with the patronage FEEDING THE WORLD: THE ROLE OF THE OCEANS AND WATER RESOURCES Alessandro Lovatelli , Aquaculture Officer, FAO United Nations www.pianeta-acqua.com
FEEDING THE WORLD: THE ROLE OF THE OCEANS & WATER RESOURCES FAR TOO MUCH TO COVER!!!! • Demand for fish today and tomorrow • Supply: Capture fisheries vs. aquaculture • Main challenges in fish production Space, technology and the environment • ACTIONS Alessandro Lovatelli, Aquaculture Officer, FAO United Nations www.pianeta-acqua.com
FEEDING THE WORLD: THE ROLE OF THE OCEANS & WATER RESOURCES Alessandro Lovatelli, Aquaculture Officer, FAO United Nations www.pianeta-acqua.com
FEEDING THE WORLD: THE ROLE OF THE OCEANS & WATER RESOURCES What OCEANS give to us All kinds of Provisioning, Regulating, Cultural and Supporting services. • Fish and plants as a source of protein and micronutrients (FOOD) • Pharmaceutical compounds (MEDICAL CURES) • Fixation of atmospheric carbon by algae • Regulation of the climate and weather trends • Provide mass transportation routes • Provide pleasure and wellbeing (RECREATION) etc , etc , etc , etc . ………………………………………………………………………………………..….. MORE??? Alessandro Lovatelli, Aquaculture Officer, FAO United Nations www.pianeta-acqua.com
FEEDING THE WORLD: THE ROLE OF THE OCEANS & WATER RESOURCES Rio+20 ” The Future We Want ” Declaration 113 The crucial role of sustainable fisheries THE OBJECTIVE IS: Maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem services while feeding the world Alessandro Lovatelli, Aquaculture Officer, FAO United Nations www.pianeta-acqua.com
FEEDING THE WORLD: THE ROLE OF THE OCEANS & WATER RESOURCES The future ahead of us ? Alessandro Lovatelli, Aquaculture Officer, FAO United Nations www.pianeta-acqua.com
FEEDING THE WORLD: THE ROLE OF THE OCEANS & WATER RESOURCES ………… is this our FUTURE ? WORLD POPULATION = Alessandro Lovatelli, Aquaculture Officer, FAO United Nations www.pianeta-acqua.com
FEEDING THE WORLD: THE ROLE OF THE OCEANS & WATER RESOURCES ………… is this our FUTURE ? HUNGER INCREASE?? = MORE FOOD NEEDED = Alessandro Lovatelli, Aquaculture Officer, FAO United Nations www.pianeta-acqua.com
FEEDING THE WORLD: THE ROLE OF THE OCEANS & WATER RESOURCES A glance at CAPTURE FISHERIES 1948-49 1997-98 Dramatic biomass decline THE MESSAGE IS: Alessandro Lovatelli, Aquaculture Officer, FAO United Nations www.pianeta-acqua.com
FEEDING THE WORLD: THE ROLE OF THE OCEANS & WATER RESOURCES Can FISHERIES supply more? Global trends in the state of world marine stocks since 1974 70 Percentage of stocks assessed 60 50 40 30 20 Non-fully exploited 10 Fully exploited Overexploited 0 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 THE MESSAGE IS: Maximum sustainable potential from wild capture fisheries in the oceans has been reached! Alessandro Lovatelli, Aquaculture Officer, FAO United Nations www.pianeta-acqua.com
FEEDING THE WORLD: THE ROLE OF THE OCEANS & WATER RESOURCES How much are we producing TODAY ! Alessandro Lovatelli, Aquaculture Officer, FAO United Nations www.pianeta-acqua.com
FEEDING THE WORLD: THE ROLE OF THE OCEANS & WATER RESOURCES FISH supply today and TOMORROW ! 2010 2030 World Fish Production Fish Supply (mt) (baseline) (projection) 100 Millions tonnes 90 Aquaculture 59 123 80 Capture fisheries Capture fisheries 88 88 70 60 Total supply 147 211 50 % of aquaculture: 40 58 40 Aquaculture 30 Source : Estimation of FAO/FI Department 20 10 ASSUMPTIONS: - 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 • Aquaculture follow recent trend Source: FAO FISHSTAT • Capture fisheries remain stationary 211 million mt fish in 2030 QUESTION: Is the supply enough to feed future population ? Alessandro Lovatelli, Aquaculture Officer, FAO United Nations www.pianeta-acqua.com
FEEDING THE WORLD: THE ROLE OF THE OCEANS & WATER RESOURCES FISH demand ( population growth only ) World Population 2007 2030 Fish Demand (mt) (baseline) (projection) 9 Billion World Africa 9.0 14.0 8 Asia 86.4 96.3 7 Africa Europe 19.4 19.9 6 L.A. & C. 15.2 16.4 Asia 5 Northern America 9.1 10.7 4 Europe Oceania 1.1 1.4 3 World 140.3 158.8 Latin America Source : Estimation of FAO/FI Department 2 and Caribbean 1 Northern Maintaining the baseline America - 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 consumption in every country, 159 2030 2010 million tonnes of fish needed to feed 0.6% 4.8% 5.0% 0.5% world population in 2030. 8.9% 10.7% 8.4% 8.6% Total supply (211 mt) > Total 18.8% 58.5% 14.8% 60.4% demand (159 mt) Source: UN (2010 revision) Alessandro Lovatelli, Aquaculture Officer, FAO United Nations www.pianeta-acqua.com
