https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/32/Las_Cruces.jpg Las Cruces-El Paso Commuter Rail Feasibility Study Presentation of Findings Prepared by the Center for Neighborhood Technology NMSCRTD Presentation| June 27, 2017
Las Cruces-El Paso Commuter Rail Corridor
Adequate Socio-Economic Base for Commuter Rail ▪ Doña Ana county population increased 22.5% from 2000 (174,682)-2015 (213,963) ▪ Driven by retiree and student populations ▪ 2010: 210,536 residents — 75,450 jobs ▪ Projected 2020: 243,164 residents — 84,430 jobs
Adequate Socio-Economic Base for Commuter Rail ▪ El Paso county is expected to reach a population of 1 million residents by 2030 and increase its job base by 47% ▪ 2010: 832,826 residents — 306,656 jobs ▪ Projected 2040: 1,159,195 residents — 429,455 jobs
Survey of Corridor Residents ▪ Ngage New Mexico ▪ Over 1,000 responses ▪ 90% response rate for individual questions ▪ 87% of respondents said they would use the proposed rail service ▪ 61% would commute to work daily ▪ 35% would travel to college each day ▪ 80% would travel from terminal to terminal
Housing and Transportation Costs ▪ Residents of Doña Ana and El Paso counties on average pay more than 60% of their income towards housing and transportation costs ▪ Residents living along the proposed line pay upwards of $12,000 a year for transportation costs ▪ 90% of El Paso commuters and 71% of Las Cruces commuters live within ½ mile of transit
Specific Markets ▪ Vibrant University Population ▪ 33,000 students combined at Doña Ana community college and New Mexico State University ▪ 53,000 students combined at University of Texas El Paso and El Paso Community College ▪ The Las Cruces, NM-El Paso, TX-Ciudad Juarez, Mexico region is home to over 2.5 million people ▪ Largest metro area on the U.S.- Mexico Border ▪ Large elderly population ▪ High demand for the service http://pa-hrsuite-production.s3.amazonaws.com/1036/docs/186036.jpg
BNSF El Paso Subdivision Rail Line ▪ The line runs 288 miles between El Paso, TX and Belen, NM ▪ 2014 data shows this line was lightly used ▪ Carried only 4 to 8 freight trains daily ▪ Annual freight volume was less than 10 million tons, the lightest freight volume category considered in federal rail line classifications ▪ Flat trend in usage ▪ Very little track and signaling infrastructure
Existing Public Transportation Summary ▪ The cities of El Paso and Las Cruces provide local transit service within the city limits. Service 2015-16 Annual Ridership direction Ridership NM Park & Ride Gold 60,350 Flat Route SCRTD 13,000 Doubling Sun Metro 14,387,600 Flat RoadRunner 598,200 Flat
SCRTD Public Transportation Map
Proposed Commuter Line Station Areas Population Growth Population 2000 Census 2014 ACS Change El Paso 563,662 669,771 18.8% Sunland Park 13,309 14,794 11.2% Canutillo 5,129 6,091 18.8% Anthony 7,904 9,462 19.7% Vado 3,003 2,781 -7.4% Berino No data 1,674 - Mesilla Park 2,180 2,364 8.4% Las Cruces 74,267 100,360 35.1% Total 669,454 807,297 20.6%
Union Station, El Paso ▪ Close to, but not at, the Central Business District Transit Center
Mesilla Park and Central Station, Las Cruces ▪ Close to, but not at, the Central Business District Transit Center
Projected Ridership Option 1B - Option 2B - Option 3B - Option 1A - Not a Option 2A - Not a Option 3A - Not a Station Transit Center, Transit Center, Transit Center, Transit Center, 2014 Transit Center, 2030 Transit Center, 2040 2014 2030 2040 El Paso Union Depot 1871 3115 2313 3851 2628 4376 2755 2755 2962 2962 3052 3052 Intermediate Stations Las Cruces 938 1562 1045 1741 1096 1825 Contingency (-20%) (1113) (1487) (1264) (1711) (1355) (1851) Total 4452 5947 5056 6843 5422 7403
Service Plan Northbound El Paso Union Depot Sunland Montoya Canutillo Anthony Berino/Vado Mesilla Park Las Cruces 6:15:00 6:25:36 6:35:24 6:43:06 6:54:06 7:07:42 7:25:30 7:27:54 7:00:00 7:10:36 7:29:06 7:52:54 8:30:00 8:40:36 8:50:24 8:58:06 9:09:06 9:22:42 9:40:30 9:42:54 9:45:00 9:55:36 10:14:06 10:37:54 11:15:00 11:25:36 11:35:24 11:43:06 11:54:06 12:07:42 12:25:30 12:27:54 13:15:00 13:25:36 13:35:24 13:43:06 13:54:06 14:07:42 14:25:30 14:27:54 15:15:00 15:25:36 15:44:06 16:07:54 17:15:00 17:25:36 17:35:24 17:43:06 17:54:06 18:07:42 18:25:30 18:27:54 18:00:00 18:10:36 18:29:06 18:52:54 19:00:00 19:10:36 19:20:24 19:28:06 19:39:06 19:52:42 20:10:30 20:12:54 Southbound El Paso Union Las Cruces Mesilla Park Berino/Vado Anthony Canutillo Montoya Sunland Depot 6:30:00 6:37:24 6:55:12 7:08:48 7:19:48 7:27:30 7:37:18 7:42:54 7:00:00 7:28:48 7:47:18 7:52:54 8:00:00 8:07:24 8:25:12 8:38:48 8:49:48 8:57:30 9:07:18 9:12:54 9:00:00 9:28:48 9:47:18 9:52:54 10:30:00 10:37:24 10:55:12 11:08:48 11:19:48 11:27:30 11:37:18 11:42:54 12:30:00 12:58:48 13:17:18 13:22:54 14:30:00 14:37:24 14:55:12 15:08:48 15:19:48 15:27:30 15:37:18 15:42:54 16:15:00 16:22:24 16:40:12 16:53:48 17:04:48 17:12:30 17:22:18 17:27:54 17:30:00 17:58:48 18:17:18 18:22:54 19:00:00 19:07:24 19:25:12 19:38:48 19:49:48 19:57:30 20:07:18 20:12:54
