Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment of Socio-Ecological Systems - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment of Socio-Ecological Systems (VASES): Part 1. Approach and Methods Hanoi 20 December 2016 Content 1. Starting point for EbA and Socio-ecological systems (SES) 2. Vulnerability Assessment steps 3.
Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed; the system’s sensitivity; and its adaptive capacity
Component Scope/Objective Ecosystem Profile Identify main ecosystem types, their area and condition; connectivity in the landscape; ecological processes; Ecosystem services important for local livelihoods, economy well-being, etc. Which are the key ecosystems to work on for EbA? Social Profile Overall socio-cultural, and political context patterns of poverty, ethnicity, labour, migration, gender issues. Which social groups and which types of livelihoods are most vulnerable? Where are these groups and these livelihoods found? Economic Profile What are the main sectors of the economy - contribution to employment, food production, tax revenue, GDP; what are the Key Economic Assets (KEA) - e.g. transport, energy and water infrastructure; what are the main development trends and drivers Methods and Tools Literature review, expert opinion, key informant interviews, focal group discussions;
Component Scope/Objective Tools/Methods SES Profile
Identifying, mapping and prioritising Socio-ecological Systems (SES) and Key Economic Assets (KEA) Understanding how many SES and KEAs there are in the province, where they are found, and how important they are Overlaying maps of ecosystems, social groups and economic activities, use of Google Earth and field visits. Iterative process requiring expert judgement of team members
Climate Profile and Impact Assessment:
Understanding climate pressures on socio-ecological systems and key economic assets – using 7 climate factors Identifying, understanding and ranking actual and potential impacts on socio-ecological systems and Key Economic Assets based on both exposure and sensitivity considerations ICEM CAM Methodology Climate Projections Literature review, expert
interviews, focal group discussions; group exercises
Adaptive Capacity Assessment:
Understanding capacity to make appropriate changes Identifying and understanding aspects of adaptive capacity at the provincial level – provincial institutions and planning systems Review of policy and planning processes and institutional capacity at the provincial level. Management of ecosystems for resilience at provincial level
Overall Vulnerability Assessment and EbA Identification
Overall vulnerability score for each SES and KEA; identify appropriate interventions to address key vulnerabilities Combine SES/KEA impact and adaptive capacity elements; identify EbA actions through expert knowledge, best practices, key informants, etc
Ecological Social Economic
Mountains > 700 m Kinh smallholders Paddy rice (irrigated or not)
Sub-tropical moist evergreen broad-leaf forest Coniferous forest Forest over limestone Caves, Streams and rivers Ethnic minority smallholders Upland rice/cassava/maize Hill Areas < 700 > 10 m Kinh SME commercial Field crops Tropical broad-leaf moist evergreen forest Forest over limestone Caves, Streams and rivers Kinh large scale enterprise Forest product gathering Lowland Coastal < 10 m State-owned enterprises Small-holder acacia River systems Foreign owned enterprise Commercial rubber Estuary mudflats + mangroves Industrial fruit crops Coastal Sandy Area/sand-dunes Livestock production Lagoons and lakes Shellfish gathering Inshore marine areas Fish + shrimp aquaculture Offshore marine areas Capture Fishery
Inland valley: along the valley