FEEDING THE WORLD: THE ROLE OF THE OCEANS & WATER RESOURCES Demand ( population & income growth ) Population growth 9 Billion 8 World 2007 2030 Fish Demand (mt) 7 (baseline) (projection) Africa 6 Asia 5 Africa 9.0 18.7 Europe 4 L.A. & C. Asia 86.4 186.3 3 N. America 2 Europe 19.4 23.4 Oceania 1 L.A. & C. 15.2 18.3 - 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Northern America 9.1 12.9 Growth of GDP per capita: 2010-2020 Oceania 1.1 1.8 8.0 World 140.3 261.2 6.0 Source : Estimation of FAO/FI Department 4.0 % 2.0 0.0 Africa Asia Europe L.A. & C. N. America Oceania World Alessandro Lovatelli, Aquaculture Officer, FAO United Nations www.pianeta-acqua.com
FEEDING THE WORLD: THE ROLE OF THE OCEANS & WATER RESOURCES Fish supply–demand GAPs Per capita fish demand estimated • S-D gap Supply Demand S-D gap based on assumptions: (mt) 2030 2030 2030 – GDP per capita projection by IMF – Prices unchanged Africa 11.7 18.7 -7.0 – Preference unchanged Asia 156.5 186.3 -29.8 Total fish demand estimated based on: • Europe 18.6 23.4 -4.8 – Estimated per capita demand – UN population projection in 2030 L.A. & C. 16.2 18.3 -2.1 – Non-food fish demand unchanged Northern A. 6.2 12.9 -6.6 Results: • Oceania 1.5 1.8 -0.3 – Supply < Demand • 51 mt shortage World 210.7 261.2 -50.6 – S-D gaps decline in all regions Source: Estimation of FI Department • Largest insufficiency in Asia Alessandro Lovatelli, Aquaculture Officer, FAO United Nations www.pianeta-acqua.com
FEEDING THE WORLD: THE ROLE OF THE OCEANS & WATER RESOURCES The publication launched in China earlier this year Focus on projections for the years 2013-2022 Food Fish Supply and Demand Gaps 350 Millions metric tonnes 300 Supply from culture (actual) Supply from capture (actual) 250 Supply from culture (potential) 200 Supply from capture (potential) 150 Consumption (actual demand) Demand (2007 level) 100 Demand (population growth only ) 50 Demand (both population and income The increase will be growth) - 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 driven by aquaculture Alessandro Lovatelli, Aquaculture Officer, FAO United Nations www.pianeta-acqua.com
FEEDING THE WORLD: THE ROLE OF THE OCEANS & WATER RESOURCES Bridge the supply-demand from ... ? ? ? Land-based & mariculture FARMING THE OCEANS Alessandro Lovatelli, Aquaculture Officer, FAO United Nations www.pianeta-acqua.com
FEEDING THE WORLD: THE ROLE OF THE OCEANS & WATER RESOURCES World inland aquaculture and mariculture production 23% 43% Alessandro Lovatelli, Aquaculture Officer, FAO United Nations www.pianeta-acqua.com
FEEDING THE WORLD: THE ROLE OF THE OCEANS & WATER RESOURCES Main CHALLENGES • Land and water • Cost and energy efficient productivity • Ecosystem impacts • Feeds : Fishmeal and Fish Oil • Technology and knowledge • Biosecurity and health • Finance and investment • Conducive policy Alessandro Lovatelli, Aquaculture Officer, FAO United Nations www.pianeta-acqua.com
FEEDING THE WORLD: THE ROLE OF THE OCEANS & WATER RESOURCES CHALLENGE: Land and water • Recently released FAO publication • Global potential (worked on selected species) • Potential based on a number of physical and biological parameters • Also based on current cost factors, i.e. the economics of doing marine farming today Alessandro Lovatelli, Aquaculture Officer, FAO United Nations www.pianeta-acqua.com
FEEDING THE WORLD: THE ROLE OF THE OCEANS & WATER RESOURCES What does the present status of mariculture indicate about its future potential Offshore areas are largely unused for mariculture • 44% of maritime nations/territories are not practicing mariculture • 0.3 million km of coast where mariculture is not yet practiced • About 1/3 of inshore mariculture production is plants, but there is as • yet little attention to the production of plants (or of fish or shellfish) offshore Of (93) countries and territories • already practicing mariculture, 51% produce less than 1 mt/km of coastline These observations suggest that • there is potential for the development mariculture Alessandro Lovatelli, Aquaculture Officer, FAO United Nations www.pianeta-acqua.com
FEEDING THE WORLD: THE ROLE OF THE OCEANS & WATER RESOURCES Where do we go if there’s no SPACE Sharing space IMTA Commercial shipping Animal viewing areas Cable runs Alessandro Lovatelli, Aquaculture Officer, FAO United Nations www.pianeta-acqua.com
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