FORECASTING CASH FLOW NEEDS DURING TIMES OF TURBULENCE PRESENTED - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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FORECASTING CASH FLOW NEEDS DURING TIMES OF TURBULENCE PRESENTED - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

FORECASTING CASH FLOW NEEDS DURING TIMES OF TURBULENCE PRESENTED BY AUDRA GAIZIUNAS OWNER, BREWED FOR HER LEDGER LLC BREWERS ASSOCIATION POWER HOUR APRIL 2020 THE PROCESS Items you will need for cash flow forecasting: Current balance


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SLIDE 1

FORECASTING CASH FLOW NEEDS DURING TIMES OF TURBULENCE

PRESENTED BY AUDRA GAIZIUNAS

OWNER, BREWED FOR HER LEDGER LLC BREWERS ASSOCIATION POWER HOUR APRIL 2020

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SLIDE 2

THE PROCESS

  • Items you will need for cash flow forecasting:
  • Current balance sheet (as of 4/1/20 or today)
  • Current payroll schedule by position and pay rate
  • Amortization table for long-term debt (in Excel format, if possible)
  • 2020 budget by month (or 2019 P&L by month)
  • P&L results for Jan-Mar 2020 by month

DISCLAIMER: Brewed For Her Ledger, LLC makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the results obtained from the use of this information. Brewed For Her Ledger, LLC shall have no liability for the accuracy of the information and cannot be held liable for any third-party claims or losses of any damages. Any reliance you place on such material is therefore strictly at your own risk.

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SLIDE 3

THE STEPS

  • 1. Export the 2020 budget from QBO, Xero, Obeer by month with total for the year. The categorizations are key.
  • 1a. In absence of 2020 budget, export 2019 P&L by month.
  • 2. Overwrite Jan, Feb, Mar 2020 budget numbers with actuals.
  • 3. Run a sales report for at least two weeks since closure, then double it for a month's equivalent results. Input those figures for April, May, June 2020.
  • 4. Estimate new revenue numbers for 90 days for all other categories.
  • 5. Pull COGS percentages from Ekos, Vicinity, Obeer, and apply to new revenue figures in COVID section.
  • 6. Review and revise operational expenses line by line. Some items will go away, while others are fixed.
  • 7. Plot out your personnel plan for the closure using the personnel tab.
  • 8. Evaluate results for the 90-day closure period, then as a whole for the rest of the year.
  • 9. In the cash flow statement, cell E28, input all cash available in bank from all sources. Subtract outstanding checks and add deposits in transit.
  • 10. Evaluate cash flow needs based on operational deficiencies as they flow through the rest of the year.
  • 11. Create a debt schedule based on current debt obligations (A/P, current debt not eligible for deferral via negotiations and lending institution).
  • 12. Calculate EIDL request amount. Decide whether or not to include PPP.
  • 13. Create amortization table for EIDL loan in loan schedule tab.
  • 14. Create projections for another 24 months to prove financial viability (months 13-36 or 13-40).
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SLIDE 4

TAKING TIME FOR REVIEW AND REDESIGN

  • Be sure to use divisional accounting to track profitability by each arm of the

brewery

  • Revise your COA
  • Are your current success metrics still relevant?
  • Understand your fixed overhead
  • Review POS entry as it relates to the accounts in your COA
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SLIDE 5

EXAMPLE BREWING COMPANY INCOME STATEMENT JANUARY 1 – DECEMBER 31, 2018

Income Gross Receipts Sales- Bar Sale Bar Non-Alc 4,917.24 Sales Bar Guest Beer 7,771.74 Sales Bar Liquor 45,054.19 Sales Bar-Wine 11,209.18 Total Sales- Bar $ 68,952.35 Sales- Beer Self Distribution Festival Beer 485.32 Kegged Beer 28,982.94 Packaged Beer 31,046.04 Total Sales- Beer Self Distribution $ 60,514.30 Sales- Beer to Wholesaler Sales- Kegged Beer 6,488.24 Sales- Packaged Beer 46,724.98 Total Sales- Beer to Wholesaler $ 53,213.22 Sales- Merchandise Taproom Merchandise Sales 14,650.44 Total Sales- Merchandise $ 14,650.44 Sales- POS to Wholesaler 0.00 Sales- Rentals/Special Events 25.00 Sales- Restaurant 210,855.02 Sales- Taproom Beer 248,892.53 Total Gross Receipts $ 657,102.86 Taproom Discounts, Refunds, Comps

  • 40,957.90

Total Income $ 616,144.96

Cost of Goods Sold Canning Contract 10,801.63 Cost of Goods Sold Bar 12,329.56 Cost of Goods Sold- Beer Self Distribution Kegged Beer 3,702.25 Packaged Beer 9,790.42 Total Cost of Goods Sold- Beer Self Distribution $ 13,492.67 Cost of Goods Sold- Beer to Wholesaler COGS- Bulk Beer 1,085.00 COGS- Kegged Beer 2,276.04 COGS- Packaged Beer 23,930.79 Total Cost of Goods Sold- Beer to Wholesaler $ 27,291.83 Inventory Variance- Raw Materials 19.99 Restaurant 41,876.87 Taproom Transfer 13,578.74 Total Cost of Goods Sold $ 108,589.66 Merchandise Cost Merchandise Purchases 3,427.36 Total Merchandise Cost $ 3,427.36 Other Brewery Production Costs Production Repairs and Maintenance 2,684.25 Production Salaries and Wages 32,332.71 Production Supplies 60.00 Total Other Brewery Production Costs $ 35,076.96 Pilot Batches/Research & Development 1,723.32 Restaurant Salaries and Wages Back of House 69,968.42 Front of House 40,526.99 Total Restaurant Salaries and Wages $ 110,495.41 Taproom Event COGS 500.00 Total Cost of Goods Sold $ 270,614.34 Gross Profit $ 345,530.62

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SLIDE 6

BEST PRACTICES FOR SALES, GEN, ADMIN $

  • Create a reconciliation schedule for all EIDL and PPP funds
  • Use a holding account if you have one
  • Weekly drawdowns with oversight sign-off
  • Focus on those activities that generate fastest cash inflows
  • Best practices for SG&A management
  • Refocus on efficiency
  • Tend to spend more on SG&A as we increase gross margin; understand why
  • Align overhead spend with future demand
  • Eliminate, automate, consolidate
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SLIDE 7

THE BALANCE SHEET

Key ratios to track (liquidity and efficiency)

  • Working Capital: Current assets – current liabilities
  • Current Ratio: Current assets / current liabilities
  • Quick Ratio: Current assets less inventory, prepaids / current liabilities
  • Inventory Turnover: COGS for year / average inventory for year
  • Days’ Sales in Inventory: 365 days in year / inventory turnover for year
  • Debt to Equity: Total liabilities / total stockholders’ equity
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SLIDE 8

WORKING CAPITAL

  • Interest free with no conditions; the cheapest and fastest source of cash
  • Managing working capital
  • Manage inventory
  • Streamline and centralize ordering
  • Review pricing and contracts regularly
  • Optimize stock levels based on forecasted demand
  • Practice JIT (know your optimal reorder points and optimal order quantities)
  • Set KPIs by department; review monthly
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SLIDE 9

CONTACT INFO

Audra.Gaiziunas@gmail.com / 919-538-4404

Brewedforherledger.com