EEI Financial Conference
November 2019
EEI Financial Conference November 2019 Contact Information and Safe - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
EEI Financial Conference November 2019 Contact Information and Safe Harbor Statement Investor Relations Contact Information Lisa Goodman Director, Investor Relations and Shareholder Services U.S. 1-505-241-2160 Lisa.Goodman@pnmresources.com
November 2019
2 Investor Relations Contact Information Lisa Goodman Director, Investor Relations and Shareholder Services U.S. 1-505-241-2160 Lisa.Goodman@pnmresources.com Safe Harbor Statement
Statements made in this presentation for PNM Resources, Inc. (“PNMR”), Public Service Company of New Mexico (“PNM”), or Texas-New Mexico Power Company (“TNMP”) (collectively, the “Company”) that relate to future events or expectations, projections, estimates, intentions, goals, targets, and strategies are made pursuant to the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act
PNM, and TNMP assume no obligation to update this information. Because actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements, PNMR, PNM, and TNMP caution readers not to place undue reliance
many factors, which are often beyond their control, that can cause actual results to differ from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. For a discussion of risk factors and other important factors affecting forward-looking statements, please see the Company’s Form 10-K and 10-Q filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which factors are specifically incorporated by reference herein.
Non-GAAP Financial Measures
For an explanation of the non-GAAP financial measures that appear on certain slides in this presentation (ongoing earnings,
please refer to the Company’s website as follows: http://www.pnmresources.com/investors/results.cfm.
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Generation Resources and Service Territories PNM Resources is a regulated electric utility holding company focused on providing environmentally responsible, affordable and reliable electricity to customers and above industry average earnings and dividend growth to shareholders
NYSE Ticker: PNM Market Cap: $4B
distribution lines
distribution lines
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cleaner energy portfolio
Transform to Cleaner Energy Portfolio
customer experience
products and services
Meet Customer Expectations
industry-average
Provide Earnings and Dividend Growth
$255 $275 $306 $322 $345
$245 $337 $270 $342 $348 $125 $176 $173 $182 $202 $128 $99 $94 $82 $77 $68
$60 $53
$109 $268 $48 $177 $72
$37 $27 $22 $27 $21 $21 $25
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
(in millions)
TNMP PNM T&D PV Lease Purchases/Other Replacement Power PNM Existing Generation PNM Renewable Additions PNM Transmission Expansion SJGS Replacement Power 50% NMRD Renewable Additions Business Technology Services/General Services Depreciation
$641 $771 $991 $818 $694
$3.9B investment plan results in 9.6% rate base growth $317M increase in TNMP investments
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(1) Depreciation does not include amounts associated with NMRD (2) Western Spirit acquisition of $285M reflects assumed purchase price of $360M, net of $75M customer funding (3) For Palo Verde leases that expire in 2023, capex assumes either the purchase of the leases or replacement of the power through new resources (1) (2)
Targeted 2018-2023 Rate Base CAGR (2018 base): Total 9.6% / PNM 6.6% / TNMP 17.3%
(3)
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This table is not intended to represent a forward-looking projection of 2020 - 2023 earnings guidance. Refer to Slide 31 for additional details and disclosures.
