SLIDE 1 ECONOMIC AND REAL ESTATE ANALYSIS FOR SUSTAINABLE LAND USE OUTCOMES™ ECONOMIC AND REAL ESTATE ANALYSIS FOR SUSTAINABLE LAND USE OUTCOMES™
Village of Patchogue Revitalization, Economic Impact Analysis
Prepared for: Long Island Regional Planning Council
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The Long Island Regional Planning Council acknowledges and appreciates the support of the Suffolk County Economic Development Corporation in producing this study.
SLIDE 3 Interviews
- Village of Patchogue public officials
- Patchogue-Medford School District superintendent
- Town of Brookhaven officials
- Local real estate professionals
- Local business owners
Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis: Methods Employed
SLIDE 4 Economic Impact Analysis
- Public Subsidies
- Private Development Investment
- Spending from New Non-Local Households
- New Businesses Operations
- Prospective residential and commercial development
Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis: Methods Employed
SLIDE 5 Fiscal Impact Analysis
- New residents and public school-age children.
- Net fiscal impacts to the school district
- Prospective residential and commercial development
Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis: Methods Employed
SLIDE 6 Comparative Analysis
- Real Property Values
- Number of Business Establishments
- Value of Sales, Receipts or Revenues
- Annual Payroll
- Number of Employees
Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis: Methods Employed
SLIDE 7
Historical Overview
SLIDE 8
The economic foundation of Patchogue was developed around heavy industry, which led to the establishment of retail, hospitality and entertainment businesses.
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SLIDE 10
Patchogue’s commercial district was a regional destination for many decades and a good deal of the building architecture remains – lending to Patchogue’s current visitor appeal.
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2% to 5% Vacancy Rate Pre 1960s
The Central Business District (CBD) Remains Healthy
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10% to 20% Vacancy Rate 1960s to 1970s
The CBD Begins to Experience Increased Vacancies
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40% to 50% Vacancy Rate 1980s to 1990s
The CBD Experiences Full Blown Distress
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What happened next?
SLIDE 16 What were the catalysts underpinning Patchogue’s revitalization?
Vision sion and Volunt lunteerism erism: the “can do” attitude of the village’s civic, business, and elected leaders Infrastr frastruc ucture ture Impr mproveme ements: nts: including expansion of the village’s wastewater treatment facility Par Partne nersh ships ps with h Developers: elopers: allowing developers to “bring their best” ideas and encouraging them to invest in the community Vigor
ursui uit t of Grant nt Fun undi ding: ng: municipal projects, arts organizations, and business groups all benefitted
SLIDE 17 What were the catalysts underpinning Patchogue’s revitalization?
Creat ating ing an En Enter erta tainm nment nt and Dining ng Destinat stination: ion: creating more and better
- ptions to encourage visitor spending
Attracti cting ng Visitor
s with th Comm mmuni nity ty Ev Events ts: including the annual Alive at Five event welcoming thousands to the village Bui uilding ding a N New w Ar Arts s and Cul ultura ural l Scene ene: including renovation of the Patchogue theater and artist housing
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Every successful revitalization effort has a champion at its beginning.
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Economic Impact Analysis
SLIDE 20 $0 $2,000,000 $4,000,000 $6,000,000 $8,000,000 $10,000,000 $12,000,000 $14,000,000 $16,000,000 $18,000,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Patchogue Chamber of Commerce Village of Patchogue Copper Beech Artspace The Gateway Patchogue Arts Council Patchogue Village Center for the Performing Arts Patchogue Community Development Agency Worldwide Voices Patchogue Theatre for the Performing Arts
Economic Impact Analysis: Pub ubli lic Sub ubsidies sidies
From 2001 to 2017, Patchogue secured $60.3 million in public subsidies (grants, loans, tax incentives). $37 million in grants alone
SLIDE 21 Patchogue’s ability to secure and/or provide grants, loans and tax incentives was critical to the scale of private investment made over the past 17 years
$60.3MM $246MM
Grants, Loans & Tax Incentives Total Private Residential Development Costs
SLIDE 22 $246 Million lion in n Constru struction ction Investments estments For every y $1. 1.00 directly ectly invest ested d in const struct ruction n activ ivity ity, , $0.70 in indirect irect and induced ed activit vity y resu sult lted ed throug
Suf uffolk
unty econom nomy.
$79.4M 9.4MM M in indi direct rect econom
c out utput ut + $93.4 3.4MM M in induc duced ed econ
c out utput put + $246. 46.0MM 0MM in direct ect econ
c out utput put =
$418. 18.8MM MM in tota tal l economic
put
1, 1,435 435 direc rect t tempora porary y jobs s + 582 indire rect ct temporar porary y jobs + 651 induc duced ed temporar porary y jobs s =
2,668 total tal tempor
ary jobs For every y 100 direct ect constr truction ction relat ated ed jobs s creat ated ed, , 86 indirect irect and induced ed jobs s were creat ated ed within hin the Suffolk lk County unty econo nomy.
SLIDE 23 Economic Impact Analysis: Direct & Indirect Employment Impacts
inesses estab tabli lishe shed d in downtown wn Pa Patc tchogu
e bet betwee een n 2000 and nd 2017.
se businesses inesses are considered idered stable ble (operat erating ing for at least st one full year). r).
timat ated ed 408 direct ect new jobs s in the downtown n are attri tribu buted ed to these se new businesses. inesses.
itional ional 128 indire irect ct and induced uced jobs s were e creat ated ed in Suffolk
nty as a resu sult. lt.
SLIDE 24 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
2001 2003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2022
Food services Retail trade Real estate and rental and leasing Professional, scientific, and technical services Other services (except public administration) Finance and insurance Arts, entertainment, and recreation
Economic Impact Analysis: New Businesses Stabilized by Type
42 new businesses stabilized by 2017
SLIDE 25 Economic Impact Analysis: 2000 to 2017 Total Economic Impacts Cumu mulativ lative e numbe ber r of jobs: s: 5,918 18 Total al Direct ect Economic
put: $408,476,6 ,636 Total al Indirec irect t Economic nomic Outp tput: ut: $124,349,6 ,678 Total al Induced ed Economic
put: $160,483,6 ,644 Total al Economic nomic Out utput: put: $693,309,9 ,958 58
The e above e value ues s pertain tain to const struc ructi tion,
w house useho holds lds spendin nding g and new w bus usines iness operati eration
s over r the e 17-year r period iod.
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Fiscal Impact Analysis
SLIDE 27 Fiscal Impact Analysis Findings: Public School Children Impacts
Copper Beech Condos
Riverview Condos Bay Village Condos Artspace Lofts New Village Riverwalk Condos
714 total dwelling units 1,465 total residents 142 total public school-age children
The above population figures are likely overstated, based on local interviews and secondary research
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Fiscal Impact Analysis Findings: Public School Children Impacts Over the 12-year period examined, the PMSD realized a decrease ease of ne nearly rly 1,100 students udents, despite an overall increase in the Village population during the same timespan.
SLIDE 29 Fiscal Impact Analysis Findings: Public School Children Impacts The likely average per pupil cost for new students in the district is assumed to be $4,000 (approximately
- ne sixth of the current average cost).
Residential Project Years Open Total PSAC Lower Limit Average Cost ($4,000/Pupil) Total Annual Average Cost Total Educational Service Cost Since Project Opening Copper Beech 10 8 $32,000 $320,000 Condos on Waverly 11 4 $16,000 $176,000 Riverview Condos 9 6 $24,000 $216,000 Bay Village Condos 10 6 $24,000 $240,000 Artspace Lofts 5 18 $72,000 $360,000 New Village Apartments 5 81 $324,000 $1,620,000 Riverwalk Condos 7 19 $76,000 $532,000 Totals 142 $568,000 $3,464,000
An estimated $3.5 million in total educational service costs since 2006.
SLIDE 30 Residential Project Years Open Total PMSD Taxes Copper Beech 10 $1,869,561 Condos on Waverly 11 $1,215,206 Riverview Condos 9 $668,679 Bay Village Condos 10 $1,753,566 Artspace Lofts 5 $59,910 New Village Apartments 5 *** Riverwalk Condos 7 $1,047,347 Totals $6,614,297
Fiscal Impact Analysis Findings: Public School Children Impacts Based on tax assessor data, the seven multi- family projects examined have a cumulative tax levy total of $6,614,297 since 2006.
An estimated $6.6 million in total tax levies 2006.
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Fiscal Impact Analysis Findings: Public School Children Impacts
$6,614,29 4,297 7 in estimated tax levies over ten years minus… $3,46 464,000 4,000 in estimated educational costs over the same ten years = $3,150,29 50,297 7 es esti timat mated ed net surplus revenues to the School District
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Fiscal Impact Analysis Findings: Prospective Development
What fiscal impact would occur if a new 100-room hotel were developed? Or a new 60-unit apartment building?
SLIDE 33 $472, 72,234 234 $130, 130,202 02 $342, 42,032 032 $736, 36,732 732 $236, 36,54 544 4 $500, 00,188 88
$0 $200,000 $400,000 $600,000 $800,000
Total Local Net Fiscal Impacts Net Impact to Village Net Impact to Public Schools 100 room Hotel Multi-family Residential
Net Fiscal Impact Findings: Prospective Large Scale Development Projects
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Comparative Analysis
SLIDE 35 4% 24% 31% 34% 35% 43%
Sayville Patchogue (Non-Village) Patchogue Village Bellport Blue Point Brookhaven Real Estate Market Value Percentage Change: 2004 -2018
Real Estate Market Value Trends: Real Estate Market Value
Source: Town of Brookhaven, Department of Assessment, 2018
SLIDE 36 Comparative Business Employment & Investment Trends
Source: Census Bureau, ACS, 2018
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Retail Trade Professional, Scientific & Technical Svcs. Health Care & Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment & Recreation Accommodation & Food Services
Businesses Established: Percentage Change Since 2002-2012
SLIDE 37 Comparative Business Employment & Investment Trends
0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% Retail Trade Professional, Scientific & Technical Svcs. Health Care & Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment & Recreation Accommodation & Food Services
Value of Sales, Receipts, Revenue Percentage Change, 2002-2012
Source: Census Bureau, ACS, 2018
SLIDE 38 Comparative Business Employment & Investment Trends
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% Retail Trade Professional, Scientific & Technical Svcs. Health Care & Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment & Recreation Accommodation & Food Services
Annual Payroll Percentage Change, 2002-2012
Source: Census Bureau, ACS, 2018
SLIDE 39 Comparative Business Employment & Investment Trends
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% Retail Trade Professional, Scientific & Technical Svcs. Health Care & Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment & Recreation Accommodation & Food Services
Number of Employees Percentage Change, 2002-2012
Source: Census Bureau, ACS, 2018
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Study Takeaways
SLIDE 41 Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis: Study Takeaways
Upfront
public ic in inves estmen ent t can lever erage ge many tim imes es it its val alue ue in in pr privat ivate e in inves estmen ment. t.
pera rati tion
g vario ious us pu public ic and d pr privat ivate e sec ector
actors s is is c crit itic ical! al!
Without ut one or e or more e stea eadfast dfast champi pions
, suc ucce cess ss is is no not lik ikel ely y to be e rea ealiz ized ed.
esid iden entia ial l de devel elopmen pment t – pa partic icula ularly rly multi ti- fam amil ily y dw dwel ellin ing g un unit its – can annot not be e au automati matica call lly y assume med d to be a e a fis iscal al burde den to a c commun mmunit ity.
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Questions?
www.4wardPlanning.com www.LandUseImpacts.com
