EIAs short -term oil market outlook 3rd Annual Kay Bailey Hutchinson - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶
eia s short term oil market outlook
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

EIAs short -term oil market outlook 3rd Annual Kay Bailey Hutchinson - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Oct 15, 2023 381 likes •720 views

EIAs short -term oil market outlook 3rd Annual Kay Bailey Hutchinson Center Symposium September 27, 2018 | Austin, Texas By Dr. Linda Capuano, EIA Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis

slide-1
SLIDE 1

www.eia.gov

U.S. Energy Information Administration

Independent Statistics & Analysis

EIA’s short-term oil market outlook

3rd Annual Kay Bailey Hutchinson Center Symposium September 27, 2018 | Austin, Texas By

  • Dr. Linda Capuano, EIA Administrator
slide-2
SLIDE 2

2

Mission: EIA collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment. EIA is the Nation’s source of energy information and, by law, its data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other

  • fficer or employee of the United

States Government.

  • Dr. Linda Capuano, KBH Center - Austin, TX

September 27, 2018

slide-3
SLIDE 3

Success: solid legal foundation and trust

3

  • Dr. Linda Capuano, KBH Center - Austin, TX

September 27, 2018

Legal right to collect

  • Federal Energy Administration Act of 1974 (Public Law 93‐275)
  • Department of Energy (DOE) Organization Act of 1977 (Public Law 95-91)
  • Other legal mandates

Legal obligation to protect

  • Confidential Information Protection and Statistical Efficiency Act (CIPSEA),

Title V of the E-Government Act of 2002 (Pubic Law 107-347)

  • Freedom of Information Act, 5 USC. 552, exemptions 3, 4, and 6
  • Paperwork Reduction Act, 44 U.S.C. 3501
  • Information Quality Act, P.L. No. 106-554; H.R. 5658, Section 515(a)
slide-4
SLIDE 4

Structure of U.S. Statistical System

4

  • Three Branches of Government: Executive; Legislative; and

Judiciary.

  • Executive Branch – 15 Departments
  • 190 Agencies within 15 Departments
  • 90 out of 190 Agencies perform statistical collections of some

sort

  • 13 out of 90 are Principal Federal Statistical Agencies
  • Dr. Linda Capuano, KBH Center - Austin, TX

September 27, 2018

slide-5
SLIDE 5

EIA’s data collection and analytical products integrate all energy sectors

5

  • Dr. Linda Capuano, KBH Center - Austin, TX

September 27, 2018

slide-6
SLIDE 6

EIA mission and stakeholders

Mission: EIA collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy

information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment.

6

  • Dr. Linda Capuano, KBH Center - Austin, TX

September 27, 2018 Examples of Activities

Business/Industry

  • Manufacturers – market research

Energy Sector

  • Consumers – monitor price forecasts
  • Producers – track inventory statistics

Finance/Consulting

  • Commodities Analysts – market response to supply data

Private Citizens

  • Public – research gasoline prices

Government

  • Executive Agencies – WH, DOE, & EPA use EIA data to track

energy markets and program performance and to analyze policy proposals

  • Congress – policy development and agency funding
  • State Governments – planning and program development

Media/Education

  • Journalists – cite energy statistics
  • Teachers – use Energy Kids materials
  • Researchers – energy forecasting and modeling
slide-7
SLIDE 7

EIA Data Products and Tools

  • Dr. Linda Capuano, KBH Center - Austin, TX

September 27, 2018 7

  • Coal Data Browser
  • Crude Import Tool
  • Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
  • Hourly Electric Load Tool
  • Southern California Daily Energy Report
  • Residential Energy Consumption
slide-8
SLIDE 8

EIA Analytical Products

  • Dr. Linda Capuano, KBH Center - Austin, TX

September 27, 2018 8

  • Annual Energy Outlook
  • International Energy Outlook
  • Short-Term Energy Outlook
  • This Week in Petroleum
  • Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
  • Today in Energy
slide-9
SLIDE 9

September Short Term Energy Outlook - Key takeaways

  • Dr. Linda Capuano, KBH Center - Austin, TX

September 27, 2018 9

  • Crude oil prices are expected to remain near current levels as oil markets

are expected to be in relative balance in the coming months

– Pipeline constraints in the Permian basin are expected to contribute to lower Permian well head and Cushing prices – Lower global oil inventory levels and OPEC spare capacity could contribute to oil price volatility and rising prices in the case of supply disruption