Dinh rivers Transition: Along Son, Ron river and transition from valley to hilly area Total area: 101,859 ha Three districts: Tuyen Hoa, Bo Trach and Le Thuy
Code No. SES Name Ecological Social Economic Climate/ Environment Rank Provider
Depend
Popu- lation Poverty Other Vulnerable Group direct GDP Future emphasis (SEDP) Land use % *<5%; ***>15% Labour used Base for Value Addi-tion Climate damage trends Neg Environ Impact 1+2 PA1 PA2 SUBTROPICAL FOREST >700 M, MOIST TROPICAL FOREST < 700M State SUF Management (Vu Quang) State SUF Management (Vu Quang, Ke Go) xxx xx x x
x xx 13.5 x xxx x
FPMB1 FPMB2 FPMB on subtropical forest >700m FPMB on moist trop forest< 700m xxx x x x x x x xxx 17.4 x xxx x
2 2b MOIST TROPICAL FOREST < 700M Kin/Ethnic minority smallholder field + tree crops x xx xx xx x xx xx xx 6.5 xx x xx x 8 2c Kinh commercial forestry on hill forest (Huong Son and Chuc A LLC) xx xx x x
xx
xx
5.5 x xx xx xx 14 2d Kinh smallholder inland valley paddy cultivation + tree crops (pine acacia, citrus, rubber, tea) xx xx xx x
xx xxx 15.3 xx xx xx xx 9 2e EM smallholder inland paddy + field crops + forest product collection xx xxx x x x x x x 0.0 x xx xx xx 30 2f Kinh commercial rubber plantations (Ha Tinh; Huong Khe) x x x x
xx x 4.5 x x xx xx 15
2g Kinh commercial livestock raising enterprises x xx x
xx x 0.0 x xx xx 16 3 3a COASTAL FLOODPLAIN Kinh smallholder lowland irrigated floodplain paddy rice cultivation x xxx xxx x
x xx 7.2 xx xx xx x 4 3b Kinh smallholder floodplain-hills transition: paddy rice + mixed farming, tree crops x xx xx x
x xx 9.8 x xx 5 4 4a INLAND FRESHWATER Kinh smallholder/commercial mixed freshwater aquaculture x xx x x
x x 4.0 x x x x 23 4b Kinh small holder freshwater capture fishery x xxx x x
x x 0.0 x x x x 24 5 5a ESTUARY Kinh commercial brackish water fish / shrimp cages and ponds x xx x
xx x 0.1 x x x xx 21 5b Kinh artisanal shell fish collecting x xx x x
x x 0.0 x x x 29 5c Kinh smallholder salt production
x x x x x 0.0 x xx xx 25 6 6a COASTAL SAND DUNE Kinh small holder vegetable gardening (oft combined with 7b) x xxx x x
x x 0.1 x xx x 26 6b Kinh smallholder livestock (cattle) raising x xx x x
x x 0.1 x x xx 28 6c Kinh smallholder freshwater fish ponds x xxx x x
x x 0.1 x xx x 27 6d Kinh commercial shrimp aquaculture x xx x
xxx x 0.1 x x xx xx 10 6e Kinh commercial and small enterprise beach tourism x xx x x
x x 0.0 x xx xx xx 22 7 7a MARINE Kinh artisanal and commercial offshore fishing (> 6 nm from coast. xx xxx x x
xxx x 0.0 x xx x x 13
Kinh artisanal inshore fishing (< 6 nm from coast) xx xxx xx xx
x xx (11.8) xx xx xx xx 11 8 8a KEY ASSETS Commercial and state water management infrastructure (dams, weirs, saline intrusion barrages, irrigation canals) xxx xxx xx x
xxx xx ?? xx xxx xx xx 1 8b commercial mining - iron ore ,quartz, clay, sand, titanium x x x
xx x 0.8 xx xx x xx 20 8c state transport and associated infrastructure x xx xxx x x xx* xx x ?? xx xxx xx xx 12 8d commercial coal-fired energy production facilities and distribution infrastructure
xxx x x xx* xx x 0.0 xx xxx x xx 18 8e state managed special economic and industrial zones (coastal)
xx
xxx x 0.3 xx xxx x xxx 7 8f state managed special economic and industrial zones (montane) x xx xx
x xx x 3.0 x xx x x 17 8g State port and river transportation infrastructure
x
xx xxx x 0.0 x xx xx x 19 8h urban and rural settlement, industry, services x xx xxx x x xxx xx x 1.2 x x x xx 2
SES CODE Rainfall change (6-8) in 2050 (%) Rainfall change (6-8) in 2100 (%) Rainfall change (3-5) in 2050 ( (%) Rainfall change (3-5) in 2100 (%) Rainfall change (9-11) in 2050 Rainfall change (9-11) in 2100 MI N MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN 1a 4.9 5.0 5.0 9.4 9.5 9.5
