EMF 22: Climate Policy Scenarios for Stabilisation and in Transition - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶
emf 22 climate policy scenarios for stabilisation and in
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

EMF 22: Climate Policy Scenarios for Stabilisation and in Transition - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Dec 15, 2023 46 likes •386 views

EMF 22: Climate Policy Scenarios for Stabilisation and in Transition Tsukuba International Congress Center (Epochal) Tsukuba, Japan December 12-14, 2006 Claudia Kemfert & Truong Truong Ort, Datum Autor Climate Policy, R&D and the

slide-1
SLIDE 1

Ort, Datum Autor

EMF 22: Climate Policy Scenarios for Stabilisation and in Transition

Tsukuba International Congress Center (Epochal)

Tsukuba, Japan December 12-14, 2006

Claudia Kemfert & Truong Truong

slide-2
SLIDE 2

Ort, Datum Autor

Climate Policy, R&D and the EU-ETS

Tsukuba International Congress Center (Epochal)

Tsukuba, Japan December 12-14, 2006

Claudia Kemfert & Truong Truong

slide-3
SLIDE 3

European Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS)

* “ The Environmental and Economic Effects of Europena Emissions Trading”, by Claudia Kemfert,

Michael Kohlhaas, Truong Truong, and Artem Protsenko

(forthcoming in Climate Policy). [KKTP]

* “Over-Allocation or Abatement? A Preliminary Analysis of the Eu Ets Based on the 2005 Emissions Data”, by Denny Ellerman and Barbara Buchner FEEM

Working Paper 139.2006, November 2006. [EB]

slide-4
SLIDE 4
  • 7.5
  • 2
  • 10.3
  • 3.8
  • 9.3

pol

  • 5.1
  • 5.1
  • 5.1
  • 5.1
  • 3.1

hun

  • 4.1
  • 4.5
  • 4.6
  • 4.3
  • 4.5

cze

  • 13.9
  • 13.9
  • 13.9
  • 13.9
  • 13.9
  • 13.9
  • 13.9
  • 13.9
  • 13.9

swe

  • 4.5
  • 5.4
  • 2.9
  • 3.6
  • 6.5

esp

  • 1.2
  • 6.2

prt

  • 7.8
  • 7.8
  • 7.8
  • 7.8
  • 7.8
  • 7.8
  • 7.8
  • 7.8
  • 7.8

nld

  • 3.4
  • 1.7
  • 4.2
  • 5.5

ita

  • 2.5
  • 2.9
  • 3.3
  • 3.3
  • 5.7
  • 18.4
  • 0.9
  • 8.7

gbr

  • 6.6
  • 16.8
  • 6.5

grc

  • 2.2
  • 2.2
  • 2.2
  • 2.2
  • 1
  • 0.4
  • 0.5
  • 2.6
  • 3.1

deu

  • 8.1
  • 10.3
  • 2.8
  • 0.4

fra

  • 12.5

fin

  • 7.1
  • 7.1
  • 7.1
  • 7.1
  • 7.1
  • 7.1
  • 7.1
  • 7.1
  • 26.2

dnk

  • 5.3
  • 5.3
  • 5.3
  • 5.3
  • 5.3
  • 5.3
  • 5.3
  • 5.3
  • 27.4

bel

  • 5.9
  • 4.6
  • 4.9
  • 3.6
  • 4.3
  • 3.5
  • 7.9
  • 8.9

aut

Oth_Ind Tex-tile Constr Motor_Equip Paper Min_Prod Metals Oil_Pcts Electricity

¥Sector Region

Percentage change in emissions for period 2005-2007 (*)

(*) (Allocated emissions – Projected Emissions)/(Projected Emissions) * 100

slide-5
SLIDE 5

2.6 1.3 2.9 45.8 2.3 pol 1.9 3.9 1.9 28.6 1.0 hun 1.4 2.5 1.3 53.8 1.1 cze 8.8 18.7 26.9 13.4 15.0 16.2 10.7 163.1 5.1 swe 3.4 6.8 1.3 19.2 2.3 esp 1.6 2.0 prt 13.9 0.4 0.2 1.1 8.7 1.8 30.7 3.8 nld 1.7 2.6 2.1 2.8 ita 0.2 0.3 0.4 13.3 2.2 gbr 0.7 137.0 2.8 grc 1.8 1.4 2.4 1.5 0.7 0.5 0.7 22.5 1.6 deu 11.6 4.1 17.3 0.5 fra 8.0 fin 0.1 9.4 0.1 1.1 0.2 50.5 7.5 dnk 7.7 3.5 6.4 5.7 3.2 4.4 1.6 32.3 11.5 bel 2.0 3.2 2.0 1.0 3.0 1.6 42.2 3.8 aut