  • Growth in global oil demand is expected to be relatively strong in 2018 and

2019, but there is mounting concern over the pace of economic growth that could trigger downward pressure on oil prices

  • Crude oil and natural gas plant liquid production in the United States is

expected to continue to grow strongly, even with pipeline constraints

slide-10
SLIDE 10

EIA forecasts crude oil prices to generally remain near current levels through the end of 2019

  • Dr. Linda Capuano, KBH Center - Austin, TX

September 27, 2018 10

Crude oil spot prices (monthly average) dollars per barrel (nominal)

Sources: Thomson Reuters; EIA, September 2018 Short-Term Energy Outlook

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Brent WTI forecast

slide-11
SLIDE 11

A forecast for mostly balanced crude oil markets contributes to the expectation of a narrow range for prices

  • Dr. Linda Capuano, KBH Center - Austin, TX

September 27, 2018 11

Global oil market balances million barrels per day

Sources: EIA, September 2018 Short-Term Energy Outlook

forecast 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 world production world consumption //

  • 2
  • 1

1 2 implied stock build implied stock draw

slide-12
SLIDE 12

Most forecasted global oil supply growth is expected to come from North America

  • Dr. Linda Capuano, KBH Center - Austin, TX

September 27, 2018 12

Annual change in liquid fuels production million barrels per day

Sources: EIA, September 2018 Short-Term Energy Outlook

0.4 0.6 2.0 2.0

  • 1.0
  • 0.5

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 2016 2017 2018 2019 forecast world net change non-OPEC Eurasia North America Latin America

  • ther non-OPEC

OPEC countries

slide-13
SLIDE 13

NGPLs and crude oil drive U.S. production growth, with much

  • f this growth from the Permian
  • Dr. Linda Capuano, KBH Center - Austin, TX

September 27, 2018 13

Annual change in U.S. liquid fuels production million barrels per day

Sources: EIA, September 2018 Short-Term Energy Outlook

  • 0.4

0.8 1.9 1.3

  • 1.0
  • 0.5

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 2016 2017 2018 2019 ethanol and biodiesel natural gas plant liquids crude oil net change forecast

slide-14
SLIDE 14

Low OPEC spare capacity combined with lower inventory levels could contribute to price volatility

  • Dr. Linda Capuano, KBH Center - Austin, TX

September 27, 2018 14

OPEC spare crude oil production capacity (annual average) million barrels per day

Sources: EIA, September 2018 Short-Term Energy Outlook

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 forecast 2008-17 average

slide-15
SLIDE 15

Non-OECD nations are projected to account for 64% of the 739 quadrillion Btu global energy consumption by 2040

15

266 473 100 200 300 400 500 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Non-OECD OECD IEO2018 Reference case world energy consumption quadrillion Btu

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2018

  • Dr. Linda Capuano, KBH Center - Austin, TX

September 27, 2018

Projection History

slide-16
SLIDE 16

In the forecast, China, India, and the United States provide about two-thirds of global liquid fuels consumption growth

  • Dr. Linda Capuano, KBH Center - Austin, TX

September 27, 2018 16

Annual change in liquid fuels consumption million barrels per day

Sources: EIA, September 2018 Short-Term Energy Outlook

1.55 1.53 1.58 1.47 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2016 2017 2018 2019 forecast world

  • ther non-OECD

Middle East India China

  • ther OECD

United States

slide-17
SLIDE 17

Many non-OECD countries are projected to lead global economic growth

  • Dr. Linda Capuano, KBH Center - Austin, TX

September 27, 2018 17

1.7% 0.4% 1.5% 1.6% 2.0% 2.1% 2.3% 2.4% 0% 2% 4% 6% Total OECD Japan OECD Europe Canada South Korea United States Mexico/Chile Australia/New Zealand 4.1% 1.4% 1.6% 2.4% 2.5% 3.1% 3.8% 4.2% 4.5% 6.0% 0% 2% 4% 6% Total Non-OECD Russia Brazil Other Americas Other… Middle East Africa Other Asia China India

