Economic, Demographic and Social, Determinants for Disability Phenomenon in Egypt and its Impact on Human Development Dr.Nagy A.N. Nevein Dr. Mohamed mostafa Abstract : Economic, social and demographic determinants that affect Development Indicator include a lot of factors. This is important in order to know such factors. A lot of influential factors are discovered, such as gender, level of education and others. The outcome of this study will help the decision-makers in Egypt draw their strategic plans for the country and focus on the factors which hinder the exerted development efforts. The most important recommendations of this paper is to give attention to collecting disability-specific data in Egypt , on national surveys, as well as developing the disability questions in census 2016 in Egypt. Introduction : Disability phenomenon is one of the oldest problems which faces the society and affects the life of people (children-youth – senile). It also affects the families and communities. The importance of this study is to know which factors affect human development. According to censes 2006 in Egypt, Disability reached 0.6% of the community. Review of Literature There are a lot of studies and researches that discuss different aspects of the disability phenomenon. Social studies: Abo ELnaser , Medhat 2005 ، Salah, Ebrahem, Soheer 2005 ، NCCE , League of Arab States 2009 ) Psychological studies : (El-Saied Mohamed , Doaa 2009 ، Kamel Abdel Malak, Neveen 2003 ( Statistical studies ( Federation of Authorities for Care of Special Categories of persons with disabilities, 2009 ، Abd El- Baky, Mohamed 2003 ) Planning and educational studies ( Mahmoud El-Saied, Doaa 2010 , Mohamed Farag – Mariam 2007 ) Medical Studies ( El-Hafez Abd El-Baky, Mohamed 2010 , Mostafa Amr , Eman 2007(
Law Studies: ( El-Zubair, Abd Alla 2010 ، Program of Action of the International Conference on Population and Development 1994 ) Although there are a lot of studies that discuss the disability issue in Egypt from different angles and disciplines, there are no studies that tackle the relation between disability and development and the impact of disability on human development. Therefore, this study is interested in this point. Study problem The population age structure reflects the future labor force. Disability among children is the mirror that reflects the state and productivity of the labor force - not only this - child disability is imposed on one of the parents and affects them. This could lead to the loss of the productive capacity of the labor force on one hand, and on the other hand, the burden of dependency on their families. Furthermore, disability among youth is a development obstacle since youth are the active element in labor force which negatively affects economic growth and development. Moreover, disability among the elderly is a real problem for themselves, their families and the community as a whole. Disability in this category is due to ageing, acquired disability (e.g. accident, illnesses …) Keywords : Development indicator, strategy planning, disability Operational definition Disability : is an umbrella term covering impairments, activity limitation and participation restriction. Impairment is a problem in body function or structure. Activity limitation is a difficulty encountered by an individual in involvement in life situation. Development indicators : Usually a numerical measure of quality of life in a country. Indicators are used to illustrate progress of a country in meeting a range of economic, social, and environmental goals . Strategic planning: is an organization's process of defining its strategy, or direction, and making decisions on allocating its resources to pursue this strategy. It may also extend to control mechanisms for guiding the implementation of the strategy. Strategic planning became prominent in corporations during the 1960 s and remains an important aspect of strategic management. It is executed by strategic planners or strategists, who involve
many parties and research sources in their analysis of the organization and its relationship to the environment in which it competes. Strategy has many definitions, but generally involves setting goals, determining actions to achieve the goals, and mobilizing resources to execute the actions. A strategy describes how the ends (goals) will be achieved by the means (resources). The senior leadership of an organization is generally tasked with determining strategy. Strategy can be planned (intended) or can be observed as a pattern of activity (emergent) as the organization adapts or to or competes with its environment. Strategy includes processes of formulation and implementation; strategic planning helps coordinate both. However, strategic planning is analytical in nature (i.e., it involves "finding the dots"); strategy formation itself involves synthesis (i.e., "connecting the dots") via strategic thinking. As such, strategic planning occurs around the strategy formation activity Paper Objective: is to determine the impact of economic, social and demographic factors on human development indicator in Egypt Paper Hypotheses : There is an impact of the disability phenomenon on human development indicator (Such as education, work, disability types and place of residence) Methodology and Data We used data of the social contract, 2005 ( 29375 case) of 6000 households, 1000 of them from the poorest villages – used data census, 2006 sample 10% ( 47640 case) – used human development indicator 2008 , Egypt. It is known that there is problem in the undeveloped countries in general and special disability data ( data collection – and the people ) Ordinal logistic regression and multinomial logistic regression analysis have been used to predict the future consequences of disability on human development. (Yi)=Exp(B 0 i+ ∑ BijXij)/{ 1 + ∑ Exp( B 0 i+ ∑ BijXij)} , where Y is the human development indicator. We will use spss techniques for data analysis. Results:
We find that the model of Multinomial logistic regression of censes data 2006 explains the development indicator by 78% and also classifies the disabled in a correct and good way by 81% as shown in table ( 2 ), while we find that the model of Multinomial logistic regression of contract data 2005 explains the results significantly by 83% as table ( 1 ) and also classifies the disabled in a correct way by 82% . We find that the model of Multinomial logistic regression of censes data 2006 had a lot of significant factors such as: (Disability Type – Age – Wealth Index – Education - Residence Place – urban – rural residence) as shown in table( 3 ) at the Development indicator. We find that the model of Ordinal logistic regression of social contract data 2005 explains the result by 27% as shown in table ( 5 ) while the model of Ordinal logistic regression of censes data 2006 explains the result by 70% as shown in table ( 6 ). We find that the model of Ordinal logistic regression of censes data 2006 had shown a lot of significant factors such as: (Disability Type – Disability cause - Age- Gender – Wealth Index – Education - Residence Place - urban, rural residence ) as shown in table ( 6 ) at the Development indicator. Recommendations Giving attention to collecting disability-specific data , on national surveys, and also Development of the disability questions in census 2016 in Egypt. Table ( 1 )
Goodness of Fit - Social contract 2005 - 2 loglikihood Cox & snell R Nagelkerke R Percent correct square square 378,190 0.737 0.834 0,82 Calculate by the researcher Table ( 2 ) Goodness of Fit – censes 2006 Cox & snell R Nagelkerke R - 2 loglikihood Percent correct square square 26367.847 . 660 . 778 0.81 Calculate by the researcher
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