Elementary to Elementary to Secondary Transition Early Predictors - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Elementary to Elementary to Secondary Transition

Early Predictors of Grade 9 ‘At Risk’ Classification Classification Simcoe County District School Board

Laura Mills (M.A., Psych) Sandra Sangster (Ph.D, Psych)

R h Q ti Research Question

 Initiatives  Research Question  Research Question

 Do grade 8 behavioural & academic

predictors grade 9 risk? predictors grade 9 risk?

 Do behavioural and academic type indicators

predict risk differently?

S l & M Sample & Measures

SAMPLE:

2007-08 grade 8 cohort



Students matched: 829 IEP, 3076 Non-IEP

INDICATORS:

Grade 8 Transition Profile



Behavioural and Academic Indicators

Grade 9 Grade 9



Number of classes ‘At Risk’



Percent of ‘Academic Level’ classes



Credit Accumulation



Absences



Number of Suspensions



EQAO Math Achievement

METHOD:



Structural Equation Modeling (MPlus)

P di t f Ri k Predictors of Risk

 Latent Variable  Structural Equation Modeling  Structural Equation Modeling  Predictive Analysis

P l Ch t i ti i G8 Personal Characteristics in G8

Non-IEP Students

• S ude

s Self-Motivation 21% Self-Direction 15% Self-Discipline 13% Self Discipline 13%

PERSONAL CHARACTERISTICS EQAO Self-Motivation # < 60% 1 .91 PERSONAL CHARACTERISTICS

• .2

.8 Self-Direction Discipline

Personal

.90 .87 # Suspensions .1 4.4 sc p e # Days Absent

• .2
• .3

% Acad Level # Credits RMSEA = .034

Skill Levels

Non-IEP St dents Students

Numeracy Skills 13% Reading Skills 5% Reading Skills 5% Thinking Skills 7% W iti Skill 11% Writing Skills 11% Note-Taking 12% Organization 20% Oral Presentation 7% Prepared 16% Time Management 22%

SKILL LEVELS G l St d t EQAO Numeracy # < 60% 1 .84 91 General Students

• .3

1

Reading Thinking W iti .91 .81 .84 # Suspensions

.1 .3 .7 .1

Academic Skills

Writing Note Taking 1 # Days Absent

• .2
• .1

.1 1.5

Note-Taking Organization

Readiness Skill

1 .85 .84 69 Presentation % Acad Level

• .1

Prepared Time Management

Skills

.69 .90 .88 Presentation # Credits

• .2

g RMSEA = .053

A d i I Academic Issues

Non-IEP St d t IEP St d t Students IEP Students Assignment Completion 21% 56% Evaluation Results 6% 34% Evaluation Results 6% 34% Exam Performance 7% 37% Test Performance 18% 62% Test Performance 18% 62% Work Habits 22% 53% Work Independently 11% 39% p y % %

ACADEMIC ISSUES G l St d t EQAO Eval Results # < 60% 1 .89 General Students

• .2

Exam Performance Test Performance

Achieve- ment

.88 .97 # Suspensions

.2 .6 .7 .2

Assignment Completion 1 95 # Days Absent

• .1
• .1

1.7

Assignment Completion Work Habits

Diligence

1 .95 .92 .80 Independence % Acad Level

• .1

Independence # Credits

• .3

RMSEA = .044

Di i Discussion

 Behavioural patterns of students that are

recognizable by teachers often predict g y p academic, engagement, and behavioural

• utcomes

 Many behavioural indices are amenable to

change; note-taking organization time change; note taking, organization, time management, independence

N t St Next Steps

Conduct ‘gender differences in risk’ Conduct gender differences in risk analyses Continue to track cohort for longitudinal Continue to track cohort for longitudinal analyses & predictors of success, risk, and dropout dropout Continue to track students through to the completion of grade 10 completion of grade 10 Begin dissemination of findings to inform i programming

Thank-you.