3.9 7.4 7.6 7.5 2a 4.4 5.4 4.7 8.5 10.3 9.0
2.4 3.0 2.6 4.6 5.8 5.1 3a 4.6 4.7 4.7 8.8 9.0 8.9
2.8 2.8 2.8 5.4 5.4 5.4 4a 3.9 5.4 4.8 7.4 10.3 9.2
3.2 3.4 3.4 6.1 6.6 6.5 5a 3.4 4.7 4.2 6.5 9.0 8.0
3.2 4.2 3.5 6.1 8.1 6.7 5c 4.4 6.1 5.3 8.5 11.7 10.1 -5.1 -5.0
3.1 3.3 3.2 6.1 6.4 6.2 6a 4.5 4.8 4.6 8.7 9.2 8.9
2.6 2.8 2.7 4.9 5.3 5.2 6b 4.3 6.4 5.2 8.3 12.3 10.0 -4.8 -4.6
3.0 3.3 3.2 5.8 6.4 6.2 8a 4.4 6.0 5.0 8.4 11.4 9.7
3.0 4.6 7.1 5.7 9a 4.7 5.5 5.1 9.0 10.5 9.8
2.8 5.0 5.8 5.3 9b 4.4 5.7 4.9 8.4 11.0 9.4
2.7 4.6 6.0 5.1 9c 4.4 5.8 5.1 8.5 11.1 9.8
2.9 4.6 7.6 5.6 11a 4.9 5.0 4.9 9.3 9.6 9.5
2.9 5.4 5.8 5.6 10c 4.1 4.4 4.3 7.9 8.4 8.2
3.2 3.4 3.3 6.2 6.5 6.3 Wa 4.3 6.3 5.1 8.3 12.1 9.8
3.0 4.6 7.7 5.8
1 Very Low 2 Low 3 Medium 4 High 5 Very High 5 Very High Medium Medium High Very High Very High 4 High Low Medium Medium High Very High 3 Medium Low Medium Medium High Very High 2 Low Low Low Medium Medium High 1 Very Low Very Low Low Low Medium High
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Impact Adaptive Capacity 1- Very Low
Inconvenience (days)
2- Low
Short disruption to system function (weeks)
3- Medium
Medium term disruption to system function (months)
3- High
Long term damage to system property
(years)
5- Very High
Loss of life, livelihood or system integrity
1- Very Low
Very limited institutional capacity and no access to technical or financial resources
Medium Medium High Very High Very High 2- Low
Limited institutional capacity and limited access to technical and financial resources
Low Medium Medium High Very High 3- Medium
Growing institutional capacity and access to technical or financial resources
Low Medium Medium High Very High 4- High
Sound institutional capacity and good access to technical and financial resources
Low Low Medium Medium High 5- Very High
Exceptional institutional capacity and abundant access to technical and financial resources
Very Low Low Low Medium High
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S z e e P D D 2 2 2 2 S z e P O D £ | | |
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Sand dune
nshore capture fisheries up to 6 nautical miles from coast/depth of 50m Coastal protection forest small scale vegetable growing on sand pond aquaculture
Inshore fishery for small pelagics – squid, mackerel, anchovy, sardine, etc – over 3,000 boats <50 H.P. Large sandy areas and also coastal protection forest has been converted to intensive white shrimp - 3 crops/year and 10-15 tons/crop Casuarina planted since 1960s to control moving sand, as a windbreak and to maintain fresh water resources along coast 2015: more than 900 ha of vegetables in sandy areas, income 70 m VND/ha/year
97 bnVND for new planting coastal protection forest in Quảng Bình province New planting in hot sandy at Lệ Thủy. 2016 Coastal erosion in Đức Trạch commune 2016 Forest fire in Bảo Ninh commune 2015 Poor coastal protection forest in Quảng Ninh
Ngu Thuy Bac Commune, Le Thuy District
FPMB on sand, with bare sand areas Vegetable growing on sandy areas Smallholder/commercial shrimp aquaculture Freshwater pond fish aquaculture Artisanal inshore capture fishery NTB fishing Villages: Trung Hoa Tan Thuan Tan Hai Bac Hua
– livelihoods inventory , what how many people, incl migration/remittances (FGD, ranking) – Key ecosystem resources, services = ecosystem dependency of livelihoods (Transect walk) – Vulnerable groups (wealth ranking) – Climate pattern, livelihood activities – (seasonal calendar) – Development history, trends, pressures incl land use; climate event/change history, trends, pressures; ecosystem responses and coping/adaptation (timeline)
– climate change in VN and what to expect here, integrating with community perceptions – Village land use and climate hazards (map) – Vulnerability matrix – Institutional support for CCA/EbA (Venn diagram)
