EERS Committee Meeting August 3, 2020 Potential Study Draft Results - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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EERS Committee Meeting August 3, 2020 Potential Study Draft Results - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Nov 17, 2023 336 likes •695 views

EERS Committee Meeting August 3, 2020 Potential Study Draft Results Expectations: - Understanding Baseline Efficiencies - What EE Potential is Achievable and at what Cost? - What Needs more Research Draft Results: 7/31/2020 Presentation

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EERS Committee Meeting

August 3, 2020

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Potential Study Draft Results

Expectations:

  • Understanding Baseline Efficiencies
  • What EE Potential is Achievable and at what Cost?
  • What Needs more Research

Draft Results: 7/31/2020 Presentation to EM&V WG: 8/5/2020 Final Draft: 8/14/2020 Final Report: 9/14/2020 Incorporation into Planning: On-Going

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Potential Study Draft Results

Understanding Baseline Efficiencies

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Potential Study Draft Results

Understanding Baseline Efficiencies - Residential

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Potential Study Draft Results

Understanding Baseline Efficiencies - Residential

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Potential Study Draft Results

Understanding Baseline Efficiencies - Residential

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Potential Study Draft Results

Understanding Baseline Efficiencies - Residential

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Potential Study Draft Results

Understanding Baseline Efficiencies – Commercial / Industrial

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Potential Study Draft Results

What EE Potential is Achievable and at what Cost?

0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% 8.00% 9.00% $- $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 2018-2020 Plan 2021-2023 Plan Low Mid Max

Millions

Electric Plan v Potential Study

Electric Budget % of 2019 kWh sales

  • 0.50%

0.50% 1.50% 2.50% 3.50% 4.50% 5.50% 6.50% $- $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 2018-2020 Plan 2021-2023 Plan Low Mid Max

Millions

Natural Gas Plan v Potential Study

Gas Budget % of 2019 MMBtu sales

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Potential Study Draft Results

What EE Potential is Achievable and at what Cost?

0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% $- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 2018-2020 Plan 2021-2023 Plan Low Mid

Millions

Electric Plan v Potential Study

Electric Budget % of 2019 kWh sales

  • 0.50%

0.50% 1.50% 2.50% 3.50% 4.50% 5.50% $- $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 2018-2020 Plan 2021-2023 Plan Low Mid

Millions

Natural Gas Plan v Potential Study

Gas Budget % of 2019 MMBtu sales

Potential Study looks only at the cost of kWh savings for electric programs and does not account for fuel neutral costs &savings, notably does not account for 20% of budget going to income-eligible.

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Potential Study Draft Results

Covid-19 Presents Potentially Devastating Barriers

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Potential Study Draft Results

What are the Top 10 Measures for Residential Electric?

Lighting still plays an outsized role, which EM&V WG is working with Dunsky to try to refine given high saturation and LED market share of new sales. Refrigeration and electric hot water also show promise.

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Potential Study Draft Results

What are the Top 10 Measures for C&I Electric?

Lighting still plays an outsized role, which EM&V WG is working with Dunsky to try to refine given high saturation and LED market share of new sales. HVAC, VFDs, Controls, Hot Water Heating also show promise.

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Potential Study Draft Results

What are the Top 10 Measures for Resi Natural Gas?

Behavior Savings, Furnaces and Domestic Hot Water

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Potential Study Draft Results

What are the Top 10 Measures for C&I Natural Gas?

Steam Traps, Boilers and Controls, Heat Recovery all present opportunities.

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Potential Study Draft Results

What Next?

  • Review with Dunsky, refine findings, including ADR
  • Consider Doing More C&I Market Characterization

(i.e., how efficient are we already?)

  • Impact of Covid on Barriers to Participation
  • New Construction Baselines
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Break

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July 1 Draft - 2021-2023 Electric Plan

  • 3-Year 2021-23 budget

95% increase over combined 2018-2020 actual and planned budget

  • 3-Year annual kWh

savings at 4.2% of 2019 sales

  • Lifetime kWh savings

29% increase over last term

  • Lifetime MMBtu

savings 31% increase

  • ver last term
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July 1 Draft - 2021-2023 Gas Plan

  • 3-Year 2021-23 budget

43% increase over combined 2018-2020 actual and planned budget

  • 3-Year annual MMBtu

savings at 2.8% of 2019 sales

  • Lifetime MMBtu

savings 12% increase

  • ver last term
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Stakeholder Comment Response

Savings Targets

  • Strong push from majority of commenters to increase savings
  • NH Utilities are working to increase savings for September filing
  • Reviewing measures and approaches suggested in comments
  • Reviewing other areas for increases

Budgets

  • Increased savings targets likely to have a budget impact of $60 -

$80M for Electric, $4 - $8M for Natural Gas

  • 7/1 CTA is reasonable and in-line with other states, especially

given significant ramp-up needed

  • More volume beyond 7/1 Draft requires going after

customers/projects that are harder to reach

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Marketplace Risks

Uncertainty in Marketplace creates significant risk for additional savings

  • 2020 experience showing uptake for residential, with high incentive

levels

  • 2020 experience for small business mixed
  • 2020 experience showing much more caution on capital projects for

large business

  • Longer planning process for large projects means current

caution impacts 2021 as well

  • Economic trend and potential additional impacts of COVID-19 going

into 2021 are difficult to predict

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Customer Research – Luth Research, Covid-19 Impact Study

  • 79% of C&I customers (56% for residential) indicate some to a very significant

impact on their finances due to COVID-19.

