solar, wind, geothermal, biofuels) and has completed feasibility and market entry study assignments; he has evaluated and led the development of multiple R&D projects for various renewable energy technologies.

Expe perti tise Renewable Energy Technology, Policy & Markets Strategy Project Management Project Development Educa cation M.B.A., Georgetown University M.Sc., International Agricultural Engineering Humboldt University (Berlin, Germany) B.Sc., International Agricultural Engineering Technical University (Berlin, Germany)

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