– existing village/commune development plans (climate proofing) – Review participatory assessment
– Existing adaptive capacity and coping – Solutions, preferred solutions (EbA/non-EbA) – Actions, Resources (people, materials, VND) – Timelines
CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS (2050 & 2100) Exposure Explanation (E ) Sensitivity Explanation (S) Impact Adaptive Capacity Explanation (AC) Vulnerability TEMPERATURE
Hot season hotter and longer; Summer av.max
degree C in 2050, 3.5 degree in 2100 3 Both VQNP and KGNR will be exposed to these changes 3 Species close to the limit of their temperature tolerance will be most at risk – especially those already only found at higher elevations 3 3 PAs management in place, but no planning for long- term survival of species impacted by
3 Number of Dry days increase 17 in 2050, 15 in 2100, Number of hot days > 35oC increase 23 24 in 2050, 34 - 35 days in 2100 3 Both VQNP and KGNR will be exposed to these changes 3 Increased number of dry days and very hot days will increase risk of forest fire 3 3 PAs have in place management but need more resources for future forest fire management 3 Temperature will increase faster and earlier in Spring
3
Both VQNP and KGNR will be exposed to these changes 3 This may affect phenology
behavior of many species 3 3 little understanding
might happen/how to respond to them 3 PRECIPITATION Rainfall in Summer will increase 5% in 2050, 9
RISK 3 Both VQNP and KGNR will be exposed to these changes 2 increased erosion and landslides in some places. Extended waterlogging of the soil problem for some plant and tree species 3 3 There is not much that can be done beyond normal management of the area 3 Dry season will be drier, spring rainfall decrease 5% in 2050, 10% in 2100 - DROUGHT RISK 3 Both VQNP and KGNR will be exposed to these changes 3 This will also add to the forest fire risk, together with the increase in dry days and very hot days (above) 3 3 more resources will be needed for forest fire management in the future 3 STORM/ TYPHOON Higher speed/stronger Difficult to forecast the frequency/season 2 further inland from the cost VQNP will be less exposed KGNR is a bit closer to coast a bit more exposed 2 Some tree species may be damaged by storms 2 3 There is not much that can be done about this beyond normal management
3
SEA LEVEL RISE Increased 3mm/year in last 20 years 1 Both VQNP and KGNR are sufficiently inland and elevated 1
1 5 There is no need to take any adaptive action on this issue 1
Imp Rank Socio-Ecological System Vulnerability Score
(7 factor mean)
Rank 1 Water Infrastructure 3.3 2 2 Urban and rural settlements, industry and services 3.3 2 3 SUF – VQNP and Kego NR 2.7 8 4 Kinh smallholder lowland irrigated paddy rice 3.4 1 5 Kinh small-holder/commercial transition area rice and mixed farming systems 3.3 2
Imp Rank Socio-Ecological System Vulnerability Score
(7 factor mean)
Rank 6 Protection Forest on coastal and terrestrial upland areas 2.7 8 7 Coastal Special Economic Zone (Vung Ang) 2.6 10 8 Kinh and Ethnic minority upland field and tree crops 3.3 2 9 Kinh smallholder Inland valleys paddy rice and tree crops 3.3 2 10 Commercial Shrimp Aquaculture
3.1 7
Imp Rank SES Vulnerability Score
(7 factor mean)
Rank 1 Kinh smallholder coastal floodplain irrigated paddy rice cultivation 3.4 2 2 Kinh smallholder mixed paddy and tree crops 3.4 2 3 Phong Nha-Ke Bang NP and WHS 2.7 9 4 Lowland Moist TRF State Forest Enterprise 2.7 9 5 Kinh small-holder/ commercial shrimp aquaculture,sand dunes 3.3 5
Imp Rank SES Vulnerability Score
(7 factor mean)
Rank 6 Forest PMB on coastal sand dunes and sand 2.9 6 7 Kinh inshore capture fishermen (estuary to 6 km
