EU Market Situation for Poultry Committee for the Common - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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EU Market Situation for Poultry Committee for the Common - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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EU Market Situation for Poultry Committee for the Common Organisation of the Agricultural Markets 22 March 2018 P R O D U C T I O N Change in Poultry Meat Production in % 2017/2016 (up to December) 17% 11.8% 11.2% 12% 7.3% 6.3% 5.1%

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SLIDE 1

EU Market Situation for Poultry Committee for the Common Organisation of the Agricultural Markets 22 March 2018

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SLIDE 2

EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018

P R O D U C T I O N

11.8% 11.2% 7.3% 6.3% 5.1% 4.6% 4.5% 3.8% 3.3% 2.7% 2.4% 1.5% 1.1% 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3%

  • 0.2%
  • 0.8%
  • 1.1%
  • 2.4%
  • 2.9%
  • 3.3%
  • 4.2%
  • 4.5%

0.8%

  • 8%
  • 3%

2% 7% 12% 17% LV DK SI LT CY IE PT RO PL FI UK CZ AT ES EL HR BE SE NL DE FR BG IT SK MT HU EU

Change in Poultry Meat Production in % 2017/2016 (up to December)

Source= Eurostat

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SLIDE 3

EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018

P R O D U C T I O N

NEW PARAMETERS

100 000 200 000 300 000 400 000 500 000 600 000 700 000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Chicks hatched for fattening

(1 000 pieces)

2015 2016 2017 2018

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SLIDE 4

EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018

P R O D U C T I O N

NEW PARAMETERS

100 000 200 000 300 000 400 000 500 000 600 000 700 000 800 000 900 000 1 000 000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Production forecast of broiler

(In tonnes)

2016 2017 2018

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SLIDE 5

EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018

P R O D U C T I O N

NEW PARAMETERS

BE BG CZ DK DE EE GR ES FR HR IE IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK Parameter National Average Live weight (kg) at Slaughter 2.40 2.10 1.90 2.10 2.11 2.39 2.40 2.66 2.02 1.99 2.04 2.60 2.64 2.10 2.44 2.40 2.33 2.55 2.23 1.83 2.44 1.85 2.20 2.20 2.12 2.34 1.91 2.23 National Average Carcass yield (%) 68% 73.0% 74.0% 75.0% 70.0% 71.0% 75.0% 70.2% 67.0% 69.4% 71.7% 70.1% 77.0% 74.4% 75.1% 68% 70.1% 74.0% 66.0% 75.0% 69.9% 72.4% 70.5% 72.5% 72.5% 75.0% 69.0% National Average Mortality (%) 2.0% 4.3% 4.0% 2.5% 3.0- 3.5% (l.w) 4.0% (h.w.) 2,5%

  • 3,0%

6.0% 5.2% 4.2% 3.7% 2.9% 5.0% 3.2% 3.3% 5.0% 2.0% 4.2% 6.5% 3.5% 4.2% 4.2% 2.6% 2.5% 3.9% 3.5% 3.5% 4.8% National Average Period

  • f rearing (days)

40.0 51* 35.0 35.0 30 - 38 37 - 40 45.0 43.5 37.7 35.0 36.9 35/46 47.4 37.1 40.0 40.0 41.5 45.0 41.0 35.00 42.0 37.8 41.0 37.7 38.5 37.0 42.0

New parameters for the calculation of the estimated production of broilers

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SLIDE 6

EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018

P R O D U C T I O N Euro – US Dollar exchange rate

0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 01/99 01/00 01/01 01/02 01/03 01/04 01/05 01/06 01/07 01/08 01/09 01/10 01/11 01/12 01/13 01/14 01/15 01/16 01/17 01/18 Exchange rate: Spot, ECB reference - U.S. Dollar/Euro

