2014-15 Third Quarter Fiscal Update and Economic Statement February - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Nov 28, 2023 141 likes •278 views

2014-15 Third Quarter Fiscal Update and Economic Statement February 24, 2015 Fiscal plan surplus Smaller surplus Consolidated Financial Statements surplus Fiscal Plan surplus (incl. SUCH sector) (change in net assets) Budget 2014 Q3

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2014-15 Third Quarter Fiscal Update and Economic Statement

February 24, 2015

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Fiscal plan surplus

Smaller surplus

Budget 2014 Estimate Q3 Forecast $1.1B surplus $465M surplus

Fiscal Plan surplus (change in net assets)

Actual 2013/14 Q3 Forecast ($302M) deficit $361M surplus

Consolidated Financial Statements surplus (incl. SUCH sector)

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Decline in oil prices

Oil dropped from $108/barrel in June to

under $50/barrel in January

50%+ reduction
WTI oil price forecast revised to $79 US,

down from $95 US at budget

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Energy volatility

Average: $79/bbl 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 $US/bbl WTI (US$/bbl) Budget 2014 Forecast Second Quarter Forecast Third Quarter Forecast 2014-15 Fiscal Year

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Revenue

Revenue forecast $397M higher than

Budget 2014 estimate

Resource revenue forecast down $503M

Budget 2014 Estimate Q3 Forecast $44.4B $44.8B

Revenue (full year forecast)

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Operational spending

Operational expense is $802 million higher

than forecast for:

forest-fires
agriculture and flood assistance
public sector compensation settlements

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Capital Plan

Revised Capital Plan forecast at $6.5B
Direct borrowing for infrastructure is $3B
reduced $1.9B from budget

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Economic forecast

3.8 3 1.4 2.5 3.6 2.9 2.6 2.2 0.6 2 1 1 1 2 3 4 % Change 2013 2014 Estimate 2015 Forecast

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$7 billion challenge

$7 billion projected revenue

shortfall in 2015

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Public sector wages

31% 18% 24% 15% 12% Alberta Health Services Physicians Education Post-secondary Education Alberta Public Service Public Sector Compensation, 2013-14: $22.5 billion

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Actions to date

Closing international offices
Hiring restraint
Restricted spending on goods, services

and travel

All departments to look for cost savings
5% wage rollback for all MLAs

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We are listening

Met 1,500 Albertans in 20 communities
36,000+ responses to online survey
Input will guide government decisions

going forward budget.alberta.ca

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