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What is effective altruism?
Effective altruism means doing the most good one can.
- Using evidence
- Using the best available analysis
- Valuing everyone equally
Effective altruism and policy Thursday 25 th February 2016 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Effective altruism and policy Thursday 25 th February 2016 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Effective altruism and policy Thursday 25 th February 2016 16:00-17:00 What is effective altruism? Effective altruism means doing the most good one can. Using evidence Using the best available analysis Valuing everyone equally The
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The Centre for Effective Altruism was founded in 2012 in Oxford
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Effective altruism in charity
Quality Time 100% 70 years
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What does a QALY cost?
Treatment of Kaposi’s Sarcoma Antiretroviral therapy Source: Disease Control Priorities Project 3
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What does a QALY cost?
Treatment of Kaposi’s Sarcoma Antiretroviral therapy
£20,000 / QALY barrier
Source: Disease Control Priorities Project 3
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What does a QALY cost?
Treatment of Kaposi’s Sarcoma Antiretroviral therapy Source: Disease Control Priorities Project 3
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What does a QALY cost?
Treatment of Kaposi’s Sarcoma Antiretroviral therapy Prevention of transmission during pregnancy Source: Disease Control Priorities Project 3
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What does a QALY cost?
Treatment of Kaposi’s Sarcoma Antiretroviral therapy Prevention of transmission during pregnancy Source: Disease Control Priorities Project 3
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What does a QALY cost?
Treatment of Kaposi’s Sarcoma Antiretroviral therapy Distribution of condoms Prevention of transmission during pregnancy Source: Disease Control Priorities Project 3
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What does a QALY cost?
Treatment of Kaposi’s Sarcoma Antiretroviral therapy Distribution of condoms Prevention of transmission during pregnancy Source: Disease Control Priorities Project 3
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What does a QALY cost?
Treatment of Kaposi’s Sarcoma Antiretroviral therapy Distribution of condoms Prevention of transmission during pregnancy Education for high-risk groups Source: Disease Control Priorities Project 3
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What does a QALY cost?
Treatment of Kaposi’s Sarcoma Antiretroviral therapy Distribution of condoms Prevention of transmission during pregnancy Education for high-risk groups Source: Disease Control Priorities Project 3
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What does a QALY cost?
Treatment of Kaposi’s Sarcoma Antiretroviral therapy Distribution of condoms Prevention of transmission during pregnancy Education for high-risk groups Treatment for parasitic infections Source: Disease Control Priorities Project 3
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What can we learn from this?
- International health interventions
are a bargain
- Intervention choice matters more
than donation size
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Effective altruism in charity
www.givingwhatwecan.org
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Effective altruism in career choice
www.80000hours.org
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Effective altruism in policy
- Avoid political deadlocks.
- Think about scale.
- Be explicit about what you choose.
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Avoid political deadlocks
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Think about scale
Source: National Risk Register for Civil Emergencies, 2012 Cabinet Office
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Be explicit about what you are choosing
Name Flavour Price/kg Calories/ 100g Apple Sweet, Tart £3.40 52 Orange Sweet, Acidic £1.50 47
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Effective altruism in policy
- Avoid political deadlocks.
- Think about scale.
- Be explicit about what you choose.
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Is it better to research treatment/cures for malaria or deliver them?
Delivery Research Direct Future/indirect Impact Rapid Distant Feedback LEDC MEDC Employment Medium High Uncertainty Compounding Economic Knowledge
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Research vs delivery: average, ex-ante
Name of paper Disease studied Cost effectiveness estimates (DALY/$1000) Donor investment choices for Global Health Malaria, HIV/AIDS, and Tuberculosis 9-83 Making Markets for Vaccines HIV/AIDS 11-59 Tuberculosis 11-33 Malaria 11-67 IAVI study HIV/AIDS 10-48 Tuberculosis Vaccines: the case for investment Tuberculosis 4-200
Source: Donor investment choices for Global Health, OHE, 2006; Making Markets for Vaccines, CGD, 2005; An Advance Market Commitment for AIDS Vaccines: Accelerating the Response from Industry, IAVI, 2006, Tuberculosis Vaccines: the case for investment, BIO Ventures for Global Health, 2006
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Research vs delivery: marginal, ex-ante
Name of paper Disease studied Cost effectiveness estimates (DALY/$1000) Estimating the cost- effectiveness of research into neglected tropical diseases Diarrhoeal diseases 125 Salmonella 71 Malaria 11 HIV/AIDS 14 Tuberculosis 22
Source: Estimating the cost-effectiveness of research into neglected tropical diseases, Global Priorities Project, 2015
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Research vs delivery – rough comparison
Source: WHO-Choice, Global Priorities Project
20 40 60 80 100 120
WHO-CHOICE highly cost-effective threshold Very best health interventions Rough research effectiveness estimate DALY/$1000
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Effective altruism in policy
- Avoid political deadlocks.
- Think about scale.
- Be explicit about what you choose.
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Other potential areas to explore
- Linking position on the NRR to availability of
funding/integrating planning.
- Creating and using a cross-departmental
- utcome/output unit cost database.
- Building research into grant distribution.
- Tying liability for public health implications
to risky biotech research.
- Making more extensive use of RCTs in public
policy.
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Backup
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How valuable is (marginal) research?
Source: Chandaria, S; Cotton-Barratt, O “On the marginal benefits of research”, forthcoming
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How valuable is (marginal) research?
Source: Cotton-Barratt, O “The Law of Logarithmic Returns”, forthcoming