Economic Impacts of the Ebola Outbreak Rachel Glennerster (IGC Lead - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Economic Impacts of the Ebola Outbreak Rachel Glennerster (IGC Lead - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Nov 02, 2022 220 likes •449 views

Economic Impacts of the Ebola Outbreak Rachel Glennerster (IGC Lead Academic for Sierra Leone and JPAL) Joint work with Tavneet Suri (IGC Agriculture and MIT Sloan) Sierra Leone: economic background GNI per capita of $1,750 PPP (2013) vs

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Economic Impacts of the Ebola Outbreak

Rachel Glennerster (IGC Lead Academic for Sierra Leone and JPAL) Joint work with Tavneet Suri (IGC Agriculture and MIT Sloan)

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Sierra Leone: economic background

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  • GNI per capita of $1,750 PPP (2013) vs $2,250 for Kenya
  • Heath expenditure per capita $96 (2012), life expectancy at birth

45 years

  • Food insecurity peaks in August prior to rice harvest in September
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Ebola cases: June 29

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Ebola cases: August 15

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Ebola cases: August 21

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Ebola cases: August 31

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Ebola cases: September 4

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Ebola cases: September 11

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Ebola cases: September 18

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Economic impacts: areas of concern

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  • Government restrictions on bars, motor cycle taxis,

continuing cordon of districts, nationwide 3 day curfew

  • External trade, manufacturing and mining:
  • Restrictions on flights and shipping
  • Repatriation of many expats
  • Domestic costs of uncertainty
  • Postponement of discretionary purchases and general

activity

  • Tightening credit, risk premiums rising? delays in

payments?

  • Restrictions on internal trade, distribution of basic goods
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Good rains for a good harvest

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Market survey: prices and traders

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Price: Imported rice

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Price: Domestic rice

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Price: Staple foods

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Traders: Domestic rice

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Traders: Staple foods

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Overview

  • 21% of farmers report having started harvests in September

2014 (As opposed to 8% in August 2014)

  • Price of domestic rice is lower in cordon areas than in 2012
  • important to not flood these markets with too much rice.
  • Number of traders of local rice is lower by about 40% compared

to this time in 2012 in cordon districts

  • If this translates into fewer traders purchasing rice from

farmers this could negatively affect farmers’ incomes

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Overview (contd)

  • Though price of rice, gari and palm oil are similar to previous years,
  • a handful of markets, especially in Kailahun are showing price

spikes for imported and domestic rice

  • important to ensure that these markets receive inflows of imported

rice

  • 17 markets out of 155 contacted in September reported to be closed,

including because of Ebola

  • 9 of these markets reported that traders continue to sell produce

from home

  • Petrol prices are similar in cordon and non-cordon areas

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Pdf: Domestic Rice Price

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International Growth Centre London School of Economics and Political Science Houghton Street London WC2 2AE www.theigc.org