Earnings Growth Target 5-6%; reflects updated investment plan
(1) Assumes mid-year implementation (2) Optimization of timing/size not definitive, total equity need of $590M focused on forward block sale and/or mandatory convertibles Note: 2018-2023 CAGR measured from 2018 Ongoing EPS of $2.00
Allowed Return / Equity Ratio
2019 Ongoing Earnings Guidance Midpoint 2020 Earnings Potential 2021 Earnings Potential 2022 Earnings Potential 2023 Earnings Potential
Avg Rate Base Return EPS Avg Rate Base EPS
Avg Rate Base EPS Avg Rate Base EPS Avg Rate Base EPS PNM Retail
9.575% / 50% $2.4 B 8.9% $1.37 $2.4 B $1.44 $2.5 B $1.52 $2.4 B $1.48 $2.4 B $1.48
San Juan Replacement(1)
9.575% / 50% $150 M $0.09 $280 M $0.17
PNM Renewables
9.575% / 50% $115 M 9.575% $0.07 $150 M $0.09 $145 M $0.09 $140 M $0.08 $130 M $0.07
PNM FERC
10% / ~50% $275 M 6.9% $0.12 $330 M $0.15-$0.20 $530 M $0.26-$0.30 $740 M $0.37-$0.42 $780 M $0.39-$0.44
Items not in Rates
$0.04 ($0.04)-($0.02) ($0.03)-($0.01) ($0.03)-($0.01) ($0.03)-($0.01)
Total PNM
$2.7 B $1.60 $2.9 B $1.64-$1.71 $3.2 B $1.84-$1.90 $3.5 B $1.99-$2.06 $3.6 B $2.08-$2.15
TNMP
9.65% / 45% $1.1 B 9.65% $0.67 $1.3 B $0.73 $1.5 B $0.84 $1.6 B $0.89 $1.9 B $1.02
Corporate/Other
($0.19) ($0.21)-($0.19) ($0.21)-($0.19) ($0.19) - ($0.17) ($0.23)-($0.21)
Equity Financing Plans(2)
($0.01)-$0.00 ($0.10)-($0.09) ($0.20) - ($0.19) ($0.24)-($0.23) Total PNM Resources $3.8 B $2.08 $4.2 B $2.15 - $2.25 $4.7 B $2.37 - $2.46 $5.1 B $2.49 - $2.59 $5.6 B $2.63 - $2.73
8 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 $1.49 $1.64 $1.65 $1.94 $2.00 $2.08 $2.20 $2.42 $2.54 5-6% Target: $2.55-$2.68 Actual Ongoing EPS Midpoint Guidance / Earnings Potential $2.68
$0.74 Dec ‘13 $0.80 Dec ‘14 $0.88 Dec’ 15 $0.97 Dec ‘16 $1.06 Dec ‘17 $1.16 Dec ‘18 $1.22- $1.23 $1.28- $1.30 $1.34- $1.38 $1.41- $1.46 8% 10% 10% 9% 9%
55-56% payout 53-54% payout 53-54% payout 53-55% payout
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Indicative annual dividend rate
while targeting the middle of a 50% - 60% payout ratio range
Consistent Delivery of Dividend Growth At or Above Industry Average
Expect future dividend growth to mirror earnings growth (approximately 5-6%)
Payout based upon midpoint earnings potential
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and/or mandatory convertibles are projected to fund 2020 - 2023 expenditures
~$800 million and $361 million securitization bonds
Maintain appropriate credit metrics Remain a solid investment grade rated company Target regulatory capital structures at PNM and TNMP
Moody’s Rating/Outlook S&P Rating/Outlook PNM Resources Baa3(1) / Stable BBB+(1) / Negative PNM Baa2(2) / Stable BBB+(2) / Negative TNMP A1(3) / Stable A(3) / Negative PNM Resources FFO-to-Debt is maintained well within Moody’s Baa investment grade target range of 13% to 22%
(1) Issuer rating (2) Senior unsecured rating (3) Senior secured rating
$350 $306 $57 $1,003
$35
$658
$140
$300 2020 2021 2022 2023 and Beyond
Long-term Debt Maturities
(in millions)
PNM TNMP Corporate
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Nuclear 30%
Senate Bill 489 (Energy Transition Act): passed in 2019 legislative session and signed by New Mexico Governor Lujan Grisham; effective June 14, 2019
reduces customer bills
workers and the communities impacted by retirement of coal-fired generating facilities
50% Renewables
80% Renewables
40% Renewables
100% Carbon-Free 2045 2040
2030 2025
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reduced CO₂ emissions at this plant by 54% below 2005 levels
end of 2031
energy by 2045
983 762 200 2005 2018 2023 2031
Reduction of MW Coal Capacity
22% reduction 80% reduction 100% coal free
Read more in our Climate Change Report at http://www.pnmresources.com/about-us/sustainability-portal.aspx
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abandonment of San Juan coal plant after participation agreement and coal supply contracts end June 30, 2022
investment in San Juan, proceeds available to fund replacement power
and reclamation costs
severance costs
development funds
Total $361M securitization
scenario balances environment, cost and reliability
62% reduction in carbon emissions
storage capacity responsibly integrates new technology
peaking plants ensure reliability during energy transition, provides San Juan property tax base Total $298M investment
Timing
securitization expected by April 2020; decision on replacement power expected by October 2020
