#wdr2018 www.worldbank.org/wdr2018 Education generates multiple - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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#wdr2018 www.worldbank.org/wdr2018 Education generates multiple - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

#wdr2018 www.worldbank.org/wdr2018 Education generates multiple benefits Country Individual Better employment More economic growth Higher income Economic Less inequality More job stability More economic and social mobility Less poverty


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#wdr2018

www.worldbank.org/wdr2018

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La promesa de la educación

Education generates multiple benefits

The promise of education

Better employment Higher income More job stability Less poverty Better health Fewer unplanned teen pregnancies More life satisfaction Less crime More economic growth Less inequality More economic and social mobility More social capital More opportunities for redistribution Institutional strengthening Democratic values

Individual Country Economic Non economic

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Education can’t do it alone… … too many children and young people enroll in school but they do not learn

Yet, investments are not yielding maximum results

Why?

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Globally, schooling doubled since the 1980s

Source: Montenegro & Patrinos (2014).

6.6 8.8 11.6

2 4 6 8 10 12 14

1980-1985 1986-1990 1991-1995 1996-2000 2001-2005 2006-2010 2011-2013

Average years of schooling

Average years of schooling

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% firms employing unskilled workers* % firms identifying inadequate workforce skills as a major constraint

Source: Enterprise Surveys www.enterprisesurveys.org

17 21 14 23 19 38 19 26 21 30 26 29 36 37

10 20 30 40

High income: OECD Eastern Europe & Central Asia Middle East & North Africa South Asia East Asia & Pacific Sub-Saharan Africa Latin America & Caribbean

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* Manufacturing

Still, firms around the world can’t find skilled workers...

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Schooling is not the same as learning

The world is facing a “Learning Crisis”

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There can be a large gap between learning-adjusted and unadjusted years of schooling

Years of Schooling are not the same as Learning

Average years of schooling of 25- to 29-year-olds, unadjusted and adjusted for learning Years of schooling

PISA 2015, selected countries

10.0 11.0 6.3 5.9

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

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Brazil

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Progress in Math (PISA 15-year-olds)

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Brazil

Time to reach OECD average in Math (PISA 15-year-olds)

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

75 years

OECD average

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Brazil

Time to reach OECD average in Math and Reading (PISA 15-year-olds)

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

>260 years

OECD average

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Australia Austria Canada Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Ireland Italy Japan Korea, Rep. Netherlands Norway Poland Slovak Republic Spain Sweden

250 260 270 280 290

440 460 480 500 520 540 560

PIAAC Numeracy 2012 (16- to 24-year-olds)

PISA Math 2006 (15-year-olds)

Australia Austria Canada Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Ireland Italy Japan Korea, Rep. Netherlands Norway Poland Russian Federation Slovak Republic Spain Sweden

260 270 280 290 300

420 440 460 480 500 520 540

PIAAC Literacy 2012 (16- to 24-year-olds)

PISA Reading 2006 (15-year-olds)

The learning crisis becomes a skills crisis

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Weak foundational skills affect Europe too. .

12

Source: World Bank staff calculations based on PISA 2015 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 EE DK FI IE SI NL PL DE SE BE LV CZ UK AT ES IT EU FR PT LT LU SK HU MT HR EL RO BG

Share of low performers, PISA 2015 mathematics

All students

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. . . Driven partly by low learning of disadvantaged students

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Source: World Bank staff calculations based on PISA 2015 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 EE DK FI IE SI NL PL DE SE BE LV CZ UK AT ES IT EU FR PT LT LU SK HU MT HR EL RO BG

Share of low performers by socio-economic status, PISA 2015 mathematics

All students Students in bottom ESCS quintile

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What matters for growth is learning

Annual average per capita growth in income 1970-2015, conditional on test scores, years of schooling, and initial income

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Nearly 2 billion working age adults (15-64) around the world have low literacy skills

Note: Compiled by WDR 2018 Team, with data from Larson and Valerio (2017).

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Zooming in: Workforce Skills

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Where is the disconnect?

Worker Productivity and Employability are a function of supply, demand, and other factors

Job shortages Skills Gaps

Information asymetries & socio-cultural biases

Poor quality

  • f general

education Insufficient

quantity of

general education

Low level

economic activity

Insufficient demand for supply

  • f skills available

Information barriers prevent job matches Biases in hiring practices

Insufficient supply of

relevant field

  • f study
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Zooming in on Skills Gaps: quantity and quality issues

Skills Gaps

Insufficient

quantity of

general education Poor quality

  • f general

education Insufficient supply of

relevant field

  • f study
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Globally, just 35% of primary entrants complete upper secondary education; In SSA, less than 25%

Note: Compiled by WDR 2018 Team, with data from UNESCO (2010, 2015) and WIDE (2017). Estimates are for circa 2010

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Skills development

deficits NOT using skills

in the workplace

Stuck in low

productivity and unstable Jobs Sort into

low productivity

jobs

Zooming in on Low Quantity: Implications of leaving school prematurely

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Zooming in on Low Quality: understanding skills interaction

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Wealthier countries have higher literacy levels, but all countries face low-literacy challenges

Note: Compiled by WDR 2018 Team, with data from PIAAC (2011-2014) and STEP (2011-2014).

