Forecasting the Market 1 PROF. M. BURNS, 2014 2014 FORECAST! 80% - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Forecasting the Market 1 PROF. M. BURNS, 2014 2014 FORECAST! 80% - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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NAMEPA & WGMA Present Prof. Maria G. Burns Winds of Change in Shipping February 19, 2014 Texas Southern University The Houstonian Hotel Houston - Texas Global Economy and the Shipping Industry: Forecasting the Market 1 PROF. M. BURNS,

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Global Economy and the Shipping Industry:

Forecasting the Market

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  • PROF. M. BURNS, 2014
  • Prof. Maria G. Burns

Texas Southern University

NAMEPA & WGMA Present Winds of Change in Shipping February 19, 2014 The Houstonian Hotel Houston - Texas

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SHIPS

  • 80% +of global trade is carried by water.
  • 100,000+ (oceangoing & coastal vessels).
  • 32 million ton-miles / annum.
  • 9 billion tons of cargo traded worldwide ***.

PORTS

  • 9,400 ports  2,000 major ports globally
  • Thousands of terminals

2014 FORECAST!

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THE MANY FACES OF THE

TRIPLE-E Concept

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 THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY:  New Ship Designs  New Environmental Regulations  Focus on the Triple-E Concept  LNG as Fuel  Oil Price Fluctuations  Shipbuilding Subsidies  AT A GLOBAL LEVEL:  Trade Deficit  Inflation,  Currency Manipulation  Escalating Geopolitical Tensions

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  • PROF. M. BURNS, 2014

Global Economy and the Shipping Industry:

Forecasting the Market

Shipowners Cargo Owners

Ship Builders

Governments & Policy Makers Port Authorities Classification Societies

Financing & Investment

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2014 FORECAS AST !

THE KEY DRIVERS OF THE MARITIME INDUSTRY ECONOMIES OF SCALE INNOVATION ENERGY SUPPLY & DEMAND

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SOURCE: M. BURNS - PORT MANAGEMENT AND OPERATIONS.*. CRC , 2014.

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Source: M.BURNS - PORT MANAGEMENT AND OPERATIONS.*. CRC Press, Taylor & Francis Group

FORECASTING THE SHIPPING MARKET

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COMMODITY MARKETS

TRADE AGREEMENTS

BALANCE OF TRADE

GDP (PPP) per Capita

TRANSPORT

Forecasting the Market

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$77.00 $78.00 $79.00 $80.00 $81.00 $82.00 $83.00 $84.00 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5

GDP (purchasing power parity), in trillion dollars (2010, 2011, 2012): 2010 2011 2012

0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 1 2 3

GDP – real growth rate: 2010 2011 2012

GLOBAL GROWTH RATES

$11,700 $11,800 $11,900 $12,000 $12,100 $12,200 $12,300 $12,400 $12,500 $12,600 1 2 3

GDP per capita (PPP)

2010 2011 2012 Agriculture Industry Services

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GLOBAL GROWTH ADVANCED VS. DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

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GDP (PPP) per Capita

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SOURCE: M. BURNS - PORT MANAGEMENT AND OPERATIONS.*. CRC Press, Taylor & Francis Group based on data from US Bureau Of Economic Analysis. 1980-2013,and China NBS, 2013.

5 10 15

Figure : Real GDP, USA and China. 1980-2012 Real GDP, Trillions of USD (PPP)

USA CHINA

GDP (PPP)

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100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 2003 2007 2008 2011

100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 ASIA Shanghai, China Hong Kong, China Dalian, China Shenzhen, China Ningbo, China Guangzhou, China Quingdao, China QuinHUANdao,… Tianjin, China Rizhao, China Yingkou, China Nantong, China Xiamen, China Tokyo, Japan Yokohama, Japan Chiba, Japan Nagoya, Japan Kwangyang, S.… Busan, S. Korea Ulsan, S. Korea Inchon, S. Korea Port Kelang,… Kaohsiung, Taiwan OCEANIA Newcastle,… Port Hedland,… Dampier, Australia 2003 2007 2008 2011

Figure : World’s leading Ports by Hemisphere, 2003-2013 : AUSTRALASIA VS. THE AMERICAS, EUROPE & AFRICA

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Figure 2.3 World’s Leading Ports: 2003-2013

Source: the Author based on data from World Shipping Council (2013), IMF (2013), Agência Nacional de Transportes Aquaviários - ANTAQ(Brazil), Institute of Shipping Economics & Logistics, Containerisation International Yearbook 2012; U.S. ArmCommerce Statistics Center, Secretariat of Communications and Transport (Mexico), Waterborne Transport Institute (China); AAPA Surveys ; and various port internet sites (2003-2013).

