Possible EMF 24 Study Topics Possible EMF 24 Study Topics Energy Security Energy Security Technology and Climate Change Technology and Climate Change Bio- -Energy and Climate Change Energy and Climate Change Bio Advanced Energy Efficiency Scenarios Advanced Energy Efficiency Scenarios Accession and Burden Sharing Scenarios Accession and Burden Sharing Scenarios
Technology & Stabilization Topic Technology & Stabilization Topic Broad- -Based Technology Study Based Technology Study Broad – Renewables Renewables, CCS, Nuclear, EE, Non , CCS, Nuclear, EE, Non- -CO2 Gases CO2 Gases – Build on EMFs EMFs 19, 21, Land Group, 22 & 25 19, 21, Land Group, 22 & 25 Build on Co- -ordinate With NREL Initiative & SRRN ordinate With NREL Initiative & SRRN Co Other Possible Synergies? Other Possible Synergies?
Update on EMF Activities Update on EMF Activities Energy Modeling Forum Sponsors and Affiliates Annual Meeting Washington, D.C. John P. Weyant Weyant John P. June 5, 2009 June 5, 2009
EMF Climate Change EMF Climate Change Study Areas/Working Groups/Activities Study Areas/Working Groups/Activities EMF Overview EMF Overview EMF 22: Climate Change Policy Scenarios EMF 22: Climate Change Policy Scenarios EMF 23: World Natural Gas Markets and Trade EMF 23: EMF 24: Uncertainty in Climate Change Policy EMF 25: Energy Efficiency “New Scenarios” Process/IAMC/RCPs Institution And Network Building Institution And Network Building Outreach Outreach
Energy Modeling Forum Objectives Understand Model Differences Understand Strengths and Weaknesses of Existing Models/Methodologies Identify Useful Information and Insights for Corporate Planning and Government Policy Making Identify High Priority Areas for Development of New Data, Analyses, and Modeling Methodologies
EMF Design Principles Broad Participation Focus on Model Comparisons Policy Relevance Decentralized Analysis Wide Dissemination of Results
Key EMF Roles Repository of Information About Models/Modeling/Policy&Modeling Honest Broker – Policy Developers – Model Users – Model Developers – Model Funders Soft Model Assessment Spokesmen for Modeling Community
Shifting Priorities from EMF 22+ Shifting Priorities from EMF 22+ AeroCom & IPCC EMF 22-2009 Stabilization Transition Scenarios Scenarios Uncertainty IAMC Analysis * * Black Land Use Carbon Modeling AIMES New Baseline IA Scenarios IAVC?
Land Use Modeling Land Use Modeling Objectives Objectives – Improve Land Use Components of IA Models Improve Land Use Components of IA Models – – Develop New Methods and Data for This Develop New Methods and Data for This – Co- -ordinators ordinators Co – Steve Rose, EPA Steve Rose, EPA – – Richard Richard Tol Tol, The World , The World – – Tom Tom Hertel Hertel, GTAP, Purdue University , GTAP, Purdue University – Last Meetings Last Meetings – December 12 December 12- -14, 2006 14, 2006 - - Tsukuba Japan Tsukuba Japan – – Next: Snowmass 2008 Next: Snowmass 2008 – Book: Economic Analysis of Land Use in Global Book: Economic Analysis of Land Use in Global Climate Change Policy – – Hertel Hertel, Rose, and , Rose, and Tol Tol 2009. 2009. Climate Change Policy
Black and Organic Carbon Black and Organic Carbon Objectives Objectives – Develop Data on BC/OC for Use in IA Models Develop Data on BC/OC for Use in IA Models – – Determine How to Reflect BC/OC in IA Models Determine How to Reflect BC/OC in IA Models – Co- -ordinators ordinators Co – Ben Ben DeAngelo DeAngelo, EPA , EPA – – Tami Bond, Univ. of Illinois Tami Bond, Univ. of Illinois – – AEROCOM AEROCOM – Last Meeting/Next Meeting Last Meeting/Next Meeting – Last: December 12 Last: December 12- -14, 2006 14, 2006 - - Tsukuba Japan Tsukuba Japan – – Next: Spring 2010@ Next AEROCOM Meeting Next: Spring 2010@ Next AEROCOM Meeting –
EMF 22: Climate Policy Scenarios EMF 22: Climate Policy Scenarios Objectives Objectives – Look at Realistic Transition Scenarios Look at Realistic Transition Scenarios – – Compare With Compare With “ “Efficient Efficient” ” Scenarios Scenarios – – Three Parts: Global, US, and EU Three Parts: Global, US, and EU – Co- -ordinators ordinators Co – Leon Clarke, JGCRI, US (Super Co-ordinator) – Christoph Böhringer, Oldenberg University, Germany – Tom Rutherford, ETH, Switzerland Meetings – September 2008, IIASA (Austria) – March, 2009 UMD (USA) – Current: DC Briefing (Yesterday) – Brussels, Tokyo, Negotiators Briefings Publication – Energy Economics Special Issue-Soon
