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Economists in International Development Policy Making Stefan Dercon - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Economists in International Development Policy Making Stefan Dercon - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Economists in International Development Policy Making Stefan Dercon ECONOMISTS AS THE LOYAL SERVANTS An interesting man 3 With an interesting interview technique 4 The economist as the servant of the gut: exemplification
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An interesting man…
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With an interesting interview technique…
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The environment the economist works The economist as the servant of the gut: exemplification
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The dangers of exemplification Distribution of success and failure
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Extent of success % 100
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ECONOMISTS AS THE SOLUTION PROVIDERS
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The international development and aid narrative
The reality The dream ….
?
John Berryman “Swedes don’t exist, Scandinavians in general don’t exist, take it from there.” (Dream Song #31)
Development narratives tend to dream of building Sweden – inclusive, fair, politically moderate, with a strong welfare state and even a golden thread (as on its flag)…
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ECONOMISTS AND THE INCENTIVES OF THE POLITICAL ELITE
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Fundamental challenge to external validity
- f policy
prescriptions and their likely impact.
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ECONOMISTS AS BIASED HUMANS
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Randomly offered different framing Treatment 1: skin cream and impact on skin Treatment 2: minimum wage and impact on incomes of poor
(and randomisation of all labels of table and order of numbers)
Example of finding: confirmation bias
Results from a careful impact evaluation… Number better Number same Treatmen t 223 75 No treatment 107 21
.481419 .649682
.2 .4 .6
Framing of the data
Source: DFID attitudes and behaviour survey
Note: Participants were randomised into 4 groups, each of which recieved a different context, or 'frame'. Two groups recieved contexts on the effect of minimum wages on poverty, and two groups recieved contexts on the effectiveness of skin cream. All participants were presented with identical sets of data, and asked to interpret the data in the context they had recieved. Particiapnts were given two statements to select from, one which was consistent with the data presented, and one which was not. Participants had to identify the statement consistent with the data they had seen.
Do development professionals interpret data subjectively?
Figure 1: The effect of framing on data interpretation
Wage vignette Skin Cream vignette
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So what’s next
- 1. More scientific humility and integrity
– We can’t all be right – We work in highly politicised environments trusting ideology and gut-feeling
- 2. Encourage rigorous synthesis work, rather than
economics as a debating and point scoring science.
- 3. Empower economists across civil services across