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Intervenor(s) Briefs Abandonment/ Securitization (19-00018-UT) Replacement Power (19-00195-UT) Comments
Board of County Commissioners for the County of San Juan and the City of Farmington
Contingent upon provision of funds to the San Juan community Central Consolidated School District
Contingent upon provision of funds to the San Juan community Citizens for Fair Rates and the Environment
Commission should disregard provisions that conflict with the New Mexico Constitution Coalition for Clean Affordable Energy
IBEW/IUOE
Interwest Energy Alliance
New Energy Economy
X X
Cannot apply; ETA is unconstitutional NMPRC Staff
X X
Cannot be applied to pending case San Juan Legislative Delegation
Contingent upon provision of funds to the San Juan community Sierra Club
Southwest Generation Operating Company
No position on ETA applicability to abandonment/securitization Western Resource Advocates
Parties that did not file a brief on ETA applicability: ABCWUA, Attorney General, Bernalillo County, City of Albuquerque, County of Los Alamos, Diné Citizens Against Ruining Our Environment, Greg Sonnenfeld, M-S-R Public Power Agency, Navajo Power, NM AREA, Prosperity Works, REIA, San Juan Citizen Alliance, and Westmoreland Coal, Inc.
PNM Owned Resources Third Party Resources __________________ Total 350 MW ________________ Total 410 MW
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and third-party providers
does not exceed 5% of peak load and the capacity at each location is limited to 40 MW 280 MW Gas Peaking Units at San Juan $191M investment in-service June 2022 40 MW Storage $50M investment in-service June 2022 30 MW Storage $37M investment in-service June 2022 300 MW Solar PPA + 40 MW Storage ESA $20M transmission investment begins June 2022 50 MW Solar PPA + 20 MW Storage ESA begins Jan 2022
Note: All potential replacement power scenarios incorporated 140 MW wind energy PPA included in June 3, 2019 RPS Filing
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2018 2020 2025 2035
137 333 721 1,137 356 521 681 956
Growing Solar and Wind Capacity
Based on Recommended San Juan Replacement Scenario (MW)
Solar Wind
Integration of renewable generation requires T&D investment and addition of supporting backup capacity
493 854 1,402 1,955
Note: Resources above and beyond the resources purchased to support the Facebook data center in New Mexico
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Source: American Wind Energy Association, Oct. 2019
New Mexico ranks:
New Mexico added wind capacity at a higher growth rate than any other state in 2017 and currently has projects under construction or in advanced development that will more than double current installed capacity
development
Wind Solar
Source: NREL
New Mexico has abundant solar and wind resources Third-party development increases demand for transmission capacity
Source: WINDExchange.energy.gov, Q3 2019
in US wind capacity potential in US concentrating solar power technical potential
Source: NREL, July 2012
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Regulated Retail Energy Sales and Customers Economic indicators continue to be positive Weather and Load improved Q3 EPS by $0.05
Commercial energy efficiency impacts
PNM
Q3 2019 vs. Q3 2018 YTD 2019 vs. YTD 2018 2019E Total PNM Retail Load(1) 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% – 1.0% PNM Avg. Customers 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% – 1.0%
(1) Weather normalized, excludes Economy customers
20-yr Avg 20-yr Avg 20-yr Avg 20-yr Avg 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 Q1 Heating Degree-Days Q2 Cooling Degree-Days Q3 Cooling Degree-Days Q4 Heating Degree-Days
Weather Volatility
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District Name Term Ends Party
District 1 Cynthia Hall 2020(1) Democrat District 2 Jefferson Byrd 2022(1) Republican District 3 Valerie Espinoza, Vice-Chairman 2020 Democrat District 4 Theresa Becenti-Aguilar, Chairman 2022(1) Democrat District 5 Stephen Fischmann 2022(1) Democrat
NMPRC Districts and PNM Service Areas
(1) Eligible for re-election to a second four-year term
2019 Legislative Update – Appointed vs Elected:
include a state constitutional amendment on the ballot in the next general election (2020) to move to a 3-member, appointed Commission
requirements for Commissioners
be for a two-year term ending in 2022; the terms for Commissioners in Districts 2, 4 and 5 already expire in 2022
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Filing Action Timing Docket No.