Oth_Ind Tex-tile Constr Motor_Equip Paper Min_Prod Metals Oil_Pcts Electricity

¥Sector Region

Marginal Abatement Cost ($/t CO2)

slide-6
SLIDE 6

2.2 2.6 1.3 2.9 45.8 2.3 pol 1.3 1.9 3.9 1.9 28.6 1.0 hun 1.2 1.4 2.5 1.3 53.8 1.1 cze 8.4 8.8 18.7 26.9 13.4 15.0 16.2 10.7 163.1 5.1 swe 2.8 3.4 6.8 1.3 19.2 2.3 esp 2.0 1.6 2.0 prt 3.5 13.9 0.4 0.2 1.1 8.7 1.8 30.7 3.8 nld 2.6 1.7 2.6 2.1 2.8 ita 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.4 13.3 2.2 gbr 3.5 0.7 137.0 2.8 grc 1.5 1.8 1.4 2.4 1.5 0.7 0.5 0.7 22.5 1.6 deu 2.0 11.6 4.1 17.3 0.5 fra 8.0 8.0 fin 6.1 0.1 9.4 0.1 1.1 0.2 50.5 7.5 dnk 8.0 7.7 3.5 6.4 5.7 3.2 4.4 1.6 32.3 11.5 bel 3.7 2.0 3.2 2.0 1.0 3.0 1.6 42.2 3.8 aut

Domestic Emissions Trading Oth_Ind Tex-tile Constr Motor_Equip Paper Min_Prod Metals Oil_Pcts Electricity

¥Sector Region

Marginal Abatement Cost ($/t CO2)

slide-7
SLIDE 7

2.0 2.2 2.6 1.3 2.9 45.8 2.3 pol 2.0 1.3 1.9 3.9 1.9 28.6 1.0 hun 2.0 1.2 1.4 2.5 1.3 53.8 1.1 cze 2.0 8.4 8.8 18.7 26.9 13.4 15.0 16.2 10.7 163.1 5.1 swe 2.0 2.8 3.4 6.8 1.3 19.2 2.3 esp 2.0 2.0 1.6 2.0 prt 2.0 3.5 13.9 0.4 0.2 1.1 8.7 1.8 30.7 3.8 nld 2.0 2.6 1.7 2.6 2.1 2.8 ita 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.4 13.3 2.2 gbr 2.0 3.5 0.7 137.0 2.8 grc 2.0 1.5 1.8 1.4 2.4 1.5 0.7 0.5 0.7 22.5 1.6 deu 2.0 2.0 11.6 4.1 17.3 0.5 fra 2.0 8.0 8.0 fin 2.0 6.1 0.1 9.4 0.1 1.1 0.2 50.5 7.5 dnk 2.0 8.0 7.7 3.5 6.4 5.7 3.2 4.4 1.6 32.3 11.5 bel 2.0 3.7 2.0 3.2 2.0 1.0 3.0 1.6 42.2 3.8 aut

Regio-nal

Domestic Emissions Trading Oth_Ind Tex-tile Constr Motor_Equip Paper Min_Prod Metals Oil_Pcts Electricity

¥Sector Region

Marginal Abatement Cost ($/t CO2)

slide-8
SLIDE 8

2.0 2.2 2.6 1.3 2.9 45.8 2.3 pol + 2.0 1.3 1.9 3.9 1.9 28.6 1.0 hun + 2.0 1.2 1.4 2.5 1.3 53.8 1.1 cze

