[PPT] - European ecosystems in alternative future worlds Tim Carter PowerPoint Presentation

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4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

European ecosystems in alternative future worlds

Tim Carter

Finnish Environment Institute, SYKE

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4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

Aim of this presentation

To illustrate four common steps in the development of scenarios, namely:

1. Devise the focal questions of the scenarios 2. Construct scenario storylines 3. Quantify scenario elements 4. Regionalise scenarios (optional)

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ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

1. Focal questions:

Contrasting objectives; contrasting scenarios

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4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

Regional Prescriptive EU policy-makers Spatial planning ESPON/FARO Exploratory Research Ecosystems ATEAM/ALARM Global Precautionary Policy Water WWV Abstract Business Environment Shell/WBCSD Multi-scale Awareness raising/policy Ecosystem services MA Pervasive Research/policy Climate change SRES Illustrative Policy Sustainable development GEO-3/GEO-4 Path-setting Research Academic GSG Notable feature Target audience Orientation Scenarios

Examples of global and regional scenarios

Illustration only, not to be cited

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4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Scenarios

Focus: plausible future changes in ecosystems, in the

supply of and demand for ecosystem services, and in the consequent changes in human well-being

Key concerns: identified through a survey of user needs and

interviews with decision-makers and leaders. Included:

globalization
leadership
poverty and inequality
technology
local flexibility
surprises

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4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: conceptual framework

Source: MEA, 2003

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ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

2. Storylines:

Narrative descriptions of future worlds

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4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

Adapting Mosaic Global Orchestration Order from Strength TechnoGarden

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) storylines

Nelson et al., 2005

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4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

The Global Orchestration scenario depicts a worldwide connected society in which global markets are well developed. Supra-national institutions are well placed to deal with global environmental problems, such as climate change and fisheries. However, their reactive approach to ecosystem management makes them vulnerable to surprises arising from delayed action or unexpected regional changes.

Global Orchestration

Nelson et al., 2005

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4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

The Order from Strength scenario represents a regionalized and fragmented world concerned with security and protection, emphasizing primarily regional markets, and paying little attention to the common goods, and with an individualistic attitude toward ecosystem management.

Order from Strength

Nelson et al., 2005

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4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

The Adapting Mosaic scenario depicts a fragmented world resulting from discredited global institutions. It sees the rise of local ecosystem management strategies and the strengthening

f local institutions. Investments in human and social capital are

geared toward improving knowledge about ecosystem functioning and management, resulting in a better understanding of the importance of resilience, fragility, and local flexibility of ecosystems.

Adapting Mosaic

Nelson et al., 2005

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4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

The TechnoGarden scenario depicts a globally connected world relying strongly on technology and on highly managed and

ften-engineered ecosystems to deliver needed goods and
services. Overall, eco-efficiency improves, but it is shadowed by

the risks inherent in large-scale humanmade solutions.

TechnoGarden

Nelson et al., 2005

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ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

Some other storylines

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4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

Global Scenarios Group (GSG): Three archetypal scenarios of the future

Conventional Worlds: current trends play out without major

discontinuity and surprise in the evolution of institutions, environmental systems and human values.

Barbarization: fundamental social change occurs, but is

unwelcome, bringing great human misery and collapse of civilized norms.

Great Transitions: fundamental social transformation but to

a new and arguably higher stage of human civilization.

Gallopin et al., 1997

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4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

Scenarios structure with illustrative patterns of change

Barbarization Great Transitions

Eco- communalism Policy Reform Reference Breakdown Fortress world New sustainability paradigm

Conventional Worlds

Gallopin et al., 1997

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4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

Source: UNEP, 2007

UNEP’s Global Environmental Outlook Four storylines (GEO-3 and GEO-4):

Markets First
Policy First
Security First
Sustainability First

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4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

The dominant characteristic of this scenario is the assumption that actors at all levels – local, national, regional and international, and from all sectors, including government, private and civil – actually follow through on the pledges made to date to address environmental and social concerns. This implies behaviour that honours not only the letter, but also the spirit of these promises.

Sustainability First GEO-4

Source: UNEP, 2007

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IPCC* Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES): Scenario framework and change drivers

A2 storyline World: differentiated Economy: regionally oriented; lowest per capita growth Population: continuously increasing Governance: Self-reliance with preservation of local identities Technology: slowest and most fragmented development A1 storyline: World: market-oriented Economy: fastest per capita growth Population: 2050 peak, then decline Governance: strong regional interactions; income convergence Technology: three scenario groups: A1FI: fossil intensive A1T:non-fossil energy sources A1B: balanced across all sources B1 storyline World: convergent Economy: service and information based; lower growth than A1 Population: same as A1 Governance: global solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability Technology: clean and resource- efficient B2 storyline World: local solutions Economy: intermediate growth Population: continuously increasing at lower rate than A2 Governance: local and regional solutions to environmental protection and social equity Technology: More rapid than A2; less rapid, more diverse than A1/B1

Regional emphasis Economic emphasis Global Integration Environmental emphasis Based on Nakicenovic et al., 2000 *Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

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4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

Low Trust Globalisation A legalistic “prove it to me” world. Open Doors A pragmatic “know me” world. Flags A dogmatic “follow me” world.

Shell Global Scenarios to 2025

Shell International Limited, 2005

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ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

Some common elements of storylines: mixing and matching

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ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

Comparison of selected global scenarios

Raskin et al., 2005

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ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

Comparison of selected global scenarios

Modified and updated from Raskin et al., 2005

MA /4 Global Orchestration TechnoGarden Order from Strength Adapting Mosaic GEO-4 Global Environmental Outlook, MA Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

Illustration only, not to be cited

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ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

3. Quantified scenario elements

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4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

How can we quantify scenarios? Define exogenously (e.g. from published

projections – often indirect drivers)

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4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

Global Population Projections, 2005–2100

Nelson et al., 2005

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4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

How can we quantify scenarios? Define exogenously (e.g. from published

projections – often indirect drivers)

Extrapolate past trends

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4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

Alcamo et al., 2005

Global trends of technological efficiencies in MA scenarios

current trends extrapolation

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4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

How can we quantify scenarios? Define exogenously (e.g. from published

projections – often indirect drivers)

Extrapolate past trends Expert elicitation

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4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

Results of the 1st ALTER-Net scenarios questionnaire on Europe in the 2050s

The ALTER-Net Summer School Participants, 2006

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4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

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4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

Population of Europe: 2050

5 10 15 20 25 30 < 405 405-430 430-455 455-480 480-505 505-530 530-555 555-580 580-605 > 605 Population (million) Probability

Greater than present Less than present

A1, B1 B2 A2

SRES

ALTER-Net, Peyresq, 2005

Sample size: 32

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4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

How can we quantify scenarios? Define exogenously (e.g. from published

projections – often indirect drivers)

Extrapolate past trends Expert elicitation Modelling:

Deterministic models
Optimization approaches
Stochastic models
Semi-quantitative approaches

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4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

Framework of the Integrated Assessment Model IMAGE 2.4

MNP, 2006

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4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

Developing quantitative scenarios for the MA: linkages between models

Alcamo et al., 2005

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ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

Some examples of quantification in scenarios

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4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

The SRES illustrative scenarios: primary driving forces

Family A1 A2 B1 B2 Scenario group 1990 A1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B2 Population (billion) 5.3 2020 7.6 7.5 7.6 8.2 7.6 7.6 2050 8.7 8.7 8.7 11.3 8.7 9.3 2100 7.1 7.1 7.0 15.1 7.0 10.4 World GDP (1012 1990 US$/yr) 21 2020 53 56 57 41 53 51 2050 164 181 187 82 136 110 2100 525 529 550 243 328 235 Per capita income ratio 16.1 2020 7.5 6.4 6.2 9.4 8.4 7.7 2050 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.6 3.6 4.0 2100 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.8 3.0

Nakicenovic et al., 2000

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4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

CO2 concentrations projected for the 21st century

IPCC, 2001

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4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

IPCC, 2007

Multi-model global averages and uncertainties of surface warming (w.r.t. 1980–1999) for the scenarios A2, A1B and B1.

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4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

GEO-4 Population and GDP per capita

Source: UNEP, 2007

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4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

GEO-4 Global mean temperature change

Source: UNEP, 2007

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4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

Source: UNEP, 2007

GEO-4 Mean species abundance

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ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

4. Regionalisation of scenarios

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4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

Options for regionalising Global scenario data already disaggregated

to regions

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4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

GEO-4 Europe: population and GDP/capita

Source: UNEP, 2007

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4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

GEO-4 Europe: land use change and water stress

Source: UNEP, 2007

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4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

GEO-4 Europe: carbon and sulphur emissions

Source: UNEP, 2007

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4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

GEO-4 Europe: wastewater and species decline

Source: UNEP, 2007

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4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

Options for regionalising Global scenario data already disaggregated

to regions

Regional scenarios constructed bottom-up

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4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

Regional Prescriptive EU policy-makers Spatial planning ESPON/FARO Exploratory Research Ecosystems ATEAM/ALARM Global Precautionary Policy Water WWV Abstract Business Environment Shell/WBCSD Multi-scale Awareness raising/policy Ecosystem services MA Pervasive Research/policy Climate change SRES Illustrative Policy Sustainable development GEO-3/GEO-4 Path-setting Research Academic GSG Description Target audience Orientation Scenarios

Examples of global and regional scenarios

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4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

ESPON Territorial Futures: Trend Scenario

ESPON, 2007

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4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

ESPON Territorial Futures: Competitiveness-oriented Scenario

ESPON, 2007 Attraction and polarisation in Pentagon Rural marginalisation. Industrial decline External immigration flows Severe rural population ageing Intensified impacts of natural hazards (drought, fires, and floods)

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4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

ESPON Territorial Futures: Cohesion-oriented Scenario

ESPON, 2007 Attraction and polarisation more diffuse Urban polycentricity Peripheral high-performing zones Reduced regional marginalization Moderate rural population ageing Limited impacts of natural hazards (drought, fires, and floods)

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4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

Options for regionalising Global scenario data already disaggregated

to regions

Regional scenarios constructed bottom-up Regional storylines developed by interpreting

global storylines

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4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

Interpretations of climate policy in the Netherlands according to four SRES-based world views

Source: Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 2008

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4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

Options for regionalising Global scenario data already disaggregated

to regions

Regional scenarios constructed bottom-up Regional storylines developed by interpreting

global storylines

Regional scenarios downscaled from global

scenarios

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4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

Regional Prescriptive EU policy-makers Spatial planning ESPON/FARO Exploratory Research Ecosystems ATEAM/ALARM Global Precautionary Policy Water WWV Abstract Business Environment Shell/WBCSD Multi-scale Awareness raising/policy Ecosystem services MA Pervasive Research/policy Climate change SRES Illustrative Policy Sustainable development GEO-3/GEO-4 Path-setting Research Academic GSG Description Target audience Orientation Scenarios

Examples of global and regional scenarios

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4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

GRAS & GRAS-CUT BAMBU SEDG

IPCC (2001)

Scenarios Forcing CO2 Climate models (2001-2100) SRES NCAR-PCM AOGCM CSIRO2 AOGCM HadCM3 AOGCM Rossby Centre RCM GRAS A1FI X X* GRAS-CUT A1FI X X* BAMBU A2 X X X X X SEDG B1 X X*

Climate and CO2 scenarios adopted in ALARM

GRAS

GRowth Applied Strategy

BAMBU

Business As Might Be Usual

SEDG

Sustainable European Development Goal

Narrative storylines GRAS-CUT

Cooling Under Thermohaline collapse

Socio-economic shocks Climate shock

IPCC (2001)

HadCM3 CSIRO2 PCM

BAMBU

JAN OCT JUL APR

Change in temperature by 2071-2100 (Mitchell, 2002)

HadCM3 CSIRO2 PCM

Change in precipitation by 2071-2100 (Mitchell, 2002)

BAMBU

JAN OCT JUL APR

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4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

ALARM scenarios, grid cell at Banchory, UK

January mean temperature (°C)

GRAS-CUT shock scenario (THC shutdown)

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4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

Change in cropland area (for food production) by 2080 compared to baseline (%) for the 4 SRES storylines and HADCM3

After: Schröter et al. (2005). Ecosystem service supply and vulnerability to global change in

Europe. Science, 310 (5752),

1333-1337

Change in cropland area (for food production) by 2080 compared to baseline (%) for the 4 SRES storylines and HADCM3

After: Schröter et al. (2005). Ecosystem service supply and vulnerability to global change in

Europe. Science, 310 (5752),

1333-1337

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ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

More mixing and matching ....

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ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France

Comparison of selected global scenarios

Modified and updated from Raskin et al., 2005

MA ATEAM ALARM ESPON /4 Global Orchestration TechnoGarden Order from Strength Adapting Mosaic A1 B1 A2 B2 GRAS SEDG BAMBU Competitiveness? Coherence? GEO-4 Global Environmental Outlook, MA Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Regional scenarios for Europe

Illustration only, not to be cited

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4.9.2008

ALTER-Net Summer School 2008 European Ecosystems: Managing Biodiversity September 2-14 2008, Peyresq, France