[PPT] - #EU37 Completing Europe Gunther Fehlinger Secretary General CEE BC PowerPoint Presentation

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#EU37 Completing Europe

Gunther Fehlinger Secretary General CEE BC

http://cee-bc.org/en/

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3rd Enlargement? Post Cold War…now 3rd

95: Neutrals first and fast Enlargement 04 to 13 - 13 first in EU28 9 in line who want, can & shall #EU37 Keep one slot for UK forever. Develop EU Customs Union EAP13 For Turkey, EAP, CA, possible UfM

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#NATO 30 now! #NMK! #NATO34 6 Neutrals 6 SEE, EAP

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19 Members 2 Adopters #Euro34 by 2024 6 new in Eurozone 7 new adopters risk little, GDP of Cz Rep symbol impact massive #GlobalEurope start in Eastern Europe

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#MembershipMinus #EU37

#NATOfirst
#EuroAdopted
#CVM – in different variation depending on capacity of Rule of Law
#MembershipMinus fast, in but assisted, supervised
#3NATOAlliesinEU2022 #EU30 in this Mandate
New EU Treaty 2025 opening for #EU37 Strong EU wide Rule of Law
#EuropeanFBI #strongEPPO #EuropeanSupremeCourt #strongEU
6 more challenging countries in EU #FreeUkraine #FreeMoldova

#FreeGeorgia #Serbia #BiH #RKS but all first #NATO #Euro #CVM

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And Turkey, EAP, Central Asia, ME, UMed?

EAP works, can be enlarged plus Central Asia 6 & Turkey
#EAP13
All EAP 13 EU Customs Union by 2030 – EU Turkish Custums Union 95
Europeg
Compete and outperform #EAEU #EndEAEU #EUorEAEU
Possible similar approach to Union for Mediterranean in new Southern

Partnership #Europeg, Customs Union, OSCE, NATO Global Partnership

Build a ring of partners east and south around EU in softer but similar

integration ring east of EU & south Med & ME to contain Russia until 2030

Russia is aggressive but fragile Federation – prepare #FreeFederalRussia …

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#West –#OpenWest2030 –order post 2014

Post War #West – how to organize Free World, #West post War?
Post #WW2 : 44 to 49 UNO , GATT, IMF, WorldBank, COE
Post start Cold War 47 to 57: NATO, BRD, ECSC, EEC
Post Cold War 89 to 14: WTO, Euro, Maastricht, CEFTA, EU28
Post Balkan Wars: 2000 -2014 Stability Pact; RCC, EU28, BerlinBalkans
Post 2014 new Cold War with Russia in Ukraine, Syria, Libya, Georgia
What is our #West institutional response? Post Brexit – future EU?
#OpenWest2030 – enlarge NATO, EU, Euro, OECD, WTO, OSCE, RCC
Enlarge, open, adapt our well working #West political order post 2020

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#OpenWest2030

NATO42 & NATO Global Partnership
EU37 & Euro34 & Schengen EU37
EU FTAs #TTIP, Mercosur, AU, UK, ASEAN, India
WTO 11 Belarus, Serbia, RKS, BIH, Az, Uzbekistan
OECD EU37, AU, ASEAN, India, All ex OPEC
OSCE #OSCEME Middle East Union for Med
UN Kosovo, Palestine
CoE Kosovo, Central Asia
RCC CEFTA RESPA CEF Energy Transpport EAP CA
EAP & Customs Union EAP CA EAP13
Compete Outperform BRICS, EAEU, OPEC
There is no need for BRICS, EAEU, OPEC – end by 2025

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Country by Country – which first?

Montenegro

2022 fully ready, light CVM

North Macedonia

2022 EuroAdoption ready, medium CVM

Albania

2022 EuroAdoption mostly ready, strong CVM

Bosnia & Hercegovina

2028 NATO, EuroAdoption, strong CVM

Republic of Kosovo

2028 NATO, strong CVM

Serbia

2028 NATO, EuroAdoption, strong CVM

FreeUkraine

2028 NATO, EuroAdoption, strong CVM

FreeGeorgia

2028 NATO, EuroAdoption, CVM

FreeMoldova

2028 NATO, EuroAdoption, strong CVM

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Montenegro – Member of EU in 2022

Montenegro is in NATO 2017
Montenegro has Euro, major efforts to comply with ECB & EC regulation
Montenegro is almost done with EU accession regulatory & negotiations
Montenegro is close to Bulgaria in GDP Capita net $ Bulgaria 9134 to MNE 8763
Montenegro membership has small budgetary impact on EU
Pro #West #CSFP with EU
Under multiple attack SRB
Pro RKS & Ukraine!
#EU30 good for #EU
Medium #CVM required

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North Macedonia – Member of EU in 2022?