  • 2.0

8.4 8.8 18.7 26.9 13.4 15.0 16.2 10.7 163.1 5.1 swe

  • 2.0

2.8 3.4 6.8 1.3 19.2 2.3 esp + 2.0 2.0 1.6 2.0 prt

  • 2.0

3.5 13.9 0.4 0.2 1.1 8.7 1.8 30.7 3.8 nld

  • 2.0

2.6 1.7 2.6 2.1 2.8 ita + 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.4 13.3 2.2 gbr

  • 2.0

3.5 0.7 137.0 2.8 grc + 2.0 1.5 1.8 1.4 2.4 1.5 0.7 0.5 0.7 22.5 1.6 deu + 2.0 2.0 11.6 4.1 17.3 0.5 fra

  • 2.0

8.0 8.0 fin

  • 2.0

6.1 0.1 9.4 0.1 1.1 0.2 50.5 7.5 dnk

  • 2.0

8.0 7.7 3.5 6.4 5.7 3.2 4.4 1.6 32.3 11.5 bel

  • 2.0

3.7 2.0 3.2 2.0 1.0 3.0 1.6 42.2 3.8 aut

from MAC conside ration Regio-nal

Domestic

  • ver (+) or

under (-) allocation Emissions Trading Oth_Ind Tex-tile Constr Motor_Equip Paper Min_Prod Metals Oil_Pcts Electricity

¥Sector Region

Marginal Abatement Cost ($/t CO2)

slide-9
SLIDE 9
  • 6.4
  • 7.5
  • 2
  • 10.3
  • 3.8
  • 9.3

pol

  • 2.4
  • 5.1
  • 5.1
  • 5.1
  • 5.1
  • 3.1

hun

  • 3.5
  • 4.1
  • 4.5
  • 4.6
  • 4.3
  • 4.5

cze

  • 6.3
  • 13.9
  • 13.9
  • 13.9
  • 13.9
  • 13.9
  • 13.9
  • 13.9
  • 13.9
  • 13.9

swe

  • 3.2
  • 4.5
  • 5.4
  • 2.9
  • 3.6
  • 6.5

esp

  • 2.5
  • 1.2
  • 6.2

prt

  • 3.7
  • 7.8
  • 7.8
  • 7.8
  • 7.8
  • 7.8
  • 7.8
  • 7.8
  • 7.8
  • 7.8

nld

  • 2.5
  • 3.4
  • 1.7
  • 4.2
  • 5.5

ita

  • 5.0
  • 2.5
  • 2.9
  • 3.3
  • 3.3
  • 5.7
  • 18.4
  • 0.9
  • 8.7

gbr

  • 3.4
  • 6.6
  • 16.8
  • 6.5

grc

  • 1.8
  • 2.2
  • 2.2
  • 2.2
  • 2.2
  • 1
  • 0.4
  • 0.5
  • 2.6
  • 3.1

deu

  • 1.5
  • 8.1
  • 10.3
  • 2.8
  • 0.4

fra

  • 6.2
  • 12.5

fin

  • 15.1
  • 7.1
  • 7.1
  • 7.1
  • 7.1
  • 7.1
  • 7.1
  • 7.1
  • 7.1
  • 26.2

dnk

  • 8.5
  • 5.3
  • 5.3
  • 5.3
  • 5.3
  • 5.3
  • 5.3
  • 5.3
  • 5.3
  • 27.4

bel

  • 4.3
  • 5.9
  • 4.6
  • 4.9
  • 3.6
  • 4.3
  • 3.5
  • 7.9
  • 8.9

aut

Domestic Trading

Emissions Trading Oth_Ind Tex-tile Constr Motor_Equip Paper Min_Prod Metals Oil_Pcts Electricity

¥Sector Region

Percentage change in emissions for period 2005-2007 (*)

(*) (Allocated emissions – Projected Emissions)/(Projected Emissions) * 100

slide-10
SLIDE 10
  • 6.0
  • 6.4
  • 7.5
  • 2
  • 10.3
  • 3.8
  • 9.3

pol

  • 3.9
  • 2.4
  • 5.1
  • 5.1
  • 5.1
  • 5.1
  • 3.1

hun

  • 7.4
  • 3.5
  • 4.1
  • 4.5
  • 4.6
  • 4.3
  • 4.5

cze

  • 1.6
  • 6.3
  • 13.9
  • 13.9
  • 13.9
  • 13.9
  • 13.9
  • 13.9
  • 13.9
  • 13.9
  • 13.9