Line Equipment Summary Chart Estimated # of Total # of Estimated Cost, Estimated Cost, Estimated Cost, New Estimated Cost, Used Number locomotives Passenger Cars New Equipment Used Equipment Equipment total (unit cost Equipment total (unit Passengers per (3 per train per unit (train set) per unit (train set) multiplied by # train sets) cost multiplied by # trip during set) train sets) Peak Hours 361-481 4 12 $14.2 M (min) - $3.5M (min) $56.8M (min)-$76.8M $14.0 M (min) – $19.2 M (max) $4.7M (max) (max) $18.8 M (max) Used vehicles incur much lower up-front purchasing costs, but continued operation comes with increased risk and larger maintenance costs
Estimates Heavily Influenced by BNSF Position Item 2009 Study (Based on Rail NorthStar, Minnesota El Paso – Las Cruces Runner) Right of Way Low $ 75,000,000 $ 110,900,000 $ 75,000,000 High $ 250,000,000 $ 110,900,000 $ 250,000,000 Trackwork, Signals Cost per Mile Low $ 1,000,000 $ 2,017,500 $ 1,000,000 High $ 10,000,000 $ 2,017,500 $ 4,000,000 # Miles Low 43 40 43 High 43 40 43 Subtotal Low $ 43,000,000 $ 80,700,000 $ 43,000,000 High $ 430,000,000 $ 80,700,000 $ 172,000,000 Maintenance Facility Low $ 6,000,000 $ 1,000,000 High $ 6,000,000 $ 6,600,000 Other Low $ 54,200,000 $1,000,000 High $ 54,200,000 $2,000,000 Subtotal Based on BNSF Positions Low $ 124,000,000 $ 245,800,000 $ 120,000,000 High $ 686,000,000 $ 245,800,000 $ 430,600,000
Estimates Based on Analysis of Comparables Item 2009 Study (Based on Rail Runner) NorthStar, Minnesota El Paso – Las Cruces Locomotives Subtotal Low $11,000,000 $30,300,000 $ 8,000,000 (used) High $11,000,000 $30,300,000 $ 30,400,000 (new) Passenger Rail Cars Subtotal Low $25,000,000 $37,400,000 $5,580,000 (used) High $25,000,000 $37,400,000 $26,400,000 (new) Stations Subtotal Low $16,000,000 $27,800,000 $8,000,000 High $16,000,000 $27,800,000 $16,000,000 Subtotal Based on Analysis of Comparables Low $52,000,000 $95,500,000 $22,580,000 High $52,000,000 $95,500,000 $74,800,000
Estimates Based on Analysis of Comparables 2009 Study (Based on Rail Subtotal, Estimates Based on Runner) NorthStar, Minnesota El Paso – Las Cruces Analysis of Comparables Low $52,000,000 $95,500,000 $ 22,580,000 High $52,000,000 $95,500,000 $ 74,800,000 Subtotal, Estimates Heavily Influenced by BNSF Positions Low $124,000,000 $245,800,000 $ 120,000,000 High $686,000,000 $245,800,000 $ 430,600,000 Total Capital Cost Estimate Low $176,000,000 $341,300,000 $ 142,580,000 High $738,000,000 $341,300,000 $ 505,400,000
Operating Cost Estimate from Ridership y = 5.8867x + 1E+07 Annual Operating Expenses vs. Annual Ridership R² = 0.5992 45000000 40000000 Annual Operating Expense 35000000 30000000 25000000 20000000 15000000 10000000 5000000 0 0 1000000 2000000 3000000 4000000 5000000 Annual Ridership Las Cruces-El Paso Av Daily Annual Annual O & M Cost O & M Cost/Ride Ridership Ridership El Paso - Las Cruces Low 4452 1,157,520 $16,813,972.98 $14.53 El Paso - Las Cruces 5056 1,314,560 $17,738,420.35 $13.49 Median El Paso - Las Cruces High 7404 1,925,040 $21,332,132.97 $11.08
Operating Cost Estimate from Annual Vehicle Revenue Miles y = 5.736x + 1E+07 Annual Operating Expenses vs. Annual Vehicle Revenue Miles R² = 0.7793 45000000 40000000 Annual Operating Expenses 35000000 30000000 25000000 20000000 15000000 10000000 5000000 0 0 1000000 2000000 3000000 4000000 5000000 6000000 Annual Vehicle Revenue Miles Las Cruces-El Paso Daily Vehicle Annual Vehicle Annual O & M O & M Cost/ Revenue miles Revenue miles Cost Vehicle Revenue Mile Option 1 (16 trips) 1755 456,300 $12,617,336.80 $27.65 Option 2 (18 trips) 1980 514,800 $12,952,892.80 $25.16 Option 3 (20 trips) 2205 573,300 $13,288,448.80 $23.18
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