Baseline and Stabilization Scenarios Baseline and Stabilization Scenarios Objectives Objectives – Create New Community Reference Scenarios Create New Community Reference Scenarios – – Create New Community Stabilization Scenarios Create New Community Stabilization Scenarios – – Evolving EMF and IAMC Roles Evolving EMF and IAMC Roles – Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium – Develop Community Wide Priorities – Develop Community Wide Priorities – Interface With Science and Impacts Communities Interface With Science and Impacts Communities – – Co Co- -ordinators ordinators: : Nakicenovic Nakicenovic, , Kainuma Kainuma, , Weyant Weyant – Energy Modeling Forum Energy Modeling Forum – Implement Some of the Community Implement Some of the Community’ ’s Priorities s Priorities – – Pursue Initiatives of High Value to Affil. And Sponsors Pursue Initiatives of High Value to Affil. And Sponsors – EMF/IAMC Last Meetings/Next Meetings EMF/IAMC Last Meetings/Next Meetings – 2007: Snowmass in August, Netherlands in September 2007: Snowmass in August, Netherlands in September – – 2008: DC in February, IIASA in September 2008: DC in February, IIASA in September – – 2009: September in Japan 2009: September in Japan –
EMF 23 EMF 23 World Natural Gas Markets and Trade World Natural Gas Markets and Trade World Natural Gas Markets and Trade: A Multi-Modeling Perspective , Special Issue of The Energy Journal, 2009.
Current Priorities for EMF 24+ Current Priorities for EMF 24+ Collaborators EMF Clients Baseline IA Scenarios Affiliates AIMES & Sponsors Stabilization Scenarios Modeling IAMC Teams Transition Scenarios Model Users IAVC? Uncertainty Analysis
EMF 24: Uncertainty EMF 24: Uncertainty Objectives Objectives – Design Stochastic Model Comparisons Design Stochastic Model Comparisons – Optimizing Models with Learning and Adapting Optimizing Models with Learning and Adapting (Gary Yohe Yohe) ) (Gary Simulation Models Over Climate Outcomes Simulation Models Over Climate Outcomes (Mort Webster) (Mort Webster) – Possibly Use as Bridge Between Transition Possibly Use as Bridge Between Transition – and Stabilization Scenarios and Stabilization Scenarios Last/Next Meeting Last/Next Meeting – Last: Fall 2008, Wesleyan (Gary Last: Fall 2008, Wesleyan (Gary Yohe Yohe) ) – – Next: Fall 2009, MIT (Mort Webster) Next: Fall 2009, MIT (Mort Webster) –
EMF 25: Energy Efficiency EMF 25: Energy Efficiency Working group has met twice since Working group has met twice since November 2008. November 2008. Group will discuss second- -round scenarios round scenarios Group will discuss second this November. this November. Goal will be to have a preliminary Goal will be to have a preliminary evaluation by spring/summer 2010. evaluation by spring/summer 2010.
Climate Change Impacts and IA Climate Change Impacts and IA Snowmass 2009 Snowmass 2009 – Urban IAV Urban IAV – – Yohe Yohe, , Wilbanks Wilbanks, , Ebi Ebi, , Vallario Vallario – – Improving Usefulness of IA Improving Usefulness of IA – – Richels Richels – – Nordhaus/Naki Nordhaus/Naki Workshop on Tech Change Workshop on Tech Change- -II II – – Modeling Modeling Renewables Renewables – – Doug Doug Arent Arent (NREL) (NREL) – Snowmass IA Website Snowmass IA Website
Institution/Network Building Institution/Network Building (Weyant Weyant) ) ( IPCC Workshops on New Emissions Scenarios IPCC Workshops on New Emissions Scenarios – D.C., IIASA, Seville, D.C., IIASA, Seville, Noordwijkerhout Noordwijkerhout – IPCC AR4 - - WG III Chapter 3 Review Editor WG III Chapter 3 Review Editor IPCC AR4 Start- -Up of EMF Asia Up of EMF Asia – – China/India Workshops China/India Workshops Start Start Up of EMF Latin America Start Up of EMF Latin America – Kick Kick- -off Meeting In Rio in Sept. 2006 off Meeting In Rio in Sept. 2006 – Planning for EMF Africa Planning for EMF Africa
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