Economic implications of climate change on human health through - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Economic implications of climate change on human health through undernourishment Tomoko HASEGAWA The 21 st AIM international workshop, 15/11/2015 0

Our earlier studies Socio-economic Climate change conditions Adaptation Hasegawa et al., 2014, EST Mitigation Hasegawa et al., 2015, EST Undernourishment/ Hasegawa et al., 2015,ERL Population at risk of hunger Health impacts through undernutrition Economic impacts/ Ishida et al., 2014  Now we are here! implications Hasegawa et al., under review 1

Future hunger risk in this century 2

Our earlier studies Socio-economic Climate change conditions Adaptation Hasegawa et al., 2014, EST Mitigation Hasegawa et al., 2015, EST Undernourishment/ Hasegawa et al., 2015,ERL Population at risk of hunger Health impacts through undernutrition Economic impacts/ Ishida et al., 2014  Now we are here! implications Hasegawa et al., under review 3

Consequences of mitigation on undernourishment Hasegawa et al. 2015 4

Health burden due to childhood undernutrition Ishida et al. 2014 5

Our earlier studies Socio-economic Climate change conditions Adaptation Hasegawa et al., 2014, EST Mitigation Hasegawa et al., 2015, EST Undernourishment/ Hasegawa et al., 2015,ERL Population at risk of hunger Health impacts through undernutrition Economic impacts/  Now we are here! Ishida et al., 2014 implications Hasegawa et al., under review 6

Research question “How large is climate change impact on human health through undernourishment?” • Economic impacts of decreases in labor force and population, and additional healthcare cost • Value of lives lost. Human health Death and disease • Extreme heat Economic Labor force productivity • impact Change in vector habitat Medical services • Agriculture & Food Climate ＜ Role of this study ＞ change Economic Death and disease • Crop Undernourishment • impact/ Medical service • production Child underweight • implications Labor force • Economic impact 7

Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALY) • DALY is years of "healthy" life lost weighted by disability and mortality (Murray 1996). • DALYs have been used by WHO as a measurement of disease burden. • DALY have information of risk factor and disease or disability • E.g. ： risk factor → disease or disability • childhood underweight → malaria tobacco → lung cancer • 8

Childhood underweight is the highest risk factor of disability in low income regions 9 source: WHO 2009

Major causes of death in children under 5 years old (Shaded area: contribution of undernutrition to each cause of death) 百日咳 出生時の呼吸停止、心的外傷 早産（未熟）児 下痢 新生児への深刻な感染 はしか 栄養の欠乏 その他感染症 マラリア 10 source: WHO http://www.who.int/healthinfo/global_burden_disease/GlobalHealthRisks_report_full.pdf source: WHO 2009

Modeling framework 2 socioeconomic Change in crop yield conditions Added variables AIM/CGE model Population at risk of hunger • Food market DALY Food calorie intake • • Population at risk of hunger • Medical expenditure • Income the Prevalence of • Mortality GINI Undernourishment • • coefficient (PoU) value of life lost • Stunting module Two feedback (Lloyd et al., 2011, Ishida et al., 2014) Proportion of children 1) Mortality fed back to population • under 5 year of age stunted and labor force Household DALY module expenditure 2) Medical cost fed back to • ( Ishida et al., 2014 ) household expenditure Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALY) Economic value Years Lived with Number of mortality of life lost Disability (YLD) Change in Population • Labor population Medical expenditure • Model/ module Economic effects Exogenous GDP loss • 11 variables Welfare loss Endogenous • variables

DALY model • Ishida et al. (2014) DALY ( ) = ϕ + ψ ⋅ t c d , , log( ) log Y d d t c , POP t c , • t: year, c: country, d: disease; • DALY t,c,d : DALY due to disease d (year) • POP t,c : population • Y t,c : Proportion of children stunted. 12

Economic value of Life lost as a result of Disability • Valu alue of S Statis istic ical al Life ( e (VSL): L): an evaluation based on the WTP to avoid the risk of death. • Approach developed by OECD (2012), where the VSL is derived using an income adjustment. • The value of the health risk observed in China, 2005 was applied to other mid- or low- income regions. 13

Scenario settings • 3 climate conditions: RCP2.6, RCP8.5, No climate change • 2 socioeconomic conditions: SSP2, SSP3 • Year: 2005-2100 Socioeconomic conditions SSP2 SSP3 Climate conditions Uncertainty No change X X • 4 crop models RCP8.5 X X • 5 climate models RCP2.6 X X • 3 climate conditions 14