swe

  • 2.4
  • 3.2
  • 4.5
  • 5.4
  • 2.9
  • 3.6
  • 6.5

esp

  • 2.6
  • 2.5
  • 1.2
  • 6.2

prt

  • 2.2
  • 3.7
  • 7.8
  • 7.8
  • 7.8
  • 7.8
  • 7.8
  • 7.8
  • 7.8
  • 7.8
  • 7.8

nld

  • 1.9
  • 2.5
  • 3.4
  • 1.7
  • 4.2
  • 5.5

ita

  • 8.7
  • 5.0
  • 2.5
  • 2.9
  • 3.3
  • 3.3
  • 5.7
  • 18.4
  • 0.9
  • 8.7

gbr

  • 1.9
  • 3.4
  • 6.6
  • 16.8
  • 6.5

grc

  • 2.7
  • 1.8
  • 2.2
  • 2.2
  • 2.2
  • 2.2
  • 1
  • 0.4
  • 0.5
  • 2.6
  • 3.1

deu

  • 1.6
  • 1.5
  • 8.1
  • 10.3
  • 2.8
  • 0.4

fra

  • 1.2
  • 6.2
  • 12.5

fin

  • 6.2
  • 15.1
  • 7.1
  • 7.1
  • 7.1
  • 7.1
  • 7.1
  • 7.1
  • 7.1
  • 7.1
  • 26.2

dnk

  • 2.4
  • 8.5
  • 5.3
  • 5.3
  • 5.3
  • 5.3
  • 5.3
  • 5.3
  • 5.3
  • 5.3
  • 27.4

bel

  • 2.0
  • 4.3
  • 5.9
  • 4.6
  • 4.9
  • 3.6
  • 4.3
  • 3.5
  • 7.9
  • 8.9

aut

Regional Trading Domestic Trading

Emissions Trading Oth_Ind Tex-tile Constr Motor_Equip Paper Min_Prod Metals Oil_Pcts Electricity

¥Sector Region

Percentage change in emissions for period 2005-2007 (*)

(*) (Allocated emissions – Projected Emissions)/(Projected Emissions) * 100

slide-11
SLIDE 11
  • 0.4
  • 6.0
  • 6.4
  • 7.5
  • 2
  • 10.3
  • 3.8
  • 9.3

pol +1.5

  • 3.9
  • 2.4
  • 5.1
  • 5.1
  • 5.1
  • 5.1
  • 3.1

hun +3.9

  • 7.4
  • 3.5
  • 4.1
  • 4.5
  • 4.6
  • 4.3
  • 4.5

cze

  • 4.7
  • 1.6
  • 6.3
  • 13.9
  • 13.9
  • 13.9
  • 13.9
  • 13.9
  • 13.9
  • 13.9
  • 13.9
  • 13.9

swe

  • 0.8
  • 2.4
  • 3.2
  • 4.5
  • 5.4
  • 2.9
  • 3.6
  • 6.5

esp +0.1

  • 2.6
  • 2.5
  • 1.2
  • 6.2

prt

  • 1.5
  • 2.2
  • 3.7
  • 7.8
  • 7.8
  • 7.8
  • 7.8
  • 7.8
  • 7.8
  • 7.8
  • 7.8
  • 7.8

nld

  • 0.6
  • 1.9
  • 2.5
  • 3.4
  • 1.7
  • 4.2
  • 5.5

ita +3.7

  • 8.7
  • 5.0
  • 2.5
  • 2.9
  • 3.3
  • 3.3
  • 5.7
  • 18.4
  • 0.9
  • 8.7

gbr

  • 1.5
  • 1.9
  • 3.4
  • 6.6
  • 16.8
  • 6.5

grc +0.9

  • 2.7
  • 1.8
  • 2.2
  • 2.2
  • 2.2
  • 2.2
  • 1
  • 0.4
  • 0.5
  • 2.6
  • 3.1

deu +0.1

  • 1.6
  • 1.5
  • 8.1
  • 10.3
  • 2.8
  • 0.4

fra

  • 5.0
  • 1.2
  • 6.2
  • 12.5

fin

  • 8.9
  • 6.2
  • 15.1
  • 7.1
  • 7.1
  • 7.1
  • 7.1
  • 7.1
  • 7.1
  • 7.1
  • 7.1
  • 26.2

