Evaluating Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Southern Africa: - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Climate Change and Development Policy UNU-WIDER Helsinki 28 September 2012

Kenneth Strzepek, Chas Fant, Yohannes Gebretsadik, Adam Schlosser, Paul Chinowsky, Alyssa McCluskey,Amy Swiekert, Niko Strzepek

Evaluating Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Southern Africa: Water Resources and Hydropower

A Classical Impact Assessment of Zambezi

AGGREGATION BASELINE AVERAGE ANNUAL HYDROPOWER GENERATION (GW- H) BASIN-WIDE PERCENT CHANGE AGGREGATION-SPECIFIC PERCENT CHANGE

EARLY CENTURY MID CENTURY EARLY CENTURY MID CENTURY DRY WET DRY WET DRY WET DRY WET

Upper Zambezi 8,565

• 5%
• 2%
• 15%
• 2%
• 10%

1%

• 27%

1% Kafue River 9,528

• 22%
• 3%
• 22%
• 4%
• 27%
• 8%
• 41%
• 3%

Zambezi at Cahora Bassa 7,495 0% 0%

• 1%

0%

• 1%

0%

• 1%

0% Shire River 4,398

• 11%

7%

• 16%

10%

• 9%

7%

• 18%

10% Lower Zambezi 4,095 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Zambezi River 34,082

• 9%
• 1%
• 12%

0%

• 9%
• 1%
• 12%

0%

ANNUAL AVERAGE HYDROPOWER GENERA TION PROJECTIONS

Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities in the Zambezi River Basin

Existing Vulnerability Studies

• Examine climate impacts via isolated transmission mechanisms

– But impacts interact with each other (e.g., agriculture and rural roads)

• Consider only a few un-weighted climate projections

– Incomplete distribution of future climates – Uncertainty prevents standard investment risk analysis – Precautionary principle implies trade-offs with development spending

• Shortcomings most severe for large-scale long-term investments

– e.g., Hydropower, road infrastructure, agricultural research

• Makes prioritizing adaptation investments extremely difficult

– As a result, Planning Ministries are often reluctant to fully mainstream adaptation within national development strategies

Integrated Analytical Framework

Agriculture

(food, exports)

Local economy

(growth, jobs, welfare, inequality)

Global change

(temperature, rainfall, fossil fuel prices)

Rivers

(runoff, streamflow)

Flooding

(frequency, severity)

Sea level rise

(land loss, salination)

Energy

(hydropower)

Infrastructure

(roads, ports, houses)

Difficulty with Anticipating Climate Change

• There is uncertainty about some aspects
• f regional climate change

– Direction – Magnitude – Timing – Path

Changes in Mean Annual West Zambezi Runoff

Changes in Monthly Flooding East Zambezi

Changes in Monthly Flooding West Zambezi

Flooding Impact on Road Infrastructure

STRESSOR-RESPONSE APPROACH BASE ON FREQUENCY OF WEATHER/FLOOD EVENT

• v. DESIGN STANDARD OF

INFRASTRUCTURE Chinowsky

The Uncertain Future of Runoff in Zambezi River

Zambia Zimbabwe

Impacts on Irrigation Demand in Mozambique

• percent change averaged, 2046-2050 relative to 1980 - 2000

Zambezi River Development Plan

Impacts on Hydropower in 2050

Basin-wide Impacts on Hydropower in 2050

The Case for Regional Power Pools and Basin Cooperatipn

Flexible Design

Conclusion

• No single answer for water related infrastructure
• Flexible Design
• Changes in Variability more important than MEANS
• Makes sense to consider adaptations in risks context
• NEED TO TAKE ECONOMY-WIDE MULTISECTOR APPROACH

– Identify development priorities