Economic and Demographic Outlook for the U.S. and Dallas Fort Worth: - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Economic and Demographic Outlook for the U.S. and Dallas ‐ Fort Worth: Some Implications for Health Care Bernard Weinstein, Ph.D. Cox School of Business Southern Methodist University Dallas, Texas Presentation to Dallas ‐ Fort Worth Hospital Council January 27, 2011

Real Economic Growth 3Q 2010: Gross domestic product +2.6% 7% 5% 3% 1% -1% -3% -5% -7% 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Commerce Department

U. S. Jobless Rate Dec. ‘10: In percent, seasonally adjusted: 9.4% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D 2009 2010 Source: U.S. Department of Labor

Nonfarm Payrolls Dec. ’10: 103,000 Monthly change, in thousands 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 -400 -500 -600 -700 -800 F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D 2009 2010 Source: Labor Department

Retail Sales Dec. 2010: $375.3 billion Total retail sales in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted. $400 $380 $360 $340 $320 $300 A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D 2009 2010 Source: U.S. Commerce Department

Personal Consumption Nov. 2010: $10.60 trillion In trillions $10.6 $10.4 $10.2 $10.0 $9.8 $9.6 $9.4 S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N 2009 2010 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of Economic Analysis

Industrial Production Index, 2007=100, seasonally adjusted Nov. 2010: 104.6 115 110 105 100 95 Source: Federal Reserve Board 2009 2010

Leading Indicators Index of 10 indicators designed to “lead,” or predict overall Nov. 2010: economic activity; 2004 = 100. 112.5 120 118 116 114 112 110 108 106 104 102 100 98 96 O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N 2008 2009 2010 Source: The Conference Board

DFW Metropolitan Population 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Metro Growth The most populated metropolitan areas in the country, ranked by their growth rates from 1990 to 2009. 1990 2009 % Metropolitan Area Population* Population Change 1 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta 3,069,425 5,475,213 78.4% 2 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington 3,989,294 6,447,615 61.6% 3 Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land 3,767,218 5,867,489 55.8% 4 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach 4,056,228 5,547,051 36.8% 5 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria 4,122,259 5,476,241 32.8% 6 Chicago-Naperville-Joliet 8,181,939 9,580,567 17.1% 7 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana 11,273,720 12,874,797 14.2% 8 New York-No. New Jersey-Long Island 16,863,671 19,069,796 13.1% 9 Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH 4,133,895 4,588,680 11.0% 10 Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington 5,435,550 5,968,252 9.80% *Areas are defined based on the 2008 MSA definitions Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Population Growth in Dallas ‐ Fort Worth ‐ Arlington by Area, 1980 ‐ 2040 County 1980 1990 2000 2008 2040 Number of Inhabitants by Area Dallas 1,556,390 1,852,810 2,218,899 2,412,827 3,143,670 Tarrant 860,880 1,170,103 1,446,219 1,750,091 3,917,570 Others 599,908 966,381 1,496,426 2,137,088 8,250,582 Total 3,017,178 3,989,294 5,161,544 6,300,006 15,311,822 Percent of Population in Area Dallas 52 46 43 38 21 Tarrant 29 29 28 28 26 Others 20 24 29 34 54 Total 100 100 100 100 100 Sources: 1980 ‐ 2000. U.S. Census Bureau Counts; 2008 Census Bureau Estimates; 2040: State Data Center 2000 ‐ 2007 Migration Scenario Projection

Employment Change 2004 ‐ 2007 Total for DFW Houston Austin San Antonio Texas 2,698,200 2,289,800 667,400 760,000 9,497,100 2004 (1.2%) (0.7%) (2.2%) (1.1%) (1.3%) 2,766,500 2,348,600 692,200 782,000 9,740,500 2005 (2.5%) (2.56%) (3.7%) (2.9%) (2.6%) 2,860,800 2,446,000 720,000 811,300 10,053,300 2006 (3.4%) (4.2%) (4.0%) (3.7%) (3.2%) 2,990,800 2,568,500 763,300 840,100 10,451,700 2007 (4.5%) (5.0%) (6.0%) (3.6%) (4.0%) Change 04-07 292,600 278,700 95,900 80,100 954,600 Source: Texas Workforce Commission