2.9 6 8 Upland Ethnic minority swidden cultivation 4.0 1 9 Hilly forest commercial rubber estates 2.8 8 10 Irrigation/ hydropower reservoirs and related infrastructure 3.3 4
manage manage
Socio-economic environment
manage
Implementation of EbA action
storms through planting of wind-breaks
through improved watershed management, using longer rotations in forest plantations, and stopping further conversion of natural forest
(including climate change considerations) in the area supplied by each reservoir
releases) to ensure environmental flows in downstream rivers
electricity and reduce evaporation losses
more roadside trees, reduce heat island effects/heat stress impacts
approach – allow flood waters to pass through settlement - streams, canals and flood water drains while causing reduced damage to better flood-adapted housing/ buildings; create ponds/lakes to absorb large amounts of water; relocate most important buildings away from the lowest lying areas, etc.
urban wetlands from being filled in for development
(especially around workers housing areas) to reduce heat trap/heat island effects and reduce heat stress impacts of increased temperature and increased number of very hot days
waters to pass through the SEZ in canals and flood water drains while causing reduced damage to better flood-adapted workers’ housing and other buildings; create ponds and lakes within the SEZ that can absorb large amounts of water;
Upland terrestrial protection forests - improve watershed function and other environmental services by:
new planting
enrichment planting of old plantations
establishment of native species tree nurseries and provinding training
enhance nutrient cycling and soil formation
and soil fertility management practices using “S.A.L.T.” contour planting, mulching, alley cropping, etc.
supplement swidden crops e.g. shade grown coffee
management groups to for sustainable harvesting of NTFPs for income generation
value NTFPs using varieties suitable to future climate conditions
watercourses for domestic water supply in settlements away from river.
being done (SRI Rice, shifting crop calendar, ratoon rice, SNV work on sustainable cassava, etc.)
species where appropriate
slopes (contour planting, mulching, etc)
crops that are better adapted to the future climate conditions and will also increase diversity of insects and animal pollinators in the landscape
Avoid storm and wind damage to rubber plantations by
work already being done (SRI Rice, ratoon rice, shifting crop calendar, etc.)
more valuable species where appropriate in some rain-fed areas
water from upstream SESs on which irrigated paddy SES depends, protect vital reservoir infrastructure through improved watershed management
some sections of rivers) to combat salinization
Natural woods in Vĩnh Sơn villages, Quảng Đông commune Natural woods in Trung Tân village, Sen Thủy commune Natural woods in
SES EbA recommendations _______________________ Coastal Protection Forests on sandy areas
management arrangements between PFMB and local communities
native species for sandy areas
planting of existing casuarina and acacia plantations
vegetation around ponds for physical protection, shade
supply/condition, assess future demand (tourism aquaculture, vegetables) develop management plan
shrimp production
management systems with local communities
restore coral reefs and sea- grass that provide spawning, nursery and feeding grounds supporting fisheries productivity
species to ocean changes
including ethnic minorities – focus assistance on their needs first
and Fisheries use largest areas of the provinces and employ the most people – but also offer the most significant oppoerunities for EbA