dnk

  • 6.1
  • 2.4
  • 8.5
  • 5.3
  • 5.3
  • 5.3
  • 5.3
  • 5.3
  • 5.3
  • 5.3
  • 5.3
  • 27.4

bel

  • 2.3
  • 2.0
  • 4.3
  • 5.9
  • 4.6
  • 4.9
  • 3.6
  • 4.3
  • 3.5
  • 7.9
  • 8.9

aut

from ET conside ration Regional Trading Domestic Trading

  • ver (+) or

under (-) allocation Emissions Trading Oth_Ind Tex-tile Constr Motor_Equip Paper Min_Prod Metals Oil_Pcts Electricity

¥Sector Region

Percentage change in emissions for period 2005-2007 (*)

(*) (Allocated emissions – Projected Emissions)/(Projected Emissions) * 100

slide-12
SLIDE 12

12.8%

  • 0.4
  • 6.0
  • 6.4
  • 7.5
  • 2
  • 10.3
  • 3.8
  • 9.3

pol

13.9%

+1.5

  • 3.9
  • 2.4
  • 5.1
  • 5.1
  • 5.1
  • 5.1
  • 3.1

hun

14.9%

+3.9

  • 7.4
  • 3.5
  • 4.1
  • 4.5
  • 4.6
  • 4.3
  • 4.5

cze

13.3%

  • 4.7
  • 1.6
  • 6.3
  • 13.9
  • 13.9
  • 13.9
  • 13.9
  • 13.9
  • 13.9
  • 13.9
  • 13.9
  • 13.9

swe

  • 6.3%
  • 0.8
  • 2.4
  • 3.2
  • 4.5
  • 5.4
  • 2.9
  • 3.6
  • 6.5

esp

1.3%

+0.1

  • 2.6
  • 2.5
  • 1.2
  • 6.2

prt

7.1%

  • 1.5
  • 2.2
  • 3.7
  • 7.8
  • 7.8
  • 7.8
  • 7.8
  • 7.8
  • 7.8
  • 7.8
  • 7.8
  • 7.8

nld

  • 4.4%
  • 0.6
  • 1.9
  • 2.5
  • 3.4
  • 1.7
  • 4.2
  • 5.5

ita

  • 17.7%

+3.7

  • 8.7
  • 5.0
  • 2.5
  • 2.9
  • 3.3
  • 3.3
  • 5.7
  • 18.4
  • 0.9
  • 8.7

gbr

  • 0.2%
  • 1.5
  • 1.9
  • 3.4
  • 6.6
  • 16.8
  • 6.5

grc

4.2%

+0.9

  • 2.7
  • 1.8
  • 2.2
  • 2.2
  • 2.2
  • 2.2
  • 1
  • 0.4
  • 0.5
  • 2.6
  • 3.1

deu

12.7%

+0.1

  • 1.6
  • 1.5
  • 8.1
  • 10.3
  • 2.8
  • 0.4

fra

25.9%

  • 5.0
  • 1.2
  • 6.2
  • 12.5

fin

29.0%

  • 8.9
  • 6.2
  • 15.1
  • 7.1
  • 7.1
  • 7.1
  • 7.1
  • 7.1
  • 7.1
  • 7.1
  • 7.1
  • 26.2

dnk

5.0%

  • 6.1
  • 2.4
  • 8.5
  • 5.3
  • 5.3
  • 5.3
  • 5.3
  • 5.3
  • 5.3
  • 5.3
  • 5.3
  • 27.4

bel

  • 3.0%
  • 2.3
  • 2.0
  • 4.3
  • 5.9
  • 4.6
  • 4.9
  • 3.6
  • 4.3
  • 3.5
  • 7.9
  • 8.9

aut

from 2006 EU ETS data (**) from MAC conside ration Regional Trading Domestic Trading

  • ver (+) or

under (-) allocation Emissions Trading Oth_Ind Tex-tile Constr Motor_Equip Paper Min_Prod Metals Oil_Pcts Electricity

¥Sector Region

Percentage change in emissions for period 2005-2007 (*)

