Effective altruism and policy Thursday 25 th February 2016 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Effective altruism and policy Thursday 25 th February 2016 16:00-17:00

What is effective altruism? Effective altruism means doing the most good one can.  Using evidence  Using the best available analysis  Valuing everyone equally

The Centre for Effective Altruism was founded in 2012 in Oxford

Effective altruism in charity Quality 100% Time 70 years

What does a QALY cost? Treatment of Kaposi’s Sarcoma Antiretroviral therapy Source: Disease Control Priorities Project 3

What does a QALY cost? Treatment of Kaposi’s Sarcoma Antiretroviral therapy £20,000 / QALY barrier Source: Disease Control Priorities Project 3

What does a QALY cost? Treatment of Kaposi’s Sarcoma Antiretroviral therapy Source: Disease Control Priorities Project 3

What does a QALY cost? Treatment of Kaposi’s Sarcoma Antiretroviral therapy Prevention of transmission during pregnancy Source: Disease Control Priorities Project 3

What does a QALY cost? Treatment of Kaposi’s Sarcoma Antiretroviral therapy Prevention of transmission during pregnancy Source: Disease Control Priorities Project 3

What does a QALY cost? Treatment of Kaposi’s Sarcoma Antiretroviral therapy Prevention of transmission during pregnancy Distribution of condoms Source: Disease Control Priorities Project 3

What does a QALY cost? Treatment of Kaposi’s Sarcoma Antiretroviral therapy Prevention of transmission during pregnancy Distribution of condoms Source: Disease Control Priorities Project 3

What does a QALY cost? Treatment of Kaposi’s Sarcoma Antiretroviral therapy Prevention of transmission during pregnancy Distribution of condoms Education for high-risk groups Source: Disease Control Priorities Project 3

What does a QALY cost? Treatment of Kaposi’s Sarcoma Antiretroviral therapy Prevention of transmission during pregnancy Distribution of condoms Education for high-risk groups Source: Disease Control Priorities Project 3

What does a QALY cost? Treatment of Kaposi’s Sarcoma Antiretroviral therapy Prevention of transmission during pregnancy Distribution of condoms Education for high-risk groups Treatment for parasitic infections Source: Disease Control Priorities Project 3

What can we learn from this?  International health interventions are a bargain  Intervention choice matters more than donation size

Effective altruism in charity www.givingwhatwecan.org

Effective altruism in career choice www.80000hours.org

Effective altruism in policy  Avoid political deadlocks.  Think about scale.  Be explicit about what you choose.

Avoid political deadlocks

Think about scale Source: National Risk Register for Civil Emergencies, 2012 Cabinet Office

Be explicit about what you are choosing Name Flavour Price/kg Calories/ 100g Apple Sweet, £3.40 52 Tart Orange Sweet, £1.50 47 Acidic

Effective altruism in policy  Avoid political deadlocks.  Think about scale.  Be explicit about what you choose.

Is it better to research treatment/cures for malaria or deliver them? Delivery Research Impact Direct Future/indirect Feedback Rapid Distant Employment LEDC MEDC Uncertainty Medium High Compounding Economic Knowledge

Research vs delivery: average, ex-ante Name of paper Disease studied Cost effectiveness estimates (DALY/$1000) 9-83 Donor investment Malaria, HIV/AIDS, choices for Global and Tuberculosis Health 11-59 Making Markets for HIV/AIDS Vaccines 11-33 Tuberculosis 11-67 Malaria 10-48 IAVI study HIV/AIDS Tuberculosis Vaccines: Tuberculosis 4-200 the case for investment Source: Donor investment choices for Global Health, OHE, 2006; Making Markets for Vaccines, CGD, 2005; An Advance Market Commitment for AIDS Vaccines: Accelerating the Response from Industry , IAVI, 2006, T uberculosis Vaccines: the case for investment , BIO Ventures for Global Health, 2006

Research vs delivery: marginal, ex-ante Name of paper Disease studied Cost effectiveness estimates (DALY/$1000) 125 Estimating the cost- Diarrhoeal diseases effectiveness of research into neglected tropical diseases 71 Salmonella 11 Malaria 14 HIV/AIDS 22 Tuberculosis Source: Estimating the cost-effectiveness of research into neglected tropical diseases, Global Priorities Project, 2015

Research vs delivery – rough comparison WHO-CHOICE highly cost-effective threshold Very best health interventions Rough research effectiveness estimate 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 DALY/$1000 Source: WHO-Choice, Global Priorities Project

Effective altruism in policy  Avoid political deadlocks.  Think about scale.  Be explicit about what you choose.

Other potential areas to explore  Linking position on the NRR to availability of funding/integrating planning.  Creating and using a cross-departmental outcome/output unit cost database.  Building research into grant distribution.  Tying liability for public health implications to risky biotech research.  Making more extensive use of RCTs in public policy.

Backup

How valuable is (marginal) research? Source: Chandaria, S; Cotton- Barratt, O “On the marginal benefits of research”, forthcoming

How valuable is (marginal) research? Source: Cotton- Barratt, O “The Law of Logarithmic Returns”, forthcoming