Electrification is challenging the European automotive market Dr. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Electrification is challenging the European automotive market Dr. Thorsten Mehltretter International Conference on Circular Economy in Automotive Industry Bratislava, 06 th November 2017 Wholesale Banking Due to the limited amount of
Wholesale Banking
International Conference on Circular Economy in Automotive Industry Bratislava, 06th November 2017
International Workshop on Circular Economy in Automotive Industry | Thorsten Mehltretter | November 06, 2017
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Image: Daimler
International Workshop on Circular Economy in Automotive Industry | Thorsten Mehltretter | November 06, 2017
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Image: Pferdekosmos
International Workshop on Circular Economy in Automotive Industry | Thorsten Mehltretter | November 06, 2017 3
90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Emission Standard Targets (gCO2/km)
Japan EU India USA (Car) China (Car)
Today
Source: ICCT
International Workshop on Circular Economy in Automotive Industry | Thorsten Mehltretter | November 06, 2017
95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 145 150 155 160 165 170 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 Sales Weighted CO2 Emission [g/km] on NEDC Running Order Mass [kg]
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2015 130 gCO2/km 2021 95 gCO2/km
In 2016, all major OEMs went below their 2015 CO2 target
Source: preliminary data from EEA (2016)
International Workshop on Circular Economy in Automotive Industry | Thorsten Mehltretter | November 06, 2017
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
CO2 Battery Cost Incentives Charging Future
Diesel
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Range NOx Oil price
(in million)
Source: ING Research, PWC, Roland Berger, Morgan Stanley, Statoil, ExxonMobil, BNEF
International Workshop on Circular Economy in Automotive Industry | Thorsten Mehltretter | November 06, 2017
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10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Medium Scenario
Comparison of BEV share forecast to OEM announcement
BEV share of new sales (%)
Most OEMs do not plan beyond 10 years (max. 2030)
A large number of EV model launches have been announced
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025 Q6 e-tron Countryman Mini E I.D. hatch, Crozz & Buzz e-Golf facelift I.D. SUV e-tron Sportback Q4 e-tron EQC EQA EQE & EQS saloons & SUVs 10 new EVs until 2022 Mission E Mission E Macan 80 new models across Volkswagen Group i3 range upgrade X3 i5 i8 Roadster i3 & i8 upgrade 25 EV modell by 2025
Source: Morgan Stanley, own research
International Workshop on Circular Economy in Automotive Industry | Thorsten Mehltretter | November 06, 2017 7
Range is steadily increasing, cap at ~500km (real) range of midsized cars BEV cost parity will be reached 2021-2024 depending on cost increase of ICE
Looking at the three most mentioned barriers:
(Fast) Charging Points are being built up around the world
~4,000
~1,000 ~2,000
100 200 300 2015 2020 2025 2030 Battery Cost USD/kWh
BEV ICE
US$140/kWh ICE cost increase US$250/kWh US$100/kWh
200 400 600 800 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 All Electric Range (km)
Source: CharIn, Morgan Stanley, own research
International Workshop on Circular Economy in Automotive Industry | Thorsten Mehltretter | November 06, 2017
Comparison of drive trains – Complexity combustion vs. electic Power train Fuel tank Air and gasoline intake systems Crankcase, crankshaft Multistage gear Battery Electronic Electronic Engine Singlestage gear
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~4,000 parts ~320 parts
Source: PwC Analysis
International Workshop on Circular Economy in Automotive Industry | Thorsten Mehltretter | November 06, 2017 9
Supplier product impact Minimal impact
Increased content Loss of content
Source: Own illustration based on Morgan Stanley, manufacturers’ images
Exhausts Engine components Transmission Body-in-white Passive safety Lighting Exteriors Tires Seating Brakes Axle Electrical Thermal/HVAC Steering Connectors Lightweight materials Autonomous sensors Battery thermal management Electric motors Batteries Displays, infotainment Interior electronics
Tech shift
Power electronics
International Workshop on Circular Economy in Automotive Industry | Thorsten Mehltretter | November 06, 2017 10
Production and usage throughout lifetime Second Life in stationary applications Re-/Upcycling of components and materials 2025: (Medium Scenario) 46mln EV in car park ≈ 1300 MWh batteries Lifetime: 8 years 3.3mln EV @ end of life 80% of batteries enter 2nd life ≈ 42 MWh ≈ 11 MWh to be recycled
Source: Own estimation based on Medium Scenario shown before
International Workshop on Circular Economy in Automotive Industry | Thorsten Mehltretter | November 06, 2017
Long track record in sustainable financing
First ESR policy Launch of Business Principles First Sustainability report Creation of Groenbank Launch of Sustainability Equity Fund Partnership with UNICEF Start carbon
Sustainability targets Start of Sustainable Lending Team 1997 1999 1998 1996 2000 2005 2007 2010 2012 2014 Sustainability embedded in strategy and purpose 2015 ING issues its first Green Bond
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2016 Rated as the world most sustainable bank & Strategic sustainable dialogues with clients
ING is widely recognised for its efforts in sustainability and is a front runner in this field with recent Sustainability Coordinator roles
Instrument Terms & Conditions Green bond
specific green purposes Green loan
bonds Sustainability related lending proposition
company’s Sustainalytics score
Sustainable financing has become increasingly visible in the markets and completes existing green financing solutions
ING is classified as Industry Leader by Sustainalytics. Of a peer group of 393 publicly listed banks, ING ranks 4th on corporate sustainability and ESG performance.