Francisco Marmolejo 7/24/2018 fmarmolejo@worldbank.org @fmarmole - - PDF document
Francisco Marmolejo 7/24/2018 fmarmolejo@worldbank.org @fmarmole Francisco Marmolejo Tertiary Education Coordinator The World Bank fmarmolejo@worldbank.org @fmarmole https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/tertiaryeducation 1 Francisco Marmolejo
Francisco Marmolejo fmarmolejo@worldbank.org @fmarmole 7/24/2018 1 https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/tertiaryeducation
Francisco Marmolejo Tertiary Education Coordinator The World Bank fmarmolejo@worldbank.org
@fmarmole
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Francisco Marmolejo fmarmolejo@worldbank.org @fmarmole 7/24/2018 4 https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/tertiaryeducation
@fmarmole Email: fmarmolejo@worldbank.org
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Francisco Marmolejo fmarmolejo@worldbank.org @fmarmole 7/24/2018 6 https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/tertiaryeducation
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Francisco Marmolejo fmarmolejo@worldbank.org @fmarmole 7/24/2018 9 https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/tertiaryeducation
@fmarmole Email: fmarmolejo@worldbank.org
Source: International Monetary Fund.
Francisco Marmolejo fmarmolejo@worldbank.org @fmarmole 7/24/2018 10 https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/tertiaryeducation 59531 45032 8902 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 GDP per capita USA Canada Mexico
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 High Income Countries South Asia North Africa and Middle East East and Pacific Asia Sub‐Saharan Africa Latin America and the Caribbean
Source: Luis F. Lopez-Calva y N. Lusing
0: Equity of Total Income 1: Inequity of Total Income
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Nearly 20 percent of America’s children–and 13 percent of all Americans–live in poverty.
The Brookings Institution.
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Geographical proximity will result in geo‐ economic‐politic al integration The increased integrated regional economy will require the support
American” pool of talent Economic integration will lead to harmonization of institutional frameworks Tertiary education will become increasingly harmonized
Can you tell me about my future?
Hmmm… I would, but I can’t read Spanish!
Francisco Marmolejo fmarmolejo@worldbank.org @fmarmole 7/24/2018 14 https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/tertiaryeducation
@fmarmole Email: fmarmolejo@worldbank.org
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Based on comparable estimates of 545 observations, 131 economies, 1970‐2011 In Latest year available: average rate of return is 9.9%
.05 .1 .15 .2 Density 5 10 15 20 Rate of return
Source: Montenegro, C.E. & H.A. Patrinos (2013). Returns to Schooling around the World. The World Bank
Region Primary Secondary Tertiary GDP/pc (PPP 2005) N World 10.3 6.9
16.8
6,719 74 Middle East and North Africa 9.4 3.5 8.9 3,645 7 South Asia 9.6 6.3 18.4 2,626 4 Eastern and Central Europe 8.3 4.0 10.1 6,630 7 High Income Economies 4.8 5.3 11.0 31,748 6 East Asia and Pacific 11.0 6.3 15.4 5,980 6 Latin America and Caribbean 9.3 6.6 17.6 7,269 20 Sub-Saharan Africa 13.4 10.8 21.9 2,531 24
* Latest available year between 2000-2011 Source: Montenegro, C.E. & H.A. Patrinos (2013). Returns to Schooling around the World. The World Bank
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Source: Montenegro, C.E. & H.A. Patrinos (2013). Returns to Schooling around the World. The World Bank
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Tertiary Education Primary Education
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@fmarmole Email: fmarmolejo@worldbank.org
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Made in The
Netherlands
With ingredients
from Morocco.
Distributed by a
Chinese company
For sale in Delhi.
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15.4% 38.5% 38.5% 38.5% 38.5% 46.2% 53.8% 53.8% 61.5% 69.2% 69.2% 69.2% 76.9% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0%
Diversification in institutional mission of TEIs Greater focus on TEIs versus governments Fostering internationalization Non‐university post‐secondary sector Articulation btw different types of TEIs and with… Innovation in educational delivery models used by TEIs Developing capacity of TEIs in science and innovation Equity and access to TE Role of the private sector in TE Improving governance Improving quality assurance Funding models for TE Bridging gap between education and employment * Multiple responses
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50 100 150 200 250
Global enrollment in tertiary education (Millions of students)
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10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 World High income countries Upper middle income countries Lower middle income countries Low income countries
Source: UIS database
Projections of the number of 25‐34 year‐olds with tertiary education, 2005‐2030
Note: Figures are estimates based on available data. Population estimates are based on OECD’s annual population projections Source: OECD, UNESCO, and National Statistics websites for Argentina, China, India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia and South Africa
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14% 8 %
Francisco Marmolejo fmarmolejo@worldbank.org @fmarmole 7/24/2018 27 https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/tertiaryeducation Richest Total Poorest
Francisco Marmolejo fmarmolejo@worldbank.org @fmarmole 7/24/2018 28 https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/tertiaryeducation 10 % 1910
2007
2050 WORLD POPULATION LIVING IN CITIES
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Source: World Bank. World Development Report. 2015
Decreasing >5 % Increasing > 40 %
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February 1, 2016 https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/02/01/for-the-first-time-in-28-years-a-baby-has-been- born-in-this-italian-town/
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Millions of inhabitants
USA Canada Mexico
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10 20 30 40 50 60 USA Canada Mexico
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Total Area: 2,038,722 km2
(787,155 sq mi)
Total Population: 31,906 inhabitants
Net Migration (in millions of people). 1960‐2010
Source: World Bank (2012). World Databank: Net Migration
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The demographic structure from a regional point of view
Canada
Millions of inhabitants Age
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74 80-84 90-94
Sourcee: Jaime Parada, CONACYT
Mexico USA
Source: Statista. 2018
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Francisco Marmolejo fmarmolejo@worldbank.org @fmarmole 7/24/2018 35 https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/tertiaryeducation Remembering
+ Integrity + Reliability + Flexibility + Empathy + Creativity + Awareness of contemporary issues
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Source: The Institute for the Future.
British Council (2017). 10 trends Transformative changes in higher education
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1784-1840 1870-1920 1969-2000 TODAY
Francisco Marmolejo fmarmolejo@worldbank.org @fmarmole 7/24/2018 39 https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/tertiaryeducation The Da Vinci Surgical Robot at Amrita Hospital has completed over 780 surgeries in multiple specialties in just 2 years
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TD Virtual / Augmented Mixed reality Digital literacy Artificial Intelligence Gaming Unbundling Adaptive learning
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In the 21st century, we’re facing a massive change in the technologies and types of jobs available…We can’t be certain that both productivity and employment will rise. We, as a society, need to make the commitment to guide
prosperity we are creating, just as those who came before us did. That way we will ensure that AI technology creates
Stephane Kasriel
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Our societies as social laboratories for a better future Education with a new paradigm is the key for economic and social development Many similarities and enriching differences Important economic and cultural synergies Unknown partners
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… But national level changes are not sufficient…
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Technical Skills @fmarmole Email: fmarmolejo@worldbank.org
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More international, but more locally connected and socially responsible. More flexible More innovative More entrepreneur Less risk averse More collaborative (inside and
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Don't be too aggressive
Identify and utilize support
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There is always someone else with a similar interest
A priority for “tomorrow” Marginal Too many complications Others’ opportunity Just a good idea Priority for “yesterday” Central Highly practical Engagement at home A window of opportunity
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“ The trouble with our times is that the future is not what it used to be ”
Paul Valéry
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Francisco Marmolejo Global Lead of Tertiary Education and Lead Education Specialist, India The World Bank
@fmarmole