100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 1 2 3 4 5 Shanghai, China Singapore, Singapore Tianjin, China Rotterdam, Netherlands Guangzhou, China Quingdao, China Ningbo, China QuinHUANdao, China Busan, S. Korea Hong Kong, China Port Hedland, Australia South Louisiana, LA, USA Houston, USA Dalian, China Shenzhen, China Port Kelang, Malaysia Antwerp, Belgium Nagoya, Japan MGB 2014

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World’s leading Ports

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MB, NAMEPA 2014

Global sources of pollution.

POLLUTION FROM OIL SPILLS (2012)

Millions

  • f Gallons

Used Oil from Land, Municipal & Industrial Waste

363

Ships' Planned Maintenance

137

Air Pollution from Industry & Vehicles

92

Natural Seeps- hydrocarbons released

62

Spills from Maritime Accidents

37

Offshore Drilling

15

Deepwater Horizon

210

Total pollution level in Mil. Gallons:

916

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World’s leading Ports

World’s marine pollution World’s natural seeps World’s leading Economies

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ECONOMY Vs. ECOLOGY

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While the sources of anthropogenic (man-made) pollution receive considerable publicity, little is known of the naturally spilled oil and gas that the seas have been receiving and absorbing for 400 million years.

Non- Anthropogenic Pollution: Natural Seeps 60%

Anthropogenic Pollution: Extraction 2% Anthropogenic Pollution: Transportation, Refining, Distribution 4% Anthropogenic Pollution: Energy Consumption 34%

Graph : N.AMERICA SEA POLLUTION FROM OIL SPILLS

Source: compiled by M. Burns, based on data from Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, 2009 (w ww.boem.gov) and National Research Council, “Oil in the Sea” 2003 (w ww.nap.gov)

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MB, NAMEPA 2014

2013 2007

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MB, DOT 2013

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PRODUCTION (OFFSHORE, ONSHORE)

REFINERIES, PIPELINES, STORAGE

TRANSPORTATION

COMPLIANCE TO ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATIONS

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POLITICAL, MILITARY, ECONOMIC CENTERS

PRODUCTION : industrial zone, refineries. DISTRIBUTION CENTERS, Mass Storage Areas. TRANSPORTATION

I.T.

GDP, T echnology, Population

Forecasting the Market Global Areas of Growth

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POLITICAL, MILITARY, ECONOMIC CENTERS

PRODUCTION industrial zone, refineries.

DISTRIBUTION CENTERS, Mass Storage Areas.

TRANSPORTATION I.T.

Forecasting the Market National Areas of Growth

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MB, DOT 2013

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Table : World seaborne trade in 2006–2012, by type of cargo. (Millions of tons)

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Table: World seaborne trade in 2006-2012

LOADED UNLOADED

Year

Total

Crude Petroleum products and gas Dry cargo Total Crude Petroleum products and gas Dry cargo

2006 7,700.30 1,783.40 914.8 5,002.10 7,878.30 1,931.20 893.7 5,053.40 2007 8,034.10 1,813.40 933.5 5,287.10 8,140.20 1,995.70 903.8 5,240.80 2008 8,229.50 1,785.20 957 5,487.20 8,286.30 1,942.30 934.9 5,409.20 2009 7,858.00 1,710.50 931.1 5,216.40 7,832.00 1,874.10 921.3 5,036.60 2010 8,408.90 1,787.70 983.8 5,637.50 8,443.80 1,933.20 979.2 5,531.40 2011 8,747.70 1,762.40 1,033.50 5,951.90 8,769.30 1,907.00 1,038.60 5,823.70 2012 9,165.00 1,785.40 1,050.90 6,329.00 9,183.70 1,928.70 1,054.90 6,200.10

Sources: UNCTAD, Review of Maritime Transport, 2012, based on data supplied by reporting countries and as published on the relevant government, port industry websites and other specialist websites and sources.

