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Ecosystems, natural resources and Tragedy of the Commons Jrgen Scheffran Institute of Geography, KlimaCampus, Universitt Hamburg Climate & Society: Lecture 3, November 13, 2014 p. 1 13.11. Ecosystems, natural resources and Tragedy of

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Ecosystems, natural resources and Tragedy of the Commons

Jürgen Scheffran

Institute of Geography, KlimaCampus, Universität Hamburg

Climate & Society: Lecture 3, November 13, 2014

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13.11. Ecosystems, natural resources and Tragedy

  • f the Commons

Question: How are natural resources affected by human society and climate change and what are the problems of resource over exploitation? Selected readings:

  • Andrew Millington, Mark Blumler, Udo Schickhoff (2011) The SAGE Handbook of

Biogeography, SAGE Publications

  • Worldwatch: State of the World (annual) and Vital Signs (Annual),

http://www.worldwatch.org

  • Global Environment Outlook (GEO-5), United Nations Environment Program, 2012.

Background material:

  • Gebhardt, H., Glaser, R., Radtke, U., Reuber, P. (eds.) (2012) Geographie -

Physische Geographie und Humangeographie, Berlin: Springer.

  • Goudie, Andrew (2007) Physische Geographie, Springer Spektrum.
  • Garrett Hardin, The Tragedy of the Commons, Science, Vol. 162, No. 3859

(December 13, 1968), pp. 1243-1248.

  • Elinor Ostrom, Joanna Burger, Christopher B. Field, Richard B. Norgaard, and David

Policansky, Revisiting the Commons: Local Lessons, Global Challenges, Science 9 April 1999 284: 278-282.

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Selected literature

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adaptive capacity

Climate system

temperature precipitation extreme weather ice cover

  • cean currents

sea level

Natural resources

water land ecosystems biodiversity marine resources non-renewables

Human security

water food energy health income livelihood

Societal stability

political events migration violence conflict cooperation institutions mitigation risk sustainability stress impact response framing adaptation resilience development

Causal loops and feedbacks in climate-society interaction

Source: Scheffran et al, Climate Change and Violent Conflict, Science, 18 May 2012

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What are natural resources?

Natural processes, materials and systems that can be used to serve human needs, values and goals. Anthropogenic interpretation of natural resources? Inherent value of nature? Examples of natural resources:

  • Energy
  • Water
  • Food
  • Organisms
  • Biodiversity
  • Minerals
  • Other raw materials
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Environmental tolerance and viability

Viability / Productivity V

Tolerance T

V

Environmental change Optimum V = 0 X- X+ Environmental Factor X Vulnerable area

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Problems of human-environment interaction

  • Environmental degradation and depletion of natural

resources

  • Resource scarcity, food insecurity and energy poverty
  • Global warming and climate change
  • Tragedy of the Commons
  • Individual vs. collective rationality
  • Resource conflicts

 Implications for society?

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Tragedy of the commons

Tragedy of the commons: depletion of a shared resource by multiple individuals, acting independently and rationally according to their self- interest, leading to collective undesirable outcomes because depleting the common resource is contrary to the group's long-term interests. Thomas Malthus (1789) An Essay on the Principle of Population: expected population break down due to famine and disease (Malthusian catastrophe). William Forster Lloyd (1833): hypothetical situation of herders sharing common land to let cows graze. Each cow gives additional benefits until overgrazing damages the common land for all. Individually rational economic decision results in collective destruction

  • f the environmental commons.

Garrett Hardin (1968) "The Tragedy of the Commons", (Science) social dilemma of human population growth, the use of the Earth's natural resources, and the welfare state Elinor Ostrom (1999): tragedy of the commons not prevalent or difficult to solve, since locals often have found cooperative solutions to the commons problem.

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The Earth-Atmosphere System

(Source: http://co2now.org/Know-the-Changing-Climate)

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Global material extraction, 1900–2005

GEO-5 (2012)

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Earth’s energy cycle

From: Rose (1986) Learning about Energy, Plenum Press, New York.

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Global solar irradiance at Earth’s surface (W/m2)

(a) December, January, February (b) June, July, August

Source: ISCCP Data Products 2006

averaged over the period 1983 to 2006

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Annual solar irradiation in EU-MENA

  • n surfaces tilted South with latitude angle in kWh/m²/year

Source: Prepared by DLR with data from ECMWF 2002 for WBGU 2003

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Gross hydropower potentials in EU-MENA

adapted from /Lehner et al. 2005

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Annual precipitation trends, 1900–2000

Source: GEO-4

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Global wind resource map

(5 km x 5 km resolution)

Source: IPCC (2011) SRREN

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Global offshore annual wave power level distribution

IPCC 2011: SRREN, based on Cornett 2008

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Surface ocean currents

showing warm (red) and cold (blue) systems

IPCC 2011 SRREN, based on UCAR 2000

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Worldwide average ocean temperature differences

(°C between 20 and 1,000 m water depth)

