Estimated Average 2013 - 2042 State Oil Revenues ($2012 Billion - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Jan 02, 2024 191 likes •271 views

Estimated Average 2013 - 2042 State Oil Revenues ($2012 Billion Dollars) Under Potential Production and Tax Scenarios ACES v. HCS CS SB21 (RES) $90 West Coast ANS ($2012) $4.5 4.0 ($2012 Billion Dollars) $4.3 $4.2 3.5 $3.8 $3.7 3.0 $3.1

SLIDE 1

Econ One Research

1 $2.6 $2.3 $3.0 $3.7 $4.2 $2.4 $3.1 $3.8 $4.3 ACES (6% Base Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (6% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (3% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (1% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (0% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (6% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (3% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (1% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (0% Decline) 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 $4.5 ($2012 Billion Dollars)

Estimated Average 2013 - 2042 State Oil Revenues ($2012 Billion Dollars) Under Potential Production and Tax Scenarios ACES v. HCS CS SB21 (RES) $90 West Coast ANS ($2012)

$3.3 $3.0 $3.7 $4.2 $3.1 $3.8 $4.3 ACES (3% Base Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (3% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (1% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (0% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (3% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (1% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (0% Decline) 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 $4.5 ($2012 Billion Dollars) 33% Base Tax Rate 35% Base Tax Rate

Analysis Prepared at the Request of Representative Gara.

33% Base Tax Rate 35% Base Tax Rate

Note: All volumes over base assumed to qualify for GRE and carry 1/6th royalty.

SLIDE 2

Econ One Research

2 $3.3 $2.8 $3.6 $4.4 $5.0 $2.9 $3.7 $4.5 $5.1 ACES (6% Base Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (6% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (3% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (1% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (0% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (6% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (3% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (1% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (0% Decline) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 $6.0 ($2012 Billion Dollars)

Estimated Average 2013 - 2042 State Oil Revenues ($2012 Billion Dollars) Under Potential Production and Tax Scenarios ACES v. HCS CS SB21 (RES) $100 West Coast ANS ($2012)

$4.3 $3.7 $4.5 $5.0 $3.8 $4.6 $5.1 ACES (3% Base Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (3% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (1% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (0% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (3% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (1% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (0% Decline) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 $6.0 ($2012 Billion Dollars) 33% Base Tax Rate 35% Base Tax Rate

Analysis Prepared at the Request of Representative Gara.

33% Base Tax Rate 35% Base Tax Rate

Note: All volumes over base assumed to qualify for GRE and carry 1/6th royalty.

SLIDE 3

Econ One Research

3 $4.0 $3.3 $4.2 $5.1 $5.7 $3.4 $4.3 $5.3 $5.9 ACES (6% Base Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (6% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (3% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (1% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (0% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (6% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (3% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (1% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (0% Decline) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 $6.0 ($2012 Billion Dollars)

Estimated Average 2013 - 2042 State Oil Revenues ($2012 Billion Dollars) Under Potential Production and Tax Scenarios ACES v. HCS CS SB21 (RES) $110 West Coast ANS ($2012)

$5.2 $4.3 $5.2 $5.8 $4.4 $5.3 $5.9 ACES (3% Base Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (3% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (1% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (0% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (3% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (1% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (0% Decline) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 $6.0 ($2012 Billion Dollars) 33% Base Tax Rate 35% Base Tax Rate

Analysis Prepared at the Request of Representative Gara.

33% Base Tax Rate 35% Base Tax Rate

Note: All volumes over base assumed to qualify for GRE and carry 1/6th royalty.

SLIDE 4

Econ One Research

4 $4.8 $3.7 $4.8 $5.8 $6.5 $3.8 $4.9 $6.0 $6.7 ACES (6% Base Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (6% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (3% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (1% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (0% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (6% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (3% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (1% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (0% Decline) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 $7.0 ($2012 Billion Dollars)

Estimated Average 2013 - 2042 State Oil Revenues ($2012 Billion Dollars) Under Potential Production and Tax Scenarios ACES v. HCS CS SB21 (RES) $120 West Coast ANS ($2012)

$6.2 $4.8 $5.9 $6.6 $5.0 $6.1 $6.8 ACES (3% Base Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (3% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (1% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (0% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (3% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (1% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (0% Decline) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 $7.0 ($2012 Billion Dollars) 33% Base Tax Rate 35% Base Tax Rate

Analysis Prepared at the Request of Representative Gara.

33% Base Tax Rate 35% Base Tax Rate

Note: All volumes over base assumed to qualify for GRE and carry 1/6th royalty.

SLIDE 5

Econ One Research

5 $5.5 $4.2 $5.4 $6.5 $7.3 $4.3 $5.5 $6.7 $7.5 ACES (6% Base Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (6% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (3% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (1% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (0% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (6% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (3% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (1% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (0% Decline) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 $8.0 ($2012 Billion Dollars)

Estimated Average 2013 - 2042 State Oil Revenues ($2012 Billion Dollars) Under Potential Production and Tax Scenarios ACES v. HCS CS SB21 (RES) $130 West Coast ANS ($2012)

$7.2 $5.4 $6.6 $7.4 $5.6 $6.8 $7.6 ACES (3% Base Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (3% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (1% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (0% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (3% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (1% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (0% Decline) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 $8.0 ($2012 Billion Dollars) 33% Base Tax Rate 35% Base Tax Rate

Analysis Prepared at the Request of Representative Gara.

33% Base Tax Rate 35% Base Tax Rate

Note: All volumes over base assumed to qualify for GRE and carry 1/6th royalty.

SLIDE 6

Econ One Research

6 $6.3 $4.6 $6.0 $7.3 $8.1 $4.8 $6.1 $7.5 $8.3 ACES (6% Base Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (6% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (3% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (1% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (0% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (6% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (3% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (1% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (0% Decline) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 $9.0 ($2012 Billion Dollars)

Estimated Average 2013 - 2042 State Oil Revenues ($2012 Billion Dollars) Under Potential Production and Tax Scenarios ACES v. HCS CS SB21 (RES) $140 West Coast ANS ($2012)

$8.2 $6.1 $7.4 $8.2 $6.2 $7.6 $8.4 ACES (3% Base Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (3% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (1% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (0% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (3% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (1% Decline) HCS CS SB21 (RES) (0% Decline) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 $9.0 ($2012 Billion Dollars) 33% Base Tax Rate 35% Base Tax Rate

Analysis Prepared at the Request of Representative Gara.

33% Base Tax Rate 35% Base Tax Rate

Note: All volumes over base assumed to qualify for GRE and carry 1/6th royalty.

SLIDE 7

Econ One Research

7

Estimated Additional Annual Volumes Needed (2013 - 2042) Under HCS CS SB21 (RES) to Match State Oil Revenues ($2012 Billion Dollars) Under ACES at 6% and 3% Decline Rates

Analysis Prepared at the Request of Representative Gara.

Note: All volumes over base assumed to qualify for GRE and carry 1/6th royalty.

9.9 16.8 24.4 30.9 35.3 37.6 6.5 13.8 20.8 26.8 30.6 33.3 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 $140 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 $140 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 West Coast ANS ($2012) (Million Barrels Per Year) 33% Base Tax Rate 35% Base Tax Rate

ACES at 6% Base Decline Rate

12.9 22.0 31.9 40.5 46.1 49.2 8.5 18.0 27.2 35.0 40.1 43.6 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 $140 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 $140 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 West Coast ANS ($2012) (Million Barrels Per Year) 33% Base Tax Rate 35% Base Tax Rate

Econ One Research

Estimated Average 2013 - 2042 State Oil Revenues ($2012 Billion Dollars) Under Potential Production and Tax Scenarios ACES v. HCS CS SB21 (RES) $90 West Coast ANS ($2012)

Analysis Prepared at the Request of Representative Gara.

33% Base Tax Rate 35% Base Tax Rate

Econ One Research

Estimated Average 2013 - 2042 State Oil Revenues ($2012 Billion Dollars) Under Potential Production and Tax Scenarios ACES v. HCS CS SB21 (RES) $100 West Coast ANS ($2012)

Analysis Prepared at the Request of Representative Gara.

33% Base Tax Rate 35% Base Tax Rate

Econ One Research

Estimated Average 2013 - 2042 State Oil Revenues ($2012 Billion Dollars) Under Potential Production and Tax Scenarios ACES v. HCS CS SB21 (RES) $110 West Coast ANS ($2012)

Analysis Prepared at the Request of Representative Gara.

33% Base Tax Rate 35% Base Tax Rate

Econ One Research

Estimated Average 2013 - 2042 State Oil Revenues ($2012 Billion Dollars) Under Potential Production and Tax Scenarios ACES v. HCS CS SB21 (RES) $120 West Coast ANS ($2012)

Analysis Prepared at the Request of Representative Gara.

33% Base Tax Rate 35% Base Tax Rate

Econ One Research

Estimated Average 2013 - 2042 State Oil Revenues ($2012 Billion Dollars) Under Potential Production and Tax Scenarios ACES v. HCS CS SB21 (RES) $130 West Coast ANS ($2012)

Analysis Prepared at the Request of Representative Gara.

33% Base Tax Rate 35% Base Tax Rate

Econ One Research

Estimated Average 2013 - 2042 State Oil Revenues ($2012 Billion Dollars) Under Potential Production and Tax Scenarios ACES v. HCS CS SB21 (RES) $140 West Coast ANS ($2012)

Analysis Prepared at the Request of Representative Gara.

33% Base Tax Rate 35% Base Tax Rate

Econ One Research

7

Estimated Additional Annual Volumes Needed (2013 - 2042) Under HCS CS SB21 (RES) to Match State Oil Revenues ($2012 Billion Dollars) Under ACES at 6% and 3% Decline Rates

Analysis Prepared at the Request of Representative Gara.

9.9 16.8 24.4 30.9 35.3 37.6 6.5 13.8 20.8 26.8 30.6 33.3 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 $140 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 $140 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 West Coast ANS ($2012) (Million Barrels Per Year) 33% Base Tax Rate 35% Base Tax Rate

ACES at 6% Base Decline Rate

12.9 22.0 31.9 40.5 46.1 49.2 8.5 18.0 27.2 35.0 40.1 43.6 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 $140 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 $140 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 West Coast ANS ($2012) (Million Barrels Per Year) 33% Base Tax Rate 35% Base Tax Rate

ACES at 3% Base Decline Rate