Prespa Peace – a history success – North Macedonia –key achievement of #West
North Macedonia in NATO 2020 -Spain just ratified. Celebrate 4th April NATO Day
North Macedonia Currency MKD is pegged to Euro, good, adoption of Euro 2021
North Macedonia is global No 17 in Doing Business
North Macedonia Candidate since 2005! ..ready…
Compare with Bulgaria 2002 same level GDP Cap net:
Pro RKS Kosovo & Ukraine! NMK part of #West!
Pro #West #CSFP with EU – April elections – risk?
#EU30 good for #EU
Medium #CVM required

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Albania– Member of EU in 2022? Yes!

NATO Member since 2009 – together with Croatia – 11 years in NATO –firm Ally
Complicated communist heritage – confrontational politics today & tomorrow & to stay
Albanian LEK needs to peg to Euro now, adoption of Euro 2021
Pro #West #CSFP with EU
Pro RKS Kosovo & pro Ukraine!
OSCE Chairmanship 2020
1998 GDP Cap was 813 $ GDP cap now 5.268$
Petrol, Energy, Mining, FDI potential, all global FDI in AL
#EU30 good for #EU
Strong #CVM required – stronger then Romania
Outside EU there wont be major progress for decades

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Serbia – the front runner? Maybe, maybe?

Serbia is not in WTO – without WTO no EU Membership possible
Serbia does not want to join NATO – is openly pro Putin - observer of CSTO!
Serbia has FTA with Russia & new FTA with EAEU
Anti #West minimal compliance #CFSP with EU
Anti RKS Kosovo & Anti Ukraine! Anti BiH in NATO, Support protest in Montenegro
GDP at 7.000 good market, FDI progress! Technical reforms & highways EIB, good!
Russian military coop, Nis!, Arms purchases! EU subsidies IPA Serbia buys arms Putin
#EU37 by 2028 or later - first fundamentals, no appeasement, Trojan horse, no Orban 2.0
First NATO, than Euro, Kosovo recognition, Minsk, CFSP, coping w. YU past, #EUValues
Once ready strong #CVM required – stronger then Romania
https://europeanwesternbalkans.com/2019/11/12/serbias-new-national-security-and-defence-strategies-balancing-between-nato-and-csto/

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Republic of Kosovo in NATO 2024 & EU 2029

Kosovo is not in WTO –without WTO no EU Membership possible – this is priority
Kosovo is secured by NATO KFOR, 2020 Partnership for Peace, 2024 NATO MS

Kosovo RKS – first PFP than Dialogue with Serbia

Kosovo is fully in line #CFSP #EU #West #NATO
Kosovo has adopted Euro.
GDP Cap net 4300$ -par with reforming Georgia!
RKS has EU Potential Candidate Status IPA:
Now time for EU Candidate Status for RKS 2020
Recognize RKS, Spain, RO, Greece, Cyprus, Slovak
#CVM #Eulex #MembershipMinus

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Bosnia & Hercegovina NATO 2022 & EU 2029

BiH is not in WTO –without WTO no EU Membership possible – this is priority
BiH in NATO 2022 – #West needs to repeat success of #PrespaPeace in #BIH
Major Highway for Peace Deal funded by EIB
Bosnia Heart & hub of Balkans – Invest now
BiH has KMark pegged to Euro, time for Euro!
GDP Cap net 6000 $ - better than BG in 07
BIH has EU Potential Candidate Status
Now time for EU Candidate Status BIH 2020
#CVM #MembershipMinus

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#FreeUkraine in NATO 2024 & EU 2029

