#wdr2018 www.worldbank.org/wdr2018 Education generates multiple - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

#wdr2018 www.worldbank.org/wdr2018

Education generates multiple benefits Country Individual Better employment More economic growth Higher income Economic Less inequality More job stability More economic and social mobility Less poverty La promesa de la educación The promise of education More social capital Better health Non More opportunities for redistribution Fewer unplanned teen pregnancies Institutional strengthening economic More life satisfaction Democratic values Less crime

Yet, investments are not yielding maximum results Why? … too many children and Education can’t young people enroll in school do it alone… but they do not learn

Globally, schooling doubled since the 1980s 14 11.6 12 8.8 10 8 6.6 6 4 2 0 1980-1985 1986-1990 1991-1995 1996-2000 2001-2005 2006-2010 2011-2013 Average years of schooling Average years of schooling Source: Montenegro & Patrinos (2014).

Still, firms around the world can’t find skilled workers... % firms identifying % firms employing unskilled workers* inadequate workforce skills as a major constraint 40 38 37 36 30 30 29 26 26 20 23 21 21 19 19 17 14 10 * Manufacturing 0 High income: OECD Eastern Europe & Central Asia Middle East & North Africa South Asia East Asia & Pacific Sub-Saharan Africa Latin America & Caribbean Source: Enterprise Surveys www.enterprisesurveys.org 5

Schooling is not the same as learning The world is facing a “Learning Crisis”

There can be a large gap between learning-adjusted and unadjusted years of schooling Years of Schooling are not the same as Learning Average years of schooling of 25- to 29-year-olds, unadjusted and adjusted for learning 16 14 12 11.0 10.0 Years of schooling 10 8 5.9 6.3 6 4 2 0 PISA 2015, selected countries

Brazil Progress in Math (PISA 15-year-olds) 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Brazil Time to reach OECD average in Math (PISA 15-year-olds) OECD average 75 years 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Brazil Time to reach OECD average in Math and Reading (PISA 15-year-olds) OECD average >260 years 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

The learning crisis becomes a skills crisis 290 300 Japan Finland Netherlands Finland Netherlands Japan Korea, Rep. Korea, Rep. 280 290 PIAAC Numeracy 2012 Austria ( 16- to 24 -year-olds) ( 16- to 24 -year-olds) Estonia PIAAC Literacy 2012 Sweden Slovak Republic Czech Republic Estonia Germany Australia Denmark Sweden Poland Norway 270 280 Czech Republic Australia Germany Poland Canada Austria Slovak Republic Denmark Canada Norway France Russian France Federation 260 270 Ireland Ireland Spain Spain Italy Italy 250 260 440 460 480 500 520 540 560 420 440 460 480 500 520 540 PISA Reading 2006 ( 15 -year-olds) PISA Math 2006 ( 15 -year-olds) 11

Weak foundational skills affect Europe too. . 80 Share of low performers, PISA 2015 mathematics 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 EE DK FI IE SI NL PL DE SE BE LV CZ UK AT ES IT EU FR PT LT LU SK HU MT HR EL RO BG All students Source: World Bank staff calculations based on PISA 2015 12

. . . Driven partly by low learning of disadvantaged students 80 Share of low performers by socio-economic status, PISA 2015 70 mathematics 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 EE DK FI IE SI NL PL DE SE BE LV CZ UK AT ES IT EU FR PT LT LU SK HU MT HR EL RO BG All students Students in bottom ESCS quintile Source: World Bank staff calculations based on PISA 2015 13

What matters for growth is learning Annual average per capita growth in income 1970-2015, conditional on test scores, years of schooling, and initial income

Nearly 2 billion working age adults (15-64) around the world have low literacy skills Note: Compiled by WDR 2018 Team, with data from Larson and Valerio (2017).

Zooming in: Workforce Skills

Where is the disconnect? Worker Productivity and Employability are a function of supply, demand, and other factors Information Skills Job asymetries & Gaps shortages socio-cultural biases Insufficient Insufficient supply of Low level quantity of relevant field economic Poor quality Biases in hiring Information general Insufficient activity of study practices of general barriers prevent education demand for supply education job matches of skills available

Zooming in on Skills Gaps : quantity and quality issues Skills Gaps Insufficient Insufficient supply of quantity of Poor quality relevant field general of general of study education education

Globally, just 35% of primary entrants complete upper secondary education; In SSA, less than 25% Note: Compiled by WDR 2018 Team, with data from UNESCO (2010, 2015) and WIDE (2017). Estimates are for circa 2010

Zooming in on Low Quantity: Implications of leaving school prematurely Skills development deficits Sort into low productivity jobs NOT using skills in the workplace Stuck in low productivity and unstable Jobs

Zooming in on Low Quality : understanding skills interaction

Wealthier countries have higher literacy levels, but all countries face low-literacy challenges Level 2+ Level 1 Low Literacy Proficiency: Ability to access information Medium-High Literacy Proficiency: Ability to identify, integrate, and evaluate information Note: Compiled by WDR 2018 Team, with data from PIAAC (2011-2014) and STEP (2011-2014).

Formal education in different countries vary greatly in delivering literacy proficiency Years of Formal Education Needed to Reach Basic Level 1 Literacy Proficiency 9 years (Lower Secondary) 12 years (Upper Secondary) 16 years (Tertiary) Armenia* Canada Bolivia* Australia Chile Ghana* Denmark Colombia* Kenya* Estonia France Finland Germany Georgia* Israel Ireland Singapore Japan Slovenia Korea Turkey Netherlands United States Norway Poland Serbia* Slovak Republic Sweden Vietnam* Note: Data from PIAAC , STEP Skills Survey (2011-14). * denote STEP data countries

Zooming in on Low Quality : implications Workers with higher literacy proficiency are more likely to use their skills at work, and have higher productivity on the job Mean Literacy Score and Skills Use at Work Worker Productivity and Skills Use at Work NZL AUS 3 USA NOR GBR(Northern Ireland) GBR(England) CAN FIN DEU SWE NLD DNK JPN IRL AUT BEL(Flanders) KOR EST NOR SVN CZE 2.5 FRA SVK ISR CHL ESP IRL POL USA RUS GRC ITA BEL(Flanders) ITA NLD FRA DNK LTU AUT SWE DEU 2 FIN TUR ESP AUS CAN GBR(Northern Ireland) GBR(England) ISR GRC JPN KOR NZL SVN 1.5 CZE 50000 SVK TUR LTU POL EST VNM RUS CHL UKR ARM GEO BOL 1 COL KEN COL UKR ARM GEO BOL GHA KEN VNM .5 GHA 0 150 200 250 300 .5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 Mean Literacy Score, circa 2012 Mean Use of Reading Skills at Work Green line denote fitted values Weighted by Per Worker Output (2000); Green line denotes fitted values Note : OECD PIAAC Data, 2012; Worker Productivity Data from WB, 2011. Graph Weighted by per worker output in 2000

Zooming in on Low Quality : implications Workers with higher literacy proficiency are more likely to enter white-collar, better paying, stable jobs Avg. diff in wage/hr is 63 Serbian Dinar (≈ $.62) Avg. diff in wage/hr is 94 Kenyan Shilling (≈ $.91) Note: Data from STEP Skills Survey (2014).

Zooming in on Low Quality : cognitive and non-cognitive Both quantity and quality of general education are correlated with better socioemotional skills Note: Data from STEP Skills Survey in Serbia (2014).

Zooming in: Understanding Young People’s Pathways

→ Join the labor force / find employment Young People → Enroll in basic or post basic-equivalent job Follow Different training Pathways: → Pursue further education → Become inactive (not in school, not working) But, for many, accumulated skills deficits make it difficult to obtain a quality job

Training for Jobs 1. Establishing Partnerships Pathways • Join the labor force / Workplace Training 2. Combining Classroom and find employment Workplace Learning Successful • Enroll in basic or Short-term Training Program post basic- Programs 3. Identifying Capable Teachers Features equivalent job and Trainers training Technical and Vocational • Pursue further Programs 4. Making Information Available (Secondary or Tertiary) for Decision-making education • Become inactive (not Academic Tertiary in school, not Programs working) Neither in school not working

Less than 15% of young people receive workplace training, those who do tend to already have better literacy or education Note: Data from STEP Skills Survey (2011-14).

Even fewer young people enroll in short-term training programs. STTs are costly, and less than 30% have positive, significant impacts Even the biggest impacts are still below .2 σ Note: Adapted from Kluve and others 2016. Standard mean differences of .2, .5, .8 are commonly considered as small, moderate, and large effects respectively.

Globally, more students still leave school early than enroll in either general or TVET upper secondary education Notes : compiled by WDR 2018 team, using data from UIS (2016).