(**) Table 1, Ellerman and Buchner (2006)

slide-13
SLIDE 13

12.8%

  • 0.4
  • 6.0
  • 6.4
  • 7.5
  • 2
  • 10.3
  • 3.8
  • 9.3

pol

13.9%

+1.5

  • 3.9
  • 2.4
  • 5.1
  • 5.1
  • 5.1
  • 5.1
  • 3.1

hun

14.9%

+3.9

  • 7.4
  • 3.5
  • 4.1
  • 4.5
  • 4.6
  • 4.3
  • 4.5

cze

13.3%

  • 4.7
  • 1.6
  • 6.3
  • 13.9
  • 13.9
  • 13.9
  • 13.9
  • 13.9
  • 13.9
  • 13.9
  • 13.9
  • 13.9

swe

  • 6.3%
  • 0.8
  • 2.4
  • 3.2
  • 4.5
  • 5.4
  • 2.9
  • 3.6
  • 6.5

esp

1.3%

+0.1

  • 2.6
  • 2.5
  • 1.2
  • 6.2

prt

7.1%

  • 1.5
  • 2.2
  • 3.7
  • 7.8
  • 7.8
  • 7.8
  • 7.8
  • 7.8
  • 7.8
  • 7.8
  • 7.8
  • 7.8

nld

  • 4.4%
  • 0.6
  • 1.9
  • 2.5
  • 3.4
  • 1.7
  • 4.2
  • 5.5

ita

  • 17.7%

+3.7

  • 8.7
  • 5.0
  • 2.5
  • 2.9
  • 3.3
  • 3.3
  • 5.7
  • 18.4
  • 0.9
  • 8.7

gbr

  • 0.2%
  • 1.5
  • 1.9
  • 3.4
  • 6.6
  • 16.8
  • 6.5

grc

4.2%

+0.9

  • 2.7
  • 1.8
  • 2.2
  • 2.2
  • 2.2
  • 2.2
  • 1
  • 0.4
  • 0.5
  • 2.6
  • 3.1

deu

12.7%

+0.1

  • 1.6
  • 1.5
  • 8.1
  • 10.3
  • 2.8
  • 0.4

fra

25.9%

  • 5.0
  • 1.2
  • 6.2
  • 12.5

fin

29.0%

  • 8.9
  • 6.2
  • 15.1
  • 7.1
  • 7.1
  • 7.1
  • 7.1
  • 7.1
  • 7.1
  • 7.1
  • 7.1
  • 26.2

dnk

5.0%

  • 6.1
  • 2.4
  • 8.5
  • 5.3
  • 5.3
  • 5.3
  • 5.3
  • 5.3
  • 5.3
  • 5.3
  • 5.3
  • 27.4

bel

  • 3.0%
  • 2.3
  • 2.0
  • 4.3
  • 5.9
  • 4.6
  • 4.9
  • 3.6
  • 4.3
  • 3.5
  • 7.9
  • 8.9

aut

from 2006 EU ETS data (**) from MAC conside ration Regional Trading Domestic Trading

  • ver (+) or

under (-) allocation Emissions Trading Oth_Ind Tex-tile Constr Motor_Equip Paper Min_Prod Metals Oil_Pcts Electricity

¥Sector Region

Percentage change in emissions for period 2005-2007 (*)

(**) Table 1, Ellerman and Buchner (2006)

slide-14
SLIDE 14

R & D, Climate Policy and Technological Change

– Uncertainty with respect to the concept of “Technological Change” or “Technological Progress”, especially when considered as “inducement” from climate policy.

slide-15
SLIDE 15

– Despite considerable progress in ETC (or ITC) research, discrepancies among models and uncertainties of model results remain significant

  • parameter uncertainty
  • structural uncertainty or model uncertainty.

