Ecological and Socio-economic Vulnerability links closely with - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Ecological and Socio-economic Vulnerability links closely with climate variation: A study exploring adaptation using this connect Addressing Climate Change :It is an imperative which we have to do in all the circumstances 14 November 2011 : Climate Vulnerability Forum, Dhaka Summit, Bangladesh UNU-WIDER Conference on Climate Change and Development Policy Nidhi Nagabhatla 28 th September 2012, Helsinki- Finland

What is Vulnerability ? Gradient of exposure and proneness to damage/disaster Residual situation after adapting to a risk situation (IPCC) Which Nations Are Most Vulnerable to Climate Change? British firm Maplecroft (top 10) : Bangladesh, India , Madagascar, Nepal, Mozambique, Philippines, Haiti, Afghanistan, Zimbabwe and Myanmar. ( 60% from Asia- S & SEA) Transforming Adaptive Capacity to Adaptation ? The way we respond and cope to change to the way it is required to

IPCC- Socioeconomic Scenarios 1. Demographics and development : total population, current and projected (2025) population density , urban population, coastal population. 2. Economics : per capita GDP, GDP distribution from agriculture, industry, other sectors, trends in annual GDP growth rate. 3. Land cover/land use : total land area, arable and cropped, pastured, forest and woodlands 4. Water : water resources per capita, annual allocations for different sectors viz . , domestic, industrial and agricultural use. 5. Agriculture : food production, irrigated/rain-fed areas, livestock’s, agricultural labor markets & production value chains 6. Energy : energy consumption (commercial/domestic), renewables, hydroelectric 7. Biodiversity : floral, faunal, avifaunal and marine diversity

First Segment Climate Change Monitoring

Scenarios for South Asia (adopted from Cruz et al 2007)

Pre Monsoonal Situation (MAM) 1870-2007 Drought Flood

Winter Rainfall (DJF)

Anamoly ( Rainfall) Seasonal Mean Rainfall (Obs) in mm (JJA) 150 200 250 300 350 Monsoonal Rainfall (JJA) -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 20 40 60 0 1870 1870 1875 1875 1880 1880 1885 1885 1890 1890 1895 1895 1900 1900 1905 1905 1910 1910 1915 1915 y = -0.0355x + 312.55 1920 1920 R² = 0.0035 1925 1925 y = -0.03x + 61.285 R² = 0.0025 1930 1930 1935 1935 1940 1940 1945 1945 1950 1950 JJA 1955 1955 1960 1960 1965 1965 Drought 1970 1970 1975 1975 1980 1980 1985 1985 Flood 1990 1990 1995 1995 2000 2000 2005 2005

Anamoly (Rainfall) Post Monsoon (SON) Seasonal Mean Rainfall (obs) in mm -60 -40 -20 20 40 60 80 ( (SON) 0 110 130 150 50 70 90 1870 1870 1875 1875 1880 1880 1885 1885 1890 1890 1895 1895 1900 1900 1905 1905 1910 1910 1915 1915 1920 1920 1925 1925 1930 1930 y = 0.0326x + 32.443 1935 y = 0.0326x - 61.179 1935 R² = 0.0042 1940 R² = 0.0042 1940 1945 1945 1950 1950 1955 1955 1960 1960 1965 1965 1970 1970 1975 1975 1980 1980 1985 1985 1990 1990 1995 1995 2000 2000 2005 2005

Temperature Trend : India ( T max) East Coast 37 DJF MAM JJA SON 1.5 o C 36 35 34 T(max) 0C 33 32 31 30 1.27 o C 29 28 27 1901 1906 1911 1916 1921 1926 1931 1936 1941 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2.0 Temprature (max) diifrence from the mean R² = 0.1053 MAM 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0

Temperature Trend : India ( T min) Tmin 0 C Tempratyre (min) diifrence from the 18 20 22 24 26 28 mean -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 1901 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 1904 1901 R² = 0.1146 1907 1904 1910 1907 1913 1910 1916 1913 1919 1916 DJF 1922 1919 DJF 1922 1925 1925 1928 1928 1931 1931 1934 1934 1937 1937 1940 1940 1943 MAM 1943 1946 1946 1949 1949 1952 1952 1955 1955 1958 1958 1961 1961 1964 JJA 1964 1967 1967 1970 1970 1973 1973 1976 1976 1979 1979 1982 SON 1982 1985 1985 1988 1988 1991 1991 1994 1994 1997 1997 2000 2000 0.17 0 C 0.97 o C 2003 2003

Normal 1952 1964 1960 1974 Monsoon years 1999 2005 1986 JJAS (MM)

OBS MME

Second Segment Climate Change Assessment Socioeconomic consequences of climate variability and its effect on natural/ managed systems

Case Study 1 : Climatic variability vis-a vis Fisheries in Bangladesh Why Bangaldesh ?

