[PDF] - Elizabeth Jordan April 6, 2012 Problem POD Despite efforts to PDF Document

SLIDE 1

6/8/2012 1 Elizabeth Jordan April 6, 2012

 Despite efforts to improve community resilience,

ver the past 25 years the number and economic

impact of disasters has increased annually

2

POD Questions Methods Problem Findings

New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina

We still lack a comprehensive theory of disaster recovery

Conclusion

SLIDE 2

6/8/2012 2

 Recovery efforts must incorporate the natural, built and human

systems

 Recent emphasis is on “sustainable recovery” (Smith and Wenger

2006, Mileti 1999, Berke 1993)

 Potential indicators for recovery include: economic growth,

household income levels, population levels, and housing damage index (Liu 2010, Chang 2010)

3

Questions Methods Problem Findings POD Images of the Lower Ninth Ward, New Orleans (NYTimes) Conclusion

4

Questions Methods Problem Findings POD

Vulnerability: exposure to risks from natural hazards and a lack of ability to cope with the impacts of disasters and recover quickly Resilience: the ability to withstand disaster impacts and the ability to cope with those impacts in order to recover quickly

The links between resilience, vulnerability and ability to recovery are still unclear

Conclusion

SLIDE 3

6/8/2012 3 1) Why do communities facing the same disaster

recover differently?

2) What combinations of pre-disaster

community factors, disaster response engineering and planning efforts lead to successful recovery? However, we must first answer:

 What causal factors of recovery are important to study in

cross case comparisons?

 What indicators can be used to measure recovery at the

community level?

5

Methods Problem Findings POD Questions Conclusion

QCA QCA Case D Case Data Co Collec llection ion

6

Problem Findings POD Questions Methods

Variab Variable S le Selecti lection

Content Analysis: Identify Variables Delphi Panel: Variable Selection

Define Recovery Outcomes Identify Communities Select Causal Conditions Assign Values to Community Variables Data Collection Build Truth Table Internal Validity Tests Analyze Results Theory Building Generate Framework Conclusion

SLIDE 4

6/8/2012 4

7

Problem Findings POD Questions Methods

Re

Recove covery ry Strateg Strategy

Pre-Dis

Pre-Disas aster ter

Economic
Infrastructure
Institutional
Social

Causal Factors in Resilience Recovery Indicators

Economic
Environmental
Infrastructure
Social

Conclusion

 QCA was selected for this analysis because it

provides a middle ground between statistical analysis and small-N case studies and retains sensitivity to interactions between variables

8

Problem Findings POD Questions Methods

Qu Quan antitative tative

Variable-based
Large-N populations

Qu Qualit alitative ative

Case-based
Small-N populations

Conclusion

SLIDE 5

6/8/2012 5

9

Problem Findings POD Questions Methods

Hurricane Katrina Flood Inundation by Census Tract (Finch et al 2010)

Pilot Study: New Orleans

www.globalhealthimmersionprograms.org

2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami

Conclusion

10

 Causal Factors

Damage
Economic Capacity
Infrastructure Type
Institutional Capacity
Social Vulnerability
Social Capital
Recovery Funds
Recovery Participation

 Outcome

Population Return

Used existing data to test the QCA method for neighborhood recovery in New Orleans

Data Sources: U.S. Census, LSU survey, New Orleans Neighborhood Partnership Network, Greater New Orleans Community Data Center

Problem POD Questions Methods Findings Conclusion

SLIDE 6

6/8/2012 6

11

Problem Conclusion POD Questions Methods Findings

 Results in pathways to successful recovery

Funds AND EconomicCap OR Funds AND Participation AND SocialCap AND InstitCAP

Variab Variable le Necessity Necessity Suffic fficiency iency ~ SocialVul 0.90 0.89 Participation 0.89 0.82 Infrastructure 0.82 0.81 Funds 0.78 0.61 EconomicCap 0.75 0.93 InstitCap 0.71 0.73 SocialCap 0.65 0.76

 Complete pilot study for multiple recovery

indicators

 Indian Ocean tsunami study

Data collection will occur in Tamil Nadu, India from

June – Sept

15-20 villages selected
Data collected from documentation, in-depth

interviews, observations and focus groups

12

Problem POD Questions Methods Findings Conclusion

SLIDE 7

6/8/2012 7

 Identification of important variables to study

in cross-case comparison

 Consensus building on recovery definition  Cross-case comparison of recovery  Disaster recovery theory building

13

Problem POD Questions Methods Findings Conclusion

 This research is funded under the NSF IMEE

program and by the Mortenson Center for Engineering in Developing Communities

14

SLIDE 8

6/8/2012 8

15

16

Problem Findings Contributions POD Questions Methods  A Delphi panel was used to validate the set of recovery

indicators and causal factors and rate their importance

Adapted from Hallowell, Matthew R. “Qualitative Research: Application of the Delphi Method to CEM”

SLIDE 9

6/8/2012 9

 Analyzed 202 journal articles representing engineering,

social sciences, geography, inter-disciplinary and practitioner viewpoints

17

Problem Contributions POD Questions Methods Findings

Economic Infrastructure Institutional Social Recovery Strategy

Business

Diversity

Income
Income

Disparity

Insurance
Construction

Method

Construction Quality
Maintenance

Practices

Protective

Structures

Supply Chain

Redundancies

Urbanization
Access to Gov't

Resources

Building Codes
Emergency

Preparedness

Environmental

Degradation

Health Services
Response Agency

Capacity

Previous Experience
Recovery Planning
Zoning Regulations
Access to

Transportation

Attachment to Place
Community Age
Disabled

Populations

Education Levels
Gender Equity
Minority Populations
Non-English

Speakers

Social Networks
Access to

Information

Citizen

Participation

Emergent Groups
NGO presence
Recovery Funds
Recovery Goals

 The Delphi panel rated all of these factors as at least

three (“important”) on a five point scale. However, there was some disagreement about what causes vulnerability and what creates resilience

 Performed the same analysis to determine indicators of

community recovery. The infrastructure indicators were used most often in journal articles

18

Problem Contributions POD Questions Methods Findings

Economic Environmental Infrastructure Social

Employment
GNP/ Gov’t Revenue
Housing Values
Income
Number of Businesses
Standard of Living
Air Quality
Debris Removal
Erosion
Water Quality
Facilities & Lifelines
Housing Repair
Transportation
Risk Reduction
Mental Health
Population Return
Perceived Quality of

Life

Social Service

Availability

 Again, the Delphi rated all of these as important (with

the exception of erosion)

SLIDE 10

6/8/2012 10

19

Problem Contributions POD Questions Methods Findings

20

 Variable Operationalization

Dam

Damage: : Depth of flooding by census tract

Econ

Economic Capac Capacity ty: Combination of average income and insurance coverage

Infr

frastru astructure ture A Age: Percentage of housing stock built before 1949

Institu

stitutional C ional Capacity: pacity: Longevity of neighborhood association (coded 0 if no association existed pre-Katrina)

So

Social V al Vulnerabil lnerability: ity: Combination of % over 65, % below 12, % non- white, % disabled, % non-English speaker, % without high school diploma and % without vehicles

Soc

Social Capita Capital: l: Combination of social trust rating (self-reported) and percent living in same home since 1989 or longer

Reco

Recovery ry Fun Funds: level of Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) funds per neighborhood

Reco