PNM:
Western Spirit Transmission Line NMPRC approved acquisition on October 2, 2019; FERC approved acquisition on August 8, 2019 and incremental rate effective July 9, 2019 Acquisition planned for mid-2021 19-00129-UT ER19-1824-000 EC19-90-000 Consolidated Application for San Juan (Abandonment, Securitization and Replacement) PNM filed July 1, 2019; NMPRC bifurcated application on July 10, 2019 NMPRC decision on abandonment/ securitization expected by April 2020, decision on replacement power expected by October 2020 19-00018-UT 19-00195-UT Appeal of 2015 General Rate Case to New Mexico Supreme Court New Mexico Supreme Court issued opinion May 16, 2019 affirming NMPRC decision but denying the disallowance of future Palo Verde decommissioning costs; full order was remanded back to the NMPRC No statutory timeline; oral arguments
15-00261-UT S-1-SC-36115 Solar Direct Program PNM filed May 31, 2019 for approval of voluntary renewable program expected to begin March 31, 2021 NMPRC decision expected in Q1 2020 19-00158-UT 2020 Renewable Plan PNM filed June 3, 2019; hearings held October 24-25, 2019 NMPRC decision expected in Q1 2020 19-00159-UT
$68.59 $76.12 $106.17 $115.42 $137.51
$50 $100 $150
City of Seattle - (WA) Public Service Co of Colorado (CO) El Paso Electric Co (NM) El Paso Electric Co (TX) PacifiCorp (UT) Public Service Co of NM (NM) Montana-Dakota Utilities Co (MT) PacifiCorp (WY) City of Colorado Springs - (CO) NorthWestern Energy LLC - (MT) Avista Corp (ID) Avista Corp (WA) PacifiCorp (ID) Idaho Power Co (ID) Southern California Edison Co (CA) Sacramento Municipal Util Dist (CA) City of Tacoma - (WA) San Diego Gas & Electric Co (CA) Southwestern Public Service Co (NM) Montana-Dakota Utilities Co (WY) Tucson Electric Power Co (AZ) Portland General Electric Co (OR) PacifiCorp (OR) Regional Average Bill Black Hills Power, Inc. d/b/a (WY) PacifiCorp (WA) Pacific Gas & Electric Co. (CA) Nevada Power Co (NV) PacifiCorp (CA) US Average Bill City of San Antonio - (TX) Southwestern Electric Power Co (TX) Modesto Irrigation District (CA) Entergy Texas Inc. (TX) Salt River Project (AZ) Imperial Irrigation District (CA) LADWP (CA) Arizona Public Service Co (AZ)
Comparison of Average Residential Bills(1)
Western Region Average Bills by Utility
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(1)Based on U.S. Energy Information Administration's Residential Rate increases through June 2019
Customer bill impacts of increased investments are mitigated by:
‘
savings to customers
per-customer cost of new investments
Market and renewable investments result in lower costs for fuel
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Regulated Retail Energy Sales and Customers
largest energy-consuming state in the nation(1)
~20% over next 10 years(2), extensive regional studies call for increased transmission infrastructure to support reliability and growth, particularly in West Texas TNMP Demand
(1) Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA) (2) Source: ERCOT 2019-2028 forecast
TNMP Investment Plan by Region
West Texas ~44% North/Central TX ~31% Gulf Coast ~25%
(1) Changes in load do not have a significant impacts on quarterly EPS; however, demand-based load growth is an indicator of increased infrastructure needs (2) Commercial and Industrial per-kw monthly peak billings; excludes retail Transmission customers
TNMP
Q3 2019 vs. Q3 2018 YTD 2019 vs. YTD 2018 2019E Demand-Based Load(2) 5.4% 4.3% 4.0% – 5.0% TNMP Avg. End Users 1.4% 1.5% 1.5% – 2.0%
Texas growth continues to lead nation Weather and Load improved Q3 EPS by $0.02
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Commissioners are appointed by the Governor of Texas and confirmed by the Senate.
