Ecosystems, natural resources and Tragedy of the Commons Jürgen Scheffran Institute of Geography, KlimaCampus, Universität Hamburg Climate & Society: Lecture 3, November 13, 2014 p. 1
13.11. Ecosystems, natural resources and Tragedy of the Commons Question: How are natural resources affected by human society and climate change and what are the problems of resource over exploitation? Selected readings: Andrew Millington, Mark Blumler, Udo Schickhoff (2011) The SAGE Handbook of Biogeography, SAGE Publications Worldwatch: State of the World (annual) and Vital Signs (Annual), http://www.worldwatch.org Global Environment Outlook (GEO-5), United Nations Environment Program, 2012. Background material: Gebhardt, H., Glaser, R., Radtke, U., Reuber, P. (eds.) (2012) Geographie - Physische Geographie und Humangeographie , Berlin: Springer. Goudie, Andrew (2007) Physische Geographie , Springer Spektrum. Garrett Hardin, The Tragedy of the Commons, Science , Vol. 162, No. 3859 (December 13, 1968), pp. 1243-1248. Elinor Ostrom, Joanna Burger, Christopher B. Field, Richard B. Norgaard, and David Policansky, Revisiting the Commons: Local Lessons, Global Challenges, Science 9 April 1999 284: 278-282. p. 2
Selected literature p. 3
Causal loops and feedbacks in climate-society interaction Natural resources Human security water water adaptation land food ecosystems energy impact biodiversity health marine resources income non-renewables livelihood development sustainability response framing stress adaptive capacity resilience Climate system Societal stability temperature political events risk precipitation migration extreme weather violence mitigation ice cover conflict ocean currents cooperation sea level institutions Source: Scheffran et al, Climate Change and Violent Conflict, Science, 18 May 2012
What are natural resources? Natural processes, materials and systems that can be used to serve human needs, values and goals. Anthropogenic interpretation of natural resources? Inherent value of nature? Examples of natural resources: Energy Water Food Organisms Biodiversity Minerals Other raw materials p. 5
Environmental tolerance and viability Viability / Productivity V Optimum V Environmental change V = 0 Vulnerable area X + Environmental T X - Tolerance Factor X p. 6
Problems of human-environment interaction Environmental degradation and depletion of natural resources Resource scarcity, food insecurity and energy poverty Global warming and climate change Tragedy of the Commons Individual vs. collective rationality Resource conflicts Implications for society? p. 7
Tragedy of the commons Tragedy of the commons: depletion of a shared resource by multiple individuals, acting independently and rationally according to their self- interest, leading to collective undesirable outcomes because depleting the common resource is contrary to the group's long-term interests. Thomas Malthus (1789) An Essay on the Principle of Population: expected population break down due to famine and disease (Malthusian catastrophe). William Forster Lloyd (1833): hypothetical situation of herders sharing common land to let cows graze. Each cow gives additional benefits until overgrazing damages the common land for all. Individually rational economic decision results in collective destruction of the environmental commons. Garrett Hardin (1968) "The Tragedy of the Commons", ( Science) social dilemma of human population growth, the use of the Earth's natural resources, and the welfare state Elinor Ostrom (1999): tragedy of the commons not prevalent or difficult to solve, since locals often have found cooperative solutions to the commons problem. p. 8
The Earth-Atmosphere System (Source: http://co2now.org/Know-the-Changing-Climate) p. 9
Global material extraction, 1900–2005 GEO-5 (2012) p. 10
Earth’s energy cycle From: Rose (1986) Learning about Energy , Plenum Press, New York. p. 11
Global solar irradiance at Earth’s surface (W/m2) averaged over the period 1983 to 2006 (b) June, July, August (a) December, January, February Source: ISCCP Data Products 2006 p. 12
Annual solar irradiation in EU-MENA on surfaces tilted South with latitude angle in kWh/m²/year Source: Prepared by DLR with data from ECMWF 2002 for WBGU 2003 p. 13
Gross hydropower potentials in EU-MENA adapted from /Lehner et al. 2005 p. 14
Annual precipitation trends, 1900–2000 p. 15 Source: GEO-4
Global wind resource map (5 km x 5 km resolution) Source: IPCC (2011) SRREN p. 16