IEO2018 Reference case average annual percent change in real GDP by region, 2015–40

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2018

OECD Non-OECD

slide-18
SLIDE 18

China’s GDP and energy consumption growth have slowed in recent years

  • Dr. Linda Capuano, KBH Center - Austin, TX

September 27, 2018 18

Chinese GDP and energy consumption annual growth rate, five-year moving average

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2018

0% 5% 10% 15% 1983 1991 1999 2007 2015 China GDP China total primary energy consumption

slide-19
SLIDE 19

Per capita income and energy consumption continue to lag other major economies

  • Dr. Linda Capuano, KBH Center - Austin, TX

September 27, 2018 19

IEO2018 Reference case energy consumption per capita million Btu per person

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2018

China India Russia South Korea United States 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000

GDP per capita 2010 U.S. dollars per person

Africa 2000---------2015---------2040 IEO2018 Reference case projection

slide-20
SLIDE 20

2018 International Energy Outlook - Key takeaways

  • Dr. Linda Capuano, KBH Center - Austin, TX

September 27, 2018 20

  • Energy consumption in the non-OECD countries began to exceed OECD

consumption in 2007 and is projected to reach nearly two-thirds of the 739 quadrillion Btu global energy consumption in 2040

  • The world’s energy consumption through 2040 increases, on average, for all fuels in

the IEO2018 Reference case

  • The IEO2018 side cases show higher economic growth drives increasing energy

consumption, while services or manufacturing pathways to growth modulate that consumption

  • Per capita energy consumption in India and Africa remain comparatively low despite

high economic growth in the IEO2018 side cases

  • IEO2018 side cases highlight the need to further explore the relationship between

high economic growth, relative sizes of the services and manufacturing sectors, and energy consumption

slide-21
SLIDE 21

World energy consumption increases for fuels other than coal

  • Dr. Linda Capuano, KBH Center - Austin, TX

September 27, 2018 21

229 182 161 38 129 50 100 150 200 250 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Projection History

petroleum and other coal natural gas renewables nuclear IEO2018 Reference case world energy consumption by energy source quadrillion Btu

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2018

slide-22
SLIDE 22

AEO2018 Highlights

  • Dr. Linda Capuano, KBH Center - Austin, TX

September 27, 2018 22

  • U.S. net energy exports occur over the projection period to 2050 in most cases

– U.S. becomes a net energy exporter by 2022 in Reference Case – Strong domestic production and relatively flat demand

  • Increased energy efficiency offsets growth in energy demand

– Energy consumption grows about 0.4%/year on average in the Reference case – Gross Domestic Product is expected to average 2.0% annual growth to 2050 in the Reference case

  • U.S. liquids and natural gas production continues to grow through 2042 and 2050,

respectively

– Result of further tight and shale resources development, despite relatively low prices

  • Most new electricity generation capacity will be natural gas/renewables after 2022

(Reference case)

– Result of low natural gas prices, declining renewables technology costs and supportive policies

slide-23
SLIDE 23

The United States becomes a net energy exporter in most cases

  • Dr. Linda Capuano, KBH Center - Austin, TX

September 27, 2018 23

  • 40
  • 30
  • 20
  • 10

10 20 30 40 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2017 history projections net imports net exports

Low Oil and Gas Resource/Technology Low Oil Price Reference case High Oil Price High Oil and Gas Resource/Technology

Net energy trade quadrillion British thermal units

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2018

slide-24
SLIDE 24

The United States becomes a net petroleum exporter in most cases

  • Dr. Linda Capuano, KBH Center - Austin, TX

September 27, 2018 24

Petroleum net imports as a percentage of product supplied percent

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2018

  • 60
  • 40
  • 20

20 40 60 80 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2017 history projections

Low Oil Price Low Oil and Gas Resource/Technology Reference High Oil Price High Oil and Gas Resource/Technology

net imports net exports

slide-25
SLIDE 25

EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2018: U.S. energy consumption and production sees significant changes through 2050 under current laws and policies

  • Dr. Linda Capuano, KBH Center - Austin, TX

September 27, 2018 25 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2017 history projections petroleum & other liquids natural gas coal