#FreeUkraine – BRD 1947 to 1957 #Westintegration
HallsteinDoctrine Unity result #ProsperityDifferential
Hryvna peg to Euro, adopt Euro - irreversible #West
Ukraine build alliance with #SEE – Balkans A5 –A8
Ukraine join CEFTA, RCC, EUCustomsUnion 2024
EU Potential Candidate Status
NATO MAP 2020 – NATO Membership 2024
GDP Cap net 3000 $ - #CompetitiveUkraine, more reforms!
Open Land, Labor market, lower tax #Flattax10
#CVM #MembershipMinus 2029
#Crimea #Donbas can join EUMS Ukraine like Saxonia later

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#FreeMoldova in NATO 2024 & EU 2029

#FreeMoldova – BRD 1947 to 1957 #Westintegration HallsteinDoctrine Unity result

#ProsperityDifferential

Leu peg to Euro, adopt Euro - irreversible #West
Moldova is in CEFTA, RCC major progress in admin capacity but excluded Berlin, IPA why?

Moldvoa EUCustomsUnion 2024 & EU Potential Candidate Status 2020

3times Moldova turned #West and we shut door in face of Moldova! Why? Time to get this right:
NATO MAP 2020
NATO Membership 2024
#CompetitiveMoldova
Open Land, lower tax #Flattax10
#CVM #MembershipMinus 2029
#Transnistria can join
EUMS Moldova like Thuringia

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#FreeGeorgia in NATO 2024 & EU 2029

#FreeGeorgia – BRD 1947 to 1957 #Westintegration
HallsteinDoctrine Unity result #ProsperityDifferential
Lari peg to Euro, adopt Euro - irreversible #West
Georgia is best reformer of Balkans EAP
Doing Business 7 & TI 44 Magic results!
Georgia build alliance with #SEE – Balkans A5 –A8
Georgia join CEFTA, RCC, EUCustomsUnion 2024
EU Potential Candidate Status 2020
Southern Caucasus Benelux Infrastructure Interconnectivity
NATO MAP 2020 – NATO Membership 2024
GDP Cap net 4700 $
lower tax #Flattax10
#CVM #MembershipMinus 2029
#SouthOssetia #Avchasia can join EUMS Georgia like Brandenburg

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New Partnership with NATO Turkey

Turkey matters for NATO, EU, FDI, Black Sea, Balkans, Syria, Middle East
New Deal: peg Lira to Euro for withdrawing EU Candidacy
Turkey join EAP & all Turkic Council & join EAP13
Deepen & enlarge EAP13 EU Turkish Customs Union
Support Turkey economic growth & Labor market growth
No illegal refugee pushing –but regular airlift on mutually agreed quota of Syrians
Visa Free Travel for Turkish citizens – conditioned on above working
Block Bosporus & NATO Airspace for Russian supplies to Syria and Libya
EU Turkey Southern Caucasus Central Asia Infrastructure Interconnectivity Agenda
Turkey turn back to #West – 2013/2020 #Russia was disaster, 200 Billion GDP yr lost!
Come back, Turkey for a new realistic successful long term partnership!

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Better wait until 2035, all will be perfect!

Will it be?
EU is moving upwards, growing, integrating, ever closer union…
Can you reform fast without credible accession perspective?
Will be the EU be more reform and enlargement ready in 2035?
Is appeasement of Russia and Serbia really working and it is fair?
Will other actors be sleeping? Russia, China, extremists?
Will Balkans & Ukraine be so perfect outside in 2035?
What is really gained by waiting, delaying?
Any courage, ambitious, values, morals left? #EuropeanValues?

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Better wait until 2035, all will be perfect!

Will it be?
EU is moving upwards, growing, integrating, ever closer union…
Can you reform fast without credible accession perspective?
Will be the EU be more reform and enlargement ready in 2035?
Is appeasement of Russia and Serbia really working and it is fair?
Will other actors be sleeping? Russia, China, extremists?
Will Balkans & Ukraine be so perfect outside in 2035?
What is really gained by waiting, delaying?
Any courage, ambitious, values, morals left? #EuropeanValues?

Now to be revised post #CoronaShock #West unite, enlarge faster, secure periphery from shock waves Protect us from the Protectionists!

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#EU37 for you…

Will it be?
Who has the right to say no

to any European country that wants to join? 67 Million Europeans left out?

So when?
Why later?
What kind of EU will it be?
#FederalEurope
#StrongEurope

@GunterFehlinger https://www.linkedin.com/in/fehlinger/