Economic implications of climate change on human health through - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Economic implications of climate change on human health through - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Economic implications of climate change on human health through undernourishment Tomoko HASEGAWA The 21 st AIM international workshop, 15/11/2015 0 Our earlier studies Socio-economic Climate change conditions Adaptation Hasegawa et al.,

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Economic implications of climate change on human health through undernourishment

Tomoko HASEGAWA

The 21st AIM international workshop, 15/11/2015

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Our earlier studies

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Mitigation Socio-economic conditions Adaptation Undernourishment/ Population at risk of hunger Health impacts through undernutrition Economic impacts/ implications

Hasegawa et al., 2015,ERL

Ishida et al., 2014

Hasegawa et al., under review Hasegawa et al., 2015, EST Hasegawa et al., 2014, EST

Climate change

 Now we are here!

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Future hunger risk in this century

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Our earlier studies

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Mitigation Socio-economic conditions Adaptation Undernourishment/ Population at risk of hunger Health impacts through undernutrition Economic impacts/ implications

Hasegawa et al., 2015,ERL

Ishida et al., 2014

Hasegawa et al., under review Hasegawa et al., 2015, EST Hasegawa et al., 2014, EST

Climate change

 Now we are here!

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Consequences of mitigation on undernourishment

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Hasegawa et al. 2015

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Health burden due to childhood undernutrition

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Ishida et al. 2014

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Our earlier studies

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Mitigation Socio-economic conditions Adaptation Undernourishment/ Population at risk of hunger Health impacts through undernutrition Economic impacts/ implications

Hasegawa et al., 2015,ERL

Ishida et al., 2014

Hasegawa et al., under review Hasegawa et al., 2015, EST Hasegawa et al., 2014, EST

Climate change  Now we are here!

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Research question

“How large is climate change impact on human health through undernourishment?”

  • Economic impacts of decreases in labor force and population, and

additional healthcare cost

  • Value of lives lost.

＜Role of this study＞

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Climate change Extreme heat Change in vector habitat

  • Death and disease
  • Labor force productivity
  • Medical services

Crop production

  • Undernourishment
  • Child underweight
  • Death and disease
  • Medical service
  • Labor force

Economic impact Economic impact Human health Agriculture & Food Economic impact/ implications

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Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALY)

  • DALY is years of "healthy" life lost weighted by disability and mortality (Murray 1996).
  • DALYs have been used by WHO as a measurement of disease burden.
  • DALY have information of risk factor and disease or disability
  • E.g. ：risk factor →

disease or disability

  • childhood underweight → malaria
  • tobacco

→ lung cancer

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source: WHO 2009

Childhood underweight is the highest risk factor of disability in low income regions

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Major causes of death in children under 5 years old (Shaded area: contribution of undernutrition to each cause of death)

source: WHO http://www.who.int/healthinfo/global_burden_disease/GlobalHealthRisks_report_full.pdf

下痢 はしか マラリア 百日咳 新生児への深刻な感染 早産（未熟）児 出生時の呼吸停止、心的外傷

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栄養の欠乏 その他感染症

source: WHO 2009

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Proportion of children under 5 year of age stunted Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALY) Number of mortality Years Lived with Disability (YLD) Change in

  • Population
  • Labor population

Medical expenditure Economic effects

  • GDP loss
  • Welfare loss

2 socioeconomic conditions AIM/CGE model Change in crop yield

Exogenous variables Model/ module

  • Income
  • GINI

coefficient the Prevalence of Undernourishment (PoU)

Endogenous variables

DALY module (Ishida et al., 2014) Economic value

  • f life lost
  • Food calorie intake
  • Population at risk of hunger

Stunting module (Lloyd et al., 2011, Ishida et al., 2014) Food market

Modeling framework

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Household expenditure

Added variables

  • Population at risk of hunger
  • DALY
  • Medical expenditure
  • Mortality
  • value of life lost

Two feedback

  • 1) Mortality fed back to population

and labor force

  • 2) Medical cost fed back to

household expenditure

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DALY model

  • Ishida et al. (2014)
  • t: year, c: country, d: disease;
  • DALY t,c,d: DALY due to disease d (year)
  • POPt,c: population
  • Yt,c: Proportion of children stunted.

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( )

, , , ,

log( ) log

t c d d d t c t c

DALY Y POP ϕ ψ = + ⋅

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Economic value of Life lost as a result of Disability

  • Valu

alue of S Statis istic ical al Life ( e (VSL): L): an evaluation based on the WTP to avoid the risk of death.

  • Approach developed by OECD (2012), where the VSL is derived

using an income adjustment.

  • The value of the health risk observed in China, 2005 was

applied to other mid- or low- income regions.

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Scenario settings

  • 3 climate conditions: RCP2.6, RCP8.5, No climate change
  • 2 socioeconomic conditions: SSP2, SSP3
  • Year: 2005-2100

Uncertainty

  • 4 crop models
  • 5 climate models
  • 3 climate conditions

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SSP2 SSP3 No change X X RCP8.5 X X RCP2.6 X X

Climate conditions Socioeconomic conditions