Unemployment Rate, U. S., U. S. Dec. 2010 = 9.4% Texas, & D/FW Texas Dec. 2010 = 8.3% D/FW Dec. 2010 = 8.2% 10.5% U. S. & Texas Seasonally Adjusted *D/FW not Seasonally Adjusted 9.5% Texas U.S. D/FW* 8.5% 7.5% 6.5% 5.5% 4.5% 3.5% Sept. '07 Sept. '08 Sept. '09 Sept. '10 Source: Texas Workforce Commission

Projected Ethnicity Change in the U.S. Percent Ethnicity 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 PERCENT OF TOTAL POPULATION TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 White 81.0 79.3 77.6 75.8 73.9 72.1 Black 12.7 13.1 13.5 13.9 14.3 14.6 Asian 3.8 4.6 5.4 6.2 7.1 8.0 Other 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.1 4.7 5.3 Hispanic 12.6 15.5 17.8 20.1 22.3 24.4 White not Hisp 69.4 65.1 61.3 57.5 53.7 50.1 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2004

Hispanic Population in the United States: 1970 to 2050 102.6 Population in millions 87.6 73.0 59.7 47.8 35.3 14.6 22.4 9.6 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010* 2020* 2030* 2040* 2050* Census Projections *Projected Population as of July 1 17 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1970, 1980, 1990, and 2000 Decennial Censuses; Population Projections, July 1, 2010 to July 1, 2050

Percent Hispanic of the Total Population in the United States: 1970 to 2050 24.4 22.3 20.1 17.8 15.5 12.5 9.0 6.4 4.7 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010* 2020* 2030* 2040* 2050* Census Projections *Projected Population as of July 1 18 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1970, 1980, 1990, and 2000 Decennial Censuses; Population Projections, July 1, 2010 to July 1, 2050

Texas Projected Population 2005-2040 by Race/Ethnicity and Migration Scenario* 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Total Anglo Black Hispanic Other Source: Texas State Data Center *.5 Scenario

DFW MSA Projected Population 2005-2040 by Race/Ethnicity and Migration Scenario* 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Total Anglo Black Hispanic Other Source: Texas State Data Center *.5 Scenario

Dallas County Projected Population 2005-2040 by Race/Ethnicity and Migration Scenario* 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Total Anglo Black Hispanic Other Source: Texas State Data Center *.5 Scenario

Tarrant County Projected Population 2005-2040 by Race/Ethnicity and Migration Scenario* 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Total Anglo Black Hispanic Other Source: Texas State Data Center *.5 Scenario

Projected Ethnic Change in North Central Texas, 2000 ‐ 2040 Source: Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario

Percentage of NCT Population by Ethnicity at Each Age, 2000 At age 0: % Anglo: 60 % Hispanic: 21 At age 85+: % Anglo: 86 %Hispanic: 4 Source: Texas State Dat a Center

Percentage of NCT Population by Ethnicity at Each Age, 2040 Source: Texas State Data Center Population Projections, 2000 ‐ 2004 Migration Scenario

Educational Attainment by Sex: 2006 (Population 25 years and older) 84.6 83.5 61.7 58.7 27.9 26.2 24.5 23.3 13.1 11.5 6.7 6.3 Total: Male Total: Female Hispanic: Male Hispanic: Female Less than 9th grade High school or more Bachelor's degree or more 27 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 American Community Survey

Occupation of the Employed Male Civilian Population 16 Years and Older: 2006 (Percent distribution) 31.0 Professional 13.7 13.4 Service 19.6 17.9 Sales and Office 14.1 1.1 Farming, Fishing, and Forestry 3.0 18.0 Construction and Maintenance 26.8 18.6 Production and Transportation 22.8 Total Hispanic 28 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 American Community Survey

Occupation of the Employed Female Civilian Population 16 Years and Older: 2006 (Percent distribution) 37.3 Professional 22.5 20.1 Service 29.6 35.1 Sales and Office 33.8 0.3 Farming, Fishing, and Forestry 1.2 0.7 Construction and Maintenance 0.9 6.5 Production and Transportation 11.9 Total Hispanic 29 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 American Community Survey

Median Earnings by Sex in the Past 12 Months: 2006 (For employed, full ‐ time, year ‐ round workers 16 and older. In 2006 inflation ‐ adjusted dollars) $42,210 $32,649 $27,490 $24,738 Male Female Total Hispanic 30 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 American Community Survey