  • ther renewable energy

hydro liquid biofuels nuclear 5 10 15

20 25 30 35 40 45 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

natural gas crude oil and lease condensate coal

  • ther renewable energy

natural gas plant liquids hydro 2017

history projections

nuclear Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2018 Energy Consumption (Reference case) quadrillion British thermal units Energy Production (Reference case) quadrillion British thermal units

slide-26
SLIDE 26

The fuel sector mix of energy consumption changes over the projected period in the Reference case

  • Dr. Linda Capuano, KBH Center - Austin, TX

September 27, 2018 26 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2017 history projections Energy Consumption by source (Reference case) quadrillion British thermal units petroleum and other liquids natural gas coal nuclear hydro

  • ther renewable energy

liquid biofuels 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 electric power industrial transportation residential commercial Consumption by sector (Reference case) quadrillion British thermal units 2017 history projections Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2018

slide-27
SLIDE 27

Transportation demonstrates the impact of energy efficiency on consumption

  • Dr. Linda Capuano, KBH Center - Austin, TX

September 27, 2018 27 5 10 15 20 25 30 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2017 history projections light-duty vehicles medium and heavy duty commercial light trucks rail air marine

  • ther

5 10 15 20 25 30 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2017 history projections motor gasoline distillate fuel oil jet fuel electricity

  • ther

Transportation sector energy consumption by fuel type quadrillion British thermal units Energy consumption by travel mode – Reference case quadrillion British thermal units Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2018

slide-28
SLIDE 28

Light-duty vehicle fuel economy improves with increasing sales of more fuel-efficient cars, while electrified powertrains gain market share in the Reference case

  • Dr. Linda Capuano, KBH Center - Austin, TX

September 27, 2018 28

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2017 history projections

battery electric plug-in hybrid hybrid electric flex fuel gasoline diesel

  • ther

Light-duty vehicle sales by fuel type sales (millions)

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2018

slide-29
SLIDE 29

Residential and commercial energy consumption grows slowly through 2050

  • Dr. Linda Capuano, KBH Center - Austin, TX

September 27, 2018 29 1 2 3 4 5 6 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2017 history projections 1 2 3 4 5 6 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2017 history projections Commercial sector delivered energy consumption quadrillion British thermal units Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2018 electricity natural gas petroleum and other liquids

  • ther

Residential sector delivered energy consumption quadrillion British thermal units

slide-30
SLIDE 30

Increased efficiency contributes to slowing the growth of electricity use in buildings sector

  • Dr. Linda Capuano, KBH Center - Austin, TX

September 27, 2018 30 1 2 3 4

  • ther uses

cooling water heating lighting fridges & freezers heating TVs and PCs clothes & dishwashing cooking 2017 2050 1 2 3 4 5 6

  • ther uses
  • comp. & office equip.

refrigeration ventilation cooling lighting heating cooking water heating 2017 2050 Use of purchased electricity per square foot of commercial floorspace thousand kilowatthours per thousand square feet Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2018 Use of purchased electricity per household thousand kilowatthours per household

slide-31
SLIDE 31

Change in electricity generation fuel mix is reflected in shifting capacity additions and retirements

  • Dr. Linda Capuano, KBH Center - Austin, TX

September 27, 2018 31

  • 30
  • 20
  • 10

10 20 30 40 50 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2017 history projections

solar wind

  • il and

gas nuclear

  • ther

coal

additions retirements Annual electricity generating capacity additions and retirements (Reference case) gigawatts

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2018

slide-32
SLIDE 32

U.S. energy consumption and production sees significant changes through 2050 under current laws and policies

  • Dr. Linda Capuano, KBH Center - Austin, TX

September 27, 2018 32 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2017 history projections petroleum & other liquids natural gas coal

  • ther renewable energy

nuclear hydro liquid biofuels 5 10 15 20 25

30 35 40 45 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

natural gas crude oil and lease condensate coal

  • ther renewable energy

natural gas plant liquids hydro 2017 history projections nuclear

Energy Consumption (Reference case) quadrillion British thermal units Energy Production (Reference case) quadrillion British thermal units Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2018

slide-33
SLIDE 33

For more information

  • Dr. Linda Capuano, KBH Center - Austin, TX

September 27, 2018 33

U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy