Food Security under Globalized Economy ‐ Roles of Science and Technology Cooperation ‐ gy p Osamu Koyama y Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences (JIRCAS) for Agricultural Sciences (JIRCAS)
Key message Availability Access Utilization Utilization (productivity, (income, equity, (safety, quality) stability) social safety net) Positive aspects Negative aspects Globalized economy Maximize Minimize Global public goods Science and technology Others ……
Main Issues to be Discussed 1. Food markets in the globalized economy What did we learn from the last turmoil? What did we learn from the last turmoil? 2. Implications of the globalization for food security Is the globalization good for food security? 3. Competition and coexistence in world agriculture p g How do we optimize the globalized society? 4 Roles of science and technology cooperation 4. Roles of science and technology cooperation How should Japan act ?
Long term changes in international food price in US$ Long-term changes in international food price in US$ USD/t USD/t 1,000 Rice Soybeans 900 Wheat 800 Maize 700 600 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009
Food price hike in 2007 ‐ 2008 Food price hike in 2007 2008 • Policies to promote biofuels • Linkages between financial and commodity Linkages between financial and commodity markets Global phenomena • Main driving force behind Fundamental M i d i i f b hi d F d l supply ‐ demand situation • Relatively tight situation may continue for some R l ti l ti ht it ti ti f period.
Relation between crude oil price and corn price p p Source: FAO SoFA (2008)
Lessons learnt from the crisis Lessons learnt from the crisis • Stable food supply has to be one of the most St bl f d l h t b f th t prioritized policy targets. • Low income food importing countries were revealed to be unprotected and vulnerable revealed to be unprotected and vulnerable against price instability. • Export restrictions were recognized as i i i d inevitable and sometimes acceptable policy options. International solutions have to be pursued International solutions have to be pursued.
Consumer Price Index by commodity groups (2005=100) y y g p ( ) index 120 120 Bread Oils, fats & 110 seasonings Food Soybean products Dairy products 100 & eggs General Rice 90 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009
Consumer Price Index by commodity groups (2005=100) y y g p ( ) index 160 160 Cheese 150 Spaghetti 140 Instant 130 noodles noodles White bread 120 Edible oil 110 Soy sauce 100 Soybean paste Soybean paste 90 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009
Result of opinion poll on food security in Japan p p y p 100 2008 policy % % 90 90 2006 1996 2000 80 80 for SS 1990 1993 upport 70 1987 Su 60 30 40 50 60 SSR in Calorie basis %
Long term changes in international food price in Yen term Long-term changes in international food price in Yen term 1 000yen/t 1,000yen/t 200 Rice 180 Soybeans y 160 Wheat 140 Maize 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1974 1974 1979 1979 1984 1984 1989 1989 1994 1994 1999 1999 2004 2004 2009 2009
International wheat price and market price in China International wheat price and market price in China RMB/t 3,000 2,500 , 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 500 Wheat (Chicago) Wheat (China) 0 Jan Jan Apr Apr Jul Jul Oct Oct Jan Jan Apr Apr Jul Jul Oct Oct Jan Jan Apr Apr Jul Jul Oct Oct Jan Jan Apr Apr 2006 2007 2008 2009
Domestic wheat price and international price (US$) Source: FAO
Number of hungry people in the world (in millions) Number of hungry people in the world (in millions) Source: FAO
Estimated regional distribution of hunger in 2009 (in mil.) and increase from 2008 levels (in %) Source: FAO
Concept of Food Security Concept of Food Security Available Available Edible Accessible F t Future risk i k Present threat Instability y
A framework for understanding food security Food ecurity mes Food se outco Availability Access Utilization s/factors Resources Productivity Income Consumption Human capital omes red outco Desi condition Enhanced Enhanced Enhanced community resiliency livelihood capacities human capacities ty risks Natural Economic Social & health ood securit Fo Enhancing people’s capacities to overcome political risks Food insecurity Source: Webb and Rogers, 2003.
Cereal yield per ha in LDCs is declining Cereal yield per ha in LDCs is declining kg/ha 4,000 3,500 3,000 Africa 2 500 2,500 Asia 2,000 1 500 1,500 Least Developed 1,000 Countries 500 0 961 964 967 970 973 976 979 982 985 988 991 994 997 000 003 006 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20
LDCs are paying for imported food LDCs are paying for imported food billion USD billion USD 25 20 15 10 5 0 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 Import Value Export Value
Returns to investment in agricultural R&D are estimated to be very high. • 43 % (average of 1673 cases) (Alston and others, 2000) • If so, why is it underfunded? • Public goods: commercially unprofitable P bli d i ll fi bl • Risky and long ‐ term: politically unattractive y g p y • Borderless spillover: free riding is safer. • Somebody must provide them. Somebody must provide them.
Public agricultural R&D expenditure Public agricultural R&D expenditure Regional gaps enlarge Public R&D Public R&D % Ag. GDP % Ag. GDP 1981 1981 2000 2000 1981 1981 2000 2000 Developing 6,904 12,819 0.52 0.53 Sub ‐ Saharan Africa 1,196 1,461 0.84 0.72 Asia and Pacific 3,047 7,523 0.36 0.41 West Asia and N. Africa 764 1,382 0.61 0.66 L. America and Caribbean 1,897 2,454 0.88 1.15 Developed 8,293 12,819 1.41 2.36 Japan Japan 1 832 1,832 3 828 3,828 1 45 1.45 3 62 3.62 Source: WDR 2008 Unit: million Int’l $ % Unit: million Int’l $, %
Position of Agricultural Support in G8 Position of Agricultural Support in G8 （ Hokkaido Toyako Summit 7, July 2008 ） G8 Leaders Statement on Global Food Security (excerpt) ・・ promote agricultural research and development, and the training of a ne training of a new generation of developing country scientists generation of de eloping co ntr scientists and experts via the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) ・・ ・・ accelerate research and development and increase access to new agricultural technologies to boost agricultural production; we will promote science based risk analysis production; we will promote science-based risk analysis including on the contribution of seed varieties developed through biotechnology. ・・ accelerate development and commercialization of sustainable second-generation biofuels from non-food plant materials and inedible biomass materials and inedible biomass 22 22
Who is the main actors in S&T development? p Globalized society Multi-nationals International bodies Intellectual property Scientific collaboration Public goods Institutions Cooperative Competitive Infrastructure society society society society L Local market l k t R Rural communities l iti Commercial innovation Knowledge sharing Local society
Key message Availability Access Utilization Utilization (productivity, (income, equity, (safety, quality) stability) social safety net) Positive aspects Negative aspects Globalized economy Maximize Minimize Global public goods Science and technology Others ……
Bilateral Official Development Assistance for agriculture Bilateral Official Development Assistance for agriculture Per cent for Agriculture (2007) Per cent for Agriculture (2007) Total amount for Agriculture (2007) Total amount for Agriculture (2007) % mill.USD 0 2 4 6 8 10 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 Australia A t li Australia Canada Canada France France Germany Germany Italy Italy Japan Japan U.K. U.K. United States United States Source: OECD,DAC
Japan's Contribution to the CGIAR Research Agenda Japan s Contribution to the CGIAR Research Agenda mil USD % 45.0 16.0 40.0 14.0 35.0 12.0 30.0 10.0 25.0 8.0 20.0 6.0 15 0 15.0 4.0 10.0 2.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Amount (mil USD) Share (%)
Activities of JIRCAS Univ. NARS in Japan in Japan Aidi Aiding agencies IARCs NARS Univ. Developing regions Developing regions
Conclusions Conclusions 1 Provision of global public goods is 1. Provision of global public goods is indispensable for creating a well balanced globalized society. l b li d i 2. Agricultural research is one of the most g effective ways to enhance food availability as well as food accessibility well as food accessibility. 3. Japan , the largest net food importer, must play a key role in providing global public goods in agriculture. g g
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