Framing the Future of the West: The View from Utah Pamela S. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Framing the Future of the West: The View from Utah Pamela S. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Framing the Future of the West: The View from Utah Pamela S. Perlich, Ph.D. Director, Demographic Research Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, University of Utah Intermountain States Population: 1900- 1950 7 Arizona 749,587 6 1,325,08

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Pamela S. Perlich, Ph.D. – Director, Demographic Research Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, University of Utah

Framing the Future of the West:

The View from Utah

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Intermountain States Population: 1900- 1950

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Millions of Population Arizona Colorado Idaho Montana Nevada New Mexico 749,587 1,325,08 9 588,637 591,024 160,083 681,187 688,862

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Intermountain States Population: 1900- 2010

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Millions of Population Arizona Colorado Idaho Montana Nevada New Mexico 6,392,01 7 5,029,19 6 1,566,58 2 989,415 2,700,55

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2010: Majority of U.S. Births Are Minority

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2015: Millennials Surpass Baby Boomers

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division

500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 4,500,000 5,000,000 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 100+

United States

Millennials (1982-2000) 82.8 million Generation Z (after 2000) 60.1 million Generation X (1965-1981) 69.8 million Baby Boomers (1946-1964) 74.9 million Silent Generation (1930-1945) 26.3 million Greatest and Lost Generations (before 1930) 4.6 million

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2015: Millennials Surpass Baby Boomers

10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85+

Utah

Millennials (1982-2000) 877,693 Generation Z (after 2000) 767,523 Generation X (1965-1981) 629,214 Baby Boomers (1946-1964) 514,533 Silent Generation (1930-1946) 166,254 Greatest and Lost Generations (before 1930) 35,708

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division

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Percent Job Losses in Post WWII Recessions

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Mean Income by Group

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Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Survey of Consumer Finances

Net Worth Share by Net Worth Group

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Mean Net Worth for Bottom 50% Net Worth Group

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Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 1995; 2000; 2005.

U.S. Population by Region: 1900- 2010

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Millions of Population South Midwest Northeast West

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U.S. Population by Region: 1900- 2030

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Millions of Population South Midwest Northeast West

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 1995; 2000; 2005.

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Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 1995; 2000; Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

U.S. Population by Region: 1900- 2030

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Millions of Population South Midwest Northeast West

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Utah’s Population Growth Since the Recession is Third Highest in the Nation

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute of U.S. Census Bureau Data

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State of Utah Components of Change

  • 20,000
  • 10,000

10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Net Migration Natural Increase Population Change

Sources: Utah Population Estimates Committee and DemographyUTAH Population Committee

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Long Run Drivers of Change

Economy Technology Demography

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Utah: Trend Toward Nation

Source: NCHS - National Vital Statistics Reports, Volume 64, Number 1 January 15, 2015

4.30 3.60 2.33 1.88 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 Utah U.S.

Total Fertility Rates

1960 2014

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Source: Decennial Census and 2015 American Community Survey

5.17 5.27 3.17 2.65 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 Utah U.S.

Household Size

1960 2015

Utah: Trend Toward Nation

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Source: Decennial Census and 2015 Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau

23.1 28.1 31.2 37.8 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 Utah U.S.

Median Age

1970 2015

Utah: Trend Toward Nation

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Source: U.S. Census Bureau: Decennial Census and 2015 Population Estimates

1.9% 11.4% 21.0% 38.4% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Utah U.S.

Minority Share

1970 2015

Utah: Trend Toward Nation

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20.2 20.8 24.3 27.8 5 10 15 20 25 30 Utah U.S.

Female Age at First Marriage

1970 2015

Source: U.S. Census Bureau: Decennial Census and 2015 American Community Survey.

Utah: Trend Toward Nation

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48% 40% 30% 19% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Utah U.S.

Share of Households: Opposite Sex Married Couple with Children

1970 2015

Source: Decennial Census and 2015 American Community Survey: S0201.

Utah: Trend Toward Nation

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United States Household Size

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, calculation by the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

24.6% 32.0% 17.4% 15.1% 6.7% 2.5% 1.7% 25.8% 32.6% 16.5% 14.2% 6.6% 2.5% 1.8% 26.7% 32.8% 16.1% 13.4% 6.5% 2.6% 1.9% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 1-person household 2-person household 3-person household 4-person household 5-person household 6-person household 7-or-more person household 1990 2000 2010

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Utah Household Size

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, calculation by the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

18.9% 28.5% 15.6% 14.9% 9.8% 6.4% 5.8% 17.8% 28.9% 16.5% 15.9% 10.2% 6.1% 4.6% 18.7% 29.3% 16.0% 15.1% 10.3% 6.2% 4.5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 1-person household 2-person household 3-person household 4-person household 5-person household 6-person household 7-or-more person household 1990 2000 2010

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Living Arrangement of Utah Adults: 2015

4.2% 36.2% 6.0% 28.6% 11.2% 13.8% 8.6% 68.0% 3.9% 5.0% 11.2% 3.3% 22.2% 61.8% 1.0% 0.3% 12.9% 1.8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Lives alone Married Couple Unmarried Partners Child of householder Other relatives Other nonrelatives 18 to 34 35 to 64 65+

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates. Note: Adults are 18 years and older.