IPCC 2011 SRREN based on Nihous 2010

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Global primary production of biomass

SeaWiFS Project, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center and ORBIMAGE

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Map of biomass productivity

Bazilevich 1994

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Formation and composition of plant matter

Source: Kaltschmitt et al, Renewable Energy, 2007

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Plant efficiencies

Source: Sorensen

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Factors in plant growth

Solar radiation Temperature Precipitation Evaporation Soil water Growing season Degree days Leaf expansion index Photosynthesis water stress Leaf expansion Water stress Photosynthesis Dry matter Yield output

Adapted from Clifton-Brown’s MISCANMOD

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Photosynthetic rates of C3 and C4 plants

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World drylands

Note: Drylands are defined by the long-term mean of the ratio of annual precipitation to potential evapotranspiration. Drylands include hyperarid areas, while the definition of desertification relates to arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas only (excluding hyperarid), sometimes also referred to as “susceptible drylands.”Source: UNEP 1992

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Impact on biosphere and pedosphere

Multi-model mean changes in (b) frost days [days < 0°C], (d) heat waves [5 consecutive days > Ø + 5°C], (e, f) growing season [days > 5°C] (IPCC 2007)

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Direct and indirect impacts

  • f humans on

ecosystem Earth

Source: Schickhoff, based on Vitousek et al. (1997)

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Since 1950: unprecedented extent of human activities

Steffen et al. (2004)

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Alterations of the earth system as a result of the dramatic increase of human activities

Steffen et al. (2004)

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Steffen et al. (2004)

Alterations of the earth system as a result of the dramatic increase of human activities

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Latest global trends

(Vital signs 2014)

Automobile production: World auto production set yet another record in 2012, with passenger-car production rising to 66.7 million. Natural disasters: Natural disasters in 2012 climbed to 905, roughly one hundred more than the 10-year annual average, with 90 percent weather-related. Organic farming: Land farmed organically has tripled since 1999, although it still makes up less than 1 percent of total farmland. Solar and wind power: Solar power consumption increased by 58 percent, and wind power consumption increased by 18 percent in 2012. Military budgets: World military expenditures in 2012 totaled $1,740 billion, the second highest yearly amount since World War II. Fossil fuels: Coal, natural gas, and oil accounted for 87 percent of global primary energy consumption in 2012. Greenhouse gas emissions: Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production reached 9.7 gigatons of carbon in 2012 (with a ±5 percent uncertainty range). This is the highest annual total to date. Food prices: Continuing a decade-long increase, global food prices rose 2.7 percent in 2012, reaching levels not seen since the 1960s and 1970s.

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Total forest area by region

Source: GEO-4 Vital Signs 2012

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Declines in carbon in living biomass and in extent of forest

Source: FAO 2006a Source: GEO-4

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Status of terrestrial ecoregions

Note: An ecoregion is a large unit of land containing a geographically distinct assemblage

  • f species, natural communities, and environmental conditions. (Source: GEO-4)
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Projected risks due to critical climate change impacts on ecosystems

IPCC 2007

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Living Planet Index, 1970–2007 Red List Indices of species survival 1980–2010

Living Planet Index measures trends in the abundance of species for which data is available around the world.

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Biodiversity benefits to agriculture through ecosystem services

Source: GEO-4

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Coral bleaching and pH effects on coral reefs

Source: IPCC 2014, WG2

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Trends in vulnerability of the Great Barrier Reef

Temporal trend in coral cover for the whole Great Barrier Reef over the period 1985–2012 Estimated mean coral mortality per year, due to different causes for the whole Great Barrier Reef

Source: IPCC 2014, WG2, based on De'ath et al., 2012

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Industrial fishery along the world‘s coasts

Fishery in tons per km2 and year

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Exploitation status of marine fish stocks

Source: GEO-4

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Climate change risks and redistribution of fisheries

Source: IPCC 2014, WG2

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Marine mollusk and crustacean fisheries and locations of cold- and warm-water corals

Source: IPCC 2014, WG2

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Ecosystem-based adaptation (EBA) using natural capacity to buffer human systems from climate impacts

Source: IPCC 2014, WG2

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Water–energy–food nexus in the context of climate change

Source: IPCC 2014, WG2

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Alternative economic and ecological indices

Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI): measure that provides a better analysis of economic progress by subtracting out pollution and resource degradation, crime, and other economic ills while adding in unmeasured benefits like volunteer work and parenting. Ecological footprint: measure of human demand on the Earth's

  • ecosystems. It compares human

demand with planet Earth's ecological capacity to regenerate. It represents the amount of biologically productive land and sea area needed to regenerate consumed resources and to absorb the waste.

Source: Vital Signs 2009

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Human Development Index (HDI): combines normalized measures of life expectancy, educational attainment, and standard of living (logarithm

  • f GDP per capita) for countries worldwide.
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Source: SEF 2003

Human Development Index (HDI): global comparison

Where the rich people live

Source: Le Monde diplomatique (2006)