Name Term Began Term Ends Party
DeAnn Walker (Chair)
Republican Arthur D’Andrea
Republican Shelly Botkin June 2018
Republican
PUCT Commissioners
Filing Action Timing Docket No.
General Rate Review Settlement approved December 2, 2018 Rates implemented January 2019 48401 TCOS Filing Filed January 25, 2019 Rates implemented March 2019 49143 TCOS Filing Filed July 23, 2019 Rates implemented September 2019 49785
TNMP Regulatory Agenda
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Key Components of Approved Settlement Annual revenue increase $10.0M ROE (prior authorized 10.125%) 9.65% Capital structure (prior authorized 45% equity) 45% Equity Cost of debt 6.4% Increase to rate base $73M Return of excess deferred federal income taxes $11.0M
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$- $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 Oncor Centerpoint TNMP AEP North AEP Central Residential Total Wires Charge for 1,000 kWh
Current rate filing pending Current rate filing pending Current rate filing pending Current rate filing pending
Source: TDU tariffs for retail delivery service effective September 1, 2019 and PUCT Filings Interchange.
1Rates effective January 2019
New Rates1
Rates expected to be comparable to other IOUs after pending rate filings
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PNM $1.59 – $1.62 TNMP $0.66 – $0.68 Corp/Other ($0.20) – ($0.19)
2019 Earnings Guidance
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(1) Average rate base has been reduced by approximately $130M to represent ($0.05) of Earnings Potential for the lost equity return on Four Corners investment determined in the 2018 general
rate review. 2022 and 2023 rate base also reflects the removal of $283M undepreciated SJGS investment upon its retirement in mid-2022 to be recovered through securitization.
(2) Replacement Power includes $298M investment implemented mid-2022; $278M of generation investment and $20M of transmission investment. (3) PNM Renewables reflect assets collected through the Renewable Rate Rider. (4) PNM FERC in 2021-2023 reflects a return of 8%-9% to account for Western Spirit investment recovered through incremental rates. (5) Consists primarily of decommissioning/reclamation trust income (net of fees/taxes), AFUDC, certain incentive compensation, and the 65MW ownership of San Juan Unit 4 (prior to retirement). (6) TNMP earnings include additional recovery for Energy Efficiency, along with items excluded from rates (primarily AFUDC) and interest savings from the refinancing of existing debt. (7) Corporate/Other includes the earnings impacts associated with short and intermediate term bank debt and the 50% equity interest in NMRD. (8) Equity Financing Plans to fund capital growth reflect financing alternatives, including ATM Program or block sale of up to $290M (dilution impacts
assume $50M issued in 2020, $90M to $140M in 2021, $50M in 2022 and $50M in 2023), and $300M mandatory convertibles beginning mid-2021. This table is not intended to represent a forward-looking projection of 2020 - 2023 earnings guidance.
