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EMF 22: Climate Policy Scenarios for Stabilisation and in Transition Tsukuba International Congress Center (Epochal) Tsukuba, Japan December 12-14, 2006 Claudia Kemfert & Truong Truong Ort, Datum Autor Climate Policy, R&D and the

  1. EMF 22: Climate Policy Scenarios for Stabilisation and in Transition Tsukuba International Congress Center (Epochal) Tsukuba, Japan December 12-14, 2006 Claudia Kemfert & Truong Truong Ort, Datum Autor

  2. Climate Policy, R&D and the EU-ETS Tsukuba International Congress Center (Epochal) Tsukuba, Japan December 12-14, 2006 Claudia Kemfert & Truong Truong Ort, Datum Autor

  3. European Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS) * “ The Environmental and Economic Effects of Europena Emissions Trading”, by Claudia Kemfert, Michael Kohlhaas, Truong Truong, and Artem Protsenko ( forthcoming in Climate Policy ). [KKTP] * “Over-Allocation or Abatement? A Preliminary Analysis of the Eu Ets Based on the 2005 Emissions Data”, by Denny Ellerman and Barbara Buchner FEEM Working Paper 139.2006, November 2006. [EB]

  4. Percentage change in emissions for period 2005-2007 (*) Electricity Oil_Pcts Metals Min_Prod Paper Motor_Equip Constr Tex-tile Oth_Ind ¥Sector Region -8.9 -7.9 -3.5 -4.3 -3.6 -4.9 -4.6 -5.9 aut bel -27.4 -5.3 -5.3 -5.3 -5.3 -5.3 -5.3 -5.3 -5.3 -26.2 -7.1 -7.1 -7.1 -7.1 -7.1 -7.1 -7.1 -7.1 dnk fin -12.5 -0.4 -2.8 -10.3 -8.1 fra deu -3.1 -2.6 -0.5 -0.4 -1 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -6.5 -16.8 -6.6 grc gbr -8.7 -0.9 -18.4 -5.7 -3.3 -3.3 -2.9 -2.5 -5.5 -4.2 -1.7 -3.4 ita nld -7.8 -7.8 -7.8 -7.8 -7.8 -7.8 -7.8 -7.8 -7.8 -6.2 -1.2 prt esp -6.5 -3.6 -2.9 -5.4 -4.5 -13.9 -13.9 -13.9 -13.9 -13.9 -13.9 -13.9 -13.9 -13.9 swe cze -4.5 -4.3 -4.6 -4.5 -4.1 -3.1 -5.1 -5.1 -5.1 -5.1 hun pol -9.3 -3.8 -10.3 -2 -7.5 (*) (Allocated emissions – Projected Emissions)/(Projected Emissions) * 100

  5. Marginal Abatement Cost ($/t CO2) Electricity Oil_Pcts Metals Min_Prod Paper Motor_Equip Constr Tex-tile Oth_Ind ¥Sector Region aut 3.8 42.2 1.6 3.0 1.0 2.0 3.2 2.0 bel 11.5 32.3 1.6 4.4 3.2 5.7 6.4 3.5 7.7 dnk 7.5 50.5 0.2 1.1 0.1 9.4 0.1 fin 8.0 fra 0.5 17.3 4.1 11.6 deu 1.6 22.5 0.7 0.5 0.7 1.5 2.4 1.4 1.8 grc 2.8 137.0 0.7 gbr 2.2 13.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 ita 2.8 2.1 2.6 1.7 nld 3.8 30.7 1.8 8.7 1.1 0.2 0.4 13.9 prt 2.0 1.6 esp 2.3 19.2 1.3 6.8 3.4 swe 5.1 163.1 10.7 16.2 15.0 13.4 26.9 18.7 8.8 cze 1.1 53.8 1.3 2.5 1.4 hun 1.0 28.6 1.9 3.9 1.9 pol 2.3 45.8 2.9 1.3 2.6

  6. Marginal Abatement Cost ($/t CO2) Electricity Oil_Pcts Metals Min_Prod Paper Motor_Equip Constr Tex-tile Oth_Ind Emissions Trading ¥Sector Domestic Region aut 3.8 42.2 1.6 3.0 1.0 2.0 3.2 2.0 3.7 bel 11.5 32.3 1.6 4.4 3.2 5.7 6.4 3.5 7.7 8.0 dnk 7.5 50.5 0.2 1.1 0.1 9.4 0.1 6.1 fin 8.0 8.0 fra 0.5 17.3 4.1 11.6 2.0 deu 1.6 22.5 0.7 0.5 0.7 1.5 2.4 1.4 1.8 1.5 grc 2.8 137.0 0.7 3.5 gbr 2.2 13.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.8 ita 2.8 2.1 2.6 1.7 2.6 nld 3.8 30.7 1.8 8.7 1.1 0.2 0.4 13.9 3.5 prt 2.0 1.6 2.0 esp 2.3 19.2 1.3 6.8 3.4 2.8 swe 5.1 163.1 10.7 16.2 15.0 13.4 26.9 18.7 8.8 8.4 cze 1.1 53.8 1.3 2.5 1.4 1.2 hun 1.0 28.6 1.9 3.9 1.9 1.3 pol 2.3 45.8 2.9 1.3 2.6 2.2