16/03/2018: 1 EUR = 1.23 USD

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SLIDE 7

EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018

P R O D U C T I O N Euro – Argentine Peso and Brazilian Real exchange rate

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0 22.0 24.0 26.0 Exchange rate: ARG Peso/Euro, Spot, ECB reference and local market quotes Exchange rate: BRA Real/Euro, Spot, ECB reference

16/03/2018: 1 EUR = 25.04 ARS = 4.05 BRL

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SLIDE 8

EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018

C e r e a l P r i c e s

World cereal prices ($/t)

140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300

$ / tonne

Wheat - Black Sea Milling $ 208 Wheat - US SRW Gulf $ 216 Wheat - FR Cl. 1 Rouen $ 208 Maize - FR Bordeaux $ 195 Maize - US 3YC Gulf $ 190 Barley-FR Dlvd Rouen feed $ 207

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SLIDE 9

EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018

C e r e a l P r i c e s

US CME SRW wheat futures

120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 07/15 01/16 07/16 01/17 07/17 01/18 $/t Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 136 tonnes) Chicago (CME) SRW futures Daily volume MAY 2018 (R) SEP 2018 (R) MAY 2019 (R) 172 184 201 170 180 190 200 210 220 50 100 150 200 03/03/18 07/03/18 11/03/18 15/03/18 $/t Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 136 tonnes) Chicago (CME) SRW futures Last 14 days

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SLIDE 10

EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018

C e r e a l P r i c e s

CME maize futures

100 125 150 175 200 225 250 160 320 480 640 800 960 1 120 12/14 06/15 12/15 06/16 12/16 06/17 12/17 $/t Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 127 tonnes) Chicago (CME) Maize futures Daily volume MAY 2018 (R) SEP 2018 (R) MAY 2019 (R) 151 156 163 150 155 160 165 170 150 300 450 600 03/03/18 07/03/18 11/03/18 15/03/18 $/t Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 127 tonnes) Chicago (CME) Maize futures Last 14 days

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SLIDE 11

EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018

C e r e a l P r i c e s

CME soya futures

300 310 320 330 340 350 360 370 380 390 400 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 11/14 05/15 11/15 05/16 11/16 05/17 11/17 $/t Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 136 t) Chicago (CME) soybeans futures Daily volume MAY 2018 (R) JUL 2018 (R) AUG 2018 (R) MAY 2019 (R) 386 390 390 381 375 380 385 390 395 400 100 200 300 03/03/18 10/03/18

$/t Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 136 t)

Chicago (CME) soybeans futures Last 14 days

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SLIDE 12

EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018

C e r e a l P r i c e s

Soyameal world quotations $/ton

250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18

$/ton Brazil Paranagua US Gulf Argentina Up River Source: IGC

401.0 449.0 432.0

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SLIDE 13

EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018

P R I C E S

Prices

  • 0.6%

+ 0.8% + 3.0% EU

W E E K P R I C E S 11

last WEEK last MONTH last YEAR

BROILER

€/100 kg carcase weight

184.38

170 175 180 185 190 195 € / 100 kg

E V O L U T I O N S I N C E

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SLIDE 14

EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018

P R I C E S

E U E V O L U T I O N B R O I L E R

165 175 185 195 205 €uro/ 100kg

Evolution of the weekly EU average price for Broiler

  • Avg. 2013-17

2017 2018 Latest price ==> 184.38 EUR/100 kg

Evolution compared same period last year (Week 11) : + 3.0%

Source:MSs notifications (Commission Implementing Regulation (EC) 2017/1185)

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SLIDE 15

EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018

P R I C E S

E U E V O L U T I O N B R O I L E R

50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 210 230

In €uro/100 kg

Broiler prices in EU, USA and Brazil

EU US BR

Sources : EU = weighted average of MS prices - Broiler 65% US = weekly USDA prices - Fresh chicken grade A ,Chicago BR = average of prices in main producing states - (Aveworld.com.br)

184.38 155.79 79.72

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SLIDE 16

Imports of Poultry meat from selected origins

EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018

E U I M P O R T S B r o i l e r P r o d u c t s

T R A D E

Compared tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to Jan-janv 17 Thailand 251 185 29.7% 274 524 31.4% 290 309 32.2% 265 738 32.9% 26 988 38.6% + 14% Brazil 507 355 60.0% 501 327 57.3% 504 796 56.0% 401 465 49.7% 24 862 35.6%

  • 46%

Ukraine 19 958 2.4% 42 513 4.9% 48 083 5.3% 80 083 9.9% 8 694 12.4% +++ Chile 25 815 3.1% 22 232 2.5% 28 808 3.2% 24 973 3.1% 4 584 6.6% + 26% China 19 761 2.3% 18 403 2.1% 16 946 1.9% 19 203 2.4% 1 938 2.8% + 14% Turkey 16 0.0% 441 0.0% 173 0.0% 1 479 2.1% +++ Argentina 10 996 1.3% 8 529 1.0% 6 463 0.7% 6 300 0.8% 834 1.2% + 9% Switzerland 4 307 0.5% 2 424 0.3% 2 548 0.3% 2 752 0.3% 242 0.3% + 65% Others 6 351 0.8% 4 984 0.6% 3 656 0.4% 6 616 0.8% 242 0.3% #N/A Extra-EU 845 743 874 937 902 051 807 303 69 862 % change + 3.5% + 3.1%

  • 10.5%
  • 9.7%

2014 2015 2016 Jan-janv 18 2017

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SLIDE 17

EU Poultry meat Imports

EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018

E U I M P O R T S B r o i l e r

T R A D E

28 758 23 752 26 988 44 309 46 249 24 862 1 527 199 8 694 80 345 77 408 69 862

10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000 60 000 70 000 80 000 90 000

Jan-janv 16 Jan-janv 17 Jan-janv 18

TONNES cw

EU IMPORTS of Poultry Meat (TONNES cwe)

Thailand Brazil Ukraine Chile China Other origins

98 83 88 85 97 54 203 200 179 50 100 150 200 250 Jan-janv 16 Jan-janv 17 Jan-janv 18

Millions EUR

EU IMPORTS of Poultry Meat (Millions EUR)

Thailand Brazil Ukraine Chile China Other origins

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SLIDE 18

Exports of Poultry Meat to Selected Destinations

EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018

T R A D E

E U E X P O R T S B r o i l e r P r o d u c t s

Compared tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to Jan-janv 17 Ukraine 80 084 5.3% 90 850 6.1% 114 891 7.1% 163 057 9.8% 15 975 12.3% + 54% Ghana 56 900 3.8% 68 283 4.6% 77 018 4.8% 135 298 8.1% 11 726 9.1% + 27% Philippines 57 641 3.8% 100 719 6.8% 126 733 7.8% 128 245 7.7% 11 603 9.0% + 115% Hong Kong 136 177 9.1% 100 944 6.8% 123 771 7.7% 148 272 8.9% 11 063 8.6%

  • 29%

Benin 163 844 10.9% 138 414 9.3% 116 858 7.2% 106 557 6.4% 9 255 7.2% + 2% Saudi Arabia 123 574 8.2% 142 496 9.6% 121 645 7.5% 98 797 5.9% 7 322 5.7%

  • 29%

Vietnam 19 884 1.3% 27 128 1.8% 36 180 2.2% 53 544 3.2% 5 323 4.1% + 35% South Africa 203 412 13.5% 213 577 14.3% 271 092 16.8% 76 180 4.6% 5 154 4.0%

  • 43%

For.JRep.Mac 33 503 2.2% 31 404 2.1% 31 384 1.9% 34 020 2.0% 2 883 2.2% + 35% Switzerland 31 511 2.1% 30 857 2.1% 31 921 2.0% 31 408 1.9% 2 732 2.1% + 6% Russia 68 363 4.5% 1 223 0.1% 1 109 0.1% 993 0.1% 53 0.0%

  • 32%

Other Destinations 529 090 35.2% 543 975 36.5% 564 117 34.9% 686 657 41.3% 46 268 35.8% Extra-EU 1 503 984 1 489 871 1 616 720 1 663 029 129 356 % change

  • 0.9%

+ 8.5% + 2.9% + 9.0% 2014 2015 2016 Jan-janv 18 2017

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SLIDE 19

EU Poultry meat Export

EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018

T R A D E

E U E X P O R T S B r o i l e r

12 426 10 340 15 975 5 801 9 233 11 726 13 099 5 390 11 603 8 600 15 650 11 063 7 908 9 082 9 255 67 869 69 001 69 733 115 703 118 697 129 356

20 000 40 000 60 000 80 000 100 000 120 000 140 000

Jan-janv 16 Jan-janv 17 Jan-janv 18

TONNES cw

EU EXPORTS of Poultry Meat (TONNES cwe)

Ukraine Ghana Philippines Hong Kong Benin Other destinations *

7 6 7 4 6 9 5 4 6 12 22 16 5 7 9 106 104 108 139 150 155

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

Jan-janv 16 Jan-janv 17 Jan-janv 18

Millions EUR

EU EXPORTS of Poultry Meat (Millions EUR)

Ukraine Ghana Philippines Hong Kong Benin Other destinations * * countries trading less than 155 ('Millions EUR)

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SLIDE 20

EU Poultry meat Trade Balance

EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018

T R A D E B A L A N C E

302 277 292 310 371 676 794 480 614 616 858 891 876 821 857 855 807 846 875 902 807 70

1 017 1 101 1 116 1 153 1 114 1 275 1 063 1 046 997 997 867 982 1 016 1 265 1 504 1 431 1 428 1 504 1 490 1 617 1 663 129

200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 1 600 1 800

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Jan- janv 18

in 1000 Tonnes cwe

IMPORTS EXPORTS

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SLIDE 21

EU Poultry meat trade balance (in 1000 euros)

EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018

T R A D E B A L A N C E

2 241 2 234 2 097 2 190 2 342 2 161 2 025 179 1 853 2 066 2 089 2 055 2 121 1 954 1 995 155

500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Jan-janv 18

in Millions Euros

IMPORTS EXPORTS

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SLIDE 22

EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018

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SLIDE 23

EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018

Weekly epidemic curve for HPAI H5 outbreaks in poultry reported via ADNS (01/10/2016 - 19/03/2018)

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

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SLIDE 24

HPAI in poultry, captive birds and wild birds 01/10/2016-19/03/2018 (MS affected in 2017 in red, 2018

  • utbreaks in blue)

Member State Wild birds Poultry Captive birds GERMANY 1261 92 15 FRANCE 72 486 3 ITALY 24 83 (3) NETHERLANDS 189 10(2) 11 (1) BELGIUM 4 2 13 LUXEMBOURG 4 UNITED KINGDOM 133 13 IRELAND 13 DENMARK 78 1 1 GREECE 12 6 SPAIN 3 10 PORTUGAL 1 AUSTRIA 21 2 1 FINLAND 14 1 SWEDEN 40 4 2 CYPRUS 1 CZECH REPUBLIC 49 38 1 HUNGARY 196 240 5 POLAND 303 65 SLOVENIA 273 BULGARIA 20 76 (1) 2 LITHUANIA 13 ROMANIA 143 45 2 SLOVAKIA 252 9 2 CROATIA 48 11

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EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018

Where to find data:

  • http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/markets/index_en.

htm

  • Click on link: Poultry
  • Click on link: Presentations and prices

(righthand side under: in this chapter)

  • Choose the item (link) you want
  • Poultry dashboard
  • http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/dashboards/poultry
  • meat-dashboard_en.pdf

EUROPA SITE MARKETS