for Asia-Pacific Yuriy Kuleshov 1,2,3 , Toshiyuki Kurino 4 and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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for Asia-Pacific Yuriy Kuleshov 1,2,3 , Toshiyuki Kurino 4 and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Apr 05, 2023 370 likes •981 views

AOMSUC-10 Melbourne, Australia 2-7 December 2019 Space-based Weather and Climate Extremes Monitoring Demonstration Project (SEMDP) for Asia-Pacific Yuriy Kuleshov 1,2,3 , Toshiyuki Kurino 4 and Werner Balogh 4 1 Australian Bureau of

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Space-based Weather and Climate Extremes Monitoring Demonstration Project (SEMDP) for Asia-Pacific

1 Australian Bureau of Meteorology 2 Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology (RMIT) University 3 The University of Melbourne 4 World Meteorological Organization

AOMSUC-10 Melbourne, Australia 2-7 December 2019

Yuriy Kuleshov1,2,3, Toshiyuki Kurino4 and Werner Balogh4

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Outline

  • Introduction to SEMDP
  • Early achievements of SEMDP regional cooperation
  • SEMDP links
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SEMDP Space-based Weather and Climate Extremes Monitoring Demonstration Project

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Introduction - SEMDP

  • Recognizing high impact of weather and climate

extremes on society, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) initiated the Space-based Weather and Climate Extremes Monitoring (SWCEM) Demonstration Project (SEMDP).

  • Provision of timely and accurate information on

monitoring and prediction of extreme events helps to build greater resilience of society against drought, floods, storms and

  • ther

hydro-meteorological hazards.

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Introduction - SEMDP

The Workshop on Space-based Weather and Climate Extremes Monitoring (SWCEM) was held in Geneva, Switzerland on 15- 17 February, 2017.

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Introduction - SEMDP

The Workshop provided a dialogue amongst satellite

  • perators, WMO Regional Climate Centres (RCCs),

National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs), and the science community to stimulate the utilization of space-based observation data and products for monitoring selected weather and climate extremes (heavy rainfall and drought in particular)

  • n a routine basis (“in operations”), in response to

current and future user requirements.

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Introduction - SEMDP

  • Following the workshop’s recommendations, WMO

Executive Council at its sixty ninth session (EC-69), Decision 6 agreed on importance of Space-based Extreme Weather and Climate Extremes Monitoring (SWCEM)

  • EC-70, Decision 36 – Development of the Space-based

Weather and Climate Extremes Monitoring Demonstration Project (SEMDP) in WMO RA II and RA V

  • The SEMDP was established to run in demonstration phase

for two years (2018-2019) and be focused on weather and climate extremes such as drought and heavy precipitations

  • ver East Asia and Western Pacific.
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Introduction - SEMDP

  • WMO Cg-18 - recognizing significant achievements
  • f

SEMDP in Asia-Pacific, adopted project implementation plan for 2020-2021

  • WMO Cg-18 – to progress with the implementation of

the SWCEM regional operational subproject in East Asia and Western Pacific

  • WMO Cg-18 – to consider the possibility of

implementing similar projects in Africa (RA I) and South America (RA III)

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Early achievements of SEMDP regional cooperation

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SEMDP Products

SEMDP is concentrated on products at national and regional levels in Asia-Pacific:

  • monitoring drought and accumulated heavy precipitation;
  • making best use of existing and newly developed satellite

derived products and time series of measurements;

  • making best use of products that combine satellite

information with in-situ and/or model reanalysis data;

  • recommendations as to which products should be

transitioned from research to operations, including an assessment of those products.

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Global Satellite-derived Product Providers

  • Global Satellite-derived Product Providers for SEMDP –

JAXA and NOAA

  • EORC/JAXA provides the Global Satellite Mapping of

Precipitation (GSMaP; Kubota et al. 2007) data for detecting extreme precipitation

  • GSMaP data are available since March 2000; thresholds for

detecting the extreme events are calculated using the GSMaP data during 19 years from March 2000 to February 2019.

Kubota T, Shige S, Hashizume H, Aonashi K, Takahashi N, Seto S, Hirose M, Takayabu YN, Ushio T, Nakagawa K, Iwanami K, Kachi M & Okamoto K. Global Precipitation Map Using Satellite-borne Microwave Radiometers by the GSMaP Project: Production and Validation. IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing. 2007:45(7, part 2):2259-2275. DOI: 10.1109/TGRS.2007.895337

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Global Satellite-derived Product Providers

  • CPC/NOAA provides SEMDP users with a similar set of

products using the Climate Prediction Center morphing technique (CMORPH; Xie et al. 2017); satellite precipitation estimates are available since 1998.

  • In addition to precipitation estimates, derived products – the

SPI, the NDVI and the VHI are also available for the SEMDP region.

  • Analysis of GSMaP and CMORPH data for SEMDP region

demonstrated that extreme events could be successfully detected using space-based estimations of precipitation.

Xie P, Joyce R, Wu S, Yoo S-H, Yarosh Y, Sun F & Lin R. Reprocessed, Bias-Corrected CMORPH Global High-Resolution Precipitation Estimates from 1998. Journal of Hydrometeorology. 2017:18(6):1617-1641. DOI: 10.1175/JHM-D-16-0168.1.