Level 1 Level 2+

Low Literacy Proficiency:

Ability to access information

Medium-High Literacy Proficiency:

Ability to identify, integrate, and evaluate information

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Formal education in different countries vary greatly in delivering literacy proficiency

Note: Data from PIAAC , STEP Skills Survey (2011-14). * denote STEP data countries

9 years (Lower Secondary) 12 years (Upper Secondary) 16 years (Tertiary)

Armenia* Canada Bolivia* Australia Chile Ghana* Denmark Colombia* Kenya* Estonia France Finland Germany Georgia* Israel Ireland Singapore Japan Slovenia Korea Turkey Netherlands United States Norway Poland Serbia* Slovak Republic Sweden Vietnam*

Years of Formal Education Needed to Reach Basic Level 1 Literacy Proficiency

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SLIDE 24 ARM AUS AUT BEL(Flanders) BOL CAN CHL COL CZE DNK EST FIN FRA GEO DEU GHA GRC IRL ISR ITA JPN KEN KOR LTU NLD NZL NOR POL RUS SVK SVN ESP SWE TUR GBR(England) GBR(Northern Ireland) UKR USA VNM

.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 150 200 250 300 Mean Literacy Score, circa 2012

Green line denote fitted values

Mean Literacy Score and Skills Use at Work

ARM AUS AUT BEL(Flanders) BOL CAN CHL COL CZE DNK EST FIN FRA GEO DEU GHA GRC IRL ISR ITA JPN KEN KOR LTU NLD NZL NOR POL RUS SVK SVN ESP SWE TUR GBR(England) GBR(Northern Ireland) UKR USA VNM

50000 .5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 Mean Use of Reading Skills at Work

Weighted by Per Worker Output (2000); Green line denotes fitted values

Worker Productivity and Skills Use at Work

Workers with higher literacy proficiency are more likely to use their skills at work, and have higher productivity on the job

Note: OECD PIAAC Data, 2012; Worker Productivity Data from WB, 2011. Graph Weighted by per worker output in 2000

Zooming in on Low Quality: implications

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Workers with higher literacy proficiency are more likely to enter white-collar, better paying, stable jobs

Note: Data from STEP Skills Survey (2014).

Zooming in on Low Quality: implications

  • Avg. diff in wage/hr is 63

Serbian Dinar (≈ $.62)

  • Avg. diff in wage/hr is 94

Kenyan Shilling (≈ $.91)

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Both quantity and quality of general education are correlated with better socioemotional skills

Note: Data from STEP Skills Survey in Serbia (2014).

Zooming in on Low Quality: cognitive and non-cognitive

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Zooming in: Understanding Young People’s Pathways

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Young People Follow Different Pathways:

→ Join the labor force / find employment → Enroll in basic or post basic-equivalent job

training

→ Pursue further education → Become inactive (not in school, not working)

But, for many, accumulated skills deficits make it difficult to obtain a quality job

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Workplace Training Technical and Vocational Programs (Secondary or Tertiary) Short-term Training Programs Neither in school not working Academic Tertiary Programs

  • 1. Establishing Partnerships
  • 2. Combining Classroom and

Workplace Learning

  • 3. Identifying Capable Teachers

and Trainers

  • 4. Making Information Available

for Decision-making

Successful Program Features

Training for Jobs

Pathways

  • Join the labor force /

find employment

  • Enroll in basic or

post basic- equivalent job training

  • Pursue further

education

  • Become inactive (not

in school, not working)

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Less than 15% of young people receive workplace training, those who do tend to already have better literacy or education

Note: Data from STEP Skills Survey (2011-14).

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Even fewer young people enroll in short-term training programs. STTs are costly, and less than 30% have positive, significant impacts

Note: Adapted from Kluve and others 2016. Standard mean differences of .2, .5, .8 are commonly considered as small, moderate, and large effects respectively.

Even the biggest impacts are still below .2 σ

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Globally, more students still leave school early than enroll in either general or TVET upper secondary education

Notes: compiled by WDR 2018 team, using data from UIS (2016).

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Depending on the target population and context, interventions have to be tailored;

  • 1. Es

Establi lishin ing Ind ndustry ry Par artnership ips

  • 2. Co

Combin inin ing g Cl Classroom and and Work

  • rkplace Lear

Learning

  • 3. Ide

dentify ifyin ing g Cap Capable le Teac eachers and and Train ainers

  • 4. Ma

Makin ing g Infor

  • rmatio

ion Avail ilable le for

  • r De

Decis ision-makin ing

Four Successful l Training Program Features

Sector/industry programs use intermediary institutions—usually network aggregators or nonprofits with industry-specific expertise—to work with employers in a given industry to anticipate job openings, design program content, and maximize potential placement. Apprenticeships are a common way to combine classroom and workplace learning, and may last from one to three years and take place at the secondary or post-secondary level or as an alternative to upper secondary education—giving students the opportunity to engage in industry-supervised workplace practices. Successful training programs require teachers with industry expertise to ensure content is aligned with job requirements and provide recognized career development tracks for technical trainers and instructors. Career information interventions are usually grouped into career education programs, which might include providing direction on coursework selection, and career planning, which is usually provided

  • n an individual basis.
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1.

  • 1. Es

Establish shing Ind ndustry Par artnerships 2.

  • 2. Com
  • mbining Class

lassroom and and Work

  • rkplace Lea

Learning 3.

  • 3. Ide

dentify fying Cap apable Tea eachers s and and Trai ainers

The Wisconsin Regional Training Partnership (USA) Jewish Vocational Service–Boston (USA) Per Scholars–New York City (USA) McKinsey Generation Program (India, Kenya, Mexico, Spain, USA) State Apprenticeship Programs–WA, VA (USA) Lei Do Aprendiz (Brazil) Apprenticeship Program for Women (Malawi) Polytechnics (Ghana) Vocational Colleges (Malaysia) TVET Trainers (Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, UAEs)

Program Examples

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There can be a large gap between learning-adjusted and unadjusted years of schooling

Where do educational systems breakdown?

Learning

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Assess learning to make it a serious goal Act to make schools work for all learners Align actors to make the whole system

work for learning

Policy measures to improve learning:

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Alexandria Valerio avalerio@worldbank.org Get the puzzle app at the Apple Store Search for “WDR 2018”

www.worldbank.org/wdr2018