6,000.00 7,000.00 8,000.00 9,000.00 10,000.00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Total LDG Total DSG

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

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Table : World seaborne trade in 2006–2012, by type of cargo. (Millions of tons)

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6,000.00 7,000.00 8,000.00 9,000.00 10,000.00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Total LDG Total DSG

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

0.00 2,000.00 4,000.00 6,000.00 8,000.00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Crude Petroleum products and gas Dry cargo 0.00 2,000.00 4,000.00 6,000.00 8,000.00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Crude Petroleum products and gas Dry cargo

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

CARGO LOADED CARGO UNLOADED

SOURCE: M. BURNS - PORT MANAGEMENT AND OPERATIONS.*. CRC Press, Taylor & Francis Group based on data from UNCTAD Statistics, 1980 - 2013

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Table : World seaborne trade in 2006–2012, by type of cargo. (Millions of tons)

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6,000.00 7,000.00 8,000.00 9,000.00 10,000.00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Total LDG Total DSG

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

GLOBAL FLEET CARGO UNLOADED

06 07 08 09 10 11 12

500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 10 20 30 40 Total fleet Oil tankers Bulk carriers General cargo Container ships Other types of ships

SOURCE: M. BURNS - PORT MANAGEMENT AND OPERATIONS.*. CRC Press, Taylor & Francis Group based on data from UNCTAD Statistics, 1980 - 2013

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

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PORT MANAGEMENT AND OPERATIONS.* M. BURNS . CRC Press, Taylor & Francis Group

World Commodities carried by sea, Fleet by key ship types (millions of DWT)

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Oil & Gas 1,871 1,459 1,755 2,050 2,163 2,422 2,742 2,642 2,772 2,796 3,033 5 major bulks * 608 900 988 1,105 1,295 1,709 2,065 2,085 2,335 2,477 2,547 Other dry cargo 1,123 819 1,031 1,125 1,928 2,009 2,173 2,004 2,027 2,090 2,219 Container 102 152 234 371 598 909 1,249 1,127 1,275 1,385 1,498 Source: Compiled by UNCTAD, 1980 – 2013 UNCTAD review of maritime transport 1980 – 2013

* coal, alumina-bauxite, grain and oilseeds, iron ore, phosphate

2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Oil & Gas 5 major bulks Other dry cargo Container

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ECONOMIC IMPACT

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ECONOMY Drilling rig activity

Compiled based on www.data.bsee.gov, 2013

85-86-87-88-89-90-91-92-93-94-95-96-97-98-99-00-01-02-03-04-05-06-07-08-09-10-11-12

Year Oil Gas 1985 6.009 0.834 1986 5.365 0.912 1987 5.211 0.978 1988 4.31 0.835 1989 3.564 0.687 1990 4.421 0.621 1991 7.764 1.241 1992 12.23 1.876 1993 11.91 2.575 1994 13.3 3.306 1995 15.99 3.788 1996 19.57 5.48 1997 26.36 7.419 1998 35.84 11.1 1999 45.45 16.71 2000 51.84 20.14 2001 56.44 23.28 2002 61.38 28.43 2003 62.36 32.19 2004 64.99 34.85 2005 69.72 37.7 2006 72.3 37.43

2007 70.1 36.51

2008 73.85 42.86 2009 80.22 44.99 2010 81.28 47.32

2011 78.55 46.77 2012 79.09 47.22

FORECASTIN G THE MARKET VIA COMMODITIES

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Source: M.BURNS - PORT MANAGEMENT AND OPERATIONS.*. CRC Press, Taylor & Francis Group

COMMODITY MARKETS

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Source: M.BURNS - PORT MANAGEMENT AND OPERATIONS.*. CRC Press, Taylor & Francis Group

COMMODITY MARKETS

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Source: M.BURNS - PORT MANAGEMENT AND OPERATIONS.*. CRC Press, Taylor & Francis Group

COMMODITY MARKETS

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Source: M.BURNS - PORT MANAGEMENT AND OPERATIONS.*. CRC Press, Taylor & Francis Group

COMMODITY MARKETS

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ENERGY MARKETS 200 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

CRUDE OIL ($/BBL)

20 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

GAS ($mmbtu)

10 20 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

LNG ($/mmbtu)

200 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

COAL ($/mt)

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Source: M.BURNS - PORT MANAGEMENT AND OPERATIONS.*. CRC Press, Taylor & Francis Group

ENERGY MARKETS

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Global Economy and the Shipping Industry:

Forecasting the Market

. . .
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  • PROF. M. BURNS, 2014
  • Prof. Maria G. Burns

Faculty - Certified Maritime Auditor (HSQE) TEXAS SOUTHERN UNIVERSITY Houston - TX 77004 Office Tel: 713-313-6784 Cell : 832-663-2746 E-mail: burnsm@tsu.edu