  7. Marginal Abatement Cost ($/t CO2) Electricity Oil_Pcts Metals Min_Prod Paper Motor_Equip Constr Tex-tile Oth_Ind Emissions Trading ¥Sector Domestic Regio-nal Region aut 3.8 42.2 1.6 3.0 1.0 2.0 3.2 2.0 3.7 2.0 bel 11.5 32.3 1.6 4.4 3.2 5.7 6.4 3.5 7.7 8.0 2.0 dnk 7.5 50.5 0.2 1.1 0.1 9.4 0.1 6.1 2.0 fin 8.0 8.0 2.0 fra 0.5 17.3 4.1 11.6 2.0 2.0 deu 1.6 22.5 0.7 0.5 0.7 1.5 2.4 1.4 1.8 1.5 2.0 grc 2.8 137.0 0.7 3.5 2.0 gbr 2.2 13.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.8 2.0 ita 2.8 2.1 2.6 1.7 2.6 2.0 nld 3.8 30.7 1.8 8.7 1.1 0.2 0.4 13.9 3.5 2.0 prt 2.0 1.6 2.0 2.0 esp 2.3 19.2 1.3 6.8 3.4 2.8 2.0 swe 5.1 163.1 10.7 16.2 15.0 13.4 26.9 18.7 8.8 8.4 2.0 cze 1.1 53.8 1.3 2.5 1.4 1.2 2.0 hun 1.0 28.6 1.9 3.9 1.9 1.3 2.0 pol 2.3 45.8 2.9 1.3 2.6 2.2 2.0

  8. Marginal Abatement Cost ($/t CO2) Electricity Oil_Pcts Metals Min_Prod Paper Motor_Equip Constr Tex-tile Oth_Ind over (+) or Emissions under (-) Trading allocation ¥Sector Domestic Regio-nal Region from MAC conside ration - aut 3.8 42.2 1.6 3.0 1.0 2.0 3.2 2.0 3.7 2.0 - bel 11.5 32.3 1.6 4.4 3.2 5.7 6.4 3.5 7.7 8.0 2.0 - dnk 7.5 50.5 0.2 1.1 0.1 9.4 0.1 6.1 2.0 - fin 8.0 8.0 2.0 + fra 0.5 17.3 4.1 11.6 2.0 2.0 + deu 1.6 22.5 0.7 0.5 0.7 1.5 2.4 1.4 1.8 1.5 2.0 - grc 2.8 137.0 0.7 3.5 2.0 + gbr 2.2 13.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.8 2.0 - ita 2.8 2.1 2.6 1.7 2.6 2.0 - nld 3.8 30.7 1.8 8.7 1.1 0.2 0.4 13.9 3.5 2.0 + prt 2.0 1.6 2.0 2.0 - esp 2.3 19.2 1.3 6.8 3.4 2.8 2.0 - swe 5.1 163.1 10.7 16.2 15.0 13.4 26.9 18.7 8.8 8.4 2.0 + cze 1.1 53.8 1.3 2.5 1.4 1.2 2.0 + hun 1.0 28.6 1.9 3.9 1.9 1.3 2.0 pol 2.3 45.8 2.9 1.3 2.6 2.2 2.0

  9. Percentage change in emissions for period 2005-2007 (*) Electricity Oil_Pcts Metals Min_Prod Paper Motor_Equip Constr Tex-tile Oth_Ind Emissions Trading Trading Domestic ¥Sector Region -8.9 -7.9 -3.5 -4.3 -3.6 -4.9 -4.6 -5.9 aut -4.3 bel -27.4 -5.3 -5.3 -5.3 -5.3 -5.3 -5.3 -5.3 -5.3 -8.5 -26.2 -7.1 -7.1 -7.1 -7.1 -7.1 -7.1 -7.1 -7.1 dnk -15.1 fin -12.5 -6.2 -0.4 -2.8 -10.3 -8.1 fra -1.5 deu -3.1 -2.6 -0.5 -0.4 -1 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -1.8 -6.5 -16.8 -6.6 grc -3.4 gbr -8.7 -0.9 -18.4 -5.7 -3.3 -3.3 -2.9 -2.5 -5.0 -5.5 -4.2 -1.7 -3.4 ita -2.5 nld -7.8 -7.8 -7.8 -7.8 -7.8 -7.8 -7.8 -7.8 -7.8 -3.7 -6.2 -1.2 prt -2.5 esp -6.5 -3.6 -2.9 -5.4 -4.5 -3.2 -13.9 -13.9 -13.9 -13.9 -13.9 -13.9 -13.9 -13.9 -13.9 swe -6.3 cze -4.5 -4.3 -4.6 -4.5 -4.1 -3.5 -3.1 -5.1 -5.1 -5.1 -5.1 hun -2.4 pol -9.3 -3.8 -10.3 -2 -7.5 -6.4 (*) (Allocated emissions – Projected Emissions)/(Projected Emissions) * 100

