SLIDE 1
Fiscal Update 2018-19
Budget Update Variance Revenue 7,673.4 7,803.6 130.2 Expenses 8,356.3 8,350.6 (5.7) Deficit ($M) (682.9) (547.0) 135.9
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Fall Fiscal and Economic Update November 6, 2018 Fiscal Update - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Fall Fiscal and Economic Update November 6, 2018 Fiscal Update - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Fall Fiscal and Economic Update November 6, 2018 Fiscal Update 2018-19 Budget Update Variance Revenue 7,673.4 7,803.6 130.2 Expenses 8,356.3 8,350.6 (5.7) Deficit ($M) (682.9) (547.0) 135.9 2 $ US Data to November 1 $ US Prices
SLIDE 2
SLIDE 3
Average Oil Price 2018-19
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Fiscal Year 2018-19
45.00 50.00 55.00 60.00 65.00 70.00 75.00 80.00 85.00 90.00 03-Apr-18 10-Apr-18 17-Apr-18 24-Apr-18 01-May-18 08-May-18 15-May-18 22-May-18 29-May-18 05-Jun-18 12-Jun-18 19-Jun-18 26-Jun-18 03-Jul-18 10-Jul-18 17-Jul-18 24-Jul-18 31-Jul-18 07-Aug-18 14-Aug-18 21-Aug-18 28-Aug-18 04-Sep-18 11-Sep-18 18-Sep-18 25-Sep-18 02-Oct-18 09-Oct-18 16-Oct-18 23-Oct-18 30-Oct-18 06-Nov-18 13-Nov-18 20-Nov-18 27-Nov-18 04-Dec-18 11-Dec-18 18-Dec-18 25-Dec-18 01-Jan-19 08-Jan-19 15-Jan-19 22-Jan-19 29-Jan-19 05-Feb-19 12-Feb-19 19-Feb-19 26-Feb-19 05-Mar-19 12-Mar-19 19-Mar-19 26-Mar-19
$ US Budget 2018 ($US 63.00) Brent Daily ($US 71.25) Brent YTD Avg ($US 75.75)
$ US Prices Data to November 1
Fall Update price: $US 74.00 Average price of $US 71.50 required for remainder of this fiscal year to achieve the Fall Update average price.
SLIDE 4
Oil Price and Exchange Rate
4
Budget 2018 Fall Update 2018
Average Oil Price 2018-19 Exchange Rate (USD/CAD)
US $63.00
CDN $79.75
0.79 US $74.00
CDN $95.85
0.77
October 2018 to March 2019
- Oil Price ($US). Every +$1.00 change impacts revenue +$19.9 million
- Oil Price ($US). Every -$1.00 change impacts revenue -$10.4 million
- Exchange Rate (USD/CAD). Every -1 cent change impacts revenue +$19.5 million
- Exchange Rate (USD/CAD). Every +1 cent change impacts revenue -$9.8 million
SLIDE 5
Other Key 2018-19 Financial Indicators
5
Borrowing Requirement
- $200 million decrease - Budget 2018 $1.45 billion revised to $1.25 billion
Net Debt
- $157 million decrease – Budget 2018 $15.53 billion revised to $15.37 billion
SLIDE 6
Economic Forecast Indicators 2018
Budget vs. Update (Percent Change)
Budget Update Variance Real Gross Domestic Product
- 0.8
- 2.8
- 2.0
Compensation of Employees
- 1.1
- 0.9
+0.2 Household Income 0.7 0.9 +0.2 Retail Sales 0.7
- 0.9
- 1.6
Consumer Price Index 2.0 2.1 +0.1 Housing Starts
- 10.1
0.1 +10.2 Capital Investment
- 9.3
- 8.2
+1.1 Population
- 0.6
- 0.6
0.0 Employment
- 1.0
0.0 +1.0 Unemployment Rate (%) 14.8 14.5
- 0.3
Participation Rate (%) 57.8 59.0 +1.2
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SLIDE 7
- 4.0
- 3.0
- 2.0
- 1.0
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
Source: Statistics Canada CANSIM Table 282-0001; NL Department of Finance
7 % Change from same month in previous year
Monthly Change to Employment
SLIDE 8
$7.5 $8.2 $8.9 $9.0 $9.1 $9.4 $9.6 $0.0 $2.0 $4.0 $6.0 $8.0 $10.0 $12.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
$ billion
Source: Statistics Canada; NL Department of Finance
NL Retail Sales
SLIDE 9
$19.4 $22.4 $24.4 $25.9 $26.7 $27.3 $28.5 $0.0 $5.0 $10.0 $15.0 $20.0 $25.0 $30.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
$ billion
Source: Statistics Canada; NL Department of Finance
NL Household Income
SLIDE 10
Source: Statistics Canada; NL Department of Finance
$0.0 $2.0 $4.0 $6.0 $8.0 $10.0 $12.0 $14.0 $16.0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
West White Rose Voisey’s Bay Underground Mine Bay du Nord Long Harbour Hebron
$Billions Total Capital Investment Including Major Projects
Muskrat Falls
NL Major Project Timelines
SLIDE 11
Fall Update 2018
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