FAIRMODE pilot MAŁOPOLSKA / POLAND 08/10/2019 Pawel Durka (1), Joanna Struzewska (1,2), Jacek W. Kaminski (1,3), Grzegorz Jeleniewicz (1), Marcin Kawka (1), Aleksander Norowski (1) Piotr Łyczko (4) IEP-NRI (1), WUT (2), IG-PAS (3) Marshall Office of Malopolska Voivodship (4)
Starting point • Legislation changes related to AQ modelling • Centralised approach for the assessment and national AQP – already in place • AQP – in preparation (not centralized) • Pilot exercise for Malopolska lessons learned for the country scale analysis • New high resolution BU emission inventory – for 2018 assessment • DeltaTool and Emission Delta applied • New AQP – call in preparation
Pilot Exercise • To apply SHERPA as a: • screening tool for Ministry of Environment • Verification of AQP prepared by consulting companies for voivodships • SHERPA TD – tested; SHERPA BU – in preparation • To apply Riat+ for cost effectiveness analysis
SHERPA TD • Contribution in Malopolska vs. Stations in Krakow • Scenario Assessment for assumptions from existing AQP in Malopolska • Governance area – too low NUTs resolution • „ Firts guess Riat +” checked
Source Allocation PM25 Per station Porównanie całego obszaru Małopolski z pojedynczymi stacjami pomiarowymi. Contribution in Krak.Ku Krak.Alk Krak.Diet Malopolska vs. Stations in Krakow Percentyl 100 Krak.NH Krak.OsPi Krak.ZloR
PM2.5 Concentration – nuts3 PM2.5 Concentration - grid Scenario Assessment PM25 Delta Concentration Reduction in AQP: delta delta % MS2 MS7 PPM 50 0 Nox 0 4 % delta delta% delta% Conc value value
NO2 Concentration – nuts3 NO2 Concentration – grid Scenario Assessment NO2 Delta Concentration delta delta % delta delta% delta% Conc value value
Scenario Assessment Reduction by NOx sector for NOx Emissions Grid Macrosector 1-10 delta Mg value delta %
SHERPA BU - status • Simulations cover Poland with margins with a resolution of 2,5km • Over Poland Central Emission Database (BU inventory for PL valid for 2017) is used, rest of the domain – EMEP (0.1deg valid for 2016) • 9 training simulations performed:
SHERPA BU - status • Results for the base case evaluated with DetlaTool for all station - Poland and Malopolska region • Ongoing – check if the reduction of concentration is linear as a funtion of emission reduction ? • SHERPA BU downloaded and files prepared in the requested format • How to proceed ?
SHERPA BU – Delta Tool evaluation PM10 Poland Malopolska
SHERPA BU – Delta Tool evaluation O3 Poland Malopolska
SHERPA BU – △ Emissions / △ Concentrations reduction linearity check – first results
Future plans • To set up SHERPA BU • To prepare validation runs • To compare the results from SHERPA TD and BU • To test Riat+ with SHERPA TD • To test SR tools
Recommend
More recommend
