Enhancing the flexible ramping product to better address net load - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶

Jul 28, 2023 411 likes •565 views

Enhancing the flexible ramping product to better address net load uncertainty Ryan Kurlinski Manager, Analysis and Mitigation Group Department of Market Monitoring California Independent System Operator Western EIM Body of State Regulators

SLIDE 1

ISO Public

Enhancing the flexible ramping product to better address net load uncertainty

Ryan Kurlinski Manager, Analysis and Mitigation Group Department of Market Monitoring California Independent System Operator Western EIM Body of State Regulators Webinar June 12, 2020

SLIDE 2

ISO Public

DMM has made 3 major recommendations for improving initial flexible ramping product design

1. Locational  account for transmission constraints

 Being addressed in current FRP initiative  DMM supports the most recent proposal

2. Procure flexible capacity in day-ahead market

 CAISO is developing design in day-ahead market enhancements initiative

3. Incorporate uncertainty about what net load will be 1 to

4 hours out from current real-time market run

Purpose of today’s talk: Explain this recommendation

Page 2

SLIDE 3

ISO Public

To increase upward ramping capacity, CAISO grid operators make significant upward adjustments to the demand for energy used by the real-time market software to dispatch bids.

4,000 8,000 12,000 16,000 20,000 24,000 28,000 32,000 36,000 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Net system load (MW) Manual load adjustment (MW) Hour of day ( July - September 2019) Hour-ahead load adjustment 15-minute market load adjustment 5-minute market load adjustment Net load

Page 3

SLIDE 4

ISO Public

CAISO operators also commit extra gas-fired capacity after day-ahead market and ramp units up in real-time to create more upward ramping capacity.

These are referred to as out-of-market or exceptional dispatches.

Page 4

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 100 200 300 400 500 600 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Average system net load (MW) Average hourly energy (MW) Hour of day (July - Sept 2019)

Other real-time manual energy dispatches (gas units only) Manual energy dispatches to increase ramp/manage load uncertainty Minimum operating level of gas units comitted manually Net load

SLIDE 5

ISO Public Page 5

Picturing uncertainty: probability density functions

At a given point in time, net load at a time in the future is a random variable with a range
f uncertainty that can be characterized by a probability density function.
A wider probability density function indicates wider range of uncertainty.
CAISO characterizes upper end of range of possible outcomes using 97.5th percentile.

SLIDE 6

ISO Public Page 6

In real-time, the market software uses net load forecast for every interval up to 4.5 hours in future to determine optimal schedules at the current interval (e.g. 13:45 in this example).

SLIDE 7

ISO Public Page 7

At 13:45 the uncertainty over what net load may actually be at each point in time over the next 4.5 hours grows further out in the future.

SLIDE 8

ISO Public Page 8

Flexible ramping product has improved real-time software by considering some uncertainty around the net load forecast for every interval 4.5 hours in future used to determine optimal schedules at the current interval.

SLIDE 9

ISO Public Page 9

The “15 minute” uncertainty used by FRP is substantially less than actual uncertainty over what net load forecast may be 1 to 4 hours in future

SLIDE 10

ISO Public Page 10

The real-time market software does not optimally position resource fleet to meet potential high net load outcomes 1 to 4 hours in the future.

SLIDE 11

ISO Public Page 11

For example, software will miss opportunity to start units with 3 hour start times that are needed by 17:00 to meet potential high net load outcomes– requires manual operator interventions

SLIDE 12

ISO Public Page 12

Considering actual net load uncertainty 1 to 4 hours in future would allow the real-time software to position resources to meet higher potential net load outcomes.

SLIDE 13

ISO Public

For questions, comments, or more information:

Department of Market Monitoring website:

– http://www.caiso.com/market/Pages/MarketMonitoring/Default.aspx

DMM quarterly and annual reports

– http://www.caiso.com/market/Pages/MarketMonitoring/AnnualQuart erlyReports/Default.aspx

DMM comments on 2020 market design initiatives

– http://www.caiso.com/Pages/documentsbygroup.aspx?GroupID=E0 E702C8-DC83-4625-98E2-36230535B44A

Email for Ryan Kurlinski

– rkurlinski@caiso.com

Slide 13