forest degradation at local scales
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forest degradation at local scales: modeling what-if scenarios Adrin - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

May 29, 2023 •380 likes •618 views

Spatiotemporal dynamics of dry forest degradation at local scales: modeling what-if scenarios Adrin Ghilardi a,b , Jean-Franois Mas a , Rob Bailis b a Centro de Investigaciones en Geografa Ambiental (CIGA), UNAM b Yale School of Forestry

  1. Spatiotemporal dynamics of dry forest degradation at local scales: modeling what-if scenarios Adrián Ghilardi a,b , Jean-François Mas a , Rob Bailis b a Centro de Investigaciones en Geografía Ambiental (CIGA), UNAM b Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies Presented at the ATBC-OTS Joint 50th Anniversary Meeting. Within the Symposium: Tropical Secondary Dry Forests of the Americas: Tropi-Dry 10-Years of Collaborative Research 24 June 2013 in San José, Costa Rica

  2. Broad-brush background (TDF) E. Jardel 24/06/2013 ATBC-OTS Joint Meeting 2013 - Ghilardi presentation - "Modeling woodfuel impacts" 2

  3. TDF degradation drivers: Woodfuel includes fuelwood or (firewood) and charcoal A. Ghilardi 24/06/2013 ATBC-OTS Joint Meeting 2013 - Ghilardi presentation - "Modeling woodfuel impacts" 3

  4. Traditional woodfuel: How many people use/depend on it? • About 2.5 ± 1.0 billion people rely on traditional woodfuel for meeting their residential energy needs (either alone or in combination with kerosene, LPG, electricity, among others). FAO 24/06/2013 ATBC-OTS Joint Meeting 2013 - Ghilardi presentation - "Modeling woodfuel impacts" 4

  5. TDF degradation drivers: charcoal A. Ghilardi 24/06/2013 ATBC-OTS Joint Meeting 2013 - Ghilardi presentation - "Modeling woodfuel impacts" 5

  6. TDF degradation drivers: fuelwood G. Guerrero A. Ghilardi 24/06/2013 ATBC-OTS Joint Meeting 2013 - Ghilardi presentation - "Modeling woodfuel impacts" 6

  7. Motivating questions • Under what conditions is woodfuel exploitation sustainable? • Can fuel switching or efficient cookstoves reduce woodfuel-driven deforestation and forest degradation? A. Ghilardi 24/06/2013 ATBC-OTS Joint Meeting 2013 - Ghilardi presentation - "Modeling woodfuel impacts" 7

  8. Our current understanding… • Woodfuel harvesting doesn't always cause deforestation or degradation • Impacts are very site-specific – Intensity of extraction – Vegetation response to harvesting – Social response to scarcity A. Ghilardi, R Drigo, FAO • Whole-country averages based on aggregate supply-demand balances are inadequate • Local studies do not convey the whole picture

  9. Spatio-temporal dynamics of woodfuel harvesting at landscape levels: NRBv1.0 Model • Dynamic spatial modeling environment – DINAMICA-EGO* (Soares-Filho et al. 2009) • Still uses biomass supply and demand – Time-steps allow repeated cycles of harvest and regrowth – Dynamic landscape response – Explicitly incorporates uncertainty and stochasticity * Environment for Geoprocessing Objects 24/06/2013 ATBC-OTS Joint Meeting 2013 - Ghilardi presentation - "Modeling woodfuel impacts" 9

  10. 24/06/2013 ATBC-OTS Joint Meeting 2013 - Ghilardi presentation - "Modeling woodfuel impacts" 10

  11. Case study #1: Western Honduras • Honduras – 60% population using fuelwood as primary energy carrier – 2-10% deforestation rate • Project – 40k stoves installed since 2004 – > 1000 stoves installed per month – Earning carbon credits 24/06/2013 ATBC-OTS Joint Meeting 2013 - Ghilardi presentation - "Modeling woodfuel impacts" 11

  12. Results: AGB and NRB under BAU conditions 24/06/2013 Ghilardi, Bailis et al. GEC (in review)

  13. Results: AGB and NRB in w/consumption reduced 50% Ghilardi, Bailis et al. GEC (in review)

  14. Results: AGB and NRB in w/consumption x2 Ghilardi, Bailis et al. GEC (in review)

  15. Validation: fieldwork 1. Working with local volunteers Ghilardi, Mas, Bailis et al. AG (in review)

  16. Validation: RS 2004->2010 ASTER VS. 2004->2010 Model Ghilardi, Mas, Bailis et al. AG (in review)

  17. Case study #2: Charcoal production in central Mexico: The Cuitzeo basin 24/06/2013 ATBC-OTS Joint Meeting 2013 - Ghilardi presentation - "Modeling woodfuel impacts" 17

  18. 1 1 2 2 3 3 5 5 4 4 A Ghilardi T Mwampamba 24/06/2013 ATBC-OTS Joint Meeting 2013 - Ghilardi presentation - "Modeling woodfuel impacts" 18

  19. De la Pirotechnia, Vanoccio Biringuccio, 1540 1 1 2 2 3 3 5 5 4 4 A Ghilardi T Mwampamba 24/06/2013 ATBC-OTS Joint Meeting 2013 - Ghilardi presentation - "Modeling woodfuel impacts" 19

  20. Animation not available in pdf. 5km 2000 -> 2025 Contact adrian.ghilardi@yale.edu

  21. On going developments (NRB v2.0) • Calibration and Validation – Working with fuelwood collectors as volunteers to help us better understand and model practices – Analyzing recent LCLUC time-series to determine how well NRBv1.0 matches observed changes • Incorporate role of other drivers of LULC – Agriculture and pasture expansion/contraction • Demographic change & fuelwood demand elasticity • Explore changes in scale, resolution, and time-steps • Ensemble of models: woodfuel + grazing + fires 24/06/2013 ATBC-OTS Joint Meeting 2013 - Ghilardi presentation - "Modeling woodfuel impacts" 21

  22. Funding sources regarding project: • Yale Institute for Biospheric Studies (YIBS) • Global Alliance for Clean Cookstoves (GACC) Funding sources regarding case studies: • Honduras: Proyecto Mirador • Mexico: ClimateWorks and UNAM-PAPIIT C. Boulton 2012: Honduras E. Vega 2011: Mexico 24/06/2013 ATBC-OTS Joint Meeting 2013 - Ghilardi presentation - "Modeling woodfuel impacts" 22

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