Global offshore annual wave power level distribution IPCC 2011: SRREN, based on Cornett 2008 p. 17
Surface ocean currents showing warm (red) and cold (blue) systems IPCC 2011 SRREN, based on UCAR 2000 p. 18
Worldwide average ocean temperature differences (°C between 20 and 1,000 m water depth) IPCC 2011 SRREN based on Nihous 2010 p. 19
Global primary production of biomass p. 20 SeaWiFS Project, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center and ORBIMAGE
Map of biomass productivity Bazilevich 1994 p. 21
Formation and composition of plant matter p. 22 Source: Kaltschmitt et al, Renewable Energy, 2007
Plant efficiencies Source: Sorensen p. 23
Factors in plant growth Precipitation Evaporation Solar radiation Temperature Soil water Growing season Degree days Leaf expansion Water stress Leaf expansion index Photosynthesis Photosynthesis water stress Dry matter Yield output Adapted from Clifton-Brown’s MISCANMOD p. 24
Photosynthetic rates of C3 and C4 plants p. 25
World drylands Note: Drylands are defined by the long-term mean of the ratio of annual precipitation to potential evapotranspiration. Drylands include hyperarid areas, while the definition of desertification relates to arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas only (excluding hyperarid), sometimes also referred to as “susceptible drylands.” Source: UNEP 1992 p. 26
Impact on biosphere and pedosphere Multi-model mean changes in (b) frost days [days < 0°C], (d) heat waves [5 consecutive days > Ø + 5°C], (e, f) growing season [days > 5°C] (IPCC 2007) p. 27
Direct and indirect impacts of humans on ecosystem Earth Source: Schickhoff, p. 28 based on Vitousek et al. (1997)
Since 1950: unprecedented extent of human activities p. 29 Steffen et al. (2004)
Alterations of the earth system as a result of the dramatic increase of human activities p. 30 Steffen et al. (2004)
Alterations of the earth system as a result of the dramatic increase of human activities Steffen et al. (2004) p. 31
Latest global trends (Vital signs 2014) Automobile production: World auto production set yet another record in 2012, with passenger-car production rising to 66.7 million. Natural disasters: Natural disasters in 2012 climbed to 905, roughly one hundred more than the 10-year annual average, with 90 percent weather-related. Organic farming: Land farmed organically has tripled since 1999, although it still makes up less than 1 percent of total farmland. Solar and wind power: Solar power consumption increased by 58 percent, and wind power consumption increased by 18 percent in 2012. Military budgets: World military expenditures in 2012 totaled $1,740 billion, the second highest yearly amount since World War II. Fossil fuels : Coal, natural gas, and oil accounted for 87 percent of global primary energy consumption in 2012. Greenhouse gas emissions : Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production reached 9.7 gigatons of carbon in 2012 (with a ±5 percent uncertainty range). This is the highest annual total to date. Food prices: Continuing a decade-long increase, global food prices rose 2.7 percent in 2012, reaching levels not seen since the 1960s and 1970s. p. 32
Total forest area by region Vital Signs 2012 Source: GEO-4 p. 33
Declines in carbon in living biomass and in extent of forest Source: FAO 2006a Source: GEO-4 p. 34
Status of terrestrial ecoregions Note: An ecoregion is a large unit of land containing a geographically distinct assemblage of species, natural communities, and environmental conditions. (Source: GEO-4) p. 35
Projected risks due to critical climate change impacts on ecosystems p. 36 IPCC 2007
Red List Indices of species Living Planet Index, 1970–2007 survival 1980–2010 Living Planet Index measures trends in the abundance of species for which data is available around the world. p. 37
Biodiversity benefits to agriculture through ecosystem services Source: GEO-4 p. 38
Coral bleaching and pH effects on coral reefs p. 39 Source: IPCC 2014, WG2
Trends in vulnerability of the Great Barrier Reef Temporal trend in coral cover for the whole Estimated mean coral mortality per year, due to Great Barrier Reef over the period 1985–2012 different causes for the whole Great Barrier Reef Source: IPCC 2014, WG2, based on De'ath et al., 2012 p. 40
Industrial fishery along the world‘s coasts Fishery in tons per km2 and year p. 41
Exploitation status of marine fish stocks p. 42 Source: GEO-4
Climate change risks and redistribution of fisheries Source: IPCC 2014, WG2 p. 43
Recommend
More recommend