Global Vulnerability Profiling (Wheeler and Haddad, 2005) 40 Countries listed in the order of ranking with India stated as most vulnerable 35 Vulnerable Population in Millions 2008 2050 30 27 25 Of Top 20 Countries more than 50 % in South , South East and East Asia 20 15 13.2 10 5 0 Nigeria Indonesia Korea, Rep. Brazil Turkey Italy Thailand India Bangladesh China Philippines Vietnam Japan United States Egypt, Arab Rep. United Kingdom Myanmar Malaysia Germany Mozambique

Export value of global fish trade is: US$63 billion Facts ….[ in (2003), more than the combined ] value of net exports of rice, coffee, sugar and tea. ………………………………(FAO-UN) More Facts • Half of global fish trade comes from developing countries • Global consumption increased by 21% between 1992 and 2002 and increases further • Nearly 25% of the world's marine fish stocks are overexploited About 50% fully exploited (overfishing and increasing degradation of coastal, marine and freshwater ecosystems and habitats)

Total Inland Marine Leading to people migrating for work

DJF SON • Three Different time periods : MAM, SON and DJF • Date Used : Sea Wifs MAM • Temporal Span : 1998-2009 • Standard Trend : declining • Decline more pronounced in SON • (nearly half of the value at the start end of the temporal scale)

DJF SON Increasing trend during SON and DJF MAM

DJF SON Increasing trend during DJF and MAM SON shows a declining trend attributed to fresh water turbidity and influx MAM

A negative correlation exists between Chl- a and SST during SON and MAM, except in coastal zone

Case Study 2 : Climate Change and Human Migration Bangladesh

Highlights: Climate Shifts and Migration Flows • Currently more 3% of world population migrate for work • Stern (2007) estimates 150-200 million displaced by CC [Christian Aid (2007) reports 1 billion ] • Migration driven by ‘push and pull factors’ Push Pull  Country of origin  Country of destination  Political Instability  Demand for workers  Lack of economic growth and /employment opportunities  Access to resources  Lack of access to resources  Political Stability  Exposure to extreme climate events  Low vulnerability to CC (high vulnerability to CC)  Regulated or low population  Rate of population growth growth  Socio-economic condition

Disaster drives Migration : IDP’s and Refugees 6,000 12 Number of people dead('00) Total number of People Affected (millions) 5,000 5,000 10 4,000 8 3,000 6 2,000 4 1,400 1,000 2 110 30 2 0 0 Cyclone Bhola-Nov- Severe Cyclone-May Bangladesh Cyclone- Cyclone Sidr- Cyclone Alia-May- 1970. -1985 April-1991 November -2007 2009

Observation and Projection 50 % of the total population is projected to displace Estimated People displacement (million) 80 78 R² = 0.895 60 Total displacement by floods (millions) %of total population (estimated ) 50 63 68 60 40 People in millions 49 48 54 % 40 30 41 39 20 20 10 FLOOD FLOOD FLOOD FLOOD 0 0 2009 2010 2015 2020 Recorded and Estimated Projections for next 10 years after 2010

Spatial Distribution at the national level Ganges Sylhet Brahmaputra Rajashahi Khulna Dhaka 2008 Chittagong 1996 1983 Barisal 0 10 20 30 40 50 % of Agriculture Labour Households to total households Exposure to extreme events as a surrogate of ecological and biophysical vulnerability

10000 % Urban of the total Landless Total Households Urban Households 9000 % of the total landless households Rural Household Total Landless 100 % Rural of the total Landless 8000 Number of households (000) 90 80 7000 70 6000 60 50 5000 40 4000 30 3000 20 10 2000 0 Barisal Chittagong Dhaka Khulna Rajashahi Sylhet 1000 0 Barisal Chittagong Dhaka Khulna Rajashahi Sylhet Administrative Divisions Poverty as a surrogate of social vulnerability ( expressed as landless households)

Profiling Vulnerability Bangladesh 1(Low)-5 (high) 1(Low)-5 1(Low)-5 (high) 1(Low)-5 (high) (high) Provincial Exposure to Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity Ranking Divisions Extreme (Poverty) Climate Climate Events Vulnerability Barisal 4 4 2 5 Chittagong 4 3 2 4 Dhaka 2 1 4 2 Khulna 2 3 4 3 Rajashahi 1 5 5 1 Sylhet 5 1 1 4

Case Study 3 : Arecanut Agro-ecosystem banana of Wayanad, in Kerela rice

Administrative center : Kalpetta Wayanad Three main blocks Area : 2000 sq km Wayanad Panamaram Vellamunda Census 2011 Wayanad Population :816 558 Kerala Wayanad surrounds Western Ghats on the west 31

Temporal trend in rice : what do records say ? 32

Paddy (rice ) growth trends Paddy (rice) distribution trend in Wayanad Ten years paddy (rice) distribution trend in Kerala 33