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  • 56% of C&I customers (40% for residential) have concerns about paying

their bills in general due to COVID-19; 49% of C&I customers (36% for residential) have concerns about paying their utility bills.

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Customer Research

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  • Concern is more pronounced within certain C&I segments, such as within

Food Service/Restaurants, Healthcare, Retail/Lodging and Manufacturing.

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Customer Research

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  • The COVID-19 outbreak has made 1 in 3 residential customers and 15% of

C&I customers less likely to install EE upgrades or participate in an energy evaluation/audit.

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Customer Research

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  • 21% of all residential and 10% of all C&I customers say they will still have

concerns with participating in EE regardless of special safety precautions and protocols implemented.

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Customer Research

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Stakeholder Comment Response

To Facilitate a Plan that includes increased savings of 33%(gas) - 46% (electric) over the current term, and 7% - 20% over July 1 Draft, during a pandemic, NH Utilities need Stakeholder Support for:

  • True 3-year planning period
  • Mid-Term Modification triggers
  • Lowering of PI threshold for savings and benefits to the previous

level of 65%

  • Significant Marketing through Proven Approaches (per July 1 Plan)
  • Predictable phase out of lighting (per July 1 Plan)
  • Higher SBC and LDAC rates than the July 1 draft
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Stakeholder Comment Response

Suggested areas for additional savings

  • Electric Heat to Heat Pump conversions
  • Adding. Determining savings, incentive level and potential

quantities

  • Additional Heat Pumps
  • Significant increases already built in, but looking at more
  • pportunity
  • HP water Heaters
  • Expanding point of sale/instant rebate for customers to spur

increased uptake

  • Behavior Program
  • Unitil and Liberty – reviewing measure life approach
  • Eversource - Customer Energy Insights marketing approach leads

to additional savings from other measures

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Stakeholder Comment Response

Suggested areas for additional savings

  • Retail Products Platform
  • Determining whether RPP may lead to more savings
  • More non-lighting measures for Small Business
  • Possibly more food service and HVAC
  • Large Business - already do significant volume of snow-guns
  • Codes and Standards
  • Adding a codes and standards effort to Plan
  • Included within E* Homes program and Large & Small

Business New Construction programs

  • Developing a framework to achieve savings from Code

Compliance by Year 3

  • Additional increases beyond these specific items, mostly in C&I,

needed to get to higher targets

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Stakeholder Comment Response

Do not plan to amortize costs

  • Pancaking effect increases customer cost over time
  • Would create a long-term financing need, not short-term debt
  • Potential for increases to other costs due to detrimental impacts on utility

credit metrics

Do not plan to shift to MMBTu Based Goals

  • Interested in the approach, see suggestion in Utility Presentation from

December 9, 2019 EERS Committee Meeting

  • EERS Committee discussed and did not go in this direction
  • NHPUC Order 26,322: PUC would consider a pilot and/or study of EO if

proposed to test/verify whether to embrace EO at program level.

Not planning 25% for Income Eligible

  • Significant investment already included
  • Additional shifts would require a re-thinking of the broader goals that NH

has for energy efficiency and SBC funds

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Stakeholder Comment Response

Multi-Family

  • HEA – full availability and single point of contact for customer
  • HPwES – will add fuel neutral weatherization for 5+ units
  • HPwES contractors can serve as single point of contact for

customer

Energy Optimization Pilot

  • Will move to a program offering through an MTM if pilot goes well

and if evaluation timeline works

Financing

  • Eversource to add capital to allow for robust small business on-bill
  • SBC funded, also exploring leverage of bank capital for on-bill
  • Eversource initiating 3-state RFP for lending partners to work with
  • n interest-buy-down for C&I loans that do not fit in on-bill offering
  • Liberty, NHEC, Unitil also continuing to offer robust on-bill

Funding

  • Will continue to review and pursue additional grant funding
  • pportunities
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Demand Response

  • Productive discussion on 7/29
  • Plan to incorporate an Active kW metric into PI formula for Eversource,

Liberty, Unitil

  • Incentive Weight from current formula to shift a portion from passive demand

metrics to include new Active demand metric. 32

Stakeholder Comment Response

PI No. Component Title Description Incentive Weight Minimum Threshold Maximum PI Level Verification 1 Lifetime kWh Savings Actual/Planned Lifetime kWh Savings 35% 75% 125% Annual PI Filing w/Commission 2 Annual kWh Savings Actual/Planned Annual kWh Savings 10% 75% 125% Annual PI Filing w/Commission 3 Summer Peak Demand Savings Actual/Planned ISO-NE System-wide Summer Peak Passive kW Savings 9% 65% 125% Annual PI Filing w/Commission 4 Winter Peak Demand Savings Actual/Planned ISO-NE System-wide Summer Peak Passive kW Savings 6% 65% 125% Annual PI Filing w/Commission 5 Active Demand Savings Actual/Planned Active kW Savings 5% 65% 125% Annual PI Filing w/Commission 6 Value Actual/Planned Net Benefits 35% 75% 125% Annual PI Filing w/Commission Total 100%

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Numerous other comments not specifically addressed here are also being reviewed

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Additional Comments

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Discussion