  10. Percentage change in emissions for period 2005-2007 (*) Electricity Oil_Pcts Metals Min_Prod Paper Motor_Equip Constr Tex-tile Oth_Ind Emissions Trading Trading Domestic Trading Regional ¥Sector Region -8.9 -7.9 -3.5 -4.3 -3.6 -4.9 -4.6 -5.9 aut -4.3 -2.0 bel -27.4 -5.3 -5.3 -5.3 -5.3 -5.3 -5.3 -5.3 -5.3 -8.5 -2.4 -26.2 -7.1 -7.1 -7.1 -7.1 -7.1 -7.1 -7.1 -7.1 dnk -15.1 -6.2 fin -12.5 -6.2 -1.2 -0.4 -2.8 -10.3 -8.1 fra -1.5 -1.6 deu -3.1 -2.6 -0.5 -0.4 -1 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -1.8 -2.7 -6.5 -16.8 -6.6 grc -3.4 -1.9 gbr -8.7 -0.9 -18.4 -5.7 -3.3 -3.3 -2.9 -2.5 -5.0 -8.7 -5.5 -4.2 -1.7 -3.4 ita -2.5 -1.9 nld -7.8 -7.8 -7.8 -7.8 -7.8 -7.8 -7.8 -7.8 -7.8 -3.7 -2.2 -6.2 -1.2 prt -2.5 -2.6 esp -6.5 -3.6 -2.9 -5.4 -4.5 -3.2 -2.4 -13.9 -13.9 -13.9 -13.9 -13.9 -13.9 -13.9 -13.9 -13.9 swe -6.3 -1.6 cze -4.5 -4.3 -4.6 -4.5 -4.1 -3.5 -7.4 -3.1 -5.1 -5.1 -5.1 -5.1 hun -2.4 -3.9 pol -9.3 -3.8 -10.3 -2 -7.5 -6.4 -6.0 (*) (Allocated emissions – Projected Emissions)/(Projected Emissions) * 100

  11. Percentage change in emissions for period 2005-2007 (*) Electricity Oil_Pcts Metals Min_Prod Paper Motor_Equip Constr Tex-tile Oth_Ind over (+) or Emissions under (-) Trading allocation ¥Sector Trading Domestic Trading Regional Region from ET conside ration -2.3 -8.9 -7.9 -3.5 -4.3 -3.6 -4.9 -4.6 -5.9 aut -4.3 -2.0 -6.1 bel -27.4 -5.3 -5.3 -5.3 -5.3 -5.3 -5.3 -5.3 -5.3 -8.5 -2.4 -8.9 -26.2 -7.1 -7.1 -7.1 -7.1 -7.1 -7.1 -7.1 -7.1 dnk -15.1 -6.2 -5.0 fin -12.5 -6.2 -1.2 +0.1 -0.4 -2.8 -10.3 -8.1 fra -1.5 -1.6 +0.9 deu -3.1 -2.6 -0.5 -0.4 -1 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -1.8 -2.7 -1.5 -6.5 -16.8 -6.6 grc -3.4 -1.9 +3.7 gbr -8.7 -0.9 -18.4 -5.7 -3.3 -3.3 -2.9 -2.5 -5.0 -8.7 -0.6 -5.5 -4.2 -1.7 -3.4 ita -2.5 -1.9 -1.5 nld -7.8 -7.8 -7.8 -7.8 -7.8 -7.8 -7.8 -7.8 -7.8 -3.7 -2.2 +0.1 -6.2 -1.2 prt -2.5 -2.6 -0.8 esp -6.5 -3.6 -2.9 -5.4 -4.5 -3.2 -2.4 -4.7 -13.9 -13.9 -13.9 -13.9 -13.9 -13.9 -13.9 -13.9 -13.9 swe -6.3 -1.6 +3.9 cze -4.5 -4.3 -4.6 -4.5 -4.1 -3.5 -7.4 +1.5 -3.1 -5.1 -5.1 -5.1 -5.1 hun -2.4 -3.9 -0.4 pol -9.3 -3.8 -10.3 -2 -7.5 -6.4 -6.0 (*) (Allocated emissions – Projected Emissions)/(Projected Emissions) * 100

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