Edenhofer et al. (2005) (*)

(*)“Induced Technological Change: Exploring its Implications for the Economics of

Atmospheric Stabilization”, Synthesis Report from the Innovation Modelling Comparison Project (IMCP), by Ottmar Edenhofer, Kai Lessmann, Claudia Kemfert, Michael Grubb and Jonathan Koehler

slide-16
SLIDE 16

Edenhofer et al. (2005)

slide-17
SLIDE 17

WIAGEM

slide-18
SLIDE 18

WIAGEM

– Intertemporal CGE – 100 years horizon, 5-yearly intervals – 25 regions aggregated into 11 for this study – 14 sectors (including 5 energy sectors) – Induced technical change with respect to energy efficiency – GHGs: CO2, CH4, N2O, HFC, PFC, SF6

slide-19
SLIDE 19

WIAGEM: regions

slide-20
SLIDE 20

WIAGEM: sectors

slide-21
SLIDE 21

National Emissions Reduction target Damages from Climate Change Adaptation Expenditures R&D Investments Energy Efficiency Improvement GDP Loss Reduction of Mitigation Costs Reduction of Abatement Costs

ITC ETC

slide-22
SLIDE 22

0,00 5,00 10,00 15,00 20,00 25,00 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100 in Gt C Baseline without ETC Baseline with ETC 550 without ITC 550 with ITC 500 without ITC 500 with ITC 450 without ITC 450 with ITC 400 without ITC 400 with ITC

Carbon Dioxide Concentrations under Different Emissions Stabilization Scenarios with and without Technological Change

slide-23
SLIDE 23
  • 5

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 with ETC without ITC with ITC without ITC with ITC without ITC with ITC without ITC with ITC Baseline 550 500 450 400 GDP losses in % of baseline

2050 2100

GDP Losses under Different Emissions Stabilization Scenarios

slide-24
SLIDE 24

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100 in US $ (2000) /tC 550 without ITC 550 with ITC 500 without ITC 500 with ITC 450 without ITC 450 with ITC 400 without ITC 400 with ITC

Permit Prices under Different Emissions Stabilization Scenarios

slide-25
SLIDE 25
  • 25,00
  • 20,00
  • 15,00
  • 10,00
  • 5,00

0,00 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100 in % of GDP Baseline ETC 550 550 ITC 500 500 ITC 450 450 ITC 400 400 ITC

Avoided Damage compared with Baseline

slide-26
SLIDE 26

What do we mean by Technological Change, or Technological Progress?

Atkinson and Stiglitz (1969): “…The recent literature on

technological progress has almost entirely been based on the assumption that its effect can be represented as shifting the production function

  • utwards…. this approach seem, however, to have forgotten the origins of

the neo-classical production function: as the number of production processes increases (in an activity analysis model), the production possibilities can be more and more closely approximated by a smooth, differentiable curve. But the different points on the curve still represent different processes of production, and associated with each of these processes there will be certain technical knowledge specific to that technique.

slide-27
SLIDE 27

What do we mean by Technological Change, or Technological Progress?

energy

slide-28
SLIDE 28

What do we mean by Technological Change, or Technological Progress?

K/E Output/E

slide-29
SLIDE 29

What do we mean by Technological Change, or Technological Progress?

K/E Output/E A B C

slide-30
SLIDE 30

What do we mean by Technological Change, or Technological Progress?

K/E Output/E A B C

slide-31
SLIDE 31

Per capita GDP growth (over 5-year)

Per Capita GDP Growth (over 5-yearly period)

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2005 2025 2045 2065 2085 YEAR

%

DC CHIND LAM & RoW

slide-32
SLIDE 32

Level 2 Scenario Results

slide-33
SLIDE 33

Radiative Forcing

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

year

W/m^2

CH 4 N 2O CO 2

slide-34
SLIDE 34

Growth rate of K – Growth rate of E = Growth rate of K/E ratio

3.8 3.6 3.4 3.1 2.8 2.3 1.7 1.0 0.3 JPN 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.2 5.0 4.3 3.4 2.2 0.7 EU15 7.1 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.5 6.8 5.6 3.7 1.2 USA 2045 2040 2035 2030 2025 2020 2015 2010 2005 electricity

7.6 8.8 8.1 7.3 6.1 5.0 3.7 2.1 0.5 JPN 6.9 12.9 12.6 11.8 10.8 9.3 7.4 5.0 1.8 EU15 21.3 29.5 27.0 24.1 22.6 18.7 14.7 10.1 3.8 USA 2045 2040 2035 2030 2025 2020 2015 2010 2005 electricity

Equivalent rate of “Technological Progress” to keep K/E constant and yet achieving the same OUTPUT growth: