Freeze-Thaw Projections Our Team Ashley Thomas Senior at the - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

ICNet REU Project

Freeze-Thaw Projections

Our Team

• Dr. Anne Stoner

Postdoctoral researcher at the Texas Tech Climate Science Center PhD in Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology from the University of Illinois at Urbana- Champlain

• Dr. Heather Miller

Professor at UMass Dartmouth, Civil Engineer at LaBella Associates, D.P .C. PhD in Civil Engineering from the University of New Hampshire

• Dr. Jennifer Jacobs

Professor at the University of New Hampshire researching climate change, water resources, and infrastructure. PhD in Civil Engineering from Cornell University

• Dr. Jo Sias Daniel

Professor at the University of New Hampshire researching asphalt concrete, the performance of flexible pavements, recycled materials, and the impacts of climate change on pavement. PhD in Civil Engineering from North Carolina State University

Jill Crowley

Junior at the University of New Hampshire studying Environmental Engineering

Ashley Filion

Junior at the University of New Hampshire studying Civil Engineering

Masoumeh Khalkhali

PhD student

Tova Levin

Sophomore at Boston University studying International relations and Environmental Policy

Ashley Thomas

Senior at the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth studying Civil Engineering

Motivation

The climate is changing. How will it impact us?

Big Picture Roadways (DOT)

The changing climate affects the freeze/thaw seasons Freezing/thawing seasons affects the strength of low volume roads DOT implements restrictions and premiums for roadways How will those change? Not much research has been done involving direct impact of climate change on infrastructure What’s the best way to tackle climate change research? (framework)

Freeze-Thaw Background & Indicators

WWP

• Winter Weight Premium
• Water in pavement freezes

= extra strength

• DOT allows transportation of heavy

loads (Logging industry)

SLR

• Spring Load Restrictions
• Pavement layers thaw starting at

the top

• Water can’t escape through

frozen layers below = weaker

• DOT implements weight

restrictions to prevent damage Thawed soil; Excess moisture can’t drain down through underlying frozen layer* Frozen Soil

Our Process

• 1. Baseline analysis
• 9-10 models
• 2 emission scenarios
• Compare model output to
• bserved
• Use avg. temp data

(1950-1999) from models

• Compute cumulative freeze/

thaw indices

• Which models can we keep?
• 2. Future Analysis
• Use useful models to determine

how freeze/thaw indicators will change in the future

• New strategy for implementing

WWP and SLR each year?

• 3. Document, Archive, &

Communicate

• Record process & challenges
• Relay lessons & strategies to
• thers

Q: Input specifically on approach to baseline comparisons?

Climate Model Output Source for Daily Temp:

Bureau of Reclamations

Q: Opinions/suggestions about data collection, practices, timelines, etc.?

Choosing Models

CMIP5 Model Ranking Developed By Anne Stoner and Katharine Hayhoe Grouping System: 1: Most Reliable – updated, well-documented, long established 2: New and Interesting – combine traditional components of climate models w/ other models

• 3. Experimental – brand new global climate models

Q: Suggestions for a better approach to model selection?

Models and Emissions Scenarios

Data Analysis

• Avg. Daily Temps.
• Cumulative Freeze/Thaw

Indices WWP when CFI > 280 SLR when CTI > 25

i avg ref i

T T FI

,

− = !

ref i avg i

T T TI − =

,

!

CTIn = ∑

= n i 1

( Daily Thawing Index – 0.5 × Daily Freezing Index )

∑

=

=

n i i n

FI CFI

1

!

100 200 300 400 500 600

CFI (oF-days)

Is the model in or out?

Goal: Use baseline analysis to determine if climate models have gross errors Comparisons with: Box plots Histograms t-tests à Knock out crazy models Q: Advice for getting rid of models? Stupid things people have done?

Mariaville, ME: Model BCC-CSM1-1

Discussion

• Do you have any advice or input on research process thus far?
• Constructive criticism?
• Room for learning and growth?
• Other sectors we can learn from?