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SEMDP Operational Products

EORC/JAXA GSMaP 10-day average precipitation, mm/day (11-20 Nov 2019)

Mean precipitation estimates hourly daily (00-23UTC) pentad (5-day) weekly (Monday– Sunday) 10-days monthly Statistics: Climate normal 90th ～ 99th Percentiles Percentage

  • f

rainy days (>=1mm/day) in a month Indices: SPI, NDVI, VHI

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Extreme Precipitation Monitoring Using SEMDP Products

EORC/JAXA GSMaP monitoring of extreme rainfall for daily, pentad and weekly precipitation, e.g. 8-12 October 2018.

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Drought Monitoring Using SEMDP Products

CPC/NOAA CMORPH 60-day and 90-day SPI ending at December 2nd, 2018.

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Drought Monitoring Using SEMDP Products

CPC/NOAA CMORPH VHI for 1-7 January 2015 and 3-9 December 2015.

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Drought Monitoring Using SEMDP Products

Rainfall deciles for Australia in August 2007; BoM rain gauge

  • bservations.

SPI for Australia in August 2007 derived from the EORC/JAXA GSMaP data.

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Heavy Precipitation Monitoring Using SEMDP Products

Australian rainfall deciles for December 2010; BoM rain gauge

  • bservations.

EORC/JAXA GSMaP rainfall percentile

  • ver Australia for December 2010.
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The 2015-2016 drought in PNG

  • In PNG, severe drought caused by strong El Niño event in

2015-2016 affected about 40% of the population with almost half a million people impacted by food shortages

  • Staple sweet potato crops in the highlands were severely

damaged by frosts in August 2015 – the result of El Niño reducing night-time cloud cover – which also destroyed wild plants that are usually eaten as a supplement source of food.

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PNG surface-based observations

In PNG, surface-based observations are available from a very limited number of meteorological stations

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Drought Monitoring Using SEMDP Products

Rainfall anomaly (the difference from average) and rainfall percentage for October 2015 demonstrate severe drought conditions in PNG. Results show that a warning of extreme rainfall deficits possible utilising satellite observations Drought monitoring in PNG using EORC/JAXA GSMaP data.

Rainfall in October 2015 Rainfall anomaly in October 2015 Rainfall percentage in October 2015

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Drought Monitoring Using SEMDP Products

Drought monitoring in PNG using EORC/JAXA GSMaP data. Satellite data are used to derive drought indices such as SPI, NVDI, and VHI, measuring how much greenery and how water stressed is the landscape. 3-month VHI till October 2015 clearly indicates that PNG vegetation is stressed giving warning of high impacts.

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Summary

 WMO SEMDP  Drought monitoring and Heavy precipitation monitoring  Satellite precipitation estimates – EORC/JAXA and CPC/NOAA  Derived products and indices e.g. SPI, NDVI, VHI  SEMDP products - encouraging results  WMO Cg18 – transition of SEMDP to operations

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Acknowledgement

  • CMORPH products – CPC/NOAA
  • GSMaP products – EORC/JAXA
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SEMDP Links

  • WMO Portal

https://public.wmo.int/en/space-based-weather-and- climate-extremes-monitoring-swcem

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SEMDP Links – WMO Portal

https://public.wmo.int/en/space-based-weather-and- climate-extremes-monitoring-swcem

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SEMDP Links – Satellite-derived products

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SEMDP Links – EORC/JAXA GSMaP

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SEMDP Links – EORC/JAXA GSMaP

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SEMDP Links – EORC/JAXA GSMaP

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SEMDP Links – EORC/JAXA GSMaP

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SEMDP Links – EORC/JAXA GSMaP

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SEMDP Links – EORC/JAXA GSMaP

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SEMDP Links – EORC/JAXA GSMaP

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SEMDP Links – EORC/JAXA GSMaP

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BoM - Rainfall Deciles January 2011

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SEMDP Links – EORC/JAXA GSMaP

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SEMDP Links – EORC/JAXA GSMaP

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SEMDP Links – EORC/JAXA GSMaP

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SEMDP Links – EORC/JAXA GSMaP

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SEMDP Links – EORC/JAXA GSMaP

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SEMDP Links – EORC/JAXA GSMaP

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SEMDP Links – EORC/JAXA GSMaP

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BoM - Rainfall Deciles JJA 2007

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SEMDP Links – EORC/JAXA GSMaP

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SEMDP Links – EORC/JAXA GSMaP

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SEMDP Links – EORC/JAXA GSMaP

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SEMDP Links – EORC/JAXA GSMaP

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SEMDP Links – EORC/JAXA GSMaP

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BoM – Rainfall August 2007

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Australian Bushfires 2019

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Australian Bushfires 2019

Bushfires are burning in Australia, feeding off high temperatures and winds and low humidity and soil moisture. Bushfires have caused casualties, devastated homes and ecosystems and caused air quality problems.

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Australian Bushfires 2019

High levels of smoke pollution continues to travel thousands

  • f kilometres, with plumes of smoke reaching across the

Pacific and all the way to South America.

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Australian Rainfall Deciles 18 months May 2018–October 2019

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Monthly mean maximum temperature anomaly for Australia, October 2019

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SEMDP Links – CPC/NOAA CMORPH

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SEMDP Links – CPC/NOAA CMORPH

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SEMDP Links – CPC/NOAA CMORPH

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SEMDP Links – NOAA/NESDIS VHI

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SEMDP Group Discussion Session

  • Identify historical

(i) heavy precipitation event, and (ii) drought event for your country

  • Select GSMaP products which will assist you with

rainfall monitoring of the events

  • Select rain gauge-based products from NMHS of your

country which will assist you to verify space-based estimates

  • Produce a repot describing the events and comment of

usefulness of SEMDP products to monitor them