Allowed Return / Equity Ratio
2019 Ongoing Earnings Guidance Midpoint 2020 Earnings Potential 2021 Earnings Potential 2022 Earnings Potential 2023 Earnings Potential
Avg Rate Base Return EPS Avg Rate Base EPS
Avg Rate Base EPS Avg Rate Base EPS Avg Rate Base EPS PNM Retail(1)
9.575% / 50% $2.4 B 8.9% $1.37 $2.4 B $1.44 $2.5 B $1.52 $2.4 B $1.48 $2.4 B $1.48
San Juan Replacement(2)
9.575% / 50% $150 M $0.09 $280 M $0.17
PNM Renewables(3)
9.575% / 50% $115 M 9.575% $0.07 $150 M $0.09 $145 M $0.09 $140 M $0.08 $130 M $0.07
PNM FERC(4)
10% / ~50% $275 M 6.9% $0.12 $330 M $0.15-$0.20 $530 M $0.26-$0.30 $740 M $0.37-$0.42 $780 M $0.39-$0.44
Items not in Rates(5)
$0.04 ($0.04)-($0.02) ($0.03)-($0.01) ($0.03)-($0.01) ($0.03)-($0.01)
Total PNM
$2.7 B $1.60 $2.9 B $1.64-$1.71 $3.2 B $1.84-$1.90 $3.5 B $1.99-$2.06 $3.6 B $2.08-$2.15
TNMP(6)
9.65% / 45% $1.1 B 9.65% $0.67 $1.3 B $0.73 $1.5 B $0.84 $1.6 B $0.89 $1.9 B $1.02
Corporate/Other(7)
($0.19) ($0.21)-($0.19) ($0.21)-($0.19) ($0.19)-($0.17) ($0.23)-($0.21)
Equity Financing Plans(8)
($0.01)-$0.00 ($0.10)-($0.09) ($0.20)-($0.19) ($0.24)-($0.23)
Total PNM Resources
$3.8 B $2.08 $4.2 B $2.15 - $2.25 $4.7 B $2.37 - $2.46 $5.1 B $2.49 - $2.59 $5.6 B $2.63 - $2.73
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PNM TNMP PNMR PNM Resources Consolidated PNMR Develop- ment Corporate /Other Financing Capacity(1): (In millions) Revolving credit facilities $440.0 $75.0 $40.0 $300.0 $855.0 As of 10/25/19: Short-term debt and LOC balances $2.5 $15.4 $38.9 $84.1 $140.9 Remaining availability 437.5 59.6 1.1 215.9 714.1 Invested cash 20.5
21.4 Total Available Liquidity $458.0 $59.6 $1.1 $216.8 $735.5
(1) Excludes intercompany debt and term loans
33 Unit Total MW PNM MW PNM Ownership Other Participants/Ownership 1 340 170 50% Tucson Electric 50% (170 MW) 4 507 392 77.3% City of Farmington 8.5% (43 MW) Los Alamos County 7.2% (36.5 MW) Utah Associated Municipal Power Systems (UAMPS) 7.0% (35.5 MW) Total 847 562 Unit Total MW PNM MW PNM Ownership Other Participants/Ownership 4 770 100 13% Arizona Public Service Company 70% (539 MW) Salt River Project 10% (77 MW) Tucson Electric Power 7% (54 MW) 5 770 100 13% Arizona Public Service Company 70% (539 MW) Salt River Project 10% (77 MW) Tucson Electric Power 7% (54 MW) Total 1,540 200
San Juan Generating Station Four Corners Generating Station
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Unit 1 Owned 2.3% 30 MW Leased 7.9% 104 MW Total 10.2% 134 MW Unit 2 Owned 9.5% 124 MW Leased 0.7% 10 MW Total 10.2% 134 MW Unit 3 Owned 10.2% 134 MW Leased 0% 0 MW Total 10.2% 134 MW
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The following slides come to life with Augmented Reality (AR) powered by RealityX2
This new technology runs in your smartphone or tablet and overlays a digital/virtual world on top of your physical reality. Experience AR for yourself by visiting the App store to download and open the RealityX2 app, then pointing your device at the images contained in these slides to learn more about battery storage and plans for the integration of battery storage at PNM.
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and nuclear plants were constructed to meet a constantly growing energy demand with 24/7 reliability
solution for an increasing amount of intermittent renewables resources without sacrificing reliability
Utilize the app to visualize how energy flows under the “old” and “new” ways
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Utilize the app to see inside each battery and hear about each technology
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Utilize the app to tour the PNM Prosperity Project and hear our plans and considerations for future battery integration