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Utah’s Economic Transformation

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Utah’s Economic Transformation

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Utah’s Economic Transformation

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Demographic Transformation

Immigration Aging Fertility

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The NEW Utah

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The NEW Utah

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The NEW Utah

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Generational Shift

Children of Immigrants

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U.S. Foreign Born Population: 1900–2015

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau (decennial Censuses) and 2015 American Community Survey; Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Calculations.

13.5% 43.3 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 Number of Foreign Born (Millions) Foreign Born Share of Total Population Share Millions

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U.S. Foreign Born Population: 1900–2015

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau (decennial Censuses) and 2015 American Community Survey; Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Calculations.

14.7% 13.5% 43.3 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 Number of Foreign Born (Millions) Foreign Born Share of Total Population Share Millions

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Utah Foreign Born Population: 1900–2015

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau (decennial Censuses) and 2015 American Community Survey; Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Calculations.

17.6% 8.2% 244.5 50 100 150 200 250 300 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 Number of Foreign Born (Thousands) Foreign Born Share of Total Population Share Millions

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Utah: An In Migration State

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Who’s Coming?

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“New Gateway” Why?

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...at the Crossroads of a New Era

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Utah Population Change 1990- 2010

Sources: Bureau of the Census (decennial Censuses and Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Calculations.

Net Migrati

  • n,

35% Natura l Increas e, 65% Nativ e Born, 55% Forei gn Born, 45%

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Mexico 42.3% South Americ a 9.6% Central Americ a 6.8% Caribbea n…

Utah’s Foreign Born Population: 2015

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates: C05006.

Latin America 60.5% Asia 20.0% Europe 9.3% Oceania 3.4% Africa 3.4% Northern America 3.3%

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General Fertility Rate

Downtown Salt Lake City = 48.6

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General Fertility Rate

Lehi / Cedar Valley = 132.0

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54

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2000 Census.

Minority Share of the Population: 2000

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Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census.

Minority Share of the Population: 2010

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Glendale 75.8 Foothill 85

Life Expectancy at Birth

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57

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58

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129 Languages

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Minority Share by Age Group: 2010

Sources: Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census.

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Westside SLC Salt Lake City US Salt Lake County Utah

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Minority Share of the Population: U.S., Utah, & Salt Lake County & City

Sources: Bureau of the Census, Gibson and Jung (2002), Perlich (2002), Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 1900191019201930194019501960197019801990200020102020203020402050 U.S. State of Utah Salt Lake County Salt Lake City

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Mixed Heritage:

America in 2050

Source: National Geographic

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HOSANNA MARSHALL, 32, NEW YORK, NEW YORK SELF-ID: African American, Native American, white, and Jewish CENSUS BOXES CHECKED: black

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Neighborhoods

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Aging Population

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U.S. Dependency Ratios

Aging Baby Boomer Drive Increase in Total

61.0 46.0 41.7 41.4 38.2 38.7 39.9 39.8 39.9 40.0 18.0 19.0 20.3 20.1 20.7 23.7 33.3 34.3 34.5 35.6 79.0 65.0 62.0 61.5 58.9 62.4 73.2 74.1 74.4 75.6 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Youth Retirement Age

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of Governor’s Office of Management and Budget 2012 Baseline Projections. Note: Dependency Ratios are computed as the number of nonworking age persons per 100 working age (18-64 year old) persons in the

  • population. Youth are less than 18 years old and retirement age is 65 years and older.
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Utah Dependency Ratios

Youth Dependency Ratios Decline and Stabilize

76.0 67.0 65.8 54.2 53.0 52.4 47.5 46.2 47.1 46.7 14.0 13.0 15.8 14.4 15.2 17.6 24.2 26.7 31.1 33.7 90.0 80.0 81.6 68.6 68.2 70.0 71.7 72.9 78.2 80.4 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Youth Retirement Age

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of Governor’s Office of Management and Budget 2012 Baseline Projections. Note: Dependency Ratios are computed as the number of nonworking age persons per 100 working age (18-64 year old) persons in the

  • population. Youth are less than 18 years old and retirement age is 65 years and older.
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The Future Emerging

Increasing Share

  • f Population

Technological Complexity Global Competition

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Investments Shape the Future

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Intergenerational Transfers

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Utah is Forever Changed

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Utah is Forever Changed

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Utah is Forever Changed

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Utah is Forever Changed

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Utah is Forever Changed

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Utah is Forever Changed

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Utah is Forever Changed

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Utah is Forever Changed

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Our Challenge

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Infrastructure of Opportunity

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Projecting & Connecting

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Projecting & Connecting

Demography as Possibility

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The New Utah

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Thank you

Pamela S. Perlich, Ph.D. Director, Demographic Research Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, University of Utah gardner.utah.edu

  • Pam.Perlich@utah.edu

Voice: 801.581.3358 • Fax: 801.581.3354

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