forest degradation at local scales: modeling what-if scenarios Adrin - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Spatiotemporal dynamics of dry forest degradation at local scales: modeling what-if scenarios

Adrián Ghilardia,b , Jean-François Masa, Rob Bailisb

a Centro de Investigaciones en Geografía Ambiental (CIGA), UNAM b Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies

Presented at the ATBC-OTS Joint 50th Anniversary Meeting. Within the Symposium:

Tropical Secondary Dry Forests of the Americas: Tropi-Dry 10-Years of Collaborative Research

24 June 2013 in San José, Costa Rica

Broad-brush background

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• E. Jardel

(TDF)

TDF degradation drivers: Woodfuel includes fuelwood or (firewood) and charcoal

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• A. Ghilardi

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Traditional woodfuel: How many people use/depend on it?

• About 2.5±1.0 billion people rely on traditional woodfuel for

meeting their residential energy needs (either alone or in combination with kerosene, LPG, electricity, among others).

FAO

TDF degradation drivers: charcoal

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• A. Ghilardi

TDF degradation drivers: fuelwood

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• A. Ghilardi
• G. Guerrero

Motivating questions

• Under what conditions is

woodfuel exploitation sustainable?

• Can fuel switching or

efficient cookstoves reduce woodfuel-driven deforestation and forest degradation?

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• A. Ghilardi

Our current understanding…

• Woodfuel harvesting doesn't

always cause deforestation or degradation

• Impacts are very site-specific

– Intensity of extraction – Vegetation response to harvesting – Social response to scarcity

• Whole-country averages based
• n aggregate supply-demand

balances are inadequate

• Local studies do not convey

the whole picture

• A. Ghilardi, R Drigo, FAO

Spatio-temporal dynamics of woodfuel harvesting at landscape levels: NRBv1.0 Model

• Dynamic spatial modeling environment

– DINAMICA-EGO* (Soares-Filho et al. 2009)

• Still uses biomass supply and demand

– Time-steps allow repeated cycles of harvest and regrowth – Dynamic landscape response – Explicitly incorporates uncertainty and stochasticity

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* Environment for Geoprocessing Objects

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Case study #1: Western Honduras

• Honduras

– 60% population using fuelwood as primary energy carrier – 2-10% deforestation rate

• Project

– 40k stoves installed since 2004 – > 1000 stoves installed per month – Earning carbon credits

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Results: AGB and NRB under BAU conditions

Ghilardi, Bailis et al. GEC (in review)

24/06/2013

Results: AGB and NRB in w/consumption reduced 50%

Ghilardi, Bailis et al. GEC (in review)

Results: AGB and NRB in w/consumption x2

Ghilardi, Bailis et al. GEC (in review)

Validation: fieldwork

• 1. Working with local volunteers

Ghilardi, Mas, Bailis et al. AG (in review)

2004->2010 ASTER VS. 2004->2010 Model

Validation: RS

Ghilardi, Mas, Bailis et al. AG (in review)

Case study #2: Charcoal production in central Mexico: The Cuitzeo basin

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1 2 4 3 5 1 2 4 3 5

A Ghilardi T Mwampamba

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1 2 4 3 5 1 2 4 3 5

De la Pirotechnia, Vanoccio Biringuccio, 1540

A Ghilardi T Mwampamba

2000 -> 2025 5km

Animation not available in pdf. Contact adrian.ghilardi@yale.edu

On going developments (NRB v2.0)

• Calibration and Validation

– Working with fuelwood collectors as volunteers to help us better understand and model practices – Analyzing recent LCLUC time-series to determine how well NRBv1.0 matches observed changes

• Incorporate role of other drivers of LULC

– Agriculture and pasture expansion/contraction

• Demographic change & fuelwood demand elasticity
• Explore changes in scale, resolution, and time-steps
• Ensemble of models: woodfuel + grazing + fires

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Funding sources regarding project:

• Yale Institute for Biospheric Studies (YIBS)
• Global Alliance for Clean Cookstoves (GACC)

Funding sources regarding case studies:

• Honduras: Proyecto Mirador
• Mexico: ClimateWorks and UNAM-PAPIIT
• C. Boulton